A Peace Settlement to the Ukraine War

[ink]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Officialy pro-Ukrainians have moved Christmas date (and it is allready over) so hardly any chances....

Ukraine moves Christmas to December 25, distancing itself from Russian tradition | CNN

Shame. Even a unilateral one would be... Nice?

[ink]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

Why would there be?

The magic of Christmas?

[Ssnake]

Nobody's stopping Russia from stopping to fight.

[Roman Alymov]

4 hours ago, Ssnake said:

Nobody's stopping Russia from stopping to fight.

Russian society is still angry for numerous oligarch-sponsored "ceasefires" from Chechen War-1, so ceasefire (not mentioning one-sided ceasefire) is the last thing Putin need in election year.

[ink]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Russian society is still angry for numerous oligarch-sponsored "ceasefires" from Chechen War-1, so ceasefire (not mentioning one-sided ceasefire) is the last thing Putin need in election year.

Does that say anything, do you think, about the power (or lack thereof) of Christianity in Russia?

[Strannik]

Surprisingly very good description of the current situ by frmr. US ambo:

The propaganda that damned Ukraine

Moscow, Kyiv and Washington are caught in a fog of miscalculation.

https://unherd.com/2024/01/the-propaganda-that-damned-ukraine/

If the purpose of war is to establish a better peace, this war is not doing that. Ukraine is being eviscerated on the altar of Russophobia.

This war did not need to take place. And every party to it has lost far more than it has gained.

Edited January 6 by Strannik

[Strannik]

From above article:

“It is estimated that between 20,000 and 50,000 Ukrainians are now amputees. (For context, 41,000 Britons had to have amputations in the First World War, when the procedure was often the only one available to prevent death.”

FTR: British KIA in WWI: 880k 

[sunday]

5 hours ago, ink said:

Does that say anything, do you think, about the power (or lack thereof) of Christianity in Russia?

I think there was no organized Christmas truce ever during the Spanish Civil War.

[Roman Alymov]

5 hours ago, ink said:

Does that say anything, do you think, about the power (or lack thereof) of Christianity in Russia?

I see no link with Christianity here: since Chechen wars (when  all sorts of "ceasefires" were imposed, usually at the moments when rebels were in trouble and needed time to reorganise and replenish losses)  Russian leadership is considered as potential traitors by significant part of Russian grassroot public. Arranging another deal with pro-Ukrainians after years of Minsk agreements, that we now know were not agreement? I do not think any reasonable politician in Russia would dare to propose it. But let's wait and see - quite possibly Putin, in his usual "one step forward, one step back" manner would try it to see what will be public reaction (it is his usual political manner: following every "decicive poilitical step" he is immediately trying to back off from it, and if public or ruling elites are not pushing him into the back - he is de-facto reversing decision).

[glenn239]

39 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

I see no link with Christianity here: since Chechen wars (when  all sorts of "ceasefires" were imposed, usually at the moments when rebels were in trouble and needed time to reorganise and replenish losses)  Russian leadership is considered as potential traitors by significant part of Russian grassroot public. Arranging another deal with pro-Ukrainians after years of Minsk agreements, that we now know were not agreement? I do not think any reasonable politician in Russia would dare to propose it. But let's wait and see - quite possibly Putin, in his usual "one step forward, one step back" manner would try it to see what will be public reaction (it is his usual political manner: following every "decicive poilitical step" he is immediately trying to back off from it, and if public or ruling elites are not pushing him into the back - he is de-facto reversing decision).

Huh, not at all what I was thinking.  Here, I was thinking that if a ceasefire for a few days was arranged Russian units could use that as cover to establish direct contact with their Ukrainian counterparts and try to arrange trust building relationships to the purpose of creating the conditions for post truce mass surrenders.  Hell, in some cases maybe entire Ukrainian units might surrender during the truce.

 

Edited January 6 by glenn239

[Roman Alymov]

6 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Huh, not at all what I was thinking.  Here, I was thinking that if a ceasefire for a few days was arranged Russian units could use that as cover to establish direct contact with their Ukrainian counterparts and try to arrange trust building relationships to the purpose of creating the conditions for post truce mass surrenders.  Hell, in some cases maybe entire Ukrainian units might surrender during the truce.

First of all, it is technically impossible. Unlike in WWI, there are no contact line trenches filled with hundreds and even thousands of men - now "defence line" of both sides is just scattered pits/remains of trenches/ruined basements with 2-3 soldiers hiding in each of them from FPV strikes, as bigger shelter or, God forbid, attempt to build big bunker would attract 152mm or 155mm shell(s). This "positions" are separated by 5-8 km of "dead zone" from more or less safer positions where, at least, car or truck or APC could reach to load/offload, and "dead zome" is usually only crossed on foot. "Unit" (commanders with radios and rest areas) may be 10-20 km away from frontline, in relare safety (at least, FPV drones are not constantly buzzing around there, only occasionally big drones reach them to drop munitions or direct heavy artillery strike). So even if for some reason pro-Ukr battalion would decide to surrender - it will require them to walk ~20 km untill they are relatively safe (since even if pro-Rus drones temporary called away, pro-Ukr drone operators from relative safety would do their best to attack traitors). 

    Only individual soldiers from first line of dugouts could try to surrender, but it will be extremely risky affair.

[bojan]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

From above article:

“It is estimated that between 20,000 and 50,000 Ukrainians are now amputees. (For context, 41,000 Britons had to have amputations in the First World War, when the procedure was often the only one available to prevent death.”

FTR: British KIA in WWI: 880k 

You can not really compare WW1 and today medical care and draw any conclusions on amount of amputations.

[BansheeOne]

Not to speak of the effects of body armor which will leave people alive with limb amputations but little or no damage to vital organs, when they would have been dead right there in WW I/II.

31 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

First of all, it is technically impossible. Unlike in WWI, there are no contact line trenches filled with hundreds and even thousands of men - now "defence line" of both sides is just scattered pits/remains of trenches/ruined basements with 2-3 soldiers hiding in each of them from FPV strikes, as bigger shelter or, God forbid, attempt to build big bunker would attract 152mm or 155mm shell(s). This "positions" are separated by 5-8 km of "dead zone" from more or less safer positions where, at least, car or truck or APC could reach to load/offload, and "dead zome" is usually only crossed on foot. "Unit" (commanders with radios and rest areas) may be 10-20 km away from frontline, in relare safety (at least, FPV drones are not constantly buzzing around there, only occasionally big drones reach them to drop munitions or direct heavy artillery strike).

The refutation of the usual fantasies aside - while we've long talked about the impact of massed drone use and other peculiarities of this war, I think that's a very succinct description of realities on the ground.

[Josh]

Regarding amputees, I suspect there’s much more mine related casualties, especially on the Ukrainian side after the summer offensive, than most wars.

[Roman Alymov]

45 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

Not to speak of the effects of body armor which will leave people alive with limb amputations but little or no damage to vital organs, when they would have been dead right there in WW I/II.

The problem is, surviving initial damage is now not enough: unlike WWI and WWII (when dragging WIA into the trench or behind the first hill was enough to more or less guarantee his timely evacuation further back into rear nhospitals) now contact line is separated from the places evacuation vehicle could more or less safely* reach by many miles of scorched earth with attack and artillery direction drones above it, to be crossed on foot. Now not only pro-Russians, but also pro-Ukrainians are experimenting with evacuation handcarts (or handcarts with chineese powerwheels), as carrying adult man on stretchers 5-7 miles on regilar  two-men stretchers is next to impossible, and 6-8 men evacuatrion team will be immediately destroyed.

    So it is not uncommon to wounded with initially relatively small wounds to die or loose lims because of days of waiting, or be killed in process of evacuation.

* safety means reasonable survival rate, not suicidal mission.

[ink]

Ultimately, I thought there might be a (very slim) chance of a Russian ceasefire of sorts (even if just on paper) for the look of it and to sort of reclaim the 6th as the proper date for Christmas. In any case, it was more just a vague hope, rather that a realistic expectation.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, BansheeOne said:

Not to speak of the effects of body armor which will leave people alive with limb amputations but little or no damage to vital organs, when they would have been dead right there in WW I/II.

The refutation of the usual fantasies aside - while we've long talked about the impact of massed drone use and other peculiarities of this war, I think that's a very succinct description of realities on the ground.

There is also the effect of mines or toepoppers, which were pretty much non existent due to the bombardment in WW1. Not to mention drone delivered bomblets, which must injure far more than it killls.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Ukraine is likely to be forced to shift to a new stage in the war soon, and divert resources to restoring the economy - due to western reluctance to aid it.

The US has sent massive amounts of aid, and Europe also sent a few things. But with seemingly no industrial or political ability to keep up, this means we're likely seeing the last few drops of western aid. Russia on the other hand has started receiving significant aid of its own.

This is not a good sign for the west. While Russia has failed to achieve any goal except for the occupation of Crimea a decade ago, and the destruction of multiple Ukrainian cities, it has effectively exhausted western war material as well as its own.

The US government provided materiel from its own stocks, but for some reason refuses to replenish it. Meanwhile, it has adopted a policy welcoming significant amounts of unchecked immigrants, and allowed anti-humanist and anti-democratic ideologies to take over its young population. 

Adversaries are already taking advantage. The Houthis have effectively shut down a major global trade route on their own. Iran became a nuclear threshold state, and while China may not necessarily be able to take Taiwan so easily, the US is definitely in a state of decline.

I'm afraid if the US and Europe don't take serious things seriously (e.g. existence), all their adversaries will start 2025 much better than they have 2024.

[Josh]

11 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Ukraine is likely to be forced to shift to a new stage in the war soon, and divert resources to restoring the economy - due to western reluctance to aid it.

The US has sent massive amounts of aid, and Europe also sent a few things. But with seemingly no industrial or political ability to keep up, this means we're likely seeing the last few drops of western aid. Russia on the other hand has started receiving significant aid of its own.

This is not a good sign for the west. While Russia has failed to achieve any goal except for the occupation of Crimea a decade ago, and the destruction of multiple Ukrainian cities, it has effectively exhausted western war material as well as its own.

The US government provided materiel from its own stocks, but for some reason refuses to replenish it. Meanwhile, it has adopted a policy welcoming significant amounts of unchecked immigrants, and allowed anti-humanist and anti-democratic ideologies to take over its young population. 

Adversaries are already taking advantage. The Houthis have effectively shut down a major global trade route on their own. Iran became a nuclear threshold state, and while China may not necessarily be able to take Taiwan so easily, the US is definitely in a state of decline.

I'm afraid if the US and Europe don't take serious things seriously (e.g. existence), all their adversaries will start 2025 much better than they have 2024.

The US has doubled artillery production already. Within a year that is to double twice more. There’s no shortage of older armored vehicles to send either. The US limitation is political not physical.

[MiGG0]

21 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Ukraine is likely to be forced to shift to a new stage in the war soon, and divert resources to restoring the economy - due to western reluctance to aid it.

The US has sent massive amounts of aid, and Europe also sent a few things. But with seemingly no industrial or political ability to keep up, this means we're likely seeing the last few drops of western aid. Russia on the other hand has started receiving significant aid of its own.

This is not a good sign for the west. While Russia has failed to achieve any goal except for the occupation of Crimea a decade ago, and the destruction of multiple Ukrainian cities, it has effectively exhausted western war material as well as its own.

The US government provided materiel from its own stocks, but for some reason refuses to replenish it. Meanwhile, it has adopted a policy welcoming significant amounts of unchecked immigrants, and allowed anti-humanist and anti-democratic ideologies to take over its young population. 

Adversaries are already taking advantage. The Houthis have effectively shut down a major global trade route on their own. Iran became a nuclear threshold state, and while China may not necessarily be able to take Taiwan so easily, the US is definitely in a state of decline.

I'm afraid if the US and Europe don't take serious things seriously (e.g. existence), all their adversaries will start 2025 much better than they have 2024.

Pretty much agree all of this. In Europe many know this, but what is lacking is unified will. No one is taking ”leadereihin” and everyone except that ”someone” else do. In EU level single country can block decisions, etc

[Mike1158]

Essentially the Russian home front is a weakness, at least imho.  Attacking that more rrgularly will weaken the desire for the Russian citizen to hang around for the long haul.  Weakening Putin's position of power will do more than the casualties suffered at the coal face.

[Mighty_Zuk]

40 minutes ago, Josh said:

The US has doubled artillery production already. Within a year that is to double twice more. There’s no shortage of older armored vehicles to send either. The US limitation is political not physical.

Of course it's political. But political limitations = physical ones, eventually.

If the US is unable to create sufficient war materiel for an ally in Europe, nor create the industrial capacity for it 2 years later, then it sure as hell cannot fight a high intensity warfare across an ocean. Sorry but it just can't. What will it do when it runs out of Tomahawks on the 2nd week of fighting China? Will a production bill again be delayed by congressmen wanting to build another wall?

[ink]

Instead of a ceasefire for Christmas:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-attack-kills-11-pokrovsk-ukraines-east-donetsk-regional-governor-2024-01-06/

"A Russian missile strike killed 11 people and injured 10 on Saturday in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, the governor of the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donetsk region said.

Five of the dead were children."

[ink]

Still no real hopes of peace but there's this at least:

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240308-turkey-ready-host-ukraine-russia-peace-summit-erdogan-zelensky

Not much really so when I say "at least", I really mean it.

[ink]

I don't know how realistic this is (or how much it is led by the intended audience), but, for completeness sake:

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240924-zelenskiy-ukraine-closer-to-end-of-war-russia-putin-afraid