Patriot vs Kinzhal?

[Dawes]

Some media reports are saying that a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile was intercepted by a Ukrainian-launched Patriot missile. I wasn't aware that Patriot had any capability against hypersonic weapons so I take this claim with a healthy dose of skepticism. Thoughts/opinions?

[bojan]

Very suspicious. Ukrainians first denied it, then said they did it. What is claimed to be warhead looks more like casing of BETAB-500ShP concrete piercing bomb.

[lucklucky]

Might be a supersonic missile not an hypersonic one.

[TrustMe]

Maybe it's to improve moral. During the Gulf War 1991 the US Army reported that it had intercepted all the Scuds that Saddam fired at Saudia Arabia and Israel as disinformation whilist hiding the knowledge that the Patriot was useless against them.

[Burncycle360]

Keep in mind a lot of missiles are technically hypersonic in that they exceed mach 5, but often only at some point in their flight (ie, right at burnout)  so the word gets bandied about the same way everything with tracks is a "tank"

 

Kinzhal is just an air launched Iskander. It's a quasi ballistic missile IIRC so it can do some trajectory shaping but it's not going to be traveling anywhere near as fast on terminal approach as it did on burnout and it's nothing like the hypersonic glide vehicles making the headlines.

Edited May 6 by Burncycle360

[shep854]

More recent Patriot variants have limited ABM capability, so depending on the Patriot launched, it's quite possible.

[jmsaari]

The effective defended area of a SAM system is going to be very small vs something that fast but provided the Patriot happened to be sited near the target, i can't see any reason why a PAC-2GEM or PAC-3 wouldn't be able to intercept a Kinzhal. Prob S-300V also,  with some luck perhaps even IRIS-T SLM/SLX, ealier Patriots or S-300P variants for that matter... the effectively defended footprint does get very small though and Ukraine is a big country with what, is it now 2 fire units of Patriot, or what''s the current situation?

[Dawes]

Sounds like a powerful laser might be the most effective answer to that threat.

[shep854]

Apparently the Russians and Ukrainians were in agreement on the importance of that particular target...

[Josh]

Not enough info to draw any conclusions. Pictures look rather suspect, as was the "no it wasn't/yes it was" way it was handled. From a technical standpoint MIM-104 should be able to intercept, but generally only under fairly ideal conditions.

[glenn239]

12 hours ago, Josh said:

Not enough info to draw any conclusions. Pictures look rather suspect, as was the "no it wasn't/yes it was" way it was handled. From a technical standpoint MIM-104 should be able to intercept, but generally only under fairly ideal conditions.

I would have expected the Russians to have issued a denial by now if the Ukrainian claims were false?

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

I would have expected the Russians to have issued a denial by now if the Ukrainian claims were false?

I've not noticed them confirm/deny shootdowns, and certainly there's probably a lot of erroneous Ukrainian claims. But I have really been keeping track.

[bojan]

IIRC Fighterbomber channel, who generally knows what is going on in RuAF stated there was no use of Kinzal at that time period. Ofc, grain of salt.

[Yama]

AIUI, official statement was only that they shot down a "ballistic missile" and on UkrAF related Telegram channel it was claimed to be Kinzhal.

I don't see it completely impossible, after all Kinzhal is basically air-launched Iskander: it's faster on cruise stage, but terminal velocity probably isn't Mach 10. Still, I would see it bit unlikely, as engagement for any missile-radar combo Ukrainians are known to have is very short, and Ukrainians likely don't have dedicated ballistic missile detection radars.

[RETAC21]

On 5/6/2023 at 7:33 PM, Dawes said:

Some media reports are saying that a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile was intercepted by a Ukrainian-launched Patriot missile. I wasn't aware that Patriot had any capability against hypersonic weapons so I take this claim with a healthy dose of skepticism. Thoughts/opinions?

This analysis makes more sense, it was a P-800 Oniks, ground-launched?

 

[Yama]

Hmm, so their argument is that the September mystery crash was actually Yakhont, not Kinzhal, and the Kiev fall was thus also Yakhont? I don't know, the nosecones seem different... 🤨

[alejandro_]

Some links with diagrams comparing Kinzhal and remains.
 

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1656356021768716289
https://twitter.com/MoneyMasterGuru/status/1656360081028702208

https://twitter.com/MihajlovicMike/status/1656394688486572033

[glenn239]

On 5/8/2023 at 11:54 AM, Josh said:

I've not noticed them confirm/deny shootdowns, and certainly there's probably a lot of erroneous Ukrainian claims. But I have really been keeping track.

Took a while, but a denial was issued today.  They claim the Patriot can't engage a Kinzhal.

[shep854]

A pretty good overview, despite 'Capt HIMARS' as video filler. 😛 

Also, note that blunt warheads under pointed windscreens go back to 20th century AP shells...

 

 

[crazyinsane105]

At this point, there is no conclusive evidence that points towards one side versus the other. What we have are claims that ballistic missiles were not used, then they were used, and indeed shot down, and a picture of a warhead that almost no independent military analyst can verify is actually a Kinzal. Maybe it actually is one, maybe not, who knows.

People will believe the Ukrainian side if they are pro-Ukrainian, or pro-Russian if they are such. Those in the middle will be skeptical of Ukrainian claims simply because their outlandish claim of intercepting 95% of everything Russia has fired at them makes this specific one not trustworthy (especially when they issued a denial statement at first). At the same time, we can't completely rule it out either. 

Then the US admission that the Russians were specifically targeting the Patriot battery. Why the Russians would fire a single missile towards an anti-missile system is beyond me, as saturation attacks will result in higher chances of success.

Basically, there are a lot more questions than answers at the moment. 

 

Edited May 13 by crazyinsane105

[Stuart Galbraith]

7 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

At this point, there is no conclusive evidence that points towards one side versus the other. What we have are claims that ballistic missiles were not used, then they were used, and indeed shot down, and a picture of a warhead that almost no independent military analyst can verify is actually a Kinzal. Maybe it actually is one, maybe not, who knows.

People will believe the Ukrainian side if they are pro-Ukrainian, or pro-Russian if they are such. Those in the middle will be skeptical of Ukrainian claims simply because their outlandish claim of intercepting 95% of everything Russia has fired at them makes this specific one not trustworthy (especially when they issued a denial statement at first). At the same time, we can't completely rule it out either. 

Then the US admission that the Russians were specifically targeting the Patriot battery. Why the Russians would fire a single missile towards an anti-missile system is beyond me, as saturation attacks will result in higher chances of success.

Basically, there are a lot more questions than answers at the moment. 

 

Because they dont have many missiles, and were so arrogant as to believe their own propaganda that it was unstoppable?

Hubris is not a new human emotion, look what happened in 1912. 'Well this ship is unsinkable, so..'

Edited May 13 by Stuart Galbraith

[sunday]

8 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

At this point, there is no conclusive evidence that points towards one side versus the other. What we have are claims that ballistic missiles were not used, then they were used, and indeed shot down, and a picture of a warhead that almost no independent military analyst can verify is actually a Kinzal. Maybe it actually is one, maybe not, who knows.

People will believe the Ukrainian side if they are pro-Ukrainian, or pro-Russian if they are such. Those in the middle will be skeptical of Ukrainian claims simply because their outlandish claim of intercepting 95% of everything Russia has fired at them makes this specific one not trustworthy (especially when they issued a denial statement at first). At the same time, we can't completely rule it out either. 

Then the US admission that the Russians were specifically targeting the Patriot battery. Why the Russians would fire a single missile towards an anti-missile system is beyond me, as saturation attacks will result in higher chances of success.

Basically, there are a lot more questions than answers at the moment. 

 

Pretty much this.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Though the US DOD have confirmed they believe it was indeed a Kinzhal. So there is that. And of course if the DOD had said that it certainly was NOT a Kinzhal, everyone instantly would have accepted it.

[crazyinsane105]

37 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Though the US DOD have confirmed they believe it was indeed a Kinzhal. So there is that. And of course if the DOD had said that it certainly was NOT a Kinzhal, everyone instantly would have accepted it.

Would DoD be willing to throw their Ukrainian allies under the bus though? And are you suggesting that this would be the first time the US has lied about the capability of Patriot missile system when in fact, it’s done so a few times already? 
 

It just adds to the noise, that’s all. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

39 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Would DoD be willing to throw their Ukrainian allies under the bus though? And are you suggesting that this would be the first time the US has lied about the capability of Patriot missile system when in fact, it’s done so a few times already? 
 

It just adds to the noise, that’s all. 

They already have, remember when they refused to endorse the Ukrainian claims that the missile that landed in Poland was Russian? In fact they claimed the missile was a Ukrainian one, which it probably was, and wholly ignored another missile which few past Warsaw that surely was not.

If the Americans are endorsing this, its because they clearly believe it. And its not as if its that much of an achievement, shooting down a missile directly pointed at the battery, and taking several missiles to bring it down. It rings true. If it was a propaganda effort, it would be a one shot wonderkill.