US Finances and its Consequences for Social Policy and Military Spending

[Josh]

5 hours ago, Rick said:

All of what is being discussed about governmental finances; past, present, and future,  has been verified and will be so again in the Bible, specifically the Book of Revelation.  I wouldn't trouble yourself to go very deep into the details and nuances of this prophetic book, but it is an eye opener into what was written long ago and what is happening now. 

For the U.S., we are seeing this in the actions of one of the close associates of the "Whore of Babylon," the Democratic Party, the syphilitic chancre on and in the politics of our once great nation. 

 

[Strannik]

5 minutes ago, Josh said:

 

All we need (in addition to other highjacks) is a Bible thumpers vs Satanists (even in jest) flame war here 🙄. 

You are on notice of my MAD response to your fav topics  

Edited October 5, 2023 by Strannik

[FALightFighter]

On 10/5/2023 at 1:15 AM, Josh said:

The other problem is that just like China, a U.S. depression would not occur in a vacuum. Actually what I think is more probable is that either China or the US hits the wall, and then that brings down the other one. And of course that ruins everyone else as well, since that would be half the global economy.
 

But it is not the case that either nation could have a thriving economy while the other crashed…they, and the world, are linked together too closely for any meaningful decoupling.

Oh, I think that a decoupling will be painful for everyone. But I think that Zeihan makes a pretty good case that the U.S. could establish a pretty solid, non-globalized economy (maybe linked to Scandinavia, UK, Australia, Taiwan and Japan, but not completely globalized) in a way that most other countries cannot, for a variety of demographic and geographic reasons. Your assessment of his logic may vary, I find him persuasive.

[Josh]

33 minutes ago, FALightFighter said:

Oh, I think that a decoupling will be painful for everyone. But I think that Zeihan makes a pretty good case that the U.S. could establish a pretty solid, non-globalized economy (maybe linked to Scandinavia, UK, Australia, Taiwan and Japan, but not completely globalized) in a way that most other countries cannot, for a variety of demographic and geographic reasons. Your assessment of his logic may vary, I find him persuasive.

Well I would agree that the US would be in a better position to organize an economic block that China, after a painful decoupling. The US is less dependent on trade and geographically has a much better position. But any decoupling over almost any time scale is going to be painful for both and at this point an economic crash in one almost certainly affects the other the same way. In 2008 China largely avoided economic damage with huge stimulus to infrastructure projects; they  already are over invested in infrastructure and have run up about as much debt as the US in record time. Neither country's economy could withstand a large global downturn, whatever the casue.

[Strannik]

Starting in 2020 China had shifted investments from RE to Industries

 

[Strannik]

Inflation is over aka Paul Krugman became a comedian.

 

[Strannik]

Why America is all out of munitions.

Basically comes down to a responsible financial management in Pentagon (I know, feature, not a bug  ) so posting here:

“we have a trillion dollar defense budget, but there are just two people in the Department of Defense who look at mergers in the defense base. You couldn’t staff the morning shift of a small coffee shop with that”

https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why-america-is-out-of-ammunition

Edited October 22, 2023 by Strannik

[Strannik]

Meanwhile Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the surge in longer-term bond yields reflects a strong US economy, not the jump in government borrowing 🤣.

 

[Rick]

On 10/5/2023 at 11:43 AM, Josh said:

 

Only temporarily. We win in the end.  

[Josh]

11 hours ago, Rick said:

Only temporarily. We win in the end.  

Assuming either side exists at all, which I personally doubt.

[Strannik]

Public service announcement: US debt interest reaches One Trillion $

 

 

[glenn239]

Add it to the list of Biden-era avoidable disasters.....

[Strannik]

18 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Add it to the list of Biden-era avoidable disasters.....

There is nothing avoidable there... at least not in a scope of any single presidency.

[Strannik]

Moody's Cuts USA's Aaa Rating Outlook To 'Negative'

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

Moody's Cuts USA's Aaa Rating Outlook To 'Negative'

Ironically because a bunch of MAGA republicans who are all about reducing debt are holding the US credit rating hostage, rather than the underlying debt.

[Strannik]

18 minutes ago, Josh said:

Ironically because a bunch of MAGA republicans who are all about reducing debt are holding the US credit rating hostage, rather than the underlying debt.

No party is serious about that.  It will go on until it will blow up.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, Strannik said:

No party is serious about that.  It will go on until it will blow up.

I’m not arguing that, but one party is making it worse for the sake of performance art rather than making it better.

[Strannik]

11 hours ago, Strannik said:

Moody's Cuts USA's Aaa Rating Outlook To 'Negative'

Reasons for the cut:

1. Downside risks to U.S. fiscal strength have increased

2. Fiscal deficits to remain very large

3. Debt affordability to be significantly weakened

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

I’m not arguing that, but one party is making it worse for the sake of performance art rather than making it better.

Trump handed Biden a viable portfolio on the debt and deficit.  Biden proceeded to make things much worse.

[Strannik]

Record level debts

 

[Rick]

On 10/28/2023 at 5:46 PM, Josh said:

Assuming either side exists at all, which I personally doubt.

Read Titus. 

[Strannik]

"Sudden" influx of articles in fin media concerned about lack of UST buyers 

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/where-have-all-the-foreign-buyers-gone-for-u-s-treasury-debt-3db75625

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-11-17-2023/card/foreign-investors-can-t-keep-up-with-surging-treasury-supply-0XOw1IoZxT6qrUuAKAjt

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-13/beware-the-new-treasury-buyers-sparking-fear-5-is-just-a-start

[Strannik]

"...market is probably underestimating: that we're not going to quite make as much progress on inflation as people hope, and there's not going to be quite as much room for Fed easing as people hope. "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-29/summers-says-investors-probably-underestimating-inflation-risk?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter

[Strannik]

Remember when middle class was considered a backbone of America?  Well it's in a sorry state now.

1971 - 61% of U.S. adults were considered middle class.

 2021 -  it's just 50%.

The top 1% now holds more wealth than all of the middle class.

 

[Strannik]

This explains constant moaning of libdem media and pundits a la Krugman about stlilly unwashed masses seeing inflation when there is none - just because you cooked the books it doesn't make the issues go away - if US had kept calculating CPI in the same way as in the 1970s, inflation last year reached 18%...