Pax Americana vs Pax Sinica vs Multipolar World

[urbanoid]

I think they're going to be wary of Algeria either way. The Algerians know which side their bread is buttered on though, I don't expect anything too stupid from them.

[sunday]

There is a lot of bad blood between them, since some decades ago.

[urbanoid]

https://twitter.com/MichalFellaPL/status/1693726219211071783

[Josh]

14 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

https://twitter.com/MichalFellaPL/status/1693726219211071783

The yuan becoming a global currency was never in the cards and I don't think even Strannik considered that a possibility, for reasons in that link and others similarly involving control. China will never let the yuan be a freely traded currency, so Do Not Pass Go. The only thing that sounded like it had a hope of truly dislodging the dollar in a noticeable way was a gold standard BRICS currency, and even then, the bulk of world trade would still likely use dollars or Euros or yen just because most of the industrialized world has no interest in increasing China or Russia's power at the expense of the US.

[Strannik]

BRICS Update:

- Xi: "... International rules must be written jointly, rather than dictated by those with the strongest muscles or the loudest voice!.. We need to accelerate the BRICS's expansion process."

- Naledi Pandor, SA FM: "we have agreed on the matter of #BRICS expansion"

Announcements will be made shortly.

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Strannik

[Strannik]

BRICS have agreed to admit six more countries.

The following countries will be full members of BRICS effective of 1/1/2024:  

🇦🇷 Argentina
🇪🇬 Egypt
🇪🇹 Ethiopia
🇮🇷 Iran
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
🇦🇪 UAE

Edited August 24, 2023 by Strannik

[Strannik]

Lula: BRICS initiates 'working group' to explore Trade Reference Currency ("which would not replace our national currency")

[Strannik]

This shows that a key leverage the US had versus Iran - Washington being the gatekeeper for who is in and who is out of the community of nations - is now almost completely lost. This is a leverage the US had during the earlier JCPOA negotiations.

As the world moves away from unipolarity, the US is also losing the GateKeeper power. No one single state can any longer decide who is in the community of Nations and who is a pariah.

This does not mean that Iran no longer needs a deal with the US to lift sanctions, or that those sanctions are meaningless. Rather, it means that the US has less leverage than before in such a negotiation. Because new options are opening up for Iran. 

What the US controls, however, is who is a member of the ill-defined "rules-based order." Which increasingly is becoming nations who seek to sustain American unipolarity and resist the global shifts in power. The RBO is turning into a bloc rather than the governing system. 

Fascinating that the UAE and Saudi are also joining. That makes it difficult for the US to portray it as an anti-American grouping. As my colleague @globalsarang points out, after all, the US had troops in those countries.

 

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, Strannik said:

Fascinating that the UAE and Saudi are also joining. That makes it difficult for the US to portray it as an anti-American grouping. As my colleague @globalsarang points out, after all, the US had troops in those countries.

Had or still has?

[Josh]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

Had or still has?

Definitely still in Al Dhafra. Don’t think there’s a significant KSA presence now.

[Strannik]

With these new members BRICS+ will:

- control 40% of world oil reserves

- control 50% of world oil production 

- become the biggest oil importing trading block

- has the largest oil importer in their ranks (China)

This and increasing trade in local currencies will be putting pressure on petro$ and then the block's "reference currency" will come.

$ of course is here with us to stay, but with time (and considering the fact that US will  have to inflate their debts away) it will be relegated to same role as British pound had (sic)

Edited August 25, 2023 by Strannik

[JWB]

BRICS cannot sustain. China likes to shoot Russians and Indians too much.

[Strannik]

Saudi Arabia is the most interesting case here.  US is still trying to make a three way deal (SA/US/IL) - a good article describing who wants what 👇 but looks like SA wants to sit on both chairs at the very least if the deal pans out, or to hedge if it won't.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/08/22/a-saudi-israeli-peace-deal-who-wants-what-and-why/ad09133e-40c2-11ee-9677-53cc50eb3f77_story.html

Edited August 24, 2023 by Strannik

[seahawk]

14 hours ago, Strannik said:

With these new members BRICS+ will:

- control 40% of world oil reserves

- become the biggest oil importing trading block

- has the largest oil importer in their ranks (China)

This and increasing trade in local currencies will be putting pressure on petro$ and then the block's "reference currency" will come.

$ of course is here with us to stay, but with time (and considering the fact that US will  have to inflate their debts away) it will be relegated to same role as British pound had (sic)

This extension is the official end of western hegemony and the rise of new world order.

[Strannik]

21 hours ago, Strannik said:

With these new members BRICS+ will:

- control 40% of world oil reserves

- control 50% of world oil production 

- become the biggest oil importing trading block

- has the largest oil importer in their ranks (China)

This and increasing trade in local currencies will be putting pressure on petro$ and then the block's "reference currency" will come.

$ of course is here with us to stay, but with time (and considering the fact that US will  have to inflate their debts away) it will be relegated to same role as British pound had (sic)

And for those who value Peter Zeihan - here is his invaluable opinion:

 

[Josh]

I have to say the inclusion of Argentina and Iran doesn’t make for a very impressive roster. I wonder what drove the country selection.

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

I have to say the inclusion of Argentina and Iran doesn’t make for a very impressive roster. I wonder what drove the country selection.

As far as Argentina goes, my guess it's Brazil's doing in hope to improve their situation.  Remains to be seen.

Iran produces 4+% of world's oil and is a perfect candidate for this economic block as a lot of it's needs can be fulfilled by China and Russia and China can take all it's oil.

 

[Josh]

3 hours ago, Strannik said:

As far as Argentina goes, my guess it's Brazil's doing in hope to improve their situation.  Remains to be seen.

Iran produces 4+% of world's oil and is a perfect candidate for this economic block as a lot of it's needs can be fulfilled by China and Russia and China can take all it's oil.

 

Not sure what need Russia fills with regards to Iran, outside maybe some day providing the MiG-35s it promised.

[Strannik]

10 minutes ago, Josh said:

Not sure what need Russia fills with regards to Iran, outside maybe some day providing the MiG-35s it promised.

Food.  Weapon systems such as, but not limited to, Su-35s (which I suppose you meant).  Nuclear energy.  And much more.

[BansheeOne]

So, even more of the same.

On 7/21/2023 at 11:04 PM, BansheeOne said:

BRICS:

Non-Aligned Movement:

G20:

G77:

[sunday]

10 hours ago, Strannik said:

As far as Argentina goes, my guess it's Brazil's doing in hope to improve their situation.  Remains to be seen.

Iran produces 4+% of world's oil and is a perfect candidate for this economic block as a lot of it's needs can be fulfilled by China and Russia and China can take all it's oil.

 

Both Argentina and Iran are oil producer countries.

[Strannik]

Dedollarization update (from using a dollar to local currencies):  ASEAN member countries are developing an interconnected QR code payment system that aims to promote use of local currencies: - I wonder why?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Vietnam-Philippines-and-Brunei-to-join-cross-border-QR-payment-scheme

 

[Strannik]

Iran awards $2.7bn airport project to Chinese contractor.  The payment will be oil.

https://theiranproject.com/blog/2023/08/28/iran-awards-2-7bn-airport-project-to-chinese-contractor/

[sunday]

https://bnn.network/politics/austrian-economist-proposes-division-of-brazil-into-five-states-amidst-brics-partnership-with-russia/

On possible retaliation against BRICS members, another Austrian, moustacheless this time, plays geopolitics

Unless Herr Fehlinger is quickly disauthorized, made to resign, and retire to some monastery, Putin just got confirmation that the current rules of Western World want a balcanization in Russia.

Edited August 28, 2023 by sunday

[bojan]

That piece of excrement in vague humanoid shape?

BTW, Milica Rakic for those unaware.

Edited August 29, 2023 by bojan