A Peace Settlement to the Ukraine War

[R011]

Poland would have no issue with Russia if Russia's leadership didn't want Poland to be subservient to them, just as Poland has no real issue with Germany or Austria anymore.

[ink]

12 hours ago, R011 said:

Poland would have no issue with Russia if Russia's leadership didn't want Poland to be subservient to them, just as Poland has no real issue with Germany or Austria anymore.

Curious to see what @urbanoid will say about this.

[Stefan Kotsch]

13 hours ago, R011 said:

just as Poland has no real issue with Germany or Austria anymore.

Here in Germany, the former German territories are no longer an issue at all. Today's national borders are generally accepted. And why create stress here? We have an open market and open borders in the EU. The industry is happy with it and the citizens are pretty indifferent.
 

Russia could look at it that way and be very happy with it. But in the Kremlin you get wet trousers at the thought of a Yalta V.02.

[urbanoid]

3 hours ago, ink said:

Curious to see what @urbanoid will say about this.

I said quite a lot about that in my last post in this thread.

We might not agree with Germany about a lot of things, but we don't regard them to be a military threat, as they're not a revisionist, revanchist power. 

While history didn't end, as far as we're concerned it should have. We're totally fine with the Correct World Order(tm), Russia is not. We want to stay where we are internationally, in late 20th/early 21st century, Russia prefers 19th/early 20th.

[Yama]

On 12/6/2024 at 9:35 PM, old_goat said:

But do they have a national hero like Bandera? Yes, that Bandera, who was the leader of OUN-B. The same OUN-B which wanted to exterminate Polish people... 

Well, national hero of Mongolia is Genghis Khan...

[bojan]

Question of time passed. ~800+ years vs in the (still some) people lifetime and living memory.

[Stefan Kotsch]

In Russia, Stalin rises to new honors...

😝

[ink]

16 hours ago, urbanoid said:

I said quite a lot about that in my last post in this thread.

We might not agree with Germany about a lot of things, but we don't regard them to be a military threat, as they're not a revisionist, revanchist power. 

While history didn't end, as far as we're concerned it should have. We're totally fine with the Correct World Order(tm), Russia is not. We want to stay where we are internationally, in late 20th/early 21st century, Russia prefers 19th/early 20th.

Thanks urbanoid.

I suspected you might say as much.

Here's a question for you: let's say the AfD made it into power in Germany (not a likely prospect, but no longer one that's beyond the realms of imagination either), and started making anti-Polish noises of one kind or another. Then things would be different, no?

Same with Ukraine, imo. A good 99% of people in Ukraine are probably just ordinary folks with ordinary hopes and dreams. However, when those who're willing to push their ideology, even after two years of war, to the detriment of probably the country's most generous ally... Well, they're dangerous. And if you they're that dangerous for relations with Poland, imagine how dangerous they are for Hungarian villagers or Russian speakers in some small industrial town in the east.

Does it justify Russia's invasion? Not 1% in my opinion. But it also seems ridiculous to me to brush it under the carpet.

[urbanoid]

2 hours ago, ink said:

Here's a question for you: let's say the AfD made it into power in Germany (not a likely prospect, but no longer one that's beyond the realms of imagination either), and started making anti-Polish noises of one kind or another. Then things would be different, no?

Same with Ukraine, imo. A good 99% of people in Ukraine are probably just ordinary folks with ordinary hopes and dreams. However, when those who're willing to push their ideology, even after two years of war, to the detriment of probably the country's most generous ally... Well, they're dangerous. And if you they're that dangerous for relations with Poland, imagine how dangerous they are for Hungarian villagers or Russian speakers in some small industrial town in the east.

Does it justify Russia's invasion? Not 1% in my opinion. But it also seems ridiculous to me to brush it under the carpet.

That depends on a lot of factors, the most important one being the AfD's behaviour, but since you assumed for the sake of discussion that they're going to be anti-Polish... that still depends on a lot of other factors. Largely external ones - how Ukraine war ended, what's the status of postwar Ukraine (if there is one) and our relations with them, whether the USians are still present in Europe.... I culd go onand on. Getting closer to France would definitely be on the table as well. The whole German economic model took quite a lot of hits in recent years, no more nuclear power, no more cheap gas, exports to Chynah are not what they were meant to be (logically it has always been a temporary solution). Strengths that partially remained are the subcontractors in 'new Europe', especially Poland (though no longer cheap, another hit) with quite a lot of a captive market in the area, I'm not sure rocking that particular boat would be in their interest.

We want the Ukrainians to win (as much as possible, at least) far more than we want them to stop honoring Bandera (although we would have liked that too), because in the end it's about Russia far more than it is about Ukraine. A lot of non-official people with good heads on their shoulders, who absolutely detest banderism, UPA and the like say as much too. First thing is of strategic importance, the latter of only emotional. As far as official ones go, they have to be far more cautious in their statements, they still want the same - for Ukraine to win (i.e. survive and not become a Russian puppet) on one hand, for the other to not cause bilateral crisis, as a serious crisis would hinder our assistance to them which in turn would interfere with a task at hand. Whatever Ukraine is it's not Germany, the only time they were an actual threat were when the Polish state didn't exist, as it was occupied by the Germans. Even then they were a threat limited to certain disputed territories that Poland does not possess anymore nor should it ever again. That's going to be even more true after the war.

At this point still around half of Poles support continued assistance to Ukraine (used to be more, the drop can be largely attributed to the not-so-smart attitude of Zelensky et al towards Poland). The most vocal political opponents of supporting Ukraine are the 'far-right', 'anti-system' fringes, but those guys are also anti-EU and largely anti-NATO, which in the geopolitical reality we live in is pure madness, literally cutting off the branch we're sitting on. Ironically the same guys are yapping the loudest about 'realpolitik', when Polish support for Ukraine is the most realpolitik thing ever - we're weakening a country that is a strategic threat without paying in our own blood, only money. And in geopolitics if something only costs money, it's cheap indeed. That's why I sometimes say that actual realpolitik is one thing, but those yapping about it left and right (not just here, in the West in general) are generally a bunch of defeatists and surrender monkeys. Alternatively they can be outright traitors (and some are) or 19th century larpers longing for 'a multipolar world' - the ones from here should realize that in such a world Poland will not be one of the poles, despite the name.

PS. There's one other thing about 'Ukrainian nationalists' that escapes many people. Those 'larpers' with cool looking symbols are not Western Ukrainian followers of Bandera, they're... Russian speaking guys from Eastern/Central Ukraine, on average. And unlike those Western Ukrainian Bandera fanboys (still a tiny minority even there), they're specifically pro-Polish and have been since long before 2022. Among other things they blasted the Lviv mayor and the authorities of the oblast when they wanted to remove the sculptures of lions from the cemetery of Lviv Eaglets*. Imagine that, some democratically elected stupid asshole wanted to remove a symbol important for Poles for and the 'scary nazi far-right' told him to stick such ideas where they belong. In the end they were not only not removed, but even renovated, renovations were finished already during the war (May 2022). In the end, it doesn't really matter what they are, whether they like Poland or not, as I said they are not a threat to Poland and our goal is not the vassalization of Ukraine, we're perfectly satisfied with Russia not vassalizing them - that alone will put Ukraine in the 'correct' international camp (de facto, if not de iure) and as long as it happens we're good.

*Polish defenders of the city during the Polish-Ukrainian and later Polish-Bolshevik war. At the time the city was more than 50% Polish and there were more Jews than Ukrainians living there - similar situation as in Dalmatia, where many cities towns were largely Italian, with the countryside being 'local'. 'Eaglets' because many of them were very young - students, scouts and the like, among them was the youngest (13 y.o.) recipient of Virtuti Militari, the highest Polish military decoration. 

ETA: damn, I just started writing and it came out as quite a wall of text

Edited December 8, 2024 by urbanoid

[seahawk]

Since 2014 it is hard to say anyway, as if you are in conflict with pro-Russians, every symbol suitable to piss them off, becomes popular.

[Pavel Novak]

17 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

That depends on a lot of factors, the most important one being the AfD's behaviour, but since you assumed for the sake of discussion that they're going to be anti-Polish... that still depends on a lot of other factors. Largely external ones - how Ukraine war ended, what's the status of postwar Ukraine (if there is one) and our relations with them, whether the USians are still present in Europe.... I culd go onand on. Getting closer to France would definitely be on the table as well. The whole German economic model took quite a lot of hits in recent years, no more nuclear power, no more cheap gas, exports to Chynah are not what they were meant to be (logically it has always been a temporary solution). Strengths that partially remained are the subcontractors in 'new Europe', especially Poland (though no longer cheap, another hit) with quite a lot of a captive market in the area, I'm not sure rocking that particular boat would be in their interest.

We want the Ukrainians to win (as much as possible, at least) far more than we want them to stop honoring Bandera (although we would have liked that too), because in the end it's about Russia far more than it is about Ukraine. A lot of non-official people with good heads on their shoulders, who absolutely detest banderism, UPA and the like say as much too. First thing is of strategic importance, the latter of only emotional. As far as official ones go, they have to be far more cautious in their statements, they still want the same - for Ukraine to win (i.e. survive and not become a Russian puppet) on one hand, for the other to not cause bilateral crisis, as a serious crisis would hinder our assistance to them which in turn would interfere with a task at hand. Whatever Ukraine is it's not Germany, the only time they were an actual threat were when the Polish state didn't exist, as it was occupied by the Germans. Even then they were a threat limited to certain disputed territories that Poland does not possess anymore nor should it ever again. That's going to be even more true after the war.

At this point still around half of Poles support continued assistance to Ukraine (used to be more, the drop can be largely attributed to the not-so-smart attitude of Zelensky et al towards Poland). The most vocal political opponents of supporting Ukraine are the 'far-right', 'anti-system' fringes, but those guys are also anti-EU and largely anti-NATO, which in the geopolitical reality we live in is pure madness, literally cutting off the branch we're sitting on. Ironically the same guys are yapping the loudest about 'realpolitik', when Polish support for Ukraine is the most realpolitik thing ever - we're weakening a country that is a strategic threat without paying in our own blood, only money. And in geopolitics if something only costs money, it's cheap indeed. That's why I sometimes say that actual realpolitik is one thing, but those yapping about it left and right (not just here, in the West in general) are generally a bunch of defeatists and surrender monkeys. Alternatively they can be outright traitors (and some are) or 19th century larpers longing for 'a multipolar world' - the ones from here should realize that in such a world Poland will not be one of the poles, despite the name.

PS. There's one other thing about 'Ukrainian nationalists' that escapes many people. Those 'larpers' with cool looking symbols are not Western Ukrainian followers of Bandera, they're... Russian speaking guys from Eastern/Central Ukraine, on average. And unlike those Western Ukrainian Bandera fanboys (still a tiny minority even there), they're specifically pro-Polish and have been since long before 2022. Among other things they blasted the Lviv mayor and the authorities of the oblast when they wanted to remove the sculptures of lions from the cemetery of Lviv Eaglets*. Imagine that, some democratically elected stupid asshole wanted to remove a symbol important for Poles for and the 'scary nazi far-right' told him to stick such ideas where they belong. In the end they were not only not removed, but even renovated, renovations were finished already during the war (May 2022). In the end, it doesn't really matter what they are, whether they like Poland or not, as I said they are not a threat to Poland and our goal is not the vassalization of Ukraine, we're perfectly satisfied with Russia not vassalizing them - that alone will put Ukraine in the 'correct' international camp (de facto, if not de iure) and as long as it happens we're good.

*Polish defenders of the city during the Polish-Ukrainian and later Polish-Bolshevik war. At the time the city was more than 50% Polish and there were more Jews than Ukrainians living there - similar situation as in Dalmatia, where many cities towns were largely Italian, with the countryside being 'local'. 'Eaglets' because many of them were very young - students, scouts and the like, among them was the youngest (13 y.o.) recipient of Virtuti Militari, the highest Polish military decoration. 

ETA: damn, I just started writing and it came out as quite a wall of text

Excellent post! When some people here emphasize some old territorial disputes and injustices as reasons for not supporting Ukraine (like czech-polish conflict over Teschen) they are completely missing that in most cases these conflicts were limited and not at all existential threats for involved parties.

On the other hand there is Russian imperialism - 2022 invasion going for whole country. That is comparable only to Nazi Germany actions in ww2. Every other dispute is miniscule in comparison to this. Some minor border disputes are nothing when you have there horde with state ideology of eating its whole neighbours.

 

[urbanoid]

5 minutes ago, Pavel Novak said:

Excellent post! When some people here emphasize some old territorial disputes and injustices as reasons for not supporting Ukraine (like czech-polish conflict over Teschen) they are completely missing that in most cases these conflicts were limited and not at all existential threats for involved parties.

On the other hand there is Russian imperialism - 2022 invasion going for whole country. That is comparable only to Nazi Germany actions in ww2. Every other dispute is miniscule in comparison to this. Some minor border disputes are nothing when you have there horde with state ideology of eating its whole neighbours.

 

Just out of curiosity, have your local 'anti-system' (and inevitably pro-Russia) weirdos already come up with the argument that Ukraine should not be supported because evil banderists were murdering the Czechs in 1943? 

[Pavel Novak]

32 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Just out of curiosity, have your local 'anti-system' (and inevitably pro-Russia) weirdos already come up with the argument that Ukraine should not be supported because evil banderists were murdering the Czechs in 1943? 

Not really. At first because the "pro-nation", "historic-oriented" wing here actually doesn't know much about czech-ukrainian clashes. And for second this clash was miniscule in comparison of Moscow's massacres of soviet czechs which are much more known here.

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, Pavel Novak said:

Not really. At first because the "pro-nation", "historic-oriented" wing here actually doesn't know much about czech-ukrainian clashes. And for second this clash was miniscule in comparison of Moscow's massacres of soviet czechs which are much more known here.

Ah, right, many might have not even heard about Volhynia Czechs, not like there were a lot of those. Let's hope it stays that way, no need to make internal politics even more irrational.

[ink]

5 hours ago, urbanoid said:

That depends on a lot of factors, the most important one being the AfD's behaviour, but since you assumed for the sake of discussion that they're going to be anti-Polish... that still depends on a lot of other factors. Largely external ones - how Ukraine war ended, what's the status of postwar Ukraine (if there is one) and our relations with them, whether the USians are still present in Europe.... I culd go onand on. Getting closer to France would definitely be on the table as well. The whole German economic model took quite a lot of hits in recent years, no more nuclear power, no more cheap gas, exports to Chynah are not what they were meant to be (logically it has always been a temporary solution). Strengths that partially remained are the subcontractors in 'new Europe', especially Poland (though no longer cheap, another hit) with quite a lot of a captive market in the area, I'm not sure rocking that particular boat would be in their interest.

We want the Ukrainians to win (as much as possible, at least) far more than we want them to stop honoring Bandera (although we would have liked that too), because in the end it's about Russia far more than it is about Ukraine. A lot of non-official people with good heads on their shoulders, who absolutely detest banderism, UPA and the like say as much too. First thing is of strategic importance, the latter of only emotional. As far as official ones go, they have to be far more cautious in their statements, they still want the same - for Ukraine to win (i.e. survive and not become a Russian puppet) on one hand, for the other to not cause bilateral crisis, as a serious crisis would hinder our assistance to them which in turn would interfere with a task at hand. Whatever Ukraine is it's not Germany, the only time they were an actual threat were when the Polish state didn't exist, as it was occupied by the Germans. Even then they were a threat limited to certain disputed territories that Poland does not possess anymore nor should it ever again. That's going to be even more true after the war.

At this point still around half of Poles support continued assistance to Ukraine (used to be more, the drop can be largely attributed to the not-so-smart attitude of Zelensky et al towards Poland). The most vocal political opponents of supporting Ukraine are the 'far-right', 'anti-system' fringes, but those guys are also anti-EU and largely anti-NATO, which in the geopolitical reality we live in is pure madness, literally cutting off the branch we're sitting on. Ironically the same guys are yapping the loudest about 'realpolitik', when Polish support for Ukraine is the most realpolitik thing ever - we're weakening a country that is a strategic threat without paying in our own blood, only money. And in geopolitics if something only costs money, it's cheap indeed. That's why I sometimes say that actual realpolitik is one thing, but those yapping about it left and right (not just here, in the West in general) are generally a bunch of defeatists and surrender monkeys. Alternatively they can be outright traitors (and some are) or 19th century larpers longing for 'a multipolar world' - the ones from here should realize that in such a world Poland will not be one of the poles, despite the name.

PS. There's one other thing about 'Ukrainian nationalists' that escapes many people. Those 'larpers' with cool looking symbols are not Western Ukrainian followers of Bandera, they're... Russian speaking guys from Eastern/Central Ukraine, on average. And unlike those Western Ukrainian Bandera fanboys (still a tiny minority even there), they're specifically pro-Polish and have been since long before 2022. Among other things they blasted the Lviv mayor and the authorities of the oblast when they wanted to remove the sculptures of lions from the cemetery of Lviv Eaglets*. Imagine that, some democratically elected stupid asshole wanted to remove a symbol important for Poles for and the 'scary nazi far-right' told him to stick such ideas where they belong. In the end they were not only not removed, but even renovated, renovations were finished already during the war (May 2022). In the end, it doesn't really matter what they are, whether they like Poland or not, as I said they are not a threat to Poland and our goal is not the vassalization of Ukraine, we're perfectly satisfied with Russia not vassalizing them - that alone will put Ukraine in the 'correct' international camp (de facto, if not de iure) and as long as it happens we're good.

*Polish defenders of the city during the Polish-Ukrainian and later Polish-Bolshevik war. At the time the city was more than 50% Polish and there were more Jews than Ukrainians living there - similar situation as in Dalmatia, where many cities towns were largely Italian, with the countryside being 'local'. 'Eaglets' because many of them were very young - students, scouts and the like, among them was the youngest (13 y.o.) recipient of Virtuti Militari, the highest Polish military decoration. 

ETA: damn, I just started writing and it came out as quite a wall of text

Hey, thanks for all that - makes for very interesting reading.

And also, all of it is very reasonable indeed.

Thing is, I brought up those Ukrainian attitudes towards Poland not to suggest that Poland should change anything about what it's doing, but rather just to indicate how much the political system there has been infiltrated by people with extreme views. People on here seem very keen to dismiss that, and I'm just trying to say that it isn't something that should be dismissed so easily.

Anecdotally, some Ukrainians I know here in Belgrade (or through Russian friends) are very pro-Ukraine - in the sense that they want Ukraine to win - but are also scared of those extreme nationalist types, having had run-ins with them.

[ex2cav]

Much is happening in the world today. Moscow has some concerns to deal with in the middle east. I expect Moscow will try and negotiate with the rebels in Damascus to maintain control of the port(s) and areas they have now to maintain a status quo. Turkey, Israel and the US might be pushing for a different outcome there. 

However, it could lead Russian more to a view to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump is still an unknown, but I think it is expected he will tend towards ceasefire--- though will try a hard line before the negotiating table.

I would suspect a ceasefire to somewhat resemble the cessation of hostilities post 2014.

A. Russia will want all Ukrainians out of Russian territory. They might not get that, I would expect increasing Russian operations on the Kursk front to eject them prior to Trump assuming office.

B. Stabilization of the frontline as is, excepting minor concessions to each party. Russians would be more receptive to this than Ukraine, but I don't see an enforceable agreement until both sides acknowledge this. 

C. NATO membership for Ukraine placed on hold for ten years. Or other longer term guideline. Some "give" will have to take place to get the Russians on board and allow the Ukrainians hope that membership will happen. 

D. Formalized negotiations toward a lasting peace. Something like that has to happen even if not likely to result in positive outcomes. 

That might be the best either side could hope for in the short term. Return of POWs would take place. Russia would want Nato "advisors" and foreign fighters out of Ukraine but that is unlikely to happen. There could be talk of decreased western material assistance to Ukraine but not much will come of it. Both sides will have a chance to recoup and rebuild forces for the next round of the war. 

I wouldn't expect a lasting peace from a ceasefire agreement like the above. It would be a pause and re-armament. I don't know how much foreign investment would pour into Ukraine. War could re-spark and be a large risk to assets financially backed by foreigners . Western foreign governments will focus on Ukraine's military. Limbo for Ukraine.

Russia, at best, could satisfy themselves they would own large chunks of Ukraine; and hope for western disinterest to set in over time. Round 3 in the future? Likely, unless an extreme change of leadership and/or policy takes place. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

6 minutes ago, ex2cav said:

 NATO membership for Ukraine placed on hold for ten years.

6 minutes ago, ex2cav said:

There could be talk of decreased western material assistance to Ukraine but not much will come of it.

These 2 requests are mutually exclusive.

[Sinistar]

1 hour ago, ex2cav said:

Much is happening in the world today. Moscow has some concerns to deal with in the middle east. I expect Moscow will try and negotiate with the rebels in Damascus to maintain control of the port(s) and areas they have now to maintain a status quo. Turkey, Israel and the US might be pushing for a different outcome there. 

However, it could lead Russian more to a view to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump is still an unknown, but I think it is expected he will tend towards ceasefire--- though will try a hard line before the negotiating table.

I would suspect a ceasefire to somewhat resemble the cessation of hostilities post 2014.

A. Russia will want all Ukrainians out of Russian territory. They might not get that, I would expect increasing Russian operations on the Kursk front to eject them prior to Trump assuming office.

B. Stabilization of the frontline as is, excepting minor concessions to each party. Russians would be more receptive to this than Ukraine, but I don't see an enforceable agreement until both sides acknowledge this. 

C. NATO membership for Ukraine placed on hold for ten years. Or other longer term guideline. Some "give" will have to take place to get the Russians on board and allow the Ukrainians hope that membership will happen. 

D. Formalized negotiations toward a lasting peace. Something like that has to happen even if not likely to result in positive outcomes. 

That might be the best either side could hope for in the short term. Return of POWs would take place. Russia would want Nato "advisors" and foreign fighters out of Ukraine but that is unlikely to happen. There could be talk of decreased western material assistance to Ukraine but not much will come of it. Both sides will have a chance to recoup and rebuild forces for the next round of the war. 

I wouldn't expect a lasting peace from a ceasefire agreement like the above. It would be a pause and re-armament. I don't know how much foreign investment would pour into Ukraine. War could re-spark and be a large risk to assets financially backed by foreigners . Western foreign governments will focus on Ukraine's military. Limbo for Ukraine.

Russia, at best, could satisfy themselves they would own large chunks of Ukraine; and hope for western disinterest to set in over time. Round 3 in the future? Likely, unless an extreme change of leadership and/or policy takes place. 

 

the newswire as of right now is that trump has just concluded a meeting with zelensky

 

the details is a possible withdrawal of the united states from nato, no nato membership of ukraine, and ukraine loses territory already ceded in exchange for a frozen conflict

 

realistically russia simply is in the driver's seat

 

there is not much the west can leverage if russia believes that it can simply achieve its goals with our without a deal from trump anyway

 

part of the calculation in moscow is that it is highly likely they cut a deal now only to fight this war again sometime in the future after ukraine rests and mobilizes and there is unfinished business all over again

 

this kind of thing could meander  well after a trump leaves office or after trump's or putin's natural lifespan

 

 

[DKTanker]

On 12/7/2024 at 5:58 AM, Stefan Kotsch said:

Here in Germany, the former German territories are no longer an issue at all. Today's national borders are generally accepted. 

That's understandable as ethnic Germans were cleansed from those area.  Most who were old enough at the time of cleansing will have already passed away.  Such people as my schwiegermutter and schwiegervater, who met in a Regensburg refugee camp after having been cleansed from Silesia, have since passed. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

13 hours ago, Sinistar said:

the newswire as of right now is that trump has just concluded a meeting with zelensky

the details is a possible withdrawal of the united states from nato

[Stefan Kotsch]

12 hours ago, DKTanker said:

That's understandable as ethnic Germans were cleansed from those area.

That's not the main point. Nobody is willing to keep the topic alive or refresh it.

[glenn239]

20 hours ago, ex2cav said:

Much is happening in the world today. Moscow has some concerns to deal with in the middle east. I expect Moscow will try and negotiate with the rebels in Damascus to maintain control of the port(s) and areas they have now to maintain a status quo. Turkey, Israel and the US might be pushing for a different outcome there. 

Reports this morning that Turkish and US proxies are already fighting each other in eastern Syria and that the Russians will be allowed to keep their coastal bases.   

Quote

However, it could lead Russian more to a view to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump is still an unknown, but I think it is expected he will tend towards ceasefire--- though will try a hard line before the negotiating table.

If anything, the outcome in Syria should give the Russians even greater flexibility to pursue their war in Ukraine.

Quote

 

I would suspect a ceasefire to somewhat resemble the cessation of hostilities post 2014.

A. Russia will want all Ukrainians out of Russian territory. They might not get that, I would expect increasing Russian operations on the Kursk front to eject them prior to Trump assuming office.

B. Stabilization of the frontline as is, excepting minor concessions to each party. Russians would be more receptive to this than Ukraine, but I don't see an enforceable agreement until both sides acknowledge this. 

C. NATO membership for Ukraine placed on hold for ten years. Or other longer term guideline. Some "give" will have to take place to get the Russians on board and allow the Ukrainians hope that membership will happen. 

D. Formalized negotiations toward a lasting peace. Something like that has to happen even if not likely to result in positive outcomes. 

 

A. The Russians will not negotiate to remove Ukrainians from Russian territory.

B  The Russians are winning the war, so they are not going to go for a freeze of the conflict.  They will continue to ramp up the pressure until the Ukrainian army either completely collapses or pulls some sort of drone rabbit out of the hat to stave off further decay.

C  The Russians will not accept Ukraine in NATO on any timeframe.  

D  Negotiations require a basis for them.  Points A,B,C suggest a chasm between the sides, and if the Russians impose their own outcomes for these, then this will not be done at a negotiating table, but on the battlefield.  

Quote

 

Quote

I wouldn't expect a lasting peace from a ceasefire agreement like the above. It would be a pause and re-armament. .

That's why a ceasefire seems unlikely.  There is no point to it for ending the war, it's just a pause to allow the neocons to gather more cannon fodder in Ukraine for the next round.

Quote

Russia, at best, could satisfy themselves they would own large chunks of Ukraine; and hope for western disinterest to set in over time. Round 3 in the future? Likely, unless an extreme change of leadership and/or policy takes place. 

 If anything, I would expect that things could get worse from here, as the situation in Syria seems to have freed the Russians of a strategic albatross while having the potential to suck Israeli and American resources into a NATO on NATO proxy war.

 

 

 

 

 

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

That's not the main point. Nobody is willing to keep the topic alive or refresh it.

There are no territorial issues between Poland and Germany except the theoretical fate of Kaliningrad.  If that were to stop being Russian controlled, I assume NATO policy would be that Germany takes over administration there?

[Stefan Kotsch]

My statement also includes Kaliningrad. Nobody here has any intention of ending Russian control over Kaliningrad. 

(Furthermore, Russia does not 'control' Kaliningrad -> Kaliningrad is a accepted part of Russia under international law. )

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

If anything, the outcome in Syria should give the Russians even greater flexibility to pursue their war in Ukraine

Actually? Were so many Russian military forces and resources tied up in Syria that a dramatic change in the situation could now be expected?