The time has come to supply Ukraine with COIN/LAAR aircraft, what the heck is the West waiting for?

[Stuart Galbraith]

On 4/27/2023 at 2:25 PM, bojan said:

If that was true none of the countries you have mentioned would exist today, just as independent Scotland does not exist.

And what happened in 1991 was precisely what the USSR and Russia wanted, right? Those countries are independent, precisely because of HOW they were incorporated, at gunpoint. Ask an Estonian.

Actually Scotland has far more independence today than any of the Soviet States ever had. Its far more comparable to the US system. They even have their own legal and tax systems.

[Stuart Galbraith]

12 hours ago, FALightFighter said:

The Russians are already killing Ukrainians that have fallen under their control. And we have the evidence of history, what they did in Ukraine in the 1920-30s, what they did in Poland in 1939-41, and what they did all over Eastern Europe in 1944 and following.

 

You can bet that the Ukrainian military leadership (the officer corps) and the political class will be on the chopping block if the Russians take the entire country. If the Russians leave a rump Ukraine, they will take similar actions in the part they control, and will probably wage  unconventional warfare, murder and terror campaigns, against those who oppose their agenda in the "independent" part.

And according to recent sources, they are even deporting people to Siberia whom refuse to adopt a Russian passport. Which is only slightly more nice than what the USSR was doing when it annexed territory. Those people didnt get the chance to even have a passport.

This is a war without end. Even assuming Ukraine has a total victory, Russia will keep pushing insurgencies and terrorist attacks, at the very least Cyber attacks. And if they lose, Ukraine will continue an insurgency sapping Russia for generations to come. I dont even see it ending when Putin falls out the window.

[glenn239]

12 hours ago, Angrybk said:

I think that in the very unlikely case of a total Russian victory Ukraine will be an insurgency/counter insurgency bloodbath. 

I can see some sort of insurgency, and I can also see Chinese security tech and Russian counter insurgency methods being such that an insurgency will be ineffective and quickly die out.

[DB]

And that snuffing out of the insurgency would be completely bloodless, too.

🙄

I don't see anyone coming up with anything different from the various possible outcomes I listed months ago. Whatever happens, when and if the conflict formally ends, people will be displaced (ethnic cleansing), or murdered and displaced. The same happens whichever side "wins", but the Ukrainians might be kept a bit more honest by their long-term desire to be western aligned, rather than a pariah (rump) state.

[glenn239]

17 minutes ago, DB said:

And that snuffing out of the insurgency would be completely bloodless, too.

🙄

 

I said yesterday that I would be surprised if the total number of Ukrainians killed post-treaty were more than 1% of the total during the war.  That was with reference to the possibility of insurgency.

Quote

I don't see anyone coming up with anything different from the various possible outcomes I listed months ago. Whatever happens, when and if the conflict formally ends, people will be displaced (ethnic cleansing), or murdered and displaced. The same happens whichever side "wins", but the Ukrainians might be kept a bit more honest by their long-term desire to be western aligned, rather than a pariah (rump) state

Like how Chechnya became a hellscape after losing a war to Russia, right?

[urbanoid]

No, it became a Potemkin village sucking billions from Russian budget to let the Russians pretend that they won. Ethnic Russians have nothing to look for in Chechnya, while the Moscow-backed neanderthal has free reign.