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We've never had a general Israel threat, possibly because everyone instinctively feared it would turn into a shitshow in short order. I hope we can avoid that, as I think current developments invite some observation. Israel has always had a lively democracy, as evidenced by quasi-annual elections in recent years ... but you know there's a new quality to domestic conflict when even rigidly pro-Israeli media like the German conservative Springer Press strike a worried tone about government plans, and who all is opposing it; including within the government camp.

Even in some of the previous Netanyahu administrations, I recall voices attacking the independence of the national supreme court with the argument that the judiciary should serve the "will of the people", as expressed in the elected government - particularly dicey in a country without a consolidated written constitution. Obviously this flies in the face of the concept of checks and balances, and is something we've heard from communist dictatorships; and more recently from Eastern European populist governments in Poland and Hungary, and also Turkey, which have all undermined that independence to some degree. 

Those examples are probably why there is so immediate broad public protest against the design that the Knesset can overturn supreme court rulings with a mere plurality. Obviously it doesn't help optics when the prime minister is currently up on corruption charges himself, and laws where changed right at the start of the term so several of his allies in the ruling coalition could become ministers despite being convicted felons, too. That's before we come to coalition members condoning revenge attacks of West Bank settlers on a Palestinian town for the murder of two of theirs while driving through, to which others reply "sure the place should be wiped out, but by the state rather than private citizens" ...

At this point people are warning of plain economic damage to the country; not just as political repercussions, but due to investors withdrawing capital over fears of legal insecurity with the independence of the judiciary under attack - an effect we've seen in other places. Such consequences might be purposefully exaggerated, but if the new government absolutely needs to wreck something, I'd hope it will end up being themselves rather than the entire political system or the national economy.

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Huh.  If only there were some poster on this site who had already identified the possibility of this type of Israeli drift five years ago and advocated for a switch in NATO's focus from Eastern European expansion to quelling Palestine.  :^)

 

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Very fragmented Israeli political scene basically has overcome sort of sensible consensus during previous decades.

Some groups and parties have way more influence now than during previous years, despite being minor groups. 

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Its curious that it seems to be a similar set of problems as in America, lack of ability to work together, fringe elements pushing their way to the centre ground, caused by completely different subset of causes, namely far too many political parties and causes, instead of the bipolarity of American politics.

Maybe there is a happy sweet spot between too much and too little representation....

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1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Huh.  If only there were some poster on this site who had already identified the possibility of this type of Israeli drift five years ago and advocated for a switch in NATO's focus from Eastern European expansion to quelling Palestine.  :^)

 

My Grandad was doing that in 1947. If they couldnt do it 70 years ago with the equipment park they had  been defeating Nazi Germany with, Im damned if I can see them doing it now. or even wanting any part of the problem.

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

My Grandad was doing that in 1947. If they couldnt do it 70 years ago with the equipment park they had  been defeating Nazi Germany with, Im damned if I can see them doing it now. or even wanting any part of the problem.

Odd that you happily have the Americans running around the world fighting practically everyone in various discussions, but when it comes to battling mighty Hamas, you cannot dare for victory.  

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Not a particularly Israeli issue, it has become a global trend to dissolve separation of powers for the "greater good" as of late.

Underlying issues will crop up uninvited when this short-sighted initiative goes through, and Israel has a Palestinian problem that they don't want to see.

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7 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Odd that you happily have the Americans running around the world fighting practically everyone in various discussions, but when it comes to battling mighty Hamas, you cannot dare for victory.  

Who else you got, Tony Stark?

 

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Israel: Planned judicial overhaul divides the country

Tania Kraemer

36 minutes ago

Israelis have been protesting a judicial overhaul planned by the country's ultranationalist government. The gap between supporters and opponents of the controversial reform is widening.

In Israel, thousands of people are expected to protest today against government plans to overhaul the judiciary. It's the latest in a string of demonstrations held in the past two months against the judicial reform, with Thursday serving as the next "day of resistance to dictatorship”.

Beyond weekly Saturday night demonstrations in Tel Aviv, almost daily smaller protests in different cities have been fused with frequent "days of disruption," where protesters block main junctions and roads during rush hour.

In Jerusalem last week, army veterans and reservists staged a protest in front of the prime minister's office, where they chanted and waved Israeli flags. 

The fact that Benjamin Netanyahu's office is located between Israel's Parliament, the Knesset, and the nation's Supreme Court amplified the symbolism of the veterans' protest.

"It's a very special group here tonight; we are reservists who served in past wars, from the Six Day War [1967], to Yom Kippur, to Lebanon," Rami Matan, a retired army officer told DW. "We defended, fought and were willing to die for this country. Now we are here to save her [Israel] — not like in the past from a foreign enemy, but today we defend it from becoming a dictatorship."

Matan has returned to the streets after protesting in 2020-2021 against Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, the then (and now) prime minister, who was facing corruption charges in court at the time — as he still does today.

But chants of "Bibi ha beita" ("Bibi go home") from that time have now been replaced with "democratya" ("democracy"). For many here, this is something bigger than a protest against one politician.

[...]

From judges to high-tech workers, students, parents and anti-occupation activists, the protests have mobilized diverse segments of society. In an unprecedented move, reservist fighter pilots from the country's elite squadron threatened to refrain from reporting to reserve training in protest of the controversial overhaul. Other reservists have also penned open letters warning that they might not show up for duty.

For many Jewish Israelis, the army symbolizes a stronghold of security that ought to stay out of politics. These actions have further added to the polarization between opponents and supporters of the government's proposal.

Drastic changes to Israel's legal system

Simcha Rothman, a member of the Knesset for the far-right Religious Zionist Party, heads the legislature's Constitution, Law and Justice Committee and is considered to be one of the architects of the government's reform. Emerging from a meeting of the committee that will oversee the proposed legislation before it gets its first reading in the Knesset, he told DW: "On November 1, a lot of people went out of their homes and voted exactly on this issue. So, we need to listen to them. There are a lot of people, but it is a small minority in Israel that says this reform is not good for them." 

Rothman was referring to the general election in November that led to the formation of the far-right and ultra-Orthodox coalition, which holds 64 of the Knesset's 120 seats.

For many years, national religious right-wingers have attacked the Supreme Court for being too "leftist" and too powerful.

Rothman insists that what he describes as "reforms" are necessary. "We basically have a court that is unbalanced and unchecked unlike the other entities in the government, which are checked and balanced," he said. "So we need to introduce checks and balances to the Israeli [court] system."

But critics disagree. They say the overhaul will hand the government unchecked power, override Israel's judicial independence and leave minorities unprotected.

Efrat Rayten, a member of Knesset for the Labor party, sits on the opposition bench. "We don't have a constitution in the State of Israel, and we also do not have a Declaration of Human Rights, we do not have two houses in the parliament, we do not even have term limits for prime ministers," Rayten said in an interview with DW. "The laws that are brought [to the Knesset] cancel the ability of the Supreme Court to oversee the Knesset and government actions."

Dialogue or constitutional crisis?

In recent days, reports in Israeli media emerged saying that President Isaac Herzog was working with a group of legal academics on a compromise proposal for judicial reform.

Herzog, who as president holds a largely ceremonial role, made a rare address to the nation a few weeks ago. He pleaded for dialogue and warned that the country risked slipping into constitutional collapse. Shortly afterwards, Prime Minister Netanyahu's ruling coalition said it was open to a brokered compromise. But it rejected the opposition's demand that in order to start such a dialogue, it must stop its blitz to pass the legislation.

It is this hasty process by the ruling coalition that angers protesters. "I would say that a bunch of extremists just took over the Parliament, and they just want to pass their own laws, they don't care about us, they don't care about the public," says Noam, a 24-year-old tech worker at a rally near Netanyahu's residence in Jerusalem.

[...]

Divisions have continued to grow over recent weeks. During a protest in Tel Aviv last week, the police, headed by far-right Minister for National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, fired tear gas and stun grenades toward protesters who were blocking a main junction.

Echoing Netanyahu, Ben Gvir called the protesters "anarchists" and promised a tough response.

As politics continue, the protests show no signs of waning. On Thursday, among other things, there is talk of an attempt to delay Prime Minister Netanyahu's planned trip to Rome to meet Italian counterpart Georgia Meloni by blocking the route to the airport.

https://www.dw.com/en/israel-planned-judicial-overhaul-divides-the-country/a-64917682

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There's an interesting bit on IAF organization in this one, though I'm not sure whether the guy overstates the issue for political purposes.

Quote

Israel's military reservists criticize judicial reform

Tania Krämer

1 hour ago

Military reservists are threatening to stop reporting for duty if Israel goes ahead with its judicial reforms. The unprecedented military protests underscore the growing opposition to the legal overhaul.

Former air force pilot Guy Poran gulps down a coffee and quickly eats a homemade sandwich before his next interview. It's a rare break for Poran, who represents a group of about 1,300 Israeli ex-pilots and reservists known as Forum 555. He's been in high demand since several groups of defense force reservists have raised their voices in protest against Israel's judicial reforms.

"It's been busy days," he says. Poran has spent the past few weeks giving interviews explaining why the reservists he represents are critical of the legal overhaul proposed by the far-right coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

None of the reservists have yet to refuse an order, Poran says. But the air force volunteers have made it clear that if the coalition passes the legislation, the reservists wouldn't be able to continue serving in the defense force.

"We're volunteers. If this country isn't democratic anymore ... we're just not going to volunteer anymore," he tells DW.

The proposed legislation curtails the power of the judiciary and gives parliament the power to appoint judges. In the past, the Supreme Court has on rare occasions canceled laws enacted by parliament. Controversially, a clause in the new law would enable the Knesset to override such a decision by the Supreme Court with a simple majority. 

[...]

Israeli men and women are usually conscripted into the military for two to three years. Afterward, some continue to enlist for reserve duties well into their forties and later become volunteers. In some units, reservists take on essential roles because of their experience and skills. 

All the air force squadrons are dependent on reserve pilots, says Guy Poran, and if a large number of those reserve pilots fall away after this legislation passes, "there is simply no air force."

That's because the air force only has a small group of permanent pilots, made up of the "young guys" who come out of flight school, he explains.

"All the pilots with a lot of experience of years are on reserve. They come every week for one day of training for years ... and the small amount of pilots that are permanently serving can't do the missions the air force is required to do."

Refusal to serve in the military is typically a taboo topic and further underlines how the government's judicial reforms have deeply divided the country.

[...]

'Softened' version

Netanyahu's government has made a slight concession, in that it has announced a softened timeline for the legislation. Under the new proposal, voting on most of the proposed changes would be postponed until the parliament's summer session, which begins on April 30.

However, it would still seek to pass legislation shaking up how judges are appointed during the current Knesset session, which ends on April 2.

Opponents rejected this new proposal dubbing it as the "salami method" as only parts of the legislation would be put on hold.

In practice, if passed, the legislation would still give the ruling coalition control over the appointment of two Supreme Court justices and possibly the Supreme Court president, as well.

Earlier protests by reservists

It's not the first time that reservists have penned letters or staged protests in times of government crisis. This also happened, for example, during the Lebanon War in 1982, explains Danny Orbach, a military historian at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

"In most cases, it came from the left. It came from reservists who were specifically left-wing, pro-peace, who believed that Israel's policies were immoral or illegal," says Orbach.

This time is different, though. Now it's also the political center who are demonstrating.

"The people who belong to the center have an increasing feeling that they carry the entire state on their shoulders. They pay more taxes, they support the economy, and they support entire groups of the population, especially the ultra-Orthodox," says Orbach.

"They serve in the army more than others," he says, referring to the fact that in general, ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, men don't have to serve the defense forces. "They staff the elite units, they volunteer for reserve duty."

With opposition to the judicial reforms also now emerging from within the security establishment, the real test will be once the legislation is eventually passed, he says. 

"If the Supreme Court will overrule some of the legislation, and the government will refuse to obey the Supreme Court, then the chiefs of the security services, army, police, Shin Bet, Mossad and others will be in very unenviable dilemma, whether they obey the Supreme Court or the government."

https://www.dw.com/en/israels-military-reservists-speak-out-against-judicial-reform/a-65087753

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Israeli defense minister breaks ranks and calls for halt to judicial overhaul

By Amir Tal and Richard Greene, CNN

Published 6:04 AM EDT, Sun March 26, 2023

Jerusalem (CNN) - Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has become the first government minister to call for a halt in controversial plans to change the country’s judicial system.

In a statement on Saturday, Gallant – a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party – called for a pause “for the security of Israel, for the sake of our sons and daughters.”

The proposed laws would give the Israeli government control over the appointment of judges and allow parliament to override Supreme Court decisions.

The government argues the changes are essential to rein in the Supreme Court, which they see as insular, elitist, and no longer representative of the Israeli people. Critics say the plans threaten the foundations of Israeli democracy.

Hundreds of thousands of people have been taking to the streets in recent weeks against the proposals.

In his statement, Gallant also called for an end to the demonstrations.

“We need to stop the demonstrations and protests - and reach out for dialogue,” he said.

“Any manifestation of refusal that eats away at the strength of the IDF and harms the security system should be stopped immediately,” Gallant said, a reference to the refusal of some Israel Defense Forces reservists to train in protest at the government plans.

Soon after his comments, Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called on Netanyahu to fire Gallant.

“Gallant gave in tonight to blackmail and threats from all those anarchists who call for resistance and use the [Israel Defense Forces] as a bargaining tool,” Gvir tweeted.

“Gallant was elected by the votes of right-wing voters and in practice promotes a left-wing agenda. At the moment of truth he collapsed under the pressure of the media and the protesters. I call on the Prime Minister to fire him immediately.”

Two members of Netanyahu and Gallant’s Likud party tweeted their support for the defense minister.

Netanyahu himself has given no indication he will back down. In a speech on Thursday he said he would address the concerns of “both sides,” but pledged to continue twith the reform plans.

Likud lawmaker Danny Danon said it was too soon to know if there were enough rebels in the party to stop the legislation, telling CNN, “We will only know Monday,” when members of the party meet in the Knesset, or parliament.

Netanyahu and his allies control 64 seats in the 120-seat legislature, so in theory five Likud rebels could deprive the coalition of an absolute majority. But lawmakers can abstain or be absent, bringing down the number of votes a law needs in order to pass.

Or, as Danon put it to CNN: “You don’t really need 61.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/26/middleeast/israel-judicial-overhaul-legislation-intl/index.html

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On 3/2/2023 at 8:40 AM, glenn239 said:

Huh.  If only there were some poster on this site who had already identified the possibility of this type of Israeli drift five years ago and advocated for a switch in NATO's focus from Eastern European expansion to quelling Palestine.  :^)

 

Israel’s current domestic unrest seems almost unrelated to the Palestinian problem, though the political fractures certainly manifest themselves in the behavior and handling of the settlers.

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I’d love to have Zuk’s interpretation of events in this thread. IMO from my inexperienced, distant point of view, Bibi has consolidated a group of fringe right wing parties around his to gain a majority with the express goal of maintaining his own power and freedom from criminal charges at Israel’s expense, with the right wing elements being enabled to enact their most theocratic policies without oversight.

Edited by Josh
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Legal reform wise, right now two judges can overturn any law. Two judges appointed by other judges, who were in turn appointed by other judges. 

Even the clandestine backroom deals in Germany are more democratic than that. 

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1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

Not by elected politicians. That's even worse IMO. 

Never the less, a large proportion of the population of Israel apparently disagrees with that position. To the point where the country might find its economic and military power permanently reduced.

I think part of the problem is who and why the move is being made to reduce the power of the judiciary branch: it’s an explicit grab by the most religious parties in Israel to assume power by plurality rather than majority, and likely an attempt by Bibi to avoid conviction.

Edited by Josh
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Bibi fired his defense minister for ask for a delay to the judicial overhaul.

IMO, much like Trump, that asshole would rather burn his country to the ground than accept any outcome that didn’t leave him in charge and free of conviction.

Edited by Josh
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44 minutes ago, Josh said:

Bibi fired his defense minister for ask for a delay to the judicial overhaul.

IMO, much like Trump, that asshole would rather burn his country to the ground than accept any outcome that didn’t leave him in charge and free of conviction.

Just a data point, but my Israeli friends are fully protesting. Lots of "our vet dads fought like maniacs in the hopes of making a decent country" etc.

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If there is one thing the 2020 US election taught me it is that the US is a lot more dependent on precedent and cooperation then I ever would have guessed. Individual states have a lot of mechanisms for completely throwing a monkey wrench into national elections. A lot of what our election process is composed of seem to depend more on good will then I would have ever guessed.

What shocks me even more is that Israel, without a constitution, can basically legislate into an autocracy overnight if its legislature feels like it. Bibi be like: hey Sultan, hold my beer. It never occurred to me there were no formal mechanisms for preventing this.

Edited by Josh
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15 hours ago, Josh said:

I’d love to have Zuk’s interpretation of events in this thread. IMO from my inexperienced, distant point of view, Bibi has consolidated a group of fringe right wing parties around his to gain a majority with the express goal of maintaining his own power and freedom from criminal charges at Israel’s expense, with the right wing elements being enabled to enact their most theocratic policies without oversight.

That is pretty much correct.

Israel's center-left population has been bothered by many laws Bibi and co passed over the years, but this is seen as the last straw. That is why we are protesting (I am part of the political center-left). 

The center-left are liberal in every sense of the word, and are more connected ideologically to the US and Europe. But they are not the only liberal camp in Israel. Many of the Likud voters are also liberal, and one effect of the protest is a fairly significant votes drain from the Likud toward centrist parties.

The Likud and Bibi's elite in general, are afraid of this and they're going all in now, because an election will end them. 

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10 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

The Likud and Bibi's elite in general, are afraid of this and they're going all in now, because an election will end them. 

"End 'em" for about ten minutes, before they elected yet again...

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