Non-Green Energy: Oil and Gas

[Josh]

2 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

There's no way China can prevent 3rd party drone sales to Ukraine.

 

From its own industries? Why not? Would it violate their constitution?

[glenn239]

14 hours ago, Josh said:

From its own industries? Why not? Would it violate their constitution?

Direct export sales from China to Russia and Ukraine they can stop, while leaving the border with Russia wide open to allow Russian companies to waltz into Russia with as many drones as they want.   But American and European companies buy billions of dollars worth of Chinese drones every year, and once those drones leave China, the Chinese have no say on where they will be resold.

[Strannik]

Can we move off topic convos to the appropriate thread please.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Strannik

[Josh]

17 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Direct export sales from China to Russia and Ukraine they can stop, while leaving the border with Russia wide open to allow Russian companies to waltz into Russia with as many drones as they want.   But American and European companies buy billions of dollars worth of Chinese drones every year, and once those drones leave China, the Chinese have no say on where they will be resold.

The U.S. has lots of rules with regards to the resale of tech items. That’s why they can impose bans of China for US designed tech architecture. China couldn’t rigorously enforce where exported products go, the same way western tech bans on it and especially Russia are only partially effective. But it certainly can set rules on where its products go if it wanted to. AFAIK they have made no attempt to do so.

[JWB]

UPDATE 6-Oil falls on demand fears and doubts over OPEC+ cuts (msn.com)

[Strannik]

At least 50 fertilizer production facilities have closed in Europe. This is stated in a report by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (a major financial group among the world's top ten).

Fertilizer production in the EU has become completely unprofitable due to gas prices. 75% of the cost of nitrogen fertilizer is the cost of gas. 

The rejection of cheap gas from Russia, affordable potash from Belarus, is forcing the EU to shut down its production facilities, which used to supply all of Euopean agriculture.

Fertilizer production in Europe is almost completely stopped, which will eventually force Europe to buy fertilizer or grain as early as 2024.

[Strannik]

One of the world leaders in the production of seamless pipes, Vallourec, has closed the production of these products in Germany.

The company's plant in Mülheim an der Ruhr will close permanently on December 31.

The decision to close the Vallourec plants in Düsseldorf and Mülheim was announced in May last year due to, guess what, high energy prices. 

[JWB]

 

[Strannik]

Rus nat gas prices to China caught up and surpassed the remaining European ones:

Interesting dynamics in the gas market - in European hubs gas now costs approximately 26 EUR/MWh - that's 273 EUR/000m3 If we assume that the cost of transportation in Ukraine and Slovakia is 48 EUR/000m3, then the netback to the Russian border is 225 EUR/000m3

 And according to the formula with an oil link, valid for supplies via the Power of Siberia, it turns out $229/000m3

 Looks like it's even.  With the exception of the Covid period, this seems to be the first time that the Chinese formula turned out to be more profitable than the European spot.
 Since the Chinese formula works with large averaging and a large delay, it is known until November 2024 and will remain approximately the same.  We can only judge European prices from the futures curve, but it is fairly flat through October, so if things progress according to the current market consensus, this rough parity should continue for the next six months.

Edited March 8, 2024 by Strannik

[urbanoid]

 

[JWB]

In Wyoming, Bill Gates moves ahead with nuclear project aimed at revolutionizing power generation (msn.com)

[JWB]

 

[lucklucky]

How many times i have read that...

[Ssnake]

...and then "something unexpected" happens and the whole prophecy goes down the drain but nobody's at fault because "it was really impossible to foresee that". Which, admittedly it is - but still people do these forecasts rather than admitting they don't know.

[bojan]

As 24/7 news channels have shown - people prefer any story over lack of news. Hence various quacks  and loonies trying to predict unpredictable.

Edited June 13, 2024 by bojan

[rmgill]

9 hours ago, lucklucky said:

How many times i have read that...

I have a book series from the mid 50s that predicts peak oil in the 80s. Its, ironically enough a book series on technology and its development. 
 

German to English translation of How things Work. 

[JWB]

13 hours ago, rmgill said:

I have a book series from the mid 50s that predicts peak oil in the 80s. Its, ironically enough a book series on technology and its development. 
 

German to English translation of How things Work. 

Peak demand is not peak supply.

[Ivanhoe]

The globalists failed to scare the plebs with peak supply, so now they are trying peak demand.

Of course, the globalist way of addressing peak demand is starvation and euthanasia.

 

[rmgill]

Sure if you tax the crap out of it and mandate we can ONLY buy range limited electric cars, sure, demand will drop. 

[lucklucky]

Americans have a large country with cheaper gas and are an oil producer , in Europe i already got in several eletric ubers, they are generally happy: much more comfortable driving(no stick/clutch) 15min in a supermarket chain park gives 80-120km which time they take to lunch, range full is usually in the +300km  so they can do +400km day. Significantly lower prices than gas. (until Gov's increase taxes and they will) 

Electricity can be produced in many ways, gas is basically only from oil. For strategic and productive reasons there is no stopping the electrification.  It is a dematerialization of energy consumption from energy sources. If tomorrow nuke fusion or any other new tech is practical all people with electric devices not only vehicles, machinery etc. will smile.

Edited June 14, 2024 by lucklucky

[rmgill]

 

16 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

 For strategic and productive reasons there is no stopping the electrification. 

Except for the limitations of copper and other metal supplies, the amount production amounts of electricity from the renewable sources and the level of distribution needed to supplant the liquid and solid fuel sources and supply paths. 

[Tim Sielbeck]

25 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

For strategic and productive reasons there is no stopping the electrification.

One country controls most of the EV battery production.  How strategic is it to be totally beholden to their good graces?

[bojan]

They control it only because others don't want to invest in "dirty" industry.

[rmgill]

So is that a bug or a feature to this new initiative to go ALL electric as a "source" of energy? 

I put source in quotes because electricity is NOT a source. It's merely a transmission medium with batteries a storage medium. One could demand the use of wind up rubber band cars, with rubber from Malaya as the strategic resource. You'd still need some other source of energy to wind it up. 

[lucklucky]

Like i said and you also just said it is not a source. It is in fact a dematerialization of sources. It can be many.

That is a redundancy and security advantage. You can source electricity from wind to gas, to coal, to nukes, hydroeletric etc.

Edited June 15, 2024 by lucklucky