A Peace Settlement to the Ukraine War

[Mighty_Zuk]

2 hours ago, ink said:

Took a look at that Politico article linked above and all I can say is that the only proposal that looks serious is the China+Brazil one, which doesn't make any statements about Ukraine's future but just calls for a ceasefire and talks.

All the other suggestions seem less well-thought out than stuff we've discussed on here.

Besides, if we know anything from looking at history, it's that agreements made in the immediate aftermath of a war usually don't then go on to be the foundation for the eventual settlement. Bosnia being an exception arguably.

Ceasefire and talks isn't a recipe for success. It's also never a serious proposal.

[Stuart Galbraith]

51 minutes ago, Yama said:

Trump doesn't even need to enter the picture: look at how difficult some recent NATO entries have been, it's obvious that getting 30 countries to agree on Ukraine joining would be impossible. It's just not going to happen, as it would increase chances of NATO going to actual, real war substantially, and most NATO countries don't want that.

 

Good to get some recognition! 😇 Nah, that was just commentary on standard Europe Universalis expansion strategy, and its absurdity.

There is the point of view that it would decrease chances of war on the European quite markedly, by including the only people on hand that successfully managed to fight the Russians to a halt. And as far as escalation, we have been told that after Ukraine, Putin expects compromises on NATO. We are naive if we think he has given up on that. Therefore, safeguard Ukraine, safeguard NATO. No, its not going to appeal to Hungary and Turkey, but in truth, nothing ever does. The other members might, just might, lap it up.

No, I dont know how this deal is supposed to work. We link Ukraine security to ours, then if we are indivisibly attacked, then we call NATO? Perhaps the smart guys have figured out an exploit in the treaty, in which case im all for it. Im dubious it will work, but in truth the only other options being offered are NATO membership or abandonment, and it seems Europe doesnt go for one or the other in equal measure. Something in between might suffice if it just gets Russia off Ukraines back and allows them to rearm.

[ink]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

Good to get some recognition! 😇 Nah, that was just commentary on standard Europe Universalis expansion strategy, and its absurdity.

Well, it works pretty well in Europa Universalis. I once invaded Britain while playing with Hungary 😆

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Any deal without physical security guarantees for Ukraine is pointless.

I agree... Except I also think just stopping the fighting is a point in and of itself. Even from the point of view of Ukraine.

[urbanoid]

There would be no point in stopping the fighting that would leave them helpless, without the external guarantees and possibly with Russian diktat on their internal policy, quite the contrary.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, this ive always said. Its always been the Russian way, fight a war, bite and hold. Its how they dismembered the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, and they will do the same to Ukraine if they can.

In fact they already did. The first bite was Crimea, though some didnt see it at the time.

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, this ive always said. Its always been the Russian way, fight a war, bite and hold. Its how they dismembered the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, and they will do the same to Ukraine if they can.

In fact they already did. The first bite was Crimea, though some didnt see it at the time.

It's somewhat easier for a not-so-democratic society to maintain a continuity of purpose. In democratic ones there's often a temptation to search for a temporary solution, there's a chance that when it finally blows up it will be in some other poor fucker's face. The consequences of a 2014 fuckup in 2022 were no longer Merkel's or Obama's problem.

[glenn239]

20 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Fresh news for you:

"The Office of the President* (AP) of Russia is preparing the regional authorities to complete a special military operation in Ukraine.

The 'pro-Russians' can't possibly believe that Putin just upped the defense budget to 35% of the state budget in order to surrender in Ukraine.  

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, ink said:

Took a look at that Politico article linked above and all I can say is that the only proposal that looks serious is the China+Brazil one, which doesn't make any statements about Ukraine's future but just calls for a ceasefire and talks.

Ceasefire is as unrealistic as all other proposals.  The Russians have zero interest to do anything except to increase the pressure and cause a total collapse of the Ukrainian army via bleed out.  

 

[Roman Alymov]

39 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The 'pro-Russians' can't possibly believe that Putin just upped the defense budget to 35% of the state budget in order to surrender in Ukraine.  

   The budget was upped to prevent (or, better say, male less likely) frontlinr collapse after another NATO offencive.  Two offencives were more or less contained, but there is no guarantee the third one would not be more successful.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

   The budget was upped to prevent (or, better say, male less likely) frontlinr collapse after another NATO offencive. 

The budget was upped to win the war.

[ink]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Ceasefire is as unrealistic as all other proposals.  The Russians have zero interest to do anything except to increase the pressure and cause a total collapse of the Ukrainian army via bleed out.  

 

Strong disagree. If the Russians can cut a deal with Trump to slacken the sanctions (probably some of them will remain, particularly those against certain individuals/companies), a ceasefire could rescue their economy from collapse. Those reserves won't last forever the way they're burning through them.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Strong disagree. If the Russians can cut a deal with Trump to slacken the sanctions (probably some of them will remain, particularly those against certain individuals/companies), a ceasefire could rescue their economy from collapse. Those reserves won't last forever the way they're burning through them.

It depends on what is "collapse". Return to the status of economic and political colony of the West is very much "collapse", while under sanctions and in war we at least have a chance to change situation.

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, ink said:

Strong disagree. If the Russians can cut a deal with Trump to slacken the sanctions (probably some of them will remain, particularly those against certain individuals/companies), a ceasefire could rescue their economy from collapse. Those reserves won't last forever the way they're burning through them.

 The Russians will not negotiate a ceasefire for sanctions relief, as they are perfectly aware that the West will reimpose the sanctions the moment that the Ukrainian army has been rebuilt using the breathing space created.  They consider themselves fooled once with the Minsk Accords.  The Russians do not think their economy is about to collapse, and they are not acting like they are 'burning through their reserves.'  They are acting like a marathon runner whose set for the long course at a sustainable pace.

IMO, the Russians intend to increase the pressure on Ukraine and trigger the total collapse of the Ukrainian army, after which they can impose their terms on Kyiv without regard to anything NATO demands.   The last thing they want is a ceasefire.  This while ramping up their missile and drone production to be ready to fight an all-out war with NATO, this increasingly likely as Sino-American relations spiral downwards.  (Thanks to the disaster that is Joe Biden, the Russians have realized via this avoidable war that their drones and missiles are capable of dealing with USAF stealth airpower more effectively than SAM's and fighters, and are building frantically to that end).

 

Edited December 5, 2024 by glenn239

[seahawk]

6 hours ago, glenn239 said:

 The Russians will not negotiate a ceasefire for sanctions relief, as they are perfectly aware that the West will reimpose the sanctions the moment that the Ukrainian army has been rebuilt using the breathing space created.  They consider themselves fooled once with the Minsk Accords.  The Russians do not think their economy is about to collapse, and they are not acting like they are 'burning through their reserves.'  They are acting like a marathon runner whose set for the long course at a sustainable pace.

IMO, the Russians intend to increase the pressure on Ukraine and trigger the total collapse of the Ukrainian army, after which they can impose their terms on Kyiv without regard to anything NATO demands.   The last thing they want is a ceasefire.  This while ramping up their missile and drone production to be ready to fight an all-out war with NATO, this increasingly likely as Sino-American relations spiral downwards.  (Thanks to the disaster that is Joe Biden, the Russians have realized via this avoidable war that their drones and missiles are capable of dealing with USAF stealth airpower more effectively than SAM's and fighters, and are building frantically to that end).

 

Fully agree. Russia knows that the war with the West will last for decades and it needs at total denazification of the Ukraine.

[glenn239]

9 hours ago, seahawk said:

Fully agree. Russia knows that the war with the West will last for decades and it needs at total denazification of the Ukraine.

I think there is and has been a large degree of unreality on this forum about how this war is likely to play out.  The idea that the Russians would go for a ceasefire in exchange for sanctions relief that could be slapped back on the next day to me is just wishful thinking.   

Edited December 6, 2024 by glenn239

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

I think there is and has been a large degree of unreality on this forum about how this war is likely to play out.  The idea that the Russians would go for a ceasefire in exchange for sanctions relief that could be slapped back on the next day to me is just wishful thinking.   

It depends on who are "Russians" here. Deals of this type are done not by population vote, but by quite narrow group of people who are concerned, first and foremost, about own interests. It is true in any country, but in case of Russia the problem is this group of people is totally dependent on West on personal level. Strange to expect them to be over concerned about general population interests.

[sunday]

Problem with trolling is that people takes it at face value.

[urbanoid]

13 hours ago, seahawk said:

Fully agree. Russia knows that the war with the West will last for decades and it needs at total denazification of the Ukraine.

And the Poland. And the Germany (especially the Eastern part). Let's not forget about nazis from the Lithuania, the Latvia and the Estonia. Oh, and the Finland.

[old_goat]

12 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

And the Poland. And the Germany (especially the Eastern part). Let's not forget about nazis from the Lithuania, the Latvia and the Estonia. Oh, and the Finland.

But do they have a national hero like Bandera? Yes, that Bandera, who was the leader of OUN-B. The same OUN-B which wanted to exterminate Polish people... 

[urbanoid]

3 minutes ago, old_goat said:

But do they have a national hero like Bandera? Yes, that Bandera, who was the leader of OUN-B. The same OUN-B which wanted to exterminate Polish people... 

Bandera is our issue with the Ukrainians, we didn't ask Russia or anyone else to 'debanderize' the country nor do we welcome it, it's preferable to have a border with a country with minor (and yes, it is minor) Bandera cult than a restored Russian Empire. We have other ways to pressure them in the future if we have to, which may succeed or not (largely irrelevant anyway) but now is not the time for that. Had the Ukrainians decided to become jihadist radicals overnight we would have still preferred that to more Russia on our border. 

Politics is based on interests, not symbolism. 

[RETAC21]

32 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

And the Poland. And the Germany (especially the Eastern part). Let's not forget about nazis from the Lithuania, the Latvia and the Estonia. Oh, and the Finland.

And the Swedes, don't forget the Swedes were only defeated when they got to Ukraine.

And Norway, those pesky Vikings are also Russians at heart. 

Well, round up and make all Europe Russia, except the UK, the UK is evil and should be left out so the oligarchs patriots can send their cash and kids there...

[old_goat]

10 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Bandera is our issue with the Ukrainians, we didn't ask Russia or anyone else to 'debanderize' the country nor do we welcome it, it's preferable to have a border with a country with minor (and yes, it is minor) Bandera cult than a restored Russian Empire. We have other ways to pressure them in the future if we have to, which may succeed or not (largely irrelevant anyway) but now is not the time for that. Had the Ukrainians decided to become jihadist radicals overnight we would have still preferred that to more Russia on our border. 

Politics is based on interests, not symbolism. 

I honestly dont understand Polish mentality...

Poland seemingly forgave Ukraine for the crimes committed against it, despite the fact that ukrainians wanted (and actually tried) to exterminate your people, and that nazism is still well and alive in ukraine.

But at the same time, Poland was completely unable to forgive Russia for the past, even though it was the SU, not Russia that committed the crimes against it. And also SU never wanted to exterminate poles (Proof - Poland still exists). 

You can think whatever you want, but it was the SU that saved Poland from destruction. Yes, soviet liberation was horrible, no doubt, but stil far, far better than extermination in nazi death camps. 

Edited December 6, 2024 by old_goat

[urbanoid]

Just now, old_goat said:

I honestly dont understand Polish mentality...

Poland seemingly forgave Ukraine for the crimes committed against it, despite the fact that ukrainians wanted to exterminate your people, and that nazism is still well and alive in ukraine.

But at the same time, Poland was completely unable to forgive Russia for the past, even though it was the SU, not Russia that committed the crimes against it. And also SU never wanted to exterminate poles (Proof - Poland still exists). 

You can think whatever you want, but it was the SU that saved Poland from destruction. Yes, soviet liberation was horrible, no doubt, but stil far, far better than extermination in nazi death camps. 

Neither is nazism 'well and alive' (their political clout inside Ukraine is laughable) nor did we forgive really, we're still having our issues with them about the past. And we do and will continue to butt heads with them about those matters, but those are our issues.

At no point has independent Ukraine been a threat to Poland, it's still true and will be even more true in the future, as even if they manage to defend their independence it will be a ruined country of maybe 25 million - and still our buffer from Russia. The only time when the Ukrainians were a threat to Poland was in the situation of a total downfall of Polish state structures and subsequent German occupation. What happened then, as horrible as it was, was the least of our problems, the real problems were the Germans occupying us and the Soviets approaching our country to occupy and vassalize us. In the grand scheme of things it was mostly a sideshow.

Poland is perfectly with the current international order and is going to oppose those who want to demolish it. Germany is not a threat (at least directly, but there's a reason Central and Northern Europe had issues with their collaboration with Russia), Ukraine cannot be, what is left? Revisionist Russia, which actually has potential to harm us and wishes to decide things about us without us and tell us which alliances we're allowed to be in - remember Lavrov's ultimatum? As far as we're concerned the only empire in Europe we can tolerate is the American one, and that's only because the Russians don't want to fuck off back to their shithole instead of asserting themselves and trying to revise the international order that is comfortable for us. 

As I said, politics is about interests, not emotions and sentiments. 

[sunday]

1 hour ago, old_goat said:

But at the same time, Poland was completely unable to forgive Russia for the past, even though it was the SU, not Russia that committed the crimes against it. And also SU never wanted to exterminate poles (Proof - Poland still exists). 

You may say the history of Poland and Russia goes back to before Romanov Russia, at the beginning of the 17th century. Looks like that stretch of Europe is too narrow for those two nations to coexist peacefully.

[urbanoid]

21 minutes ago, sunday said:

You may say the history of Poland and Russia goes back to before Romanov Russia, at the beginning of the 17th century. Looks like that stretch of Europe is too narrow for those two nations to coexist peacefully.

We can coexist just fine as long as there's a buffer, preferably the one on the same side as us - which is just as well, since we have neither the potential nor will to vassalize them (much less annex the Russian way, that would have really fucked up our standards of living). We also realize (finally) they're their own people, neither Russians nor us (or potential us), again unlike Russia. Basically a late 20th/21st century approach vs Russia's 19th century one. If that happens the 'end of history' is going be true at least in this corner of the world, even if not anywhere else. We're just basically defending our very comfy existence. And no, nobody would be invading a nuclear superpower in that case, they'd be left reduced to irrelevance as a European power and that alone would be fully satisfying for us.

Alternative, but less attractive arrangement is our status as a Cold War West Germany, but unlike the first it leaves a lot more of our security in the hands of Western partners. And in that case for now at least we have far more trust in the Americans (and the British, as they have vested interests too, even if their capabilities are not that impressive atm) than Western Europe, especially Germany that has a tendency to gravitate towards and accomodate Russia. I'd love to be proven wrong, but wish in one hand and shit in the other...

And no, the arrangement where Russia simply forgoes its ambitions is not realistic to anyone in Central Europe. If they swallow Ukraine and Belarus it's only the matter of time when the pressure increases further West, especially as they are tempted to deal directly with Western Europe over our heads, those pesky Zwischenland peasants thinking they can be independent. That would be especially true if the US fucks off from Europe, honestly in that case the most preferable route would be to arm ourselves to the teeth even at the expense of living standards, ideally including a nuclear program. 

Edited December 6, 2024 by urbanoid