A Peace Settlement to the Ukraine War

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Timo said:

What does winning mean though? The unconditional surrender of the Collective West? That's what Russia is fighting against after all.

Total victory for Russia would entail the complete collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces and a coup against the Zelensky regime as it disintegrated.  Western influence would be ejected from Ukraine altogether, the Ukrainian armed forces entering into a state of permanent disarmament, its government now a political satrap of the Sino-Russian alliance, it's economy orientated eastwards into the Chinese sphere as Russia's has done before it.

 

[Josh]

31 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Total victory for Russia would entail the complete collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces and a coup against the Zelensky regime as it disintegrated.  Western influence would be ejected from Ukraine altogether, the Ukrainian armed forces entering into a state of permanent disarmament, its government now a political satrap of the Sino-Russian alliance, it's economy orientated eastwards into the Chinese sphere as Russia's has done before it.

 

I think they will have to lower the bar then.

[seahawk]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Total victory for Russia would entail the complete collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces and a coup against the Zelensky regime as it disintegrated.  Western influence would be ejected from Ukraine altogether, the Ukrainian armed forces entering into a state of permanent disarmament, its government now a political satrap of the Sino-Russian alliance, it's economy orientated eastwards into the Chinese sphere as Russia's has done before it.

 

No, Russian victory will see the re-unification of the 2 Russian countries. What you describe is the likely outcome. As Russian and Chinese success is a given.

[Harold Jones]

This seems like it's apropos  https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-and-does-war-ukraine-end-need-grand-strategy

 

[DB]

This brings us all the way back to the "options" I think I covered in the original Kiev thread, nearly a year ago. Without going back to check, I think they look like this, and they all suck shit through a sack.

1 - Russia total victory. Ukraine ceases to exist and Ukrainians are either persecuted or driven out of their own country.

2 - Russia retains the majority of its gains. Ukrainians are persecuted in occupied territories and "ethnic cleansing" takes place. Any pro Russians in Rump Ukraine get forced out through similar means.

3. Status quo ante is restored (Crimea and partial occupation of DNR/LNR). Any pro-Russians in the rump Ukraine are persecuted and subject to ethnic cleansing.

4. Russia is driven out of some or all of pre-2022 positions, see point 3 but many more people affected, probably lots of bloodshed and "genocidal" activities.

5. 4 but with massive concessions on local autonomy for DNR/LNR up to and including Catalonia level autonomy, with much ethnicity based terrorist activity as that level of autonomy fails to impress people who have been shot at for about 10 years. this ends up being the same as 4, but might have stood a chance if applied pre-2014.

[BansheeOne]

That's probably the main issue: so much additional blood has been spillt and hardship suffered over the last year that people on either side won't be content with partial results unless they've reached a level of exhaustion where anything looks better than continuing to fight.

Other than full satisfaction of territorial ambitions at that point, I can see three models of decreasing mutual consent in addition to the one of the Spanish autonomous regions: Northern Ireland, Kosovo, and Korea. The first would require open borders with Russia and a power-sharing agreement with the pro-Russian party while the regions remain under overall Ukrainian governance. Frankly, I don't think that will be a somewhat stable solution for at least as long as the Troubles persisted in Northern Ireland though.

Kosovo would probably be a more stable model by virtue of pissing off everyone equally; essentially a step back to self-declared independence of the breakaway regions, recognized by some but not by others, becoming ethnically largely cleansed UN protectorates forbidden to join the neighbor country they'd really want to. Which poses the question of who would be both acceptable and stupid enough to provide troops to police and credibly secure them against future intervention by either side.

Korea would certainly be the easiest to implement: establish a DMZ fortified six ways to Sunday on either side, probably rather wider than the original; the mere exclusion zones for heavy weapons under the Minsk Accords didn't turn out to be all that effective even when the agreements were nominally observed. Though with the city of Donetsk right on the frontline, there might be some practical problems, too.

[Josh]

I think the final arrangement will involve and armed border that see continued conflict, regardless of where exactly the line of control ends up falling. And yes, it will probably take one or both sides fighting to exhaustion of men or material. I don't think either side can completely collapse because I don't think the opponent is in a position to advance sufficiently to truly make the other side fold to that degree.

[glenn239]

I think the Russians can make the Ukrainians collapse, but the Ukrainians cannot return the favor - only the Russians can make the Russians collapse.

[BansheeOne]

Cross-posting from the Kiev thread:

Quote

Behind Ukraine peace proposal, China foresees end to war in summer

Simulation by military academy prompts Beijing to push cease-fire plan

TSUKASA HADANO, Nikkei staff writer

March 9, 2023 03:43 JST

BEIJING -- After avoiding getting too deeply involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine over the past year, China suddenly offered a peace proposal last month. Chinese military experts’ prediction that the war will come to an end this summer is likely behind this about-face.

[...]

The plan itself is prosaic, but it gave the impression that China was suddenly playing an active role.

Beijing has neither condemned Russia's invasion, nor has it joined in the economic sanctions imposed on Moscow. Although China had called for a cease-fire in the past, its leadership has been unwilling to take any concrete actions.

The reason for China's sudden change can be traced back to a report issued two months earlier by a top think tank in Beijing.

The Academy of Military Sciences reports directly to the People's Liberation Army. Although it cannot be found on a map, the institution is located in Beijing's Haidian district, which itself is home to the ruins of Yuanmingyuan, a palace destroyed by Western armies in the 19th century.

The AMS regularly issues recommendations and reports to the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, the highest decision-making body for China's armed forces. A cabinet-level official heads the academy.

In December, the AMS completed a simulation on the Ukraine conflict, resulting in an astonishing finding, according to sources close to the Chinese government. The war will draw to a close around summer 2023, the simulation indicated, with Russia having the upper hand.

Both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too exhausted to sustain the war past the summer, the report said.

It is possible that the results were skewed in favor of Russia to please China's Moscow-leaning leadership. But coincidentally, the $45 billion aid package passed last December in the U.S. is set to expire this summer too.

[...]

After hearing the AMS' prediction, Beijing crafted a peace proposal in time for the one-year anniversary of the war. It aims to achieve three goals, including the restoration of relations with Europe.

The Chinese surveillance balloon incident has caused deeper rifts in Sino-U.S. relations. Japan has aligned with the U.S. over the Taiwan issue.

But Beijing still sees a chance in Europe. Although European countries are expanding weapon aid to Ukraine, some in Germany, France and elsewhere are calling for an early cease-fire.

[...]

The final desired aim is for China to play the leading role in bringing about a cease-fire. Chinese President Xi Jinping is considering accepting the invitation to come to Moscow by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"The visit to Russia can't come too soon or too late," said a source well-versed in Chinese diplomacy.

The best scenario for Xi would be for Russia and Ukraine to start negotiations after the Chinese leader presents the peace plan to Putin. That would paint China as a true interlocutor for a cease-fire and put it in an advantageous position to pull Global South countries to its side, especially those that keep both U.S. and China at arm's length.

Many analysts believe the war will last for the long haul because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains intent on winning back lost territory. Western countries have been increasingly critical of China for allegedly providing weapons to Russia.

If China fails at becoming a peacemaker, the ramifications would undermine Xi's authority and prestige. It remains to be seen if the current leadership filled with Xi loyalists will be capable of a feat that requires complex negotiating skills and tenacious fortitude.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Behind-Ukraine-peace-proposal-China-foresees-end-to-war-in-summer

[BansheeOne]

On 3/7/2023 at 12:55 PM, BansheeOne said:

Kosovo would probably be a more stable model by virtue of pissing off everyone equally; essentially a step back to self-declared independence of the breakaway regions, recognized by some but not by others, becoming ethnically largely cleansed UN protectorates forbidden to join the neighbor country they'd really want to. Which poses the question of who would be both acceptable and stupid enough to provide troops to police and credibly secure them against future intervention by either side.

Now old Viktor can be safely assumed to spout nonsense whenever his lips are moving, and even if "European leaders are close to deciding on peace troops for Ukraine" actually turns out to be "close to discussing peace troops" in the actual article, it's probably still his usual stick of "the EU is driving Hungary into disaster, good thing you have a vigilant leader like me protecting you" stick. That said, I'm sure - actually hoping - someone somewhere does indeed think about possible peace troops as part of a post-war settlement; obviously without the "West is preparing to send your sons and daughters to die fighting for Ukraine" spin it's being reported as by interested media.

Depending upon the exact construction, I don't however see troops from any EU country doing much peacekeeping in a post-war Ukraine due to a lack of neutrality which would qualify them for the role. Even Hungary, which has tried its best to keep on Putin's good side, dissatisfied the latter enough to earn an individual nomination for Russia's "unfriendly countries" list recently. As did Switzerland earlier, somewhat surprisingly given their pains to uphold their neutrality in the conflict. Notably absent however is NATO member Turkey, though it remains to be seen whether that will change if a possible successor to Erdogan pursues a different policy than the current playing-both-sides.

Conversely, I'm not sure the West would like to see peacekeepers from countries considered unproblematic by Russia. Particularly China - though I'm not sure Russia would want lots of Chinese troops upholding peace agreements in Ukraine, either. Other potential candidates like Serbia would probably gratefully decline the honor. India might be someone both sides could agree on. Otherwise there might be something like a buffer zone itself divided between a Russian and Ukrainian side, monitored by troops from countries somewhat aligned with the interests of either party, but no desire to clash with each other.

Quote

Europe Close to Deciding on Peacekeeping Troops in Ukraine—Viktor Orbán

By Isabel van Brugen On 3/31/23 at 5:14 AM EDT

European leaders are close to discussing whether the European Union can send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was quoted as saying on Friday.

Orbán, a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was speaking to local radio station Kossuth Rádió on Friday morning about Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, media outlet Mandiner reported.

Earlier in March, the Russian government mentioned Hungary as being in a group of foreign states that it said had committed "unfriendly actions against Russia, its companies and citizens," despite a longstanding amicable relationship between Orbán and Putin.

"The war is getting more and more brutal and bloody," Orbán was quoted by Mandiner as saying on Friday.

The Hungarian prime minister also reportedly said that European leaders are close to considering whether the EU can send peacekeeping troops into Ukraine.

"The war is worrying and dangerous for the Hungarian people. Our security is in danger," said Orbán.

Since "the West is providing Ukrainians with more and more modern equipment, I am convinced that the threat of world war is not a literary exaggeration," he said.

[...]

https://www.newsweek.com/europe-eu-peacekeeping-troops-ukraine-viktor-orban-1791732

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Pope Says Vatican Involved in Secret Ukraine Peace Mission

By Reuters

April 30, 2023

By Philip Pullella

ABOARD THE PAPAL PLANE (Reuters) -The Vatican is involved in a peace mission to try to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Pope Francis said on Sunday, adding that it was also ready to help repatriate Ukrainian children taken to Russia or Russian-occupied land.

"There is a mission in course now but it is not yet public. When it is public, I will reveal it," the pope told reporters during a flight home after a three-day visit to Hungary.

"I think that peace is always made by opening channels. You can never achieve peace through closure. ... This is not easy."

The pope added that he had spoken about the situation in Ukraine with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and with Metropolitan (bishop) Hilarion, a representative of the Russian Orthodox Church in Budapest.

"In these meetings we did not just talk about Little Red Riding Hood. We spoke of all these things. Everyone is interested in the road to peace," he said.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Francis has pleaded for peace practically on a weekly basis, and has repeatedly expressed a wish to act as a broker between Kyiv and Moscow. His offer has so far failed to produce any breakthrough.

Pope Francis, 86, has said previously that he wants to visit Kyiv but also Moscow on a peace mission.

Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met the pope at the Vatican on Thursday and said he had discussed a "peace formula" put forward by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Shmyhal also asked for help in the repatriation of children. Kyiv estimates nearly 19,500 children have been taken to Russia or Russian-occupied Crimea since Moscow invaded in February last year, in what it condemns as illegal deportations.

"The Holy See is willing to do this (help repatriate the children) because it is the right thing," Francis said on the plane. "All human gestures help but gestures of cruelty don't help. We have to do all that is humanly possible".

[...]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-04-30/pope-says-vatican-involved-in-ukraine-peace-mission

[Josh]

“The Pope! How many divisions has he got?”

[Roman Alymov]

On 3/11/2023 at 3:08 PM, BansheeOne said:

Cross-posting from the Kiev thread:

Another cross-posting

 

[Mike1158]

On 5/1/2023 at 5:41 PM, Josh said:

“The Pope! How many divisions has he got?”

Apart from the Swiss Guard, not a one but with organised faith declining across the globe, he is running another campaign to ap[peal to the people and recruit idiots, I mean followers or something.

 

How these people who harboured NAZIS, paedophiles and stealers of children can have any optimism that folk will blindly follow their rhetoric is beyond me at least.  Blind faith can be the only answer.  Pity for them we're not all blind then......

[BansheeOne]

Well, why not?

Quote

African leaders to present peace plan to Putin and Zelenskyy

32 minutes ago

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts have agreed to consider an African peace plan to end the war in Ukraine.

A delegation of African heads of state will travel to Russia and Ukraine "as soon as possible" to help end Russia's war in Ukraine, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said Tuesday.

He had held separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who agreed to host the African leaders in Moscow and Kyiv to discuss a potential peace plan for the conflict.

"My discussions with the two leaders demonstrated that they are both ready to receive the African leaders and to have discussion on how this conflict can be brought to an end," Ramaphosa told a joint press briefing with visiting Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

"Whether that will succeed or not is going to depend on the discussions that will be held," he said.

Senegal, Uganda, Egypt, the Republic of the Congo, Zambia, and South Africa will all be part of the mediation effort.

Moscow and Kyiv did not immediately comment on Ramaphosa's statement.

Pressure on South Africa to pick sides

The effort by African leaders is the latest in a string of foreign offers of mediation and peace talks. It comes after UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says peace talks in the Ukraine conflict are not possible at the moment.

But Ramaphosa said Guterres and the African Union (AU) have been briefed on and welcomed the initiative. He added the US and Britain had also expressed "cautious" support for the plan.

The South African leader gave no timeline for the visits but said the conflict had been "devastating," and African countries suffered "a great deal" from it.

The announcement came a day after Ramaphosa insisted South Africa was impartial, after the US last week claimed weapons were loaded onto Russian ship at a naval base in Cape Town late last year.

Ramaphosa said South Africa would not be drawn "into a contest between global powers" despite having faced "extraordinary pressure" to do so.

South Africa has abstained from voting on UN resolutions on the war.

https://www.dw.com/en/african-leaders-to-present-peace-plan-to-putin-and-zelenskyy/a-65648099

[Stuart Galbraith]

From what I've read, the Russians suggested  it to them. Which if true, suggests the Kremlin wants to turn the war off before it all goes Pete Tong.

[BansheeOne]

If that's the case, they're probably looking for a base that doesn't include the annoying part about national sovereignty from the Chinese.

[Strannik]

 

 

[KV7]

Seymour Hersch claims that some of the Europeans are pushing for some sort of settlement:

https://thewallwillfall.org/2023/05/17/seymour-hersh-the-ukraine-refugee-question/

But something else is cooking, as some in the American intelligence community know and have reported in secret, at the instigation of government officials at various levels in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechoslovakia, and Latvia. These countries are all allies of Ukraine and declared enemies of Vladimir Putin.

This group is led by Poland, whose leadership no longer fears the Russian army because its performance in Ukraine has left the glow of its success at Stalingrad during the Second World War in tatters. It has been quietly urging Zelensky to find a way to end the war—even by resigning himself, if necessary—and to allow the process of rebuilding his nation to get under way. Zelensky is not budging, according to intercepts and other data known inside the Central Intelligence Agency, but he is beginning to lose the private support of his neighbors.

One of the driving forces for the quiet European talks with Zelensky has been the more than five million Ukrainians fleeing from the war who have crossed the country’s borders and have registered with its neighbors under an EU agreement for temporary protection that includes residency rights, access to the labor market, housing, social welfare assistance, and medical care. 

[Josh]

22 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

If that's the case, they're probably looking for a base that doesn't include the annoying part about national sovereignty from the Chinese.

I think Ukraine and Russia are going through the kabuki theater of desiring peace and the Africans want to seem relevant. Russia isn't going to accept a peace that doesn't include every inch of land Russia has won post 2022-02-04 and Ukraine has the same sentiment. Neither side is remotely at the point where they would be forced to accept a deal.

[Stuart Galbraith]

27 minutes ago, KV7 said:

Seymour Hersch claims that some of the Europeans are pushing for some sort of settlement:

https://thewallwillfall.org/2023/05/17/seymour-hersh-the-ukraine-refugee-question/

But something else is cooking, as some in the American intelligence community know and have reported in secret, at the instigation of government officials at various levels in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechoslovakia, and Latvia. These countries are all allies of Ukraine and declared enemies of Vladimir Putin.

This group is led by Poland, whose leadership no longer fears the Russian army because its performance in Ukraine has left the glow of its success at Stalingrad during the Second World War in tatters. It has been quietly urging Zelensky to find a way to end the war—even by resigning himself, if necessary—and to allow the process of rebuilding his nation to get under way. Zelensky is not budging, according to intercepts and other data known inside the Central Intelligence Agency, but he is beginning to lose the private support of his neighbors.

One of the driving forces for the quiet European talks with Zelensky has been the more than five million Ukrainians fleeing from the war who have crossed the country’s borders and have registered with its neighbors under an EU agreement for temporary protection that includes residency rights, access to the labor market, housing, social welfare assistance, and medical care. 

The same Seymour Hersh whom seems unable to recognise there is no Czechoslovakia anymore. The rest I think we can swiftly consign to the same bin as his Nordstream article.

[Pavel Novak]

35 minutes ago, KV7 said:

Seymour Hersch claims that some of the Europeans are pushing for some sort of settlement:

https://thewallwillfall.org/2023/05/17/seymour-hersh-the-ukraine-refugee-question/

But something else is cooking, as some in the American intelligence community know and have reported in secret, at the instigation of government officials at various levels in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechoslovakia, and Latvia. These countries are all allies of Ukraine and declared enemies of Vladimir Putin.

This group is led by Poland, whose leadership no longer fears the Russian army because its performance in Ukraine has left the glow of its success at Stalingrad during the Second World War in tatters. It has been quietly urging Zelensky to find a way to end the war—even by resigning himself, if necessary—and to allow the process of rebuilding his nation to get under way. Zelensky is not budging, according to intercepts and other data known inside the Central Intelligence Agency, but he is beginning to lose the private support of his neighbors.

One of the driving forces for the quiet European talks with Zelensky has been the more than five million Ukrainians fleeing from the war who have crossed the country’s borders and have registered with its neighbors under an EU agreement for temporary protection that includes residency rights, access to the labor market, housing, social welfare assistance, and medical care. 

... Czechoslovakia ☺️

[Stuart Galbraith]

It's all the rage on Twitter at the moment.

 

[BansheeOne]

Hey, at least he doesn't claim the Czechoslovakian prime minister has worked for the CIA since Vietnam.

[Stuart Galbraith]