The time has come to supply Ukraine with COIN/LAAR aircraft, what the heck is the West waiting for?

[Olof Larsson]

14 hours ago, On the way said:

What AD assets do the Russians have in the Crimea Peninsula? There is no SAM or AD umbrella over the Crimea. I am sure the Ukrainians have already figured out the gaps in coverage there. And why do you assume a COIN/LAAR is automatically dead in the face of AD? They have flares, chaff, radar warning receivers, etc. Are they going to have zero losses? Of course not. But modern fast jets will also have losses in the face of AD.

SA-N-4, SA-N-5, SA-N-12, SA-16, SA-24, SA-29, 2M-3M, AK-230, AK-630, AK-725, AK-176, AK-762, AK-100, A-190, Pantsir-M, CADS-N-1 Kashtan, Su-27, Su-30, Su-35, Su-57, MiG-29, MiG-31. And obviously S-400 and a whole slew of ground based AD sytstems effective against COIN-aircrafts, down to individual small arms.

[Olof Larsson]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Right, but for about 80 years Finland was non-aligned and it worked fine.  As we discussed for a decade before the war.  Now, it appears that its more likely than not Ukraine is going to lose the war and suffer north of 250,000 KIA doing so, and be swallowed into the Sino-Russian orbit.

As you say, actions have reactions.

Being a buffer state is no longer a option for Ukraine. They have to win or cease to exist as a nation & face large scale genocide. And continuing on the current path with western support, would result in a ukrainian victory, with far less than 250'000 KIA. That obviously doesn't include all the civilian ukrainian men, women, elderly, children & babies, that the russians have tortured, raped, mutiliated & murdered & will continue to torture, raped, mutiliate & murder, but even with the civilian casualties, that is a small price to pay, compared to what will happen if Ukraine looses.

 

Not winning is no more an option for Ukraine today, then it was to Israel in 1948.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Olof Larsson said:

Being a buffer state is no longer a option for Ukraine. They have to win or cease to exist as a nation & face large scale genocide.

The NATO card simply hasn't panned out for Ukraine.  Even a military genius like Zelensky must be realizing that by now.   The other card to play is China.  But to go that way, NATO will have to be punted to the curb.  We're not at the point where Kyiv will have to start considering this plan, but Zelensky and Xi just did have their first conversation.

Quote

And continuing on the current path with western support, would result in a ukrainian victory, with far less than 250'000 KIA.   That obviously doesn't include all the civilian ukrainian men, women, elderly, children & babies, that the russians have tortured, raped, mutiliated & murdered & will continue to torture, raped, mutiliate & murder, but even with the civilian casualties, that is a small price to pay, compared to what will happen if Ukraine looses.

Barring a miracle, Ukraine is going to lose this war and its military KIA will be over 250,000 by the time it's all done.  (Even the lower tempo Syrian civil war with far less firepower killed 300,000 soldiers over the course of the six most intense years of fighting).  The country will then have to pick up the shattered pieces and move on like every other country had done after losing a war.  If and when that bridge is crossed, we can have all the conversations in the world around here why posters here thought rolling the dice was better than going for the Minsk Accords in 2021.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by glenn239

[sunday]

Attempted genocide of Russians (for being Russians) by Ukrainians does not mean Russians are going to genocide Ukrainian for being Ukrainians, I think.

Banderistas and various Nazis, especially those starring in snuff videos of torturing of Russian POW, that is another thing, but not different of what happened in France or Italy after WWII.

[On the way]

4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The NATO card simply hasn't panned out for Ukraine.  Even a military genius like Zelensky must be realizing that by now.   The other card to play is China.  But to go that way, NATO will have to be punted to the curb.  We're not at the point where Kyiv will have to start considering this plan, but Zelensky and Xi just did have their first conversation.

Barring a miracle, Ukraine is going to lose this war and its military KIA will be over 250,000 by the time it's all done.  (Even the lower tempo Syrian civil war with far less firepower killed 300,000 soldiers over the course of the six most intense years of fighting).  The country will then have to pick up the shattered pieces and move on like every other country had done after losing a war.  If and when that bridge is crossed, we can have all the conversations in the world around here why posters here thought rolling the dice was better than going for the Minsk Accords in 2021.

 

 

I will have to assume you were drunk when typing this up. If Ukraine losses the war, their KIA will not be 250000 soldiers killed. It will be more then a million. Their KIA will include every single Ukrainian who put on a uniform and every militia, reserve and police officer. The Russians will see to that. And not to mention the non military losses will number more then that. Civilians always suffer casualties in the multiple times to the military losses. As for the country picking up the shattered pieces. Wrong. There will be no country. It will be part of Russia. There is no picking up the pieces. A loss in the war by the Ukraine will end in occupation by the Russians of the entire country, the elimination of Ukraine as an independent country, and absorption into the Russia.

[sunday]

37 minutes ago, On the way said:

Their KIA will include every single Ukrainian who put on a uniform and every militia, reserve and police officer. The Russians will see to that.

Why? Are you aware of influential Russian ideologues proposing a Final Solution for the Ukraine?

Moreover, when there are people actually in the receiving end of something very much like genocide, e.g. white farmers on Zimbabwe or South Africa, few people express concern over the matter.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48264941

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/world/africa/South-Africa-murder-protests.html

https://www.newsweek.com/zimbabwe-president-robert-mugabe-white-farmers-651326 

https://www.accord.org.za/ajcr-issues/farm-attacks-or-white-genocide-interrogating-the-unresolved-land-question-in-south-africa/

Edited April 27, 2023 by sunday

[On the way]

13 hours ago, bojan said:

Lawnmower low:

 

Judging by the speed, and cockpit, is that a SU-25 Frogfoot?

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Why? Are you aware of influential Russian ideologues proposing a Final Solution for the Ukraine?

Moreover, when there are people actually in the receiving end of something very much like genocide, e.g. white farmers on Zimbabwe or South Africa, few people express concern over the matter.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48264941

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/world/africa/South-Africa-murder-protests.html

https://www.newsweek.com/zimbabwe-president-robert-mugabe-white-farmers-651326 

https://www.accord.org.za/ajcr-issues/farm-attacks-or-white-genocide-interrogating-the-unresolved-land-question-in-south-africa/

Because thats what Russia always does when it takes over a country.

And if that was some time ago, it doesnt make the experience any less relevant. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, and last but by no means least, Poland. That they are actively rewriting the history of Katyn forest as we speak, tells you quite how telling that example is.

[urbanoid]

Somehow fits

[bojan]

7 hours ago, On the way said:

Judging by the speed, and cockpit, is that a SU-25 Frogfoot?

Yep.

[bojan]

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Because thats what Russia always does when it takes over a country.

If that was true none of the countries you have mentioned would exist today, just as independent Scotland does not exist.

[KV7]

A Russian 'victory' will much more likely than some total annexation involve some collapse of the Ukrainian army and a settlement that creates at the least a ceasefire line giving Russia de facto control over much of the east. Russia holding and attempting to annexe or occupy central and western Ukraine seems quite fanciful. 

This limited conquest may involve Russian atrocities but most likely these would most plausibly be isolated instances of reprisals against parts of the population of newly taken territory.  Most of the Ukrainian government aligned civilians would probably flee and Russia would have no motive to stop them leaving, so even some 'ethnic cleansing' in the form of deportations or 'terrorise people into leaving' in the captured territories seems unlikely. 

The best data to extrapolate from here is the Russian treatment of civilians in areas that have been captured where support for Russia is mixed, i.e. on the order of 60-40 %. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by KV7

[sunday]

4 minutes ago, KV7 said:

The best data to extrapolate from here is the Russian treatment of civilians in areas that have been captured where support for Russia is mixed, i.e. on the order of 60-40 %. 

Also, one could compare how the current Ukrainian authorities have treated the population of the Russophone areas they control.

Hint: That population mutinied and launched a violent separatist movement.

[bojan]

21 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

I was going to say... referencing the bolded bit isn't this just a complete waste of resources?  If this is all the UkAF is doing... is it even worth the fuel and the possibility of losing the pilot and plane over such attacks? 

Need to try to do something vs sit on ass and do nothing.

[urbanoid]

You can speak Russian as a first language and NOT want to be a Russian or have your country/oblast/whatever annexed by Russia. 2014 wasn't strictly Russian speakers vs Ukrainian speakers.

For example in Odessa there were fights between pro-Russian separatists and pro-Ukrainians, on the pro-Ukrainian side were the fans of Odessa and Kharkiv football clubs. Kharkiv and Odessa are Russian-speaking cities, one would assume their football fans speak Russian as well, eh?

Burning the union house in Odessa was for a long time one of favourite points of Russian propaganda. OTOH they failed to mention that before that pro-Russian separatists attacked a pro-Ukrainian march, several of the marchers were shot and only in an ensuing fight the separatists were forced to retreat to the union house, which was next set on fire with molotov cocktails. Sort of a 'fucked around and found out' situation. 

Lots of people in the Ukrainian military are Russian speakers and they fight for Ukraine, being Ukrainian is a matter of choice for them.

[R011]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

You can speak Russian as a first language and NOT want to be a Russian or have your country/oblast/whatever annexed by Russia. 2014 wasn't strictly Russian speakers vs Ukrainian speakers.

For example in Odessa there were fights between pro-Russian separatists and pro-Ukrainians, on the pro-Ukrainian side were the fans of Odessa and Kharkiv football clubs. Kharkiv and Odessa are Russian-speaking cities, one would assume their football fans speak Russian as well, eh?

Burning the union house in Odessa was for a long time one of favourite points of Russian propaganda. OTOH they failed to mention that before that pro-Russian separatists attacked a pro-Ukrainian march, several of the marchers were shot and only in an ensuing fight the separatists were forced to retreat to the union house, which was next set on fire with molotov cocktails. Sort of a 'fucked around and found out' situation. 

Lots of people in the Ukrainian military are Russian speakers and they fight for Ukraine, being Ukrainian is a matter of choice for them.

The current head Banderist Ukronazi is a Russian-speaking Jew.  Stupid Ukrainians can't even Nazi right.  Russia will fix that!

[sunday]

Well, Gotthard Heinrici, the so-called premier defensive expert of the Wehrmacht, was married to a half-Jewish lady.

Edited April 28, 2023 by sunday

[glenn239]

On 4/27/2023 at 12:39 AM, On the way said:

I will have to assume you were drunk when typing this up. If Ukraine losses the war, their KIA will not be 250000 soldiers killed. It will be more then a million. 

If Ukraine loses presumably its military will demobilize back into civilian life after turning over all Western (and much Soviet era) equipment to the Russians.    If the total number of Ukrainian casualties that happen after the war prove to be more than one percent of the casualties suffered during the war, I for one would be surprised. 

Quote

 Their KIA will include every single Ukrainian who put on a uniform and every militia, reserve and police officer.

Zero chance of that.  

Quote

As for the country picking up the shattered pieces. Wrong. There will be no country. It will be part of Russia. There is no picking up the pieces. A loss in the war by the Ukraine will end in occupation by the Russians of the entire country, the elimination of Ukraine as an independent country, and absorption into the Russia.

You just implied that the Russians would murder huge numbers of demobilizing Ukrainian troops.  Now your saying that they would annex Ukraine, meaning that they'd be murdering Russians - these ideas look utterly incoherent to me on all levels.  

Anyways, I doubt the Russians annex Ukraine - I think they gain far more advantage by not doing so.  Not in the least that if Ukraine is neutralized, smaller, but independent, the West can scarcely renege on its vast promises of massive amounts of aid to rebuild Ukraine.   No, I think if/when Ukraine loses, it will lose territory and be forced to eject every single element of NATO influence down to the last rifle round, but the country itself will still exist with its capital in Kyiv.

[FALightFighter]

The Russians are already killing Ukrainians that have fallen under their control. And we have the evidence of history, what they did in Ukraine in the 1920-30s, what they did in Poland in 1939-41, and what they did all over Eastern Europe in 1944 and following.

 

You can bet that the Ukrainian military leadership (the officer corps) and the political class will be on the chopping block if the Russians take the entire country. If the Russians leave a rump Ukraine, they will take similar actions in the part they control, and will probably wage  unconventional warfare, murder and terror campaigns, against those who oppose their agenda in the "independent" part.

[sunday]

Considering the 1930s and 1940s, shall Jews be afraid of Germans, then?

[FALightFighter]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Considering the 1930s and 1940s, shall Jews be afraid of Germans, then?

If Germany were ruled tyrannically by a fascist demagogue who started his career in the Nazi intelligence/security service, who had publicly stated that he wanted to return Germany to the glorious state of the Nazi past, who had eliminated political opposition, was publicly naming Jews as the cause of Germany's demographic and economic issues, and who had started to emulate Nazi policies restricting the civil rights of Jewish Germans, then there'd probably be a pretty good case for it.

[Angrybk]

I think that in the very unlikely case of a total Russian victory Ukraine will be an insurgency/counter insurgency bloodbath. 

[KV7]

3 hours ago, Angrybk said:

I think that in the very unlikely case of a total Russian victory Ukraine will be an insurgency/counter insurgency bloodbath. 

That is one reason why even a total Russian victory would likely produce a partition. Then those who dislike living under Russian control can and likely will just move west. And the potential Ukrainian political sponsors of an insurgency could just instead live a nice life in the west too, and even get some senior government positions etc. 

[sunday]

6 hours ago, FALightFighter said:

If Germany were ruled tyrannically by a fascist demagogue who started his career in the Nazi intelligence/security service, who had publicly stated that he wanted to return Germany to the glorious state of the Nazi past, who had eliminated political opposition, was publicly naming Jews as the cause of Germany's demographic and economic issues, and who had started to emulate Nazi policies restricting the civil rights of Jewish Germans, then there'd probably be a pretty good case for it.

Well, so no reason to be afraid of an eventual Russian victory, then.

[seahawk]

11 hours ago, sunday said:

Considering the 1930s and 1940s, shall Jews be afraid of Germans, then?

Yes, always.