A Peace Settlement to the Ukraine War

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

@Roman Alymov The old Marxist dream of the demise of capitalism?

I'm affraid you are overfixated with this old bearded German couple  - world is not limited to them.

 

[urbanoid]

8 minutes ago, futon said:

What's your view about some of the details related to Wang Jingwei and how it relates to the cause and result of the Pacific War.

My 'details, details' was about the late USSR coup attempt. 

[futon]

1 minute ago, urbanoid said:

My 'details, details' was about the late USSR coup attempt. 

Because Poland is buying M1s and giving aid to Ukraine. So selective details to appease the glory narrative.

[Roman Alymov]

55 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Because Stalin decided not to hold it on May 8th like everyone else.

So it was Stalin who have invented time zones?  

"The second German Instrument of Surrender was scheduled to be signed on May 8 under more formal circumstances at the Soviet military headquarters in Berlin, with the celebrated Marshal Georgy Zhukov signing for the Soviets, Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel for the Germans and Gen. Dwight Eisenhower’s deputy for the Allies. But various holdups meant that the signers didn’t actually get to sign the second surrender document until around 1 a.m. on May 9.

But that’s not why Russia celebrates V-E Day on May 9 today.

SO IF THE NAZIS ACTUALLY SURRENDERED MAY 9, WHY DOES MOST OF THE WORLD CELEBRATE ON MAY 8?
Because the first, Reims version of the surrender document had already specified that German forces were to lay down their arms by 11:01 p.m. on May 8 — and because the governments had already told both their soldiers and the general public exactly that, it was agreed that the signers would backdate this second, more formal document to reflect the time already stated in the Reims document. So they fudged the time and date.

Thus, the second, final and “official” surrender of Nazi Germany was “officially” signed 11:01 p.m. … on May 8. Which is the date the U.S. and most of Europe recognize as V-E Day.

OK, THEN IF THE NAZIS ‘OFFICIALLY’ SURRENDERED MAY 8, WHY DO THE RUSSIANS CELEBRATE ON MAY 9?
Even though everyone involved officially recognized the Berlin surrender document as being signed and effective at 11:01 p.m. on May 8, Moscow was in a different time zone than Berlin. In 1944, Moscow was two time zones ahead of Berlin. Today, it’s one time zone ahead. Sources conflict about what the time difference was in early May 1945, but the results were the same: When the final Nazi surrender document was signed in Berlin, it was already the next day in Moscow, even if just barely.

So even though basically everyone in the world to this day agrees to pretend the Nazis surrendered on May 8 for the sake of simplicity and historians’ sanity, they’re referring to the time and date in Berlin. In Moscow, it was either one minute or one hour and one minute into the next day: May 9.

So that’s why Russia celebrates on May 9."

[urbanoid]

Just now, futon said:

Because Poland is buying M1s and giving aid to Ukraine. So selective details to appease the glory narrative.

No, because aliens.

[futon]

1 minute ago, urbanoid said:

No, because aliens.

Be shy about the other side of yhe coin that has Wang Jingwei's face on it, just like the others.

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, futon said:

Be shy about the other side of yhe coin that has Wang Jingwei's face on it, just like the others.

I'm 'shy' because apart from the very basic facts I know fuck all about Wang Jingwei?

[futon]

Just now, urbanoid said:

I'm 'shy' because apart from the very basic facts I know fuck all about Wang Jingwei?

Well afterall, the America contingent has spoken nothing about him these pasts decades, can't blame you then. 

[seahawk]

16 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

So it was Stalin who have invented time zones?  

"The second German Instrument of Surrender was scheduled to be signed on May 8 under more formal circumstances at the Soviet military headquarters in Berlin, with the celebrated Marshal Georgy Zhukov signing for the Soviets, Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel for the Germans and Gen. Dwight Eisenhower’s deputy for the Allies. But various holdups meant that the signers didn’t actually get to sign the second surrender document until around 1 a.m. on May 9.

But that’s not why Russia celebrates V-E Day on May 9 today.

SO IF THE NAZIS ACTUALLY SURRENDERED MAY 9, WHY DOES MOST OF THE WORLD CELEBRATE ON MAY 8?
Because the first, Reims version of the surrender document had already specified that German forces were to lay down their arms by 11:01 p.m. on May 8 — and because the governments had already told both their soldiers and the general public exactly that, it was agreed that the signers would backdate this second, more formal document to reflect the time already stated in the Reims document. So they fudged the time and date.

Thus, the second, final and “official” surrender of Nazi Germany was “officially” signed 11:01 p.m. … on May 8. Which is the date the U.S. and most of Europe recognize as V-E Day.

OK, THEN IF THE NAZIS ‘OFFICIALLY’ SURRENDERED MAY 8, WHY DO THE RUSSIANS CELEBRATE ON MAY 9?
Even though everyone involved officially recognized the Berlin surrender document as being signed and effective at 11:01 p.m. on May 8, Moscow was in a different time zone than Berlin. In 1944, Moscow was two time zones ahead of Berlin. Today, it’s one time zone ahead. Sources conflict about what the time difference was in early May 1945, but the results were the same: When the final Nazi surrender document was signed in Berlin, it was already the next day in Moscow, even if just barely.

So even though basically everyone in the world to this day agrees to pretend the Nazis surrendered on May 8 for the sake of simplicity and historians’ sanity, they’re referring to the time and date in Berlin. In Moscow, it was either one minute or one hour and one minute into the next day: May 9.

So that’s why Russia celebrates on May 9."

Which kind of is missing the point, because in Reims the German government signed the document on the 7th, while the Russian insisted on having the definite German Instrument of Surrender and had Keitel sign another document on the 8th around 11:00pm and officially refused to recognize the document signed in Reims.

[bd1]

3 hours ago, mandeb48 said:

I think there was a referendum where people think differently....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum

 

And few month later:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

Not that it matters much what ordinary people want, but hey....

there is very hard to comprehend now, 2023 , how fast were things changing in end years of 1980´s . 

my dad spent 6 months in USA around 87-88, and when came back was bit speechless for couple days  after reading newspapers and watching tv, things , meanings, liberty of speech etc. changed so quickly in sov.union of that time.

 

in 4th grade , around 1987 iirc, i had to write letter to school prinipial explaining why i did not wanted to join young pioneers 

year later i had to make a presentation in front of class about how Estonia declared independence in 1918. 

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, seahawk said:

Which kind of is missing the point, because in Reims the German government signed the document on the 7th, while the Russian insisted on having the definite German Instrument of Surrender and had Keitel sign another document on the 8th around 11:00pm and officially refused to recognize the document signed in Reims.

What exactly point is missing? Are "Russians" (Soviets) sort of obligated to accept document they are not satisfied with?

[seahawk]

Stalin: "Today, in Reims, Germans signed the preliminary act on an unconditional surrender. The main contribution, however, was done by Soviet people and not by the Allies, therefore the capitulation must be signed in front of the Supreme Command of all countries of the anti-Hitler coalition, and not only in front of the Supreme Command of Allied Forces."

[Yama]

4 hours ago, bd1 said:

there is very hard to comprehend now, 2023 , how fast were things changing in end years of 1980´s . 

my dad spent 6 months in USA around 87-88, and when came back was bit speechless for couple days  after reading newspapers and watching tv, things , meanings, liberty of speech etc. changed so quickly in sov.union of that time.

in 4th grade , around 1987 iirc, i had to write letter to school prinipial explaining why i did not wanted to join young pioneers 

year later i had to make a presentation in front of class about how Estonia declared independence in 1918. 

In retrospect, it feels bizarre how almost everyone took for granted that bi-polar global political order was forever ossified in place and would not change: I remember reading scifi-stories which would take place like 300 years into future, and there we had same Capitalist vs Communist blocks facing each other. Then in like 2 years, it was gone.

[Ssnake]

Science-fiction was never a (successful) tool to predict the future (just like futurism as a "science" failed for obvious reasons) - but mostly a warped mirror for the present, at the time of writing, or to explore the implications of a particular idea.

[Josh]

I think the current discussion is rather pointless since outside of Roman, none of us represent the warring parties. Although the disagreement here I feel is moderate compared to what would happen if we had a Ukrainian on board.

 

Neither side has demands that can be met until both sides are so exhausted they are convinced no further goals can not be achieved. Barring some kind of massive political change in either country or NATO denying weapons, this conflict will endure.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

8 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

Science-fiction was never a (successful) tool to predict the future 

"People ask me to predict the future, when all I want to do is prevent it. Better yet, build it. Predicting the future is much too easy, anyway. You look at the people around you, the street you stand on, the visible air you breathe, and predict more of the same. To hell with more. I want better."

Ray Bradbury  https://www.azquotes.com/quote/651371

[urbanoid]

14 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

Science-fiction was never a (successful) tool to predict the future (just like futurism as a "science" failed for obvious reasons) - but mostly a warped mirror for the present, at the time of writing, or to explore the implications of a particular idea.

Political fiction is rarely successful with predicting things even 5-10 years into the future.

[Roman Alymov]

31 minutes ago, Yama said:

In retrospect, it feels bizarre how almost everyone took for granted that bi-polar global political order was forever ossified in place and would not change: I remember reading scifi-stories which would take place like 300 years into future, and there we had same Capitalist vs Communist blocks facing each other. Then in like 2 years, it was gone.

I am far from being expert in sci-fi, so my uneducated judjement is it was only true for relatively short period of time (may be from late 60th, when wide Western public have discovered USSR is superpower, not just strange country somewhere close to Arctic Ocean). Whem reading  Sargasso of Space  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sargasso_of_Space) i. soviet schoolboy, was surprised how "un-fictional" the book is - as it was just plane capitalism with piracy, combined with some high-tech. And no trace of "Capitalist vs Communist blocks facing each other"

[bojan]

47 minutes ago, Josh said:

...if we had a Ukrainian on board.

We do, multiple ones, but they seem to avoid political part of discussion like plague.

Edited July 28, 2023 by bojan

[R011]

10 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Double plus ungood Seahawk. The Soviet Union can claim to have buggered up one of Germany's armed forces, namely the Wehrmacht. That is beyond dispute (even though the Western allies bagged as many troops in North Africa as the USSR bagged in Stalingrad. But lets gloss over that).

Pointedly there were two other forces, namely the Kriegsmarine and the Luftwaffe, and they played little to no role in defeating those. How many Soviet bombers do you think ended up over Berlin before the last months of the war? How many U Boats do you think the Soviet Navy sank?

The Soviet Union paid the majority of the butchers price for defeating Nazi Germany, again beyond disputed. But that is, for a considerable amount of the time, because they werent actually very good at fighting them.. With all those condemed Soviet marshalls allowed to live, Ive little doubt things would have been very different. But then I guess Stalin must have knew what he was doing, right?

To be Mr. Picky here, the Wehrmact was he entire German arme forces - Army (Heer) Navy (Kreigsmarine) and Air Force Luftwaffe).  The Waffen SS were a separate force, though usually under Heer operational command during the war.  Much like toay where the Bundeswehr is the overall German Federal Armed Forces.

[Roman Alymov]

21 hours ago, Mike1158 said:

Quite clearly, mother Russia is in the process of falling off said cliff.  Who will hit the rocks first Putin and his 'ista's or mother Russia?

Your problem is mixing Russia with Russian elite. Let me translate from my friend Murz, who is answering to complains about inconsistency of only destroying SBU building in Dnepropetrovsk after 1.5 years of full-scale war (and 9 years of small-scale civil war) , and not destroying Kiev offices at all: 

"We simply have a completely inadequate state apparatus, including the leadership of the army, which rushes back and forth in the interests of some people, then in the interests of others, then at the request of the authorities.

And these tosses in agony are the main plot of what is happening.

And then the fun begins."

Source https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/2364

West-oriented ruling and business system of Russia, created during last 30+ years, is in agony. What will replace it - will see.

[seahawk]

The same under a different name. Do you think the cabal controlling the West will allow Russia to become free?

[Roman Alymov]

30 minutes ago, seahawk said:

The same under a different name. Do you think the cabal controlling the West will allow Russia to become free?

What cabal? There is a Russian saying "Миром правит не тайная ложа, а явная лажа" (usually attributed to modern Russian writer Pelevin)   -something in between Hanlon’s razor "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity" and "Cock-up before conspiracy".

     No way to explain by some secret "cabal" epidemy of arrogance and incompetence West is suffering from.

[BansheeOne]

BTW, I thought this was a good working definition of Russian parameters for negotiations.

Quote

The subject of post-war bargaining is the post-war structure of Ukraine - Russia won the war.

The structure of NATO and the security of Europe as a whole - Russia won the war by knockout.

Bargaining goes beyond the line of demarcation - the war ended in a draw.

Bargaining goes for Ukraine within the borders of 1991 - Russia lost the war.

If the bargaining goes for the post-war reconstruction of Russia, this will mean that Russia lost the war by knockout.

https://t.me/kramnikcat/3647

I would quibble that as noted earlier, future structure of European security might as well be about limitations being put on Russia rather than just NATO this time; and likewise, that future structure of Ukraine might well mean a partial reversal of Russian annexations, though that's probably more what he understands as "within the borders of 1991“. But I think the general categories are clear (and 3 is the most likely unless there's a strategic change in the current situation, with the "knockout" options least so).

[seahawk]

Life in Germany 2023