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Non-Green Energy: Oil and Gas


Strannik

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OPEC+ Makes Surprise 1 Million-Barrel Oil Production Cut - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sarabia-other-opec-producers-announce-voluntary-oil-output-cuts-2023-04-02/

  • SA/other OPEC+ producers announced voluntary cuts to their production amounting to around 1.15 mln bpd
  • Last October OPEC+ agreed to output cuts of 2 mln bpd from November until the end of the year
  • Sunday's unexpected voluntary cuts, which start from May, come in addition to the ones already agreed in October
  • Russia also said on Sunday that Moscow would extend a voluntary cut of 500,000 bpd until the end of 2023. Moscow announced those cuts unilaterally in February following the introduction of Western price caps.

The Saudi energy ministry said in a statement that the kingdom's voluntary cut was a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.

Oil prices fell to 15-month lows earlier this month in response to the banking crisis that followed the collapse of two U.S. lenders and resulted in Credit Suisse being rescued by Switzerland's biggest bank UBS.

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Not happy with Japan doing business with Russia, but they gotta buy it somewhere. Covid took the fun out of fungible. 

 

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China completes first yuan-settled international LNG trade

Chinese oil and gas player CNOOC and French energy giant TotalEnergies have completed China’s first yuan-settled LNG trade through the Chinese energy trading centre Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/demand-fuel-tankers-jumps-amid-global-trade-reshuffle

Quote

 

So far into 2023, a total of 38 mid-range fuel tankers have been ordered, the highest number since 2013, per data from shipbroker Braemar cited by Bloomberg.

The new global trade order after the EU and G7 embargoes and price caps on Russian oil products, as well as the rise in Asian and Middle Eastern refining capacity while facilities closed in the U.S. and Europe, have created a wider geographical dislocation between new refining capacity and major consuming centers.

Ahead of the EU ban on Russian petroleum products, Russia began to divert its oil product cargoes to North Africa and Asia. At the same time, Europe has started to buy more diesel and other fuels from the Middle East, Asia, and North America to replace the lost Russian barrels.

Using ship-to-ship (STS) loadings, Russia is shortening the routes for tankers headed to Africa and Asia as Moscow is now banned from exporting fuels to the EU.

 

 

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11 hours ago, Strannik said:

China completes first yuan-settled international LNG trade

Chinese oil and gas player CNOOC and French energy giant TotalEnergies have completed China’s first yuan-settled LNG trade through the Chinese energy trading centre Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.

Huh, France goes Yuan.  So, back to Freedom Fries then?

Edited by glenn239
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Washington has stepped in to criticize Sunday’s announcement where eight OPEC+ producers — including group leader Saudi Arabia and key allies Kuwait and the UAE — said they would remove more than a combined 1 million barrels per day from global oil markets, as part of an independent initiative unlinked to the broader OPEC+ policy.

This adds to Russia’s existing intentions to trim 500,000 barrels per day of its own production from February output levels, now until the end of the year — bringing the combined voluntary cuts of OPEC+ members in excess of 1.6 million barrels per day.

“We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment, given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said, according to Reuters.

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  • The U.S. dollar, which has been the currency of choice in oil trade since the 1970s, is still the dominant currency in the market
  • While the Chinese currency has made inroads in global trade, the yuan accounts for just 2.7% of the market
  • Several deals and summits in recent weeks signaled that China and Russia are moving to try to sideline the U.S. dollar.

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-And-Russia-Look-To-Challenge-The-Petrodollar.html

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  • Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) banned oil sales made independently by the government of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan (KRG)

in northern Iraq should be seen in the context of the Saudi Arabia-Iran relationship resumption deal done on 10 March

 

  • And that context is more easily explained if the deal is written not as the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal, but rather as the Saudi Arabia/OPEC-China/Russia/Shia Crescent of Power deal. The Shia Crescent of Power comprises most notably Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Turkey (25 percent Shia and still furious at not being accepted fully into the European Union) is on the periphery of this group.

 

  • The last part of the jigsaw was revealed exclusively by OilPrice.com just after the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal in a comment made by a very high-ranking official from the Kremlin that: “By keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq – and closer to the new Iran-Saudi axis - the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West’s final demise.” 

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Western-Oil-Companies-Are-Not-Welcome-In-Iraq-But-Russian-And-Chinese-Ones-Are.html

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Will EVs Really Crush All Oil And Gas Demand?

 

  • There’s no denying that rapid adoption of EVs is bad news for global oil demand, the reality is probably nowhere near as dire as some analysts have claimed.
  • Energy Intelligence Group has predicted that not only will oil demand grow in 2023 but it will continue doing so till the end of the decade.
  • Demand growth will come mostly from petrochemicals, and transportation demand for fuels isn’t’ likely to fall off a cliff either.

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Will-EVs-Really-Crush-All-Oil-And-Gas-Demand.html

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Russian Oil Product Exports Reach Record High Despite Embargo

 31.2% year-on-year increase and just over the previous record of 3.1 million bpd exported in February 2022

 

  • The G7 economies, the European Union, and Australia all stopped buying Russian oil products in February 2023, with the EU setting additional price caps for diesel, fuel oil, and other products
  • At the same time, the EU lifted sanctions and price caps on Russian-extracted oil products that are produced outside the country and mixed with other suppliers’ oil products

 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/05/russian-oil-product-exports-reach-record-high-despite-embargo-a80715

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Russia's Oil Revenues Rebound As Exports Surge To Three-Year High

Russia's fuel exports jumped by 450,000 bpd to 3.1 million bpd, the IEA said.

Oil export revenues are estimated to have rebounded by $1 billion from February levels to $12.7 billion in March. Yet, revenues were still 43% lower than a year ago due to the lower international prices and the wide discounts at which Russian oil trades relative to international benchmarks.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Revenues-Rebound-As-Exports-Surge-To-Three-Year-High.html

 

 

Quote

 

... customs statistics from the major new buyers of Russian crude like India and China shows there are almost no discounts for Russian crude. 

If there are discounts they are nowhere near published and observed Ural's prices which suggested discounts are 30-40%. 

Otoh we don't know where all that money goes and where are the great difference between published Ural's prices at which people think Russia sells it's crude and almost non-discounted prices that India and China buys crude whom that money are ending up with

 

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89077

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