urbanoid Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Affordability or simply abundance of domestic options? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Ive always assumed its because they dont believe the outside world exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 (edited) 4 minutes ago, urbanoid said: Affordability or simply abundance of domestic options? That's what responders say. And domestic travel is not very affordable either: Over half of those surveyed (54 percent) say they’ve visited 10 states or fewer. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lealane/2019/05/02/percentage-of-americans-who-never-traveled-beyond-the-state-where-they-were-born-a-surprise/ Edited July 24 by Strannik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbanoid Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 7 minutes ago, Strannik said: That's what responders say. And domestic travel is not very affordable either: Over half of those surveyed (54 percent) say they’ve visited 10 states or fewer. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lealane/2019/05/02/percentage-of-americans-who-never-traveled-beyond-the-state-where-they-were-born-a-surprise/ Now let's see... Quote Almost 40 percent of European citizens have never placed a foot in any EU country but their own. This situation is most common in south-eastern countries, but also within some of the largest countries in the continent, such as Italy, Spain and Poland, where more than 50 percent of the population have never been abroad in their entire life. https://www.europeandatajournalism.eu/cp_data_news/190-million-europeans-have-never-been-abroad/ Sure, overall probably more Europeans travel to different countries than Americans, but we mostly live in small, compact countries that are close to one another... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 13 minutes ago, urbanoid said: Now let's see... https://www.europeandatajournalism.eu/cp_data_news/190-million-europeans-have-never-been-abroad/ Sure, overall probably more Europeans travel to different countries than Americans, but we mostly live in small, compact countries that are close to one another... Not so wealthy either Except travel in EU is much cheaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DB Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 On 7/22/2023 at 4:25 PM, Strannik said: The next mortgage crisis? Butyou just said that past trends don'[t matter any more, or was that only when they don't support your masturbatory claims? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 (edited) 4 hours ago, DB said: Butyou just said that past trends don'[t matter any more, or was that only when they don't support your masturbatory claims? I've said that the past experience of US Treasuries being scooped up by the world as the only safe and liquid asset at the same rate is not going to be the current reality. US internal financial situation is hardly going to be better now that inflation is stubbornly high. Intetest payment on the debt alone is 900 blns, greater than DOD budget. I recall pundits claiming 2008 won't happen due to new loan quality, small inventory and better bank reserves. Well we know that the latter is bull, we'll see if the former will hold. So there are facts and there are silly gotcha questions. Edited July 24 by Strannik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 (edited) Twin deficits are at the same level as in 2008 Edited July 24 by Strannik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted July 29 Author Share Posted July 29 The calm before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burncycle360 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 (edited) Very good listen on the subject, outlining the history, various approaches and philosophy, along with what's different that helped cause the debt to explode. Worth the time (I listen on 2x speed usually to help) While the right has been behaving just as bad, It's fascinating that the left is quick to point out the importance of sustainability with regards to the environment, but never seems to extend that sentiment to the economy, especially given that unsustainable entitlements and decades of gross fiscal mismanagement by our own government (both parties) is going to kill people a hell of a lot faster than climate change. Some people are just barely hanging on as is, yet the party who claims to care about their plight seem to be doing everything possible to jack up the cost of living, then blame anything other than their own premise. This is a direct consequence of this phenomenon: That shows a direct correlation between what the media decides to focus on and how it affects the sentiment of the layperson relative to reality. Since politicians are incentivized to address the topics of interest to the public, this leads to policies that are responses to distorted perceptions of reality rather than actual reality. It's fascinating to watch. As a species we are still extremely susceptible to the sophistry of demagogues. Horribly mismanaging taxpayer dollars then shouting the refrain "if only the rich paid their fair share!" is cleverly designed to manipulate the sentiment of the layperson while both ignoring the fact that we can tax rich people into abject poverty and still not be able to pay for our unsustainable entitlements for a decade much less a generation and beyond. Then that burden falls on the next tax bracket down, then the next one, until yellow vests come out. The rich didn't mismanage and borrow against social security, the Government did. The Government that was entrusted with shepherding those funds across administrations so they would be there for the citizens later in life. The "rich" are paying all that they are legally obliged to, and taxing unrealized gains opens up a whole can of worms rife with its own terrible precedents. The problem is overwhelmingly the result of gross fiscal mismanagement by a Government who refuses to live within it means, not some nebulous neo-kulaks used to convince voters to blame anyone but those at the helm of a sinking ship. Day after day press secretaries come up and actually lie to our faces. "There won't be inflation", "inflation is transitory", "well its here to stay but inflation is good, actually...". They operate under the premise that if you repeat something often enough it manifests as true in the sentiment of the layperson. Unfortunately this does work for socially constructed things, but not objective reality. They don't make a distinction, so half the country seems to believe it works on reality just as well while the other half is wondering why in the world their ideological opposition keeps saying the emperor is wearing clothes when he's obviously not. The establishment today are just as concerned with losing power as the establishment of yesterday that kicked the can of fiscal irresponsibility down the road this far. When they run out of road, the only deus ex machina they can hope to avoid a reckoning are CBDCs where they have absolute control to fudge the numbers ad infinitum and thanks to compartmentalization no one else has the complete picture so when they say the economy is going swimmingly who are you to argue? What, are you going to believe your lying eyes? Then there is modern monetary theory... guess what's attractive about that? Just wait till modern monetary theory, CBDCs, social media and AI converge and interact with this phenomena. The world is about to be unrecognizable Edited July 29 by Burncycle360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted July 29 Author Share Posted July 29 30 minutes ago, Burncycle360 said: ... unsustainable entitlements and decades of gross fiscal mismanagement by our own government (both parties)... The rich didn't mismanage and borrow against social security, the Government did. And who do you think lobbied the government for all the thing that led to mismanagement? Trade unions? 😂 Entitlements like Medicare could be managed just fine if it wouldn't be for the very special laws like in the link below and many other stunted policies. https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/21/politics/medicare-drug-price-negotiation-lawsuit-phrma/index.html 30 minutes ago, Burncycle360 said: The establishment today are just as concerned with losing power as the establishment of yesterday... So perhaps the problem lies within the system itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 The "problem" lies with the voters. Followed by "academia" and the news organizations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 (edited) On 7/30/2023 at 7:43 AM, Rick said: The "problem" lies with the voters. Followed by "academia" and the news organizations. In a "democracy" where yes, the voters vote, but they lack civic and critical thinking education because "academia" and they vote in the info bubble ("free press") paid by ("campaign contributions") the special interests ("donors" - diminutive for a clients by certain type of ladies) and they ultimately elect politicians ("civil servants" - a good one) who also need money to get reelected (and in some case they can even keep the leftover after they loose) and even if they initially had any good intentions they will do what the piper commands because next cycle... See if elites get to setup the rules of the game, the players will never never win. The best setup is where the players think they not only can, but do win at least sometimes... It's all obvious and not that I have "discovered America" here 😂 Edited July 31 by Strannik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Well, its a result of the Prussian School of educational thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted August 2 Author Share Posted August 2 US credit rating downgraded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 we're noting an alarm from the rtm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted August 24 Author Share Posted August 24 (edited) Why inflation will not go away: Hindenburg research did a study of 55 countries that got above 120% federal debt to GDP. In 54 instances, the central bank monetized the debt, and they inflated it away. The only exception was Japan. Inflation is the new normal - Fed is already talking about raising inflation target to 3% from current 2%. Edited August 24 by Strannik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 The U.S. has accumulated as much debt in the last 10 years as in the entire 100 years before that. From 1923 - 2013: $16 trillion From 2013 - 2023: $16 trillion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 (edited) 8 hours ago, Strannik said: The U.S. has accumulated as much debt in the last 10 years as in the entire 100 years before that. From 1923 - 2013: $16 trillion From 2013 - 2023: $16 trillion China is in the same boat. It’s debt to GDP ratio now slightly exceeds that of the U.S. at ~250%, and most of that is just since 2008: http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html#:~:text=How bad is it%3F,financial bust and economic slump. Edited August 25 by Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 1 hour ago, Josh said: China is in the same boat. It’s debt to GDP ratio now slightly exceeds that of the U.S. at ~250%, and most of that is just since 2008: http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html#:~:text=How bad is it%3F,financial bust and economic slump. China's debt is mostly internal. Not the case of US. When these $$$$$ will start coming home in mass - what will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 3 hours ago, Strannik said: China's debt is mostly internal. Not the case of US. When these $$$$$ will start coming home in mass - what will happen? We’ll see if it happens. Internal debt is still someone not getting paid if the entity with the loan runs out of cash, and China has also managed to double its debt in the last decade. I suspect we will see in the next year who has a bigger problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 US 1970-2023: The avg home price has risen 20x The avg cost for bachelor degree has risen 18x The avg new car price rose 16x The avg gasoline price rose 11x Yet nominal avg income has only risen ~6x Hence credit and debt dramatic rise and now very little leeway left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWB Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 17 minutes ago, Strannik said: US 1970-2023: The avg home price has risen 20x The avg cost for bachelor degree has risen 18x The avg new car price rose 16x The avg gasoline price rose 11x Yet nominal avg income has only risen ~6x Hence credit and debt dramatic rise and now very little leeway left. Do you have a reputable source for those stats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FALightFighter Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Average home price in Q2, 1970 was $27,300 (Q1 was $27,000, Q3 was $26,300, and Q4 was $26,300). Average in Q2, 2023 was $495,100. That's 18.13x However, Q4, 2022 was $552,600, which is 20.24x. I don't think those are adjusted for inflation, I think they are nominal dollars. Source is https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS Average new car price in 1970 was $3,914, but adjusted for inflation that is $29,552. https://blog.cheapism.com/average-car-price-by-year/#slide=30 Average new car price in November 2022 was $48,681. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-sets-record/ Best case, that 12.43x (48681/3914), not 16x. This https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/planes-trains-and-automobiles/average-gas-prices-through-history/ says $0.36/gal for 1970, which is $2.70 adjusted for inflation to 2022. This https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/prices-and-outlook.php cites AAA as $3.56/gal average for the year so far. $3.56 is only 9.88x $0.36, not 11x. This only goes back to 1976. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/prices-and-outlook.php This says median household income in 1970 was $8,330/yr, inflation adjusted to $61,566. https://dqydj.com/household-income-by-year/#Median_Household_Income_by_Year In some of these things there are some many variables that are not captured by use the "average" (mean or median? I don't think mode is relevant). For instance, the median household income in 1970 was predicated on some number of single income households and some number of dual income households. I don't know what that proportion is, but I'll guarantee that it is different today. In 1970, some percentage of households were married couples- that number is significantly lower today. Does that impact, either the effect or the reporting? Anyway, lots to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strannik Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 (edited) 33 minutes ago, FALightFighter said: Anyway, lots to think about. According to https://www.demandsage.com/average-us-income/ an avg income is just below 57k The Pew research with which I do have a problem re: the way they scaled up limits - this way they increased upper middle class by 50%, which is just counter-intuitive and 29k is more like a poverty than lower level, but hey...) says: The share of adults who live in middle-class households fell from 61% in 1971 to 50% in 2021 Anyway you slice it - "lots to think about". https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/04/20/how-the-american-middle-class-has-changed-in-the-past-five-decades/ Edited September 2 by Strannik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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