ink Posted February 9 Posted February 9 Who knows how this will turn out, but you've gotta hope, don't ya? https://www.euronews.com/2025/02/09/trump-reveals-hes-already-talked-with-putin-about-the-war-in-ukraine
Roman Alymov Posted February 9 Posted February 9 "Igor Strelkov on possible peace talks Statements by Russian officials that they are ready to talk to legitimate representatives of Ukraine, whom they somehow saw in the form of the Verkhovna Rada and do not see in Zelensky, have led me into deep despair. In general, to talk about negotiations with Ukraine in the situation when we have not inflicted a tangible defeat on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when the enemy is still on the territory of the so—called "old" regions of the Russian Federation, this, in any case, is not a strong position. And the rest... One of my colleagues here made it very clear, I'll just use his words, I fully agree with him: what difference does it make whether a legitimate partner leads you by the nose or an illegitimate one. It is absolutely clear that the Rada is packed with no less nationalist and anti-Russian elements than Zelensky's entourage. In principle, the entire current Ukrainian political community is no different from Zelensky. What our officials saw more legitimately in the representatives of the State Rada of Ukraine, why they are ready to negotiate with them, is completely incomprehensible to me personally. It is clear that Ukraine will play for time untill NATO countries be ready to provide direct military assistance to it on a larger scale and more decisively than they have done so far. The fact that we are ready to negotiate, and not ready to fight to victory, is our weakness, this is the "Yugoslav option", which I have spoken about many times." https://t.me/strelkovii/6970
TrustMe Posted February 9 Posted February 9 Does anyone know which country the peace talks are taking place in?
Roman Alymov Posted February 9 Posted February 9 1 hour ago, TrustMe said: Does anyone know which country the peace talks are taking place in? There is no "talks" in old ColdWar-era meaning of the word. People like Abramovich&Co (who are, for some reason, representing Russian side) do not need cruiser to tarvel to negotiations, they have own yachts and palaces in any place, and extra citizenships to travel freely.
Ivanhoe Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Take with a gigantic grain of salt; https://korybko.substack.com/p/russias-foreign-spy-agency-claims Quote Russia’s foreign spy agency (SVR) claimed last week that it’s received information alleging that NATO wants to depose Zelensky through new elections, which follows US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg calling on that country to finally hold its long-delayed presidential and parliamentary ones. SVR added that the bloc will launch a large-scale information campaign to discredit Zelensky by exposing his corruption, such as the funds that he and his team supposedly stole through various means. This isn’t the first time that SVR has claimed to have knowledge of Western plots to replace Zelensky, some of which were cited and analyzed here when assessing the veracity of the one that they reported on last August, yet nothing of the sort has come to pass thus far. That, however, doesn’t mean that their latest claims shouldn’t be taken seriously. Observers should also remember that Putin himself predicted last June that the West will make moves in the first half of 2025 to replace Zelensky. I have a hard time believing anyone expects that replacing Zelensky will get rid of the corruption. Not that I know a lot about the situation, but in 3rd world countries with corruption problems, corruption is usually a matrix embedded in the economy from villages up to the capitol, and across industries.
Stefan Kotsch Posted February 10 Posted February 10 6 hours ago, Ivanhoe said: Russia’s foreign spy agency (SVR) claimed last week ... Should that be a joke now? And come, corruption... . If that were an argument, Russia would have to be attacked first.
Stefan Kotsch Posted February 10 Posted February 10 16 hours ago, TrustMe said: Does anyone know which country the peace talks are taking place in? Putin will probably favor Yalta. A photo together on the veranda after the two gentlemen divided the world among themselves. That would be a stroke of genius.
Mighty_Zuk Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Heard a German statement on Ukraine's prospects of joining NATO, indicating there are none and cited US opposition. I think the reality on the ground, regarding the long internal process and reforms an applicant must overcome, is that Ukraine should not hope to join NATO in the future. But NATO is a very limiting organization, and its benefits are not without drawbacks. To set in motion the practical realities of security pacts with the west, Ukraine should strive to secure defense industrial integration with NATO. Gradually introduce STANAG into its kit, buy kit acquired by at least one NATO member, and join other acquisition initiatives. Local investment in wartime production allows Ukraine to naturally entangle its security with the rest of Europe's by positioning itself as a major supplier of assembled weaponry and critical low-tech components and raw materials in a post-war period. This in turn would pump money into Ukraine and allow Ukraine to leverage European buildup to build its own military. If Ukraine rushes in that direction, it could, on day one of a ceasefire, sprint toward a modern, NATO-standard armed force. It therefore makes a lot of sense to me that Zelensky and Trump are in frequent contact and negotiating treasure sharing to kickstart a foundation (economy, education, return of refugees) for long term security (military overmatch vs Russia). But that also means that IMO we won't hear about proper Ukraine-Russia negotiations until the conclusion of a US-Ukraine strategy formulation.
Stefan Kotsch Posted February 10 Posted February 10 If nothing stands in the way of membership in the EU, that would be a huge advantage for Ukraine. Also with regard to security.
Mighty_Zuk Posted February 10 Posted February 10 34 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said: If nothing stands in the way of membership in the EU, that would be a huge advantage for Ukraine. Also with regard to security. I have no idea what benefits EU membership would provide, so I won't comment on that. But against the long history of European procurement woes, I'd say Ukraine should set itself as a procurement leader, not let itself be dragged behind others. Its required procurement volumes would also help it with that task. A small order of some 500 APCs or 1,000 air launched munitions would more than nudge European procurement in that direction.
Mighty_Zuk Posted February 10 Posted February 10 34 minutes ago, seahawk said: Why should Europe buy so many weapons? Weapons are necessary for security. Strong defense deters. And deterrence provides peace.
TrustMe Posted February 10 Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said: Weapons are necessary for security. Strong defense deters. And deterrence provides peace. The bad side of a strong defence is that the leaders are more likely to use it's military force in various "adventures".
Mighty_Zuk Posted February 10 Posted February 10 1 hour ago, TrustMe said: The bad side of a strong defence is that the leaders are more likely to use it's military force in various "adventures". Good. Might makes right. If the receiving side of an adventures loses, they should just stop being noobs. 43 minutes ago, seahawk said: To need defence you need to face a threat. No.
mkenny Posted February 10 Posted February 10 23 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said: Good. Might makes right. If the receiving side of an adventures loses, they should just stop being noobs. A principle that seems to have worked in a country that allows everyone to purchase their own arsenal. It's crime/murder rate in tiny in comparison to those oppressive nations that keep control of such things..............................
ink Posted February 11 Posted February 11 21 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said: If nothing stands in the way of membership in the EU, that would be a huge advantage for Ukraine. Also with regard to security. What do you mean "if nothing stands in the way of membership in the EU"? Only every single element of the pre-accession and accession process - i.e. every last part of the acquis communitaire, which has taken other new members years (or decades) to plough through. God only knows how long it would take what some have termed the most corrupt country in Europe to carry out these reforms. Or that the other member states have to unanimously ratify Ukraine's membership (can't wait to see what Orban has to say about that). And all that is without even mentioning the slight territorial dispute Ukraine has with a nuclear superpower brimming with ICBMs. The EU will never have had a prospective member state even a fraction as complicated as Ukraine (and it's had Serbia knocking on the door for the last quarter of a century).
glenn239 Posted February 11 Posted February 11 4 hours ago, ink said: The EU will never have had a prospective member state even a fraction as complicated as Ukraine (and it's had Serbia knocking on the door for the last quarter of a century). Makes sense, but the EU has quadrupled, quintupled down on Ukraine. Ask for all that sacrifice from Europe on energy prices and subsidies, just to say that Ukraine doesn't qualify, and probably never will qualify, for EU or NATO inclusion? WTF was it all about then?
seahawk Posted February 11 Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, glenn239 said: Makes sense, but the EU has quadrupled, quintupled down on Ukraine. Ask for all that sacrifice from Europe on energy prices and subsidies, just to say that Ukraine doesn't qualify, and probably never will qualify, for EU or NATO inclusion? WTF was it all about then? Stupidity, the EU believed they can poke the Russian bear and get away with it.
ink Posted February 11 Posted February 11 1 hour ago, glenn239 said: Makes sense, but the EU has quadrupled, quintupled down on Ukraine. Ask for all that sacrifice from Europe on energy prices and subsidies, just to say that Ukraine doesn't qualify, and probably never will qualify, for EU or NATO inclusion? The way I see it, the EU (aka Germany and friends) is mostly a victim in all this, that's forced to do the bidding of it's master from across the water, for fear of the ogre in the east. You keep wanting to conflate EU and NATO membership, but they are not the same thing at all. If the EU admits Ukraine by shredding all of its rules, it will destroy itself in the attempt. And neither will Ukraine benefit from membership of such a club. 1 hour ago, glenn239 said: WTF was it all about then? The EU has been doing very well from helping prospective member states in limbo and treating them as economic colonies. Ukraine would be great as one of those. The US too, of course, loves an economically and militarily subservient "ally". Neither wanted the prize to fall to Russia.
Stefan Kotsch Posted February 11 Posted February 11 Incidentally, an interesting reading has been published by ISW today. A fairly good summary of the history and what should come, or what comes when it doesn't happen. Lessons of the Minsk Deal: Breaking the Cycle of Russia's War in Ukraine https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/lessons-minsk-deal-breaking-cycle-russias-war-ukraine
glenn239 Posted February 11 Posted February 11 2 hours ago, ink said: The way I see it, the EU (aka Germany and friends) is mostly a victim in all this, that's forced to do the bidding of it's master from across the water, for fear of the ogre in the east. Contempt for Russia, not fear of Russia, is what got the EU into trouble in Ukraine in the first place. Quote You keep wanting to conflate EU and NATO membership, but they are not the same thing at all. They are not the same organization on paper. All I'm saying is that if Russia gets into a war with any EU member, it should not be surprised to soon find itself at war with NATO. Quote If the EU admits Ukraine by shredding all of its rules, it will destroy itself in the attempt. And neither will Ukraine benefit from membership of such a club. The EU has too much prestige at stake in Ukraine to play completely by its own rules.
Mighty_Zuk Posted February 11 Posted February 11 (edited) I heard around 70% of that is in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Trump is doing more than asking for resource access here. TN is funky so here's the link. https://x.com/Cappyarmy/status/1889285410221695308 Edited February 11 by Mighty_Zuk
ink Posted February 11 Posted February 11 Feel free to see this as indicative or not: https://notesfrompoland.com/2025/02/11/ukrainian-stocks-surge-on-warsaw-exchange-amid-talk-of-peace-plan/
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