A Peace Settlement to the Ukraine War

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, Stargrunt6 said:

 

 

Gonna bookmark these for when the smoke clears.

Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq. Corrupt regimes abuse the aid they are given. It's not to say it shouldn't be given. But it has a price tag if there's no accountability.

https://www.historynet.com/south-vietnam-corruption/

 

So... South Vietnam was corrupt, so what? Supporting them was still the right thing to do. There was a period when South Korea and Taiwan were also incredibly corrupt, still deserved support. To a degree the same can be said about countries that became new EU/NATO members. In short? It got better, in every case... except South Vietnam, because it was thrown under the bus.

[sunday]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

That's right, that's why one should not be parroting zigger putinist propaganda. 

Nor neocon propaganda. Especially now that the neocon doctrine is waning.

[urbanoid]

Just now, sunday said:

Nor neocon propaganda. Especially now that the neocon doctrine is waning.

Trump chose to parrot the zigger one though. Mistakes of one approach (and certainly the West made mistakes since 2014, primarily in not deterring Russia, starting with Obama telling the Ukrainians not to fight in Crimea) do not imply that the exactly opposite one is correct, nor does it mean that the enemy was right all along. 

[sunday]

6 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Trump chose to parrot the zigger one though. Mistakes of one approach (and certainly the West made mistakes since 2014, primarily in not deterring Russia, starting with Obama telling the Ukrainians not to fight in Crimea) do not imply that the exactly opposite one is correct, nor does it mean that the enemy was right all along. 

That is BS, and you should know it.

That, or Mearsheimer is another Putinist drone.

Edited February 20 by sunday

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, sunday said:

That is BS, and you should know it.

That, or Mearsheimer is another Putinist drone.

In practice he is, looking for faults within the West and making excuses for the enemies of the West. The proper way is doing the exactly opposite thing, preferably with a touch of dehumanisation of the enemies. 

[sunday]

8 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

In practice he is, looking for faults within the West and making excuses for the enemies of the West. The proper way is doing the exactly opposite thing, preferably with a touch of dehumanisation of the enemies. 

Ooookay...

[Mighty_Zuk]

When I say Trump's strategy of pressuring Europe and Ukraine more than Russia, and dialogue over force with Iran, is just the better of 2 bad options (aka lesser evil), I really do mean the price to be paid for that is quite high.

It could mean Russia can avoid facing the hardest consequences of the war yet, that are just starting to set in. Some are described below well.

EDIT: I heard some reports of Trump freezing arms transfers to Ukraine. If true, even within the described above strategy, that's IMO entirely unnecessary and is an overkill. The intent should be pressure, not punishment. Arms bought by Europe for Ukraine is a type of defense expenditure that should be incentivized so this may be counterproductive.

The reason I say "If true" is because Trump has a history of manufactured crises that are quickly resolved in the US's favor, like with Mexico.

Zelensky refused Trump's natural resources deal, but I'm sure Zelensky will come up with another plan that's more fair to both sides, and Trump will quickly accept it and declare victory.

 

Edited February 20 by Mighty_Zuk

[ink]

16 hours ago, urbanoid said:

In practice he is, looking for faults within the West and making excuses for the enemies of the West. The proper way is doing the exactly opposite thing, preferably with a touch of dehumanisation of the enemies. 

The whole point of the West is to allow dissenting voices to enrich the discourse (and, in the case of Mearshimer, provide some much needed balance), if you shut them down then you're pretty quickly not going to be 'the West' anymore.

Edited February 21 by ink
to clarify stuff

[urbanoid]

44 minutes ago, ink said:

The whole point of the West is to allow dissenting voices to enrich the discourse (and, in the case of Mearshimer, provide some much needed balance), if you shut them down then you're pretty quickly not going to be 'the West' anymore.

I'm not saying not to allow him to spew his bullshit, I'm for calling him cringe and gay for it.

[ink]

54 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

I'm not saying not to allow him to spew his bullshit, I'm for calling him cringe and gay for it.

Well then that's ok 😎

[Roman Alymov]

On 2/19/2025 at 6:50 PM, Yama said:

'Moscow' is a Finnic name, y'know. Seems to me we would have all the right to have it back!

Finns are not the only Finno-Ugric tribe, and most of this tribes are now living in Russia. More over, Finno-Ugric tribes were among "founding members" of tribal union that later became Russia. So it is safe to say Finno-Ugors have newer lost  Moscow, no need for them to " to have it back". More over, one could say that Finno-Ugors outside Russia are unlucky splinters of the unity that spreads from Baltic to Pacific.

 

[Roman Alymov]

"If someone in February 2022 said: no war, stop the war, then this person was against Putin and could easily go to jail. 
 But now such statements, on the contrary, show that a person stands for Putin.  An absurdity on a cosmic scale. We live in this absurdity. And we don't notice it.
We have already seen such radical turns in the vector of state policy and propaganda in 2014 .
Now it's all over again!
Such ideological excesses do not reflect well on the psychological state of Russian society .
Fickleness and the feeling that the authorities have once again f*d and deceived you have never ended well" ( https://t.me/donbass_skripnik/20314 )

Edited February 21 by Roman Alymov

[glenn239]

19 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

When I say Trump's strategy of pressuring Europe and Ukraine more than Russia, and dialogue over force with Iran, is just the better of 2 bad options (aka lesser evil), I really do mean the price to be paid for that is quite high.

It could mean Russia can avoid facing the hardest consequences of the war yet, that are just starting to set in. Some are described below well.

 

 

 

ISW has had a poor track record for predicting the course of this war.  

[Roman Alymov]

"I am probably expected to comment on the recent direct negotiations between the delegations of the Russian Federation and the United States. Well, so far, unfortunately, information about the content of the conversations is "about zero" — our diplomats "beam with optimism on duty," but they don't say anything specific on the main (to date) issue "from the word at all." That is, the prospects for the cessation of hostilities are still "in the fog of war." Trump is also "radiant with optimism," but this is natural for him: the United States has achieved major foreign policy success, at least by being able to "monopolize mediation functions," and this in diplomacy is in itself a considerable achievement. Let me remind you that the "previous  time" the United States brokered peace between Russia and its military opponent was over 120 years ago, at the end of the Russian—Japanese War (which ended with the Portsmouth Peace Treaty signed in the United States). 

What exactly the United States has "exposed" to us (Russia) as the conditions (of its terms) of the "settlement" — I, like everyone, of course, do not know. I can only suspect that these conditions are "not very good for us" — that's why they are not being announced (at least for now). I completely disagree with the opinion of some of my correspondents and "colleagues" that "Trump will give us Ukraine for an alliance against China." I am sure that Trump will not "give" us anything at all, but he can "take a lot" for the very possibility of "honorable surrender" and promises to forgive everything (which are worth absolutely nothing to him, the United States, or the establishment of the United States). At the same time, Trump will not in the least interfere with his NATO allies and will even actively (more actively than now) support "Ukraine" as a "whip" forcing Moscow to make exactly the decisions/concessions that the United States/Trump is quite happy with.

Some people are actively rejoicing that, they say, "Ukraine is not a subject of negotiations." — Yes, it really is. But no one can deprive "Ukraine" of the status of a military opponent of Russia, which managed during the 3 years of the war not only to avoid defeat, but also by the end of this time to confront the Russian Armed Forces on EQUAL TERMS (or almost on equal terms, which is identical to the first statement). Therefore, it is too early to "discount Ukraine" (or rather, its leadership and "politicum") — whether Washington (and Moscow) wants it or not, they will have to take Kiev's opinion and position into account. And it is clear — "no territorial concessions" (and this is the minimum). It was possible (and necessary) to change the situation by "dramatically raising the stakes" and defeating the Ukrainian Armed Forces (at least by inflicting a heavy defeat). But now, as far as I understand, there is no question about this in Moscow, which in itself causes our weakness in negotiating positions. 

To summarize, I do not predict an early (weeks/months) end to the war, and I do not predict an improvement in the overall situation either. The systemic crisis in which our state finds itself still has no prospect of "resolving" and will deepen.
Sincerely, I. V. Girkin
19.02.2025" ( https://t.me/strelkovii/6979 )

[Roman Alymov]

President Lukashenko: "You can see how the political situation is changing, which has dominated the economy in connection with US policy and so on. But you don't have to flatter yourself. We don't know what the United States wants. I'm saying this because I'm completely immersed in these issues. We don't know what they will demand from the Russians for ending the war and so on. It seems to me that they will try to push the Russians against the Chinese now. That's what the Russians should not allow." (https://t.me/oper_goblin/33872)

[txtree99]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

 

ISW has had a poor track record for predicting the course of this war.  

And you do?

[seahawk]

The deal can be simple.

• ceasefire 
• disarment of the pro-Ukrainian forces
• occupation by a peace force made from Russian troops and other willing countries
• a referendum questioning if the people in the territory formerly called the Ukraine want to be Russian
• integration into Russia
• the EU is forced to pay reparations towards Russia for damage caused by the war they initiated

 

In addition Russia and the USA sign a treaty that ends all sanctions and grants US companies full access to raw materials in Russia. If the EU fails to comply with the payment of reparations both will sanction the EU.

Edited February 21 by seahawk

[Stefan Kotsch]

9 minutes ago, seahawk said:

In addition Russia and the USA sign a treaty that ... grants US companies full access to raw materials in Russia.

This is a really good idea now. Roman will be pleased. 

The debts grow. While everyone is waiting for the return of western brands, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to buy goods abroad

Exhausted importers hope for a positive outcome of the peace talks.

...

Of course, this indicates that despite all the efforts of the Russian economy to bypass the barriers, difficulties in processing the foreign trade occur.

...

The variety of products also suffers. Payment difficulties force some foreign suppliers to reduce their delivery quantities or to give up business with Russian contractual partners. The supply of delivery affects high technology products and equipment, in particular ...

...

https://msk1.ru/text/economics/2025/02/21/75132650/

Edited February 21 by Stefan Kotsch

[mandeb48]

Russia is on the brink of collapse again?

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

The deal can be simple.

• ceasefire 
• disarment of the pro-Ukrainian forces
• occupation by a peace force made from Russian troops and other willing countries
• a referendum questioning if the people in the territory formerly called the Ukraine want to be Russian
• integration into Russia
• the EU is forced to pay reparations towards Russia for damage caused by the war they initiated

 

In addition Russia and the USA sign a treaty that ends all sanctions and grants US companies full access to raw materials in Russia. If the EU fails to comply with the payment of reparations both will sanction occupy the EU.

FIFY

[Yama]

On 2/20/2025 at 10:36 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

People really need to stop playing the 'oh its all a ruse to make people do what he wants.' He is clearly not that clever. His negotiating tactic promising Ukraine would never join NATO, and that Zelensky is a Dictator is clear evidence he is thick as 6 month old concrete.

Hey, isn't it great that that senile old Biden is no longer the president?

[glenn239]

52 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

Russia is on the brink of collapse again?

Sounds from Stefan's article that Russians are having some difficulty buying goods from abroad.  On the front lines, the Ukrainian army is in an accelerating state of collapse and there are reports that Musk is about to terminate Starlink support on the front lines.  Further back, Russian FAB production is nearly doubling to 75,000 bomb glide kits for the 2025 season.  I leave it to Stefan to figure out which of these things is the least important to battlefield developments.

[Stuart Galbraith]

14 minutes ago, Yama said:

Hey, isn't it great that that senile old Biden is no longer the president?

'Here comes the new Boss, same as the old boss...'

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Sounds from Stefan's article that Russians are having some difficulty buying goods from abroad.  On the front lines, the Ukrainian army is in an accelerating state of collapse and there are reports that Musk is about to terminate Starlink support on the front lines.  Further back, Russian FAB production is nearly doubling to 75,000 bomb glide kits for the 2025 season.  I leave it to Stefan to figure out which of these things is the least important to battlefield developments.

Would this be the same collapsing Ukrainian army that's just driven the Russian Army back from Pokrovsk?

[seahawk]

39 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

FIFY

Thank you - much better.