A Peace Settlement to the Ukraine War

[Mike1158]

Ukraine is the homeland of those fighting for freedom, there is a certain amount of positive energy in that.

 

How long will Russian families accept losing their loved ones for an external land grab?

 

It is not their land, the investment is low and they know the people who want it are self interested grandstanders.  How long will it take for the next rebellion to take place?  How long before more Russians take up the fight to free THEIR nation from the Putinista's?  Can you guarantee Putin and kin will survive the next chapter?

[sunday]

This remembers me of that old saying about one having the right to his own's opinions, but not to his own's facts.

[seahawk]

Ukraine is Russia.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

Ukraine is Russia.

Russia is Ukraine, to be the Tanknet pedant.

[Stuart Galbraith]

7 hours ago, Mike1158 said:

Ukraine is the homeland of those fighting for freedom, there is a certain amount of positive energy in that.

 

How long will Russian families accept losing their loved ones for an external land grab?

 

It is not their land, the investment is low and they know the people who want it are self interested grandstanders.  How long will it take for the next rebellion to take place?  How long before more Russians take up the fight to free THEIR nation from the Putinista's?  Can you guarantee Putin and kin will survive the next chapter?

In the end it comes down to what we said at the beginning of the war. If Russians lose the war, they can go home. If Ukrainians lose the war, there will be no Ukraine. Im sure there are some people complaining there about the high casualties. They have been at war for over a year and a half now. Of course some people are going to have doubts and blame the Government for it taking so long.

But if Ukraine does not achieve its ends of security, this war will start again, and Russia will keep coming back until they achieve all their ends.The Ukrainians clearly understand this. Its no good us being monday morning quarterbacks pointing out what deal they could accept. The only deal that is going to guarantee their security is NATO, and they arent going to get that unless they achieve a decisive victory. Maybe not even then.

Just think, if a few more Politicians had shown some courage over the past 9 years, this war likely would never have even happened. But we were scared of Putin, and we are still. We arent going to push a deal against Russia in circumstances like that, and its Russia, not Ukraine, that is the key player here.

[alejandro_]

46 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The Ukrainians clearly understand this. Its no good us being monday morning quarterbacks pointing out what deal they could accept. The only deal that is going to guarantee their security is NATO, and they arent going to get that unless they achieve a decisive victory. Maybe not even then.

Again, back in March 2022 it was not the case and they were ready to accept a neutral status with security guarantees from several countries.  

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Russia is Ukraine, to be the Tanknet pedant.

Not it is not. The Ukraine is a a part of the Russian Empire.

[BansheeOne]

53 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

Again, back in March 2022 it was not the case and they were ready to accept a neutral status with security guarantees from several countries.  

But again, that was when they were hanging on by the skin of their teeth, and they jumped at the chance for a settlement on largely Russian terms, offered by the latter because their grandiose design for a 15-day-operation to take Kiev had failed just as grandiosely. At that point neither side was sure where they were going, but Russia clearly had the upper hand until their logistics in northern Ukraine became untenable and they had to withdraw. After that the equation changed, and both settled in for the long haul. Now Russia is in no position to make the same offer again, because Ukraine has no need to take it.

That doesn't mean a potential settlement won't include security guarantees other than NATO membership; in fact lots of people in the West are currently busy coming up with possible models. Biden has of course floated the "Israeli" one, which if you look at the original would probably entail the US continuing to pour several billion in military aid per year into Ukraine and running diplomatic top cover, but being under no obligation to fight for them. You could expand that to any number of other guarantor states, NATO or otherwise. Of course Ukraine would probably want something more solid involving actual Western troops.

[FALightFighter]

42 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Not it is not. The Ukraine is a a part of the Russian Empire.

I guess it depends on when you start counting. The cultural continuity begins with Kievan Rus, and the center of power later shifts to Moscow.

Unless we're going to demand that France and Romania are Italian, that England is Welsh, or that Turkey is Hittite, you have to accept some sort of comparatively recent ability to adjust national boundaries and adapt nationalism. I think that means, in this case, that we accept the Ukrainian people's decision for independence in 1991, as guaranteed by pretty much everyone, and disallow the forcible adjustment to those boundaries.

[sunday]

Is the Tibet Chinese?

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

Not it is not. The Ukraine is a a part of the Russian Empire.

No, Kyvian Rus was the start point OF the Russian Empire. All of Russia are belong Ukraine.

[Stuart Galbraith]

22 minutes ago, sunday said:

Is the Tibet Chinese?

No, and the Balts werent Russian.

[seahawk]

37 minutes ago, FALightFighter said:

I guess it depends on when you start counting. The cultural continuity begins with Kievan Rus, and the center of power later shifts to Moscow.

Unless we're going to demand that France and Romania are Italian, that England is Welsh, or that Turkey is Hittite, you have to accept some sort of comparatively recent ability to adjust national boundaries and adapt nationalism. I think that means, in this case, that we accept the Ukrainian people's decision for independence in 1991, as guaranteed by pretty much everyone, and disallow the forcible adjustment to those boundaries.

Which decision? The criminal destruction of the Soviet Union?

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

Which decision? The criminal destruction of the Soviet Union?

USSR's dissolution is the best thing that happened to Russia.

[Stuart Galbraith]

It was the best gift the world ever received.

 

As far as peace discussions are concerned, this neatly underlines the problem.

 

When it came to the Kremlin’s willingness to lay its cards on the table, the former official stated: “We were given some access to the Kremlin’s thinking, though not as much as we would have liked.” 

From his vantage point, sitting across from senior Kremlin officials and advisers, it was apparent that the greatest issue was that the Russians were unable to articulate what exactly they wanted and needed. 

“They don't know how to define victory or defeat. In fact, some of the elites to whom we spoke had never wanted the war in the first place, even saying it had been a complete mistake,” he said. 

“But now they’re at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys.”

[alejandro_]

This is a first, in the past there were talks about another referendum in Crimea, but not in these other regions:

He noted that Washington had also offered to help conduct fair referendums in the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in which residents would vote on whether they wished to be part of Ukraine or Russia. 

Russia apparently declined this offer and claimed to have annexed the territories in September 2022 following referendums widely viewed as a sham.

[Strannik]

2 hours ago, alejandro_ said:

This is a first, in the past there were talks about another referendum in Crimea, but not in these other regions:

He noted that Washington had also offered to help conduct fair referendums in the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in which residents would vote on whether they wished to be part of Ukraine or Russia. 

Russia apparently declined this offer and claimed to have annexed the territories in September 2022 following referendums widely viewed as a sham.

You are quoting from this piece

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/former-us-official-shares-details-of-secret-track-15-diplomacy-with-moscow-a81972

It's has interesting, but dated info.

Interesting also the timing of this "leak" - right after the sorry state and prospects of the Uke grand offensive. 

Obvious deadline for Buden admin is elections - they would want something they can sell as if not Uke victory then at least as positive development.

[Josh]

9 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Obvious deadline for Buden admin is elections - they would want something they can sell as if not Uke victory then at least as positive development.

Ukraine is a non issue in US politics. Clearly a peaceful resolution to the conflict accepted by both sides would be somewhat beneficial, but short of a complete collapse of Ukraine, the situation there is unlikely to influence US politics significantly. Even a resounding Ukrainian victory or a peace that leads to a return of Feb 2022 borders would probably have almost no effect on voting.

[Strannik]

5 minutes ago, Josh said:

Ukraine is a non issue in US politics. Clearly a peaceful resolution to the conflict accepted by both sides would be somewhat beneficial, but short of a complete collapse of Ukraine, the situation there is unlikely to influence US politics significantly. Even a resounding Ukrainian victory or a peace that leads to a return of Feb 2022 borders would probably have almost no effect on voting.

I disagree.   It's not your usual exotic forpol issue.  A deteriorating situation (and likely it will for Ukes) and neverending billions in help on the background of inflation and possible recession+ corruption allegations might become  a major election issue.

[Stuart Galbraith]

If Biden winning were dependent on Ukrainian victory, he would be dumping everything they wanted on them.  I think he is wary of presenting an escalating cost, even though its the cost primarily in equipment bought in the Clinton and Bush administrations.

[Josh]

16 minutes ago, Strannik said:

I disagree.   It's not your usual exotic forpol issue.  A deteriorating situation (and likely it will for Ukes) and neverending billions in help on the background of inflation and possible recession+ corruption allegations might become  a major election issue.

Biden corruption allegations are a completely separate issue.

Short of Ukrainian collapse, no one cares. A collapse could be viewed as another Afghanistan withdrawal type failure, but even a mildly successful Russian offensive in the east (Bakhmut Part II) wouldn't be noticed in the US. Your mileage may differ.

[TrustMe]

I think that any result other than Russian victory is what Putin is after. He has staked his reputation on this conflict, and anything other than victory will be the end of his political career.

[Josh]

2 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

I think that any result other than Russian victory is what Putin is after. He has staked his reputation on this conflict, and anything other than victory will be the end of his political career.

It isn't clear what "victory" means for the Russians at this point. At least in terms of what they could realistically achieve. Though I assume holding on to what they've already annexed would be a prerequisite. It's hard to imagine them achieving significantly more than that without another major call up.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well more than that perhaps. He is a Gangster. How many retired Capos are there outside Prison?

There was a wonderful scene in 'A Piece of Cake' when a well named senior officer called Baggy Bletchley gets his testicles caught under the toilet seat in the middle of an air raid. He couldnt sit down because it hurt like hell. He couldnt stand up, because it hurt even worse. So he sat there in a half croach, waiting for the German bombs to kill him.

And that, pretty much, is where Putin is right now.

[Mike1158]

6 hours ago, seahawk said:

Not it is not. The Ukraine is a a part of the Russian Empire.

Hahahahahahahahahaha,   Seriouslyy funny, I must sit down more when I read your posts.

 

You are living outside of Russia yet are pro Russia to the point of accepting genocide to make Putin and his pillox look good.  Why nopt go to Russia?  Granted you might be conscripted but you are so pro Russia that is an honour, right?

 

Wjen the soviet union collapsed the majority of the nations involved were 'dispensed with' and independance ratified by the Russian parliament.  This is a matter of record.  So, how on earth do you rationalise the actions since 2014 etc?  The enclaves being claimed in several independant states.  The interferance in the affairs of state of these sovreign nations.  The genocide.  The murders, within Russia as well as outwith the borders of Russia.

 

Comrade, your emperor will no doubt greet you in the halls of the Kremlin with a massive smile and as soon as your use is done, get rid of you with a shiny window or a glow in the dark herbal tea.  You are a herow of the soviet union..........

 

Excuse me, the bathroom telephone is calling me.

7 hours ago, seahawk said:

Not it is not. The Ukraine is a a part of the Russian Empire.