U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!

[Josh]

4 hours ago, DKTanker said:

Nobody should discount your, and the left in general, desire to see the Donald win the GOP nomination.  To that end the MSM will do everything within their power to help Trump destroy DeSantis.  

Oh I absolutely want to see the dumpster fire you voted for twice win the nomination, true that. What, are you tired of winning already?

That said, I have a hard time believing that any GOP registered voter who is pro Trump or Desantis is being swayed by an article in the NYTimes. If you guys pick a loser again, that’s all you.

[R011]

14 minutes ago, Josh said:

I also think the police firing on unarmed black people more than any other ethnic group is pretty well documented in and of itself in news media.

 

Actually, a white person in contact with police is slightly more likely to be killed than a black person.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, R011 said:

Actually, a white person in contact with police is slightly more likely to be killed than a black person.

Source?

[DKTanker]

8 hours ago, Josh said:

Oh I absolutely want to see the dumpster fire you voted for twice win the nomination, true that. What, are you tired of winning already?

You obviously pay little attention to my writings if you believe what you wrote.

[DKTanker]

8 hours ago, Josh said:

In Florida even discussing the idea of systemic racism in schools is illegal. 

You of course put your own spin on the premise of the law, and what a circular argument you've attempted while doing so.  Proof of systemic racism is that there is a law prohibiting the teaching of systemic racism?  That's the best you have?  We admonish our children not to define a word by using the word in the definition.  Try again.

[Josh]

6 hours ago, DKTanker said:

You obviously pay little attention to my writings if you believe what you wrote.

I know he’s not your favorite person, but I assume you voted for him anyway in the last two elections. He is still the center of the GOP, and if Desantis replaces him, it will only be because he has fully mimicked Trumps policies and mannerisms without having the baggage of endemic corruption and attempts to overthrow the government. I don’t think Desantis has a strong chance of winning a general but Trump is a dead man walking, and I think he has a better than even chance of winning the nomination because that’s the kind rudderless party of grievance tge GOP has become. I never thought I’d hear a Republican utter the phrase “Reagan Republican “ as a pejorative in my lifetime.

[17thfabn]

4 hours ago, Josh said:

I never thought I’d hear a Republican utter the phrase “Reagan Republican “ as a pejorative in my lifetime.

Temperamentally Reagan and Trump were worlds apart. 

Reagan famously said 

“The person who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is a friend and an ally – not a 20 percent traitor.”

And

The “eleventh commandment” was: “Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.”

I think both of those concepts would be a head scratcher  for Trump. 

I always liked Bush senior, but he is also unpopular with the hard headed wing of the party.

 

[DKTanker]

6 hours ago, Josh said:

 I never thought I’d hear a Republican utter the phrase “Reagan Republican “ as a pejorative in my lifetime.

You must be fairly young, about 15 years ago both George Will and Peggy Noonan (one of Reagan's speechwriters, think Challenger speech) applauded the passing of the Reagan Republican era while admonishing Republican's not to return.

[R011]

On 3/18/2023 at 1:24 AM, Josh said:

Source?

The FBI.  Races of persons arrested and of perpetrators and victims of crime compared to races of persons killed by police.

[Angrybk]

22 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

Temperamentally Reagan and Trump were worlds apart. 

Reagan famously said 

“The person who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is a friend and an ally – not a 20 percent traitor.”

And

The “eleventh commandment” was: “Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.”

I think both of those concepts would be a head scratcher  for Trump. 

I always liked Bush senior, but he is also unpopular with the hard headed wing of the party.

 

I'd vote for a reborn-as-a-cyborg Bush One in a second over any current alternatives (did his duty in WW2 and was a brilliant, ethical, incredibly experienced guy, boo hoo he was kinda boring). I think he would have handled the response to 9/11 vastly better than Bush Two given that he was a past-master at foreign policy -- much better than Bush Two's advisor team -- and if he was successful at that it might have prevented Republicans turning into a nativist party. 

Edited March 19 by Angrybk

[DKTanker]

On 3/19/2023 at 5:22 PM, Angrybk said:

I'd vote for a reborn-as-a-cyborg Bush One in a second over any current alternatives (did his duty in WW2 and was a brilliant, ethical, incredibly experienced guy, boo hoo he was kinda boring). I think he would have handled the response to 9/11 vastly better than Bush Two given that he was a past-master at foreign policy -- much better than Bush Two's advisor team -- and if he was successful at that it might have prevented Republicans turning into a nativist party. 

I'm quite sure we wouldn't have ended up with two near endless wars, and in the end, nearly worthless endeavors.  On the other hand Bush 1 had five foreign policy issues to deal with.  1)Invasion of Panama  2.) Fall of the Berlin Wall / German unification 3.)Liberation of Kuwait 4) Fall of Soviet Union. 5.)Somalia

1) Throwing weight around at the behest of neocon advisors

2.) Sat back and watched events unfold

3a) Was cajoled into it by Margaret Thatcher who famously said, "Remember George, this is no time to go wobbly."

3b) In the aftermath of the Desert Storm Bush encouraged the Iraqi people to rebel against Saddam Hussein.  He then sat back and watched the slaughter of those same rebels.

4.)Sat back and let events unfold

5.) Was shamed into invading Somalia for humanitarian purposes, he did so in the days leading up to transfer of power, and an albatross around the neck, to Bill Clinton

In hindsight, an eventful four year administration.  However, considering Bush the Elder didn't seem to have a purpose to his foreign policy, and at times a shameful policy, it is hard to say what would have transpired after 9/11.

 

Edited March 24 by DKTanker

[Josh]

5 hours ago, Angrybk said:

I'd vote for a reborn-as-a-cyborg Bush One in a second over any current alternatives (did his duty in WW2 and was a brilliant, ethical, incredibly experienced guy, boo hoo he was kinda boring). I think he would have handled the response to 9/11 vastly better than Bush Two given that he was a past-master at foreign policy -- much better than Bush Two's advisor team -- and if he was successful at that it might have prevented Republicans turning into a nativist party. 

+1

I’d go so far as to say he deserved a second term.

[DKTanker]

I know it says, "Grilled by Piers Morgan" but nobody lit the fire before the grilling started.  That said, it's an hour long interview, should you choose not to skip over the advertisements, that is elevated above grade school level and doesn't leave the subject of the interview nodding off into sleep.

 

[Josh]

Trump indicted. Super questionable state level charge. But lets keep that to the Trump thread.

Honestly, it is the best thing that could happen to Trump: it is a supertanker filled with free press ink. I think the person really being thrown under the bus by this is Meatball Ron (although I really hope Trump switches to his alternate idea, "Tiny D"). I don't think that is the intent of the indictment, but I think it will be the short term effect: Desantis has been backburnered for a month or two, at a minimum.

Additionally, this is happen right when Desantis was suffering in polling in time over time measurements of the same poll, and now all the air in the room will be sucked out. Now we're still very far from any actual primary action and probably at least 2-3 months from Tiny D declaring, but he has to be frustrated by the past few weeks.

[Josh]

The indictment seems to have raised a lot of money for Trump and sucked all the air out of the room for DeSantis. I think this effect will be temporary; once he is processed and the charges released, things die down in a month and probably nothing happens for a year. Possibly not even until after the election, in which case one has to question if it even goes forward were Trump to win.

But I think team Trump realizes that one of the ways they can stay ahead of DeSantis is to have any kind of Trump related scandal occur. Tiny D immediately gets drowned out in the air waves, and it costs no money at all -  in fact, it generates a lot of money for the PAC. I would expect them to try to exploit this at least through the primary season. If nothing else, there is probably another indictment from GA waiting to happen. The key problem for team Trump is that they can't control the timing of the scandals - they can pocket the money for later but they can't bottle the media attention for actual primary season.

[17thfabn]

Still I wonder how many times Trump scandals can be used by the former president for fund raising and attention before some of the slime starts to stick and start hurting his poll numbers.

[Skywalkre]

On 3/17/2023 at 8:58 PM, R011 said:

Actually, a white person in contact with police is slightly more likely to be killed than a black person.

I haven't been able to find anything to support this... but I'm not discrediting it.  Most articles I find still point to blacks being more likely to to be killed/harmed.  The 'person in contact' bit has me curious.  Ultimately a lot of these numbers come down to academic definitions (sometimes meant for clarity... sometimes meant to push a narrative).  There's also the factor of what data is being used because a lot of what we think would be tracked isn't.  If you have any more info or a link I'd love to see it.

[Skywalkre]

57 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

Still I wonder how many times Trump scandals can be used by the former president for fund raising and attention before some of the slime starts to stick and start hurting his poll numbers.

None of what's going on on the R side makes any sense right now.

We have DeSantis' poll numbers dropping... but why?  Nothing happened.  Yeah, his Ukraine statement was comically bad but that doesn't seem to justify his drop.

Polls seem to show, and anecdotally statements from lukewarm supporters here on TN seem to lend credence to this, that a lot of Rs would really prefer someone other than Trump.  So... why aren't they giving any love to the other candidates?  I've asked before but no one on here has really had anything negative to say about the other candidates... yet DeSantis is slipping and the other candidates can't even get their foot in the door.

Zeihan had an interesting piece this morning (the more I listen to this guy the more I love him) on what we're likely seeing in '24.

Trump has a cult-like following that given how the Rs use winner-takes-all in their nomination process means Trump is likely to still win the nomination despite the fact, supposedly (and I'm really starting to question how many Rs are only lukewarm Trump supporters), most don't want him.

This will lead to another Biden win... a candidate Ds aren't excited about and Independents don't support policy wise... but they'll all vote for him over Trump.

Man... we thought '16 had the two least likeable candidates ever.  '24 is rolling in here shouting "hold muh beer!"

Edited April 3 by Skywalkre

[R011]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

I haven't been able to find anything to support this... but I'm not discrediting it.  Most articles I find still point to blacks being more likely to to be killed/harmed.  The 'person in contact' bit has me curious.  Ultimately a lot of these numbers come down to academic definitions (sometimes meant for clarity... sometimes meant to push a narrative).  There's also the factor of what data is being used because a lot of what we think would be tracked isn't.  If you have any more info or a link I'd love to see it.

Check the FBI numbers on race of people arrested and compare with FBI numbers on race of people shot by police.

There's very much a media element in the controversy.  The media tends to make national news of controversial deaths of Affrican Americans in encounters with police,m yet give much less time, if any, of similar incidents involving Whites.  For example, there was an incident in Texas involving a White suspct who died under very similar circumstances to George Floyd at about the same time.  News for a day. 

[DKTanker]

3 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

We have DeSantis' poll numbers dropping... but why?  Nothing happened.  Yeah, his Ukraine statement was comically bad but that doesn't seem to justify his drop.

Only comically bad to those that embrace the idea of forever wars.

Edited April 3 by DKTanker

[Josh]

4 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

Still I wonder how many times Trump scandals can be used by the former president for fund raising and attention before some of the slime starts to stick and start hurting his poll numbers.

If no one noticed that all the Stop The Steal money went unspent except for some of Trump's legal fees, it seems exceedingly unlikely the scandal money generator goes out of style this election cycle.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

None of what's going on on the R side makes any sense right now.

We have DeSantis' poll numbers dropping... but why?  Nothing happened.  Yeah, his Ukraine statement was comically bad but that doesn't seem to justify his drop.

Polls seem to show, and anecdotally statements from lukewarm supporters here on TN seem to lend credence to this, that a lot of Rs would really prefer someone other than Trump.  So... why aren't they giving any love to the other candidates?  I've asked before but no one on here has really had anything negative to say about the other candidates... yet DeSantis is slipping and the other candidates can't even get their foot in the door.

Zeihan had an interesting piece this morning (the more I listen to this guy the more I love him) on what we're likely seeing in '24.

Trump has a cult-like following that given how the Rs use winner-takes-all in their nomination process means Trump is likely to still win the nomination despite the fact, supposedly (and I'm really starting to question how many Rs are only lukewarm Trump supporters), most don't want him.

This will lead to another Biden win... a candidate Ds aren't excited about and Independents don't support policy wise... but they'll all vote for him over Trump.

Man... we thought '16 had the two least likeable candidates ever.  '24 is rolling in here shouting "hold muh beer!"

Like most everything Zeihan, I heavily disagree with his logic while broadly agreeing with his conclusion. I don't think independent voters are thinking that Trump intends to change the electoral system, unless that is slang for "he would make every effort to take and hold power regardless of legality". I think independents are simply turned off by the chaos, lies, and election denialism. Similarly his weird contention about foreign policy from administration to administration seems to be a rather wild interpretation of events, though it is true that at least when it comes to China there was barely any daylight between Trump and Biden. But I agree with his point that it would take exceedingly little for Trump to win - basically nothing can stop about 30% of GOP primary voters from coting that way. He can't lose that demo without physically dying. But there is no cult of personality of Desantis - it is easy to picture him completely flaming out over a new revelation, a really poor debate showing, or just those bright white go-go boots he wore to inspect hurricane damage. As for Biden, I think Zeihan over estimates the odds that anyone will even try to run against him - it is rare for either party to have a serious candidate run against an incumbent. I had thought Newsom might come for him but at this point I think Biden will run unopposed. His point about the super delegates falling into line around the centrist is spot on though.

[rmgill]

On 3/17/2023 at 11:41 PM, Josh said:

I also think the police firing on unarmed black people more than any other ethnic group is pretty well documented in and of itself in news media.

Well, if you gesture to the media as a source without substantiation...it must be absolutely true. 

What do the same sources say about the higher propensity for violent crime among the black population? 

~7% of the population, black males, is responsible for and are targets in, 45% of the homicides. 

https://smallestminority.blogspot.com/2003/08/racist-recent-post-on-samizdata.html

On 3/18/2023 at 1:24 AM, Josh said:

Source?

Where's YOUR source? 

Real Clear Politics, John Lott's data on the subject says otherwise than your "media and sources say" source. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2021/04/22/data_undercuts_myth_of_racism_in_police_killings_145640.html#!

You're going to have to do better to show that shootings are unjustified whole pointing at data on actual shootings. Unless you're going to argue that ALL police shootings are unjustified? 

Edited April 4 by rmgill

[Angrybk]

15 hours ago, Josh said:

Like most everything Zeihan, I heavily disagree with his logic while broadly agreeing with his conclusion. I don't think independent voters are thinking that Trump intends to change the electoral system, unless that is slang for "he would make every effort to take and hold power regardless of legality". I think independents are simply turned off by the chaos, lies, and election denialism. Similarly his weird contention about foreign policy from administration to administration seems to be a rather wild interpretation of events, though it is true that at least when it comes to China there was barely any daylight between Trump and Biden. But I agree with his point that it would take exceedingly little for Trump to win - basically nothing can stop about 30% of GOP primary voters from coting that way. He can't lose that demo without physically dying. But there is no cult of personality of Desantis - it is easy to picture him completely flaming out over a new revelation, a really poor debate showing, or just those bright white go-go boots he wore to inspect hurricane damage. As for Biden, I think Zeihan over estimates the odds that anyone will even try to run against him - it is rare for either party to have a serious candidate run against an incumbent. I had thought Newsom might come for him but at this point I think Biden will run unopposed. His point about the super delegates falling into line around the centrist is spot on though.

I don’t see Newsom having a chance in hell. A lot of -Californians- think he’s a rich smug wussy bullshit artist, I really can’t see him being appealing to Middle America at all. 

[DKTanker]

2 minutes ago, Angrybk said:

I don’t see Newsom having a chance in hell. A lot of -Californians- think he’s a rich smug wussy bullshit artist, I really can’t see him being appealing to Middle America at all. 

Imagine, the emasculated bullshit artist from the west coast v toxic masculine bullshit artist from the east coast.