A Peace Settlement to the Ukraine War

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 hours ago, mkenny said:

And one of the worst  'bad decision' in recent times is  Ukrainian  becoming a NATO proxy  against Russia. . It is going to turn out as well for them as it did for the Kurds in Iraq. 

It would be more accurate to say that Putin made Ukraine a proxy against the West. This was not about NATO going east. It was about sending a message to the west that Russia was back and going to flex its fist.

[Stefan Kotsch]

17 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Avoid war with Russia in Ukraine, and you'll avoid war with Russia.  Concentrate on keeping the EU stable internally and unified in the post-NATO era that is emerging, and Europe will do fine.

This is the Yalta V.02 method. The USA, Russia and China as super powers divide the world among themselves. The insignificant rest has to fit quietly.

We will see how Yalta V.03 is accepted by the Canadians or the Greenlanders. When both are annexed by the USA. And many other states will follow this example and take what they want.

[Roman Alymov]

11 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

We will see how Yalta V.03 is accepted by the Canadians or the Greenlanders. When both are annexed by the USA. 

  President Trump (democratically elected leader of free world) tells us people of Canada and Greenland would be happy, and for sure USA are not in need of concur by China and Russia to integrate this lands. Let's wait and see to what extent it is PR and what will be real actions.

[RETAC21]

Ironically, things are perceived more clearly in the Caspian Sea:

 

[glenn239]

20 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

This is the Yalta V.02 method. The USA, Russia and China as super powers divide the world among themselves. The insignificant rest has to fit quietly.

Russia is not a superpower and the Chinese and Americans will not 'divide the world'.

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Ironically, things are perceived more clearly in the Caspian Sea:

 

You must have posted the wrong video then?  The podcaster is saying that Trump's policy is to try and turn Russia against China, which is false.  Trump's policy is an attempt to isolate Iran, yet Iran is not mentioned in the video.

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Russia is not a superpower and the Chinese and Americans will not 'divide the world'.

Putin is unfortunately firmly convinced of this. And we experience the result of this faith.

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

You must have posted the wrong video then?  The podcaster is saying that Trump's policy is to try and turn Russia against China, which is false.  Trump's policy is an attempt to isolate Iran, yet Iran is not mentioned in the video.

Watch the video, there's a clip of Trump himself saying that is his objective.

[glenn239]

19 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Watch the video, there's a clip of Trump himself saying that is his objective.

Trump's statements on his motives and objectives are often misleading.

[glenn239]

19 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Putin is unfortunately firmly convinced of this. And we experience the result of this faith.

Putin thinks no such thing and what Europe has experienced in Ukraine, Europe - including yourself - practically pounded the table and demanded.

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

what Europe has experienced in Ukraine, Europe... practically pounded the table and demanded.

Because the Ukrainians do not have the ability and competence to think and act politically independently. You wanted to tell us that? 

Because the Ukrainians are supposed to be true Russians who have strayed from the right path, so this means that Russians also not have the ability and competence to think and act politically independently? Fortunately, they have their glorious leader.

[Roman Alymov]

52 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Because the Ukrainians do not have the ability and competence to think and act politically independently. You wanted to tell us that? 

Because the Ukrainians are supposed to be true Russians who have strayed from the right path, so this means that Russians also not have the ability and competence to think and act politically independently? Fortunately, they have their glorious leader.

The glorious leader who is now fawn to West in his efforts to have the sort of surrender conditions her would be able to portray as victory, or some other glorious leader?

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Because the Ukrainians do not have the ability and competence to think and act politically independently. You wanted to tell us that? 

Because the Ukrainians are supposed to be true Russians who have strayed from the right path, so this means that Russians also not have the ability and competence to think and act politically independently? Fortunately, they have their glorious leader.

I don't give a rat's ass what the Ukrainians were thinking they were trying to accomplish by going toe to toe with the Russians from 2008 onwards, much like the motives of a pilot that was trying to land a plane which crashed don't matter in comparison to the fact that he killed everyone on board while trying.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

The glorious leader who is now fawn to West in his efforts to have the sort of surrender conditions her would be able to portray as victory, or some other glorious leader?

Feel free to knock it off with your nonsense that Putin annexing 5 Oblasts from Ukraine illegally is anything but a victory for Russia.   

[Stefan Kotsch]

38 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Ukrainians ...  going toe to toe with the Russians from 2008 onwards

You have to explain that to us please.

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

You have to explain that to us please.

Glenn know because he uses this:

That way he can channel Trump, Putin or the Ukrainians. And change time, if needed.

[Stefan Kotsch]

👍

[Wouter2]

On 3/23/2025 at 4:21 PM, glenn239 said:

Russia is not a superpower and the Chinese and Americans will not 'divide the world'.

Why would Russia not be a superpower? They have enormous territory, an enormous army, lots of nukes, lots of influence abroad (especially in Africa and parts of Asia, but even in Europe and the US), lots of natural resources, satellites and a very active military industry. Also, lots of cannon fodder and a pretty tight grip on their own population, though not quite like "dear leader". of Bestest Korea.

And they do whatever they want. What exactly is the distinction with a superpower? They don't seem to need a normally functioning economy to do what they do, and the relative lack of investment in some forms of technology is not a problem if they can easily buy what they need from several sources.

And why wouldn't the Americans and Chinese divide the world among them (and the Russians and some Arabs, I guess)? Aren't you a big proponent of the "sphere of influence" principle?

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

You have to explain that to us please.

Ukraine started moving towards the NATO camp after 2008.  The results have been counterproductive as of the time of writing.

[glenn239]

44 minutes ago, Wouter2 said:

Why would Russia not be a superpower? They have enormous territory, an enormous army, lots of nukes, lots of influence abroad (especially in Africa and parts of Asia, but even in Europe and the US), lots of natural resources, satellites and a very active military industry.

A 'superpower' virtually by definition these days is world leading in all major categories of economic and military competition.  Russia cannot qualify even from a narrow military viewpoint because it lacks the means to be world leading in air and naval forces.

Quote

Also, lots of cannon fodder and a pretty tight grip on their own population, though not quite like "dear leader". of Bestest Korea.

All opposing troops are cannon fodder, while the friendly ones are heroic martyrs.  

Quote

And they do whatever they want. What exactly is the distinction with a superpower? They don't seem to need a normally functioning economy to do what they do, and the relative lack of investment in some forms of technology is not a problem if they can easily buy what they need from several sources.

The only way Russia can make up for its inability to compete in many technical categories is to rely on China, which is more a satellite thing than a superpower thing.

Quote

And why wouldn't the Americans and Chinese divide the world among them (and the Russians and some Arabs, I guess)? Aren't you a big proponent of the "sphere of influence" principle?

India is not going to be divided up between anyone, nor is Europe or Japan.  The powers will compete and jostle for influence in places like the Middle East, Africa, and South America, but these places also will not consent to being 'divided up'.  

[Stefan Kotsch]

59 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Ukraine started moving towards the NATO camp after 2008

What's the problem?

(Has NATO conquered other countries?)

[ink]

7 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

What's the problem?

(Has NATO conquered other countries?)

Problems:

1. NATO is an alliance that has engaged in illegal foreign adventures.

2. NATO exerts pressure on countries to join whether the people want it or not (i.e. it is open to undemocratically interfering in the internal politics of countries that aren't member states).

3. NATO has its own strategic goals that often do not align with the goals of the majority of its member states (2008 is a great year to pick as an example).

4. Glenn's assertion is incorrect. Ukraine did not start moving towards NATO in 2008, NATO started moving towards Ukraine in 2008 (much to the consternation of the Europeans and the Russians... Not to mention the actual people of Ukraine, who didn't want to join NATO until about 2022).

 

EDIT: re: conquering other countries, you've heard of Afghanistan, I assume.

Edited March 25 by ink
to correct placement of parentheses... and to add a comment.

[Stefan Kotsch]

7 minutes ago, ink said:

ou've heard of Afghanistan, I assume.

Has Afghanistan been conquered? That would be new to me. And the free choice of alliance is the matter of Ukraine.

Otherwise:

Edited March 25 by Stefan Kotsch

[Stefan Kotsch]

In addition, this:

Transcript of the Interview Granted by Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov to the German Newspaper Handelblatt (Moscow, December 28, 2004)

Question: Does Russia have partner relations with the CIS countries? Or was what we saw in Ukraine an attempt to again become a superpower and influence your neighbors?

...
Russia, as nobody else, has done a great deal for these countries to become truly independent and sovereign after the USSR was gone. Respecting their sovereignty, we fully recognize their right to choose partners themselves.
...

Question: And what will be with Ukraine and Georgia?

Foreign Minister Lavrov: That will be their choice. I have already said that we respect the right of each country, including all our neighbors, to choose their partners themselves, to decide for themselves the question which organizations to join. But it will be their choice and, of course, we will proceed from what they themselves count on, how they will further build their policies, with reliance upon which partners and allies they will develop their economies.

Question: Will Russia regard them as unfriendly?

Foreign Minister Lavrov: I've already said that this will be their choice.

...

https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1696045/

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Problems:

1. NATO is an alliance that has engaged in illegal foreign adventures.

2. NATO exerts pressure on countries to join whether the people want it or not (i.e. it is open to undemocratically interfering in the internal politics of countries that aren't member states).

3. NATO has its own strategic goals that often do not align with the goals of the majority of its member states (2008 is a great year to pick as an example).

4. Glenn's assertion is incorrect. Ukraine did not start moving towards NATO in 2008, NATO started moving towards Ukraine in 2008 (much to the consternation of the Europeans and the Russians... Not to mention the actual people of Ukraine, who didn't want to join NATO until about 2022).

 

EDIT: re: conquering other countries, you've heard of Afghanistan, I assume.

But the conflict in the Ukraine was mostly about joining the EU. NATO is imho just a Russian excuse, because NATO is just a military organisation and not much concerned about how a country is actually run. (see Turkey)

The EU on the other hand requires a country to change and it is obvious that from a Russian point of view, the
idea of the Ukraine developing similarly as the East European countries after joining the EU, would become a problem in the next 2 decades. Because a "Russian" country turning into a working democracy and experiencing economic growth while providing individual freedoms to its citizens, is an automatic threat  to any autocratic ruler in Moscow.