Non-Green Energy: Oil and Gas

[urbanoid]

No limit partnertship!!!111one!

 

[Strannik]

Meanwhile real data:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-25/gazprom-says-gas-exports-to-china-reach-new-high-as-demand-soars#xj4y7vzkg

[bojan]

That guy is more less useless as source of any intel.

[urbanoid]

Yeah, but the source was SCMP article, not him.

[Josh]

China views Russia as a commodity to be consumed, not an ally.

[glenn239]

20 minutes ago, Josh said:

China views Russia as a commodity to be consumed, not an ally.

Source?

[Josh]

16 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Source?

Opinion based on behavior. China has done nothing but exploit the Russian position in the Ukraine war. It doesn't sell weapons, sells dual use items at normal price, and buys Russian oil at a cut rate. They won't even take the basic step of cutting Ukraine off from its commercial drone market. The Sino-Russo relationship is more akin to the German-Japanese alliance in WWII: "oh, you're fighting the US too? That's nice".

[bojan]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

China Great powers views Russia everyone else as a commodity to be consumed, not an ally.

Fixed it.

[Strannik]

4 hours ago, Josh said:

аnd buys Russian oil at a cut rate.

Also your opinion or there is a source ?

[Josh]

3 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Also your opinion or there is a source ?

It was widely reported at the time. Not sure if Russia has managed to raise the price since. Top google results from a 5s search:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-buys-russian-oil-multi-month-low-discounts-brushes-off-price-cap-2022-12-08/

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

Opinion based on behavior. China has done nothing but exploit the Russian position in the Ukraine war.

I think you might be underestimating China's current and real capacity to extort ruthlessly Russia, were it to choose to do so.  Yet, they do not.

[Strannik]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

It was widely reported at the time. Not sure if Russia has managed to raise the price since. Top google results from a 5s search:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-buys-russian-oil-multi-month-low-discounts-brushes-off-price-cap-2022-12-08/

12/2022 - that was the time everybody was getting a deep discount on Russian oil, not just China

Nowadays discounts are much more modest.

[JWB]

How Colombia's dirty coal fuels Germany's energy transition (msn.com)

[Josh]

15 hours ago, Strannik said:

12/2022 - that was the time everybody was getting a deep discount on Russian oil, not just China

Nowadays discounts are much more modest.

The original post still seems factually accurate.

 

[Josh]

16 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I think you might be underestimating China's current and real capacity to extort ruthlessly Russia, were it to choose to do so.  Yet, they do not.

We’ve gone from “unlimited” alliance to non-extortion. That’s quit the sliding scale.

[Josh]

18 hours ago, bojan said:

"China Great powers views Russia everyone else as a commodity to be consumed, not an ally."

Fixed it.

I would largely agree, except sometimes there cultural or historical reasons countries that go beyond simple military or economic gains. The US-UK-Aus relationship seems anchored in both a common culture (at one point all the same polity) and historic cooperation that go beyond simple exploitation on the part of the US. It is hard to imagine the US abandoning either of those countries to their fate were one to undergo some kind of disaster, regardless of whether they had any future strategic utility. China and Russia on the other hand have no cultural bonds to speak of, which is why I thought the Japan-Germany comparison apt.

[glenn239]

26 minutes ago, Josh said:

We’ve gone from “unlimited” alliance to non-extortion. That’s quit the sliding scale.

You stated,

China has done nothing but exploit the Russian position in the Ukraine war

I replied by saying that if China wanted to extort Russia in its current situation, it could do so to practically any level it wished given Russia's current isolation with the West.  This does not imply that I believe that China is exploiting Russia, merely that I think what you are saying is wrong.

[Josh]

1 minute ago, glenn239 said:

You stated,

China has done nothing but exploit the Russian position in the Ukraine war

I replied by saying that if China wanted to extort Russia in its current situation, it could do so to practically any level it wished given Russia's current isolation with the West.  This does not imply that I believe that China is exploiting Russia, merely that I think what you are saying is wrong.

I'm amenable to changing my statement to either "only modestly exploiting Russia compared to what it could be doing" or "merely indifferent to Russia and willing to sell or buy from anyone".

[glenn239]

Just now, Josh said:

I'm amenable to changing my statement to either "only modestly exploiting Russia compared to what it could be doing" or "merely indifferent to Russia and willing to sell or buy from anyone".

You can alter your statement to whatever you want, I find your core ideas on the Sino-Russian relationship simply do not track to what I am observing.  

I am reminded of German attitudes towards the emerging Triple Entente circa 1905-1910.  Then there was an unreality in Berlin about what they were seeing, a determination to find theories and explanations for why the Entente was a soap bubble when in actual fact the Entente was  a deadly serious response by three countries that had had it with Germany.  

[Strannik]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

I'm amenable to changing my statement to either "only modestly exploiting Russia compared to what it could be doing" or "merely indifferent to Russia and willing to sell or buy from anyone".

Your statement is still strange.  China is conducting a normal oil trading with Russia paying a market price.   Or did you expect Russia to keep the the lower price for China when the market is going up?

 

And while China is not selling high caliber ammo, the microelectronics/other components/personal defense stuff/autos, heck the trade like doubled are flowing. 

And these countries are not the allies technically, so...

Edited November 29, 2023 by Strannik

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

Your statement is still strange.  China is conducting a normal oil trading with Russia paying a market price.   Or did you expect Russia to keep the the lower price for China when the market is going up?

 

And while China is not selling high caliber ammo, the microelectronics/other components/personal defense stuff/autos, heck the trade like doubled are flowing. 

And these countries are not thevallies technically, so...

I will accept that "exploit" is no longer applicable and go with "indifferent".

As for commercial and dual use goods, they are quite happy to sell to Russia...and Ukraine. I'm a little surprised that they wouldn't at least stop complete UAV sales to Ukraine. I think they could do that without provoking much blowback from the west.

[Josh]

In other news, US oil production continues to rise in the face of KSA and Russian cuts:

"Amid the squeeze on OPEC, the United States is thriving as an oil producer, accounting for 80 percent of the global supply increase in 2023, according to the I.E.A. The agency, which includes natural gas liquids in its calculations, estimates that in October the United States pumped 19.8 million barrels a day, nearly as much as the combined total from Russia and Saudi Arabia, the next two largest producers."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/business/energy-environment/opec-oil-prices.html

[Strannik]

32 minutes ago, Josh said:

I'm a little surprised that they wouldn't at least stop complete UAV sales to Ukraine. I think they could do that without provoking much blowback from the west.

Here I would generally agree, except that then West likely would press them to stop selling to Russia.  My understanding is Russians are going directly to  Chinese mfrs. and generally have preferences, while Ukes are resorted sometimes to roundabout ways, but it's anecdotal. 

[Strannik]

43 minutes ago, Josh said:

In other news, US oil production continues to rise in the face of KSA and Russian cuts:

"Amid the squeeze on OPEC, the United States is thriving as an oil producer, accounting for 80 percent of the global supply increase in 2023, according to the I.E.A. The agency, which includes natural gas liquids in its calculations, estimates that in October the United States pumped 19.8 million barrels a day, nearly as much as the combined total from Russia and Saudi Arabia, the next two largest producers."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/business/energy-environment/opec-oil-prices.html

Truly amazing is the fact that US consumes 19.7 mln bbl/day vs 11.7 by China.

Considering where all the goods are made.

Talking about inefficiencies/peculiarities of transportation I guess...

Edited November 29, 2023 by Strannik

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

As for commercial and dual use goods, they are quite happy to sell to Russia...and Ukraine. I'm a little surprised that they wouldn't at least stop complete UAV sales to Ukraine. I think they could do that without provoking much blowback from the west.

There's no way China can prevent 3rd party drone sales to Ukraine.