U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!

[Skywalkre]

13 minutes ago, Josh said:

Catholics don't  seem to have ever developed an equivalent to the "Moral Majority" or have political operatives on the level of Jerry Falwell and all of the various decedents there of (Billy Graham, Franklin Graham, etc). I can't think of any Catholic equivalent of those personalities. That said I would expect their voting habits and opinions to be broadly similar.

Per the bolded bit Catholics have actually been pretty split for a long time.  Some quick googlefu seems to indicate this is still the case - Ds actually making up the largest % (44% D/37% R/19% I).  This always surprised me growing up given the RCC's stance on abortion.

I figured Evangelicals would be overwhelmingly R... but according to Pew it's just 56% R/28% D/16% I.

[Skywalkre]

Per Josh's original point... the reality is abortion is going to be an albatross around the R's neck at the Fed level going forward for the foreseeable future.  So... what's the best strategy on their part to counter that?

Personally it would seem best to deflect and focus on other, important issues like DB mentioned.  A huge issue to voters, for very understandable reasons, back during the midterms was inflation control.  I've seen nothing from either party about this in this new Congress.  Biden's taken... paltry measures on this as well.

There's healthcare reform... which still needs to happen.  If Rs could deliver reform that brings costs down that would obviously go a long way.  Again, sadly, the Rs have no agenda in that area, either.

If they just put their fingers in their ears, avoid it, and focus on stuff like investigating Biden... yeah... their base will be happy but their base is not enough to win in a general election.

[Josh]

56 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

I figured Evangelicals would be overwhelmingly R... but according to Pew it's just 56% R/28% D/16% I.

I suspect those numbers include all black evangelicals from the south as well, which is a very different thing. The whole "souls to the polls" thing.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Josh

[17thfabn]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

Per the bolded bit Catholics have actually been pretty split for a long time.  Some quick googlefu seems to indicate this is still the case - Ds actually making up the largest % (44% D/37% R/19% I).  This always surprised me growing up given the RCC's stance on abortion.

I figured Evangelicals would be overwhelmingly R... but according to Pew it's just 56% R/28% D/16% I.

Studies I have seen show that being a Catholic has very little effect on ones politics in the U.S.  E.G. a person of German heritage who is middle class and Catholic tends to vote the same as Methodist of German heritage who is middle class.

I was raised in a denomination that would be considered Evangelical. I don't recall the church as being very political. Most of the older people I knew where Democrats due to Union issues. 

[DKTanker]

3 hours ago, FALightFighter said:

I'm not Steven.

Nor am I Stephen, I'm an atheist and you could replace my name with "Catholic Church" and I've had the same conversation countless times.  Many of them right here on this Grate Sight.

[DB]

8 hours ago, FALightFighter said:

I'm not Steven.

Birth control is acceptable.

I don't approve of making the government confiscate money from taxpayers to provide birth control to anyone who asked for it.

"Spreading ones legs" outside of marriage is one among many unacceptable behaviors, both for men and for women. But your side of the debate is the side that wanted to remove all of the stigma from poor choices.

Well, quite.

[Josh]

Deleted, not relevant to the OP.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Josh

[17thfabn]

Governor DeSantis released a policy book today. Has not announced he is running yet, but book releases such as this a general a 1st step before announcing candidacy. 

Does any one really read these books, be they from Democrats or Republicans?

[Skywalkre]

On 2/28/2023 at 4:24 PM, 17thfabn said:

Governor DeSantis released a policy book today. Has not announced he is running yet, but book releases such as this a general a 1st step before announcing candidacy. 

Does any one really read these books, be they from Democrats or Republicans?

The pundits do... gives them something to report on in our 24h news cycle.  As for actual voters... even my diehard-liberal-American-History-PhD friend has never read one of those books.

Interestingly enough... in my feed and sources I check regularly I haven't heard a peep about DeSantis' book.  Maybe folks are waiting til he actually announces his candidacy.  Speaking of that... what's taking him so long?

[DKTanker]

54 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

Interestingly enough... in my feed and sources I check regularly I haven't heard a peep about DeSantis' book.  Maybe folks are waiting til he actually announces his candidacy.  Speaking of that... what's taking him so long?

He's under no obligation to do so.  I might point out that Trump didn't announce until June 16 of 2015, the day after Jeb Bush announced.  Chris Christie waited until the end of June.  John Kasich didn't announce until July 2015 as did Scott Walker.  The earliest declarant was Ted Cruz, March 23, 2015.  So maybe the question should be, what's the rush?

In any case, as I understand it, Florida law mandates that a sitting governor must resign before seeking and campaigning for an alternate political office.

[Josh]

I had to actually look up what he was talking about; I'd heard nothing of Desantis' book. I feel like every politician who's running for president cuts one of these and whoever the fan base is eats it up, along with a bunch of pundits and analysts who are required to read it for work reasons.

In any case, Desantis will run against Trump and it will be quite the race. He's managed to not have to declare his position explicitly on a number of subjects so far, including Trump himself, but soon he's going to have to get his hands dirty and it will be interesting to see how he well he plays with national audience. Most people close to him seem to indicate he has a certain lack of charisma when he isn't running on a script.

[17thfabn]

5 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

zInterestingly enough... in my feed and sources I check regularly I haven't heard a peep about DeSantis' book.  Maybe folks are waiting til he actually announces his candidacy.  Speaking of that... what's taking him so long?

He could surprise every one and NOT Run!

[Josh]

2 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

He could surprise every one and NOT Run!

And Trump could just drop out of the race!

[17thfabn]

Trump drooping out of the race would be even more surprising unless he has a serious health problem or is in jail.

[Skywalkre]

16 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

He could surprise every one and NOT Run!

Nope, DKTanker was right - apparently he can't announce he's running under current FL law without stepping down as governor first.  However, it sounds like the legislature may change that in the near future so he can remain governor.

[Josh]

23 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

Trump drooping out of the race would be even more surprising unless he has a serious health problem or is in jail.

Trump is already on the record as stating he'd run even if indicted.

[Skywalkre]

15 minutes ago, Josh said:

Trump is already on the record as stating he'd run even if indicted.

If the bit about him running mostly to avoid prosecution is true Trump may be a candidate til he dies.  🤣

[17thfabn]

8 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Nope, DKTanker was right - apparently he can't announce he's running under current FL law without stepping down as governor first.  However, it sounds like the legislature may change that in the near future so he can remain governor.

Kentucky did something similar for Senator Rand Paul in 2016. They had a law that you couldn't be seeking two positions in the same primary. Paul was running to get the nomination for senate to keep his seat. He also wanted to seek the Republican nomination for president. 

To help Paul instead of having a primary for the presidential nomination as they usually would they had a caucus. So Rand Paul ran in the primary to get the nomination for U.S. Senate to keep his seat. And ran in the "Caucus" for the Republican nomination for president. Ironically Paul withdrew before Kentucky had its "caucus" so it didn't matter to Paul.

I put caucus in parentheses because the way Kentucky ran its caucus was pretty much the same as it would have a primary.

[Josh]

I've been rethinking this a bit after reading some articles on DeSantis. I think I'll up the odds of Trump pulling ahead in the long run. DeSantis, as the non-Trump person to beat, will be taking fire from every single direction and wing of the GOP. He'll not just have to fight to differentiate himself from Trump, he'll also have to firmly separate himself from all moderate candidates on a number of policies. I think that is going to be tough for him; he's liable to isolate some support from some quarters of the party. I also think any kind of prosecution/indictment of Trump, and it seems like there will be at least one, gives Trump a huge amount of free press and a boost in the polls. And finally, I think Trump can attack DeSantis based on his pre MAGA record as being RINO in a red hat.

 

The other thought I had is that it Trump doesn't have to run as a third party candidate to ruin the election for DeSantis - all he has to do is tell his chunk of the voting block not to vote for him. For Trump, this would be out of spite, not for any rational political reason, but he would probably justify it with something to the effect of DeSantis not being able to fight the establishment the way he can. He'd make up something along those lines to justify just giving the election away - the fact that the system wouldn't "allow" DeSantis to win and that he isn't tough enough to fight said system.

But I don't even think Trump would have to go that far: pretty much anything short of a Trump endorsement of DeSantis would probably cut into the GOP base in the general election, if enough Trump voters simply didn't go to the polls. DeSantis is likely to be about as polarizing ono the left as Trump is, given his culture war bonafides, while at the same time IMO likely not inspiring the same kind of loyalty among the base. I believe there is a cross section of voters that only show up to the polls when Trump is on the ballot and otherwise stay home; I think we've seen it in the last two midterms.

[Skywalkre]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3884837-hogan-says-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2024/

Hadn't heard his name before as a potential candidate, but his reasoning for not running is interesting.  He realized he had a very long shot and didn't want to dilute the field further.  Doing so would just hand the nomination to Trump or Desantis, thus the smaller the field the slightly better chance one of those long-shots already in has.

[Josh]

49 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3884837-hogan-says-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2024/

Hadn't heard his name before as a potential candidate, but his reasoning for not running is interesting.  He realized he had a very long shot and didn't want to dilute the field further.  Doing so would just hand the nomination to Trump or Desantis, thus the smaller the field the slightly better chance one of those long-shots already in has.

I want to say he ran in 2016 or something? It seems a little silly to make a big announcement that you *aren't* running when no one knows you and no one cares.

[Skywalkre]

A few things I've heard in recent days.

1) Peter Zeihan mentioned in a recent daily update how a political pollster he knows well told him how Moderates in the US overwhelmingly hate Biden's policies... but back in the midterms they showed up in force because they hated the Trump-backed candidates even more and helped give the Ds the effective win that they got.  If they showed up like that in a midterm imagine what will happen if Trump himself and more of his cronies are on the ballots in '24.

2) Several pundits have mentioned how many of the early R primaries are winner take all... and as such even if Trump sticks around just 30-35% he could jump out to a commanding and early lead.

3) Saw a few pundits talking about overall favorability ratings amongst Rs.  Trump was the overwhelming leader with like 80% with DeSantis just behind him.  Someone like Haley was down around 40-50%.

Made me wonder... why?  How?  Trump is a whiny man-child with a laundry list of issues.  Using Haley as an example I asked about what reasons there were NOT to like her a few weeks ago... and got nothing.  Why are Rs getting behind someone that would likely guarantee a D win, saying they view him in an overall context more favorably, then someone like Haley who no one really knows a lot about.

I sometimes think the lack of support for Haley (and some of these other low % showers) is that the media doesn't hate them... and Rs are just knee-jerk reacting and supporting whoever the Left seems to hate the most (as if that's some useful metric of value in a politician).

[DKTanker]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

I sometimes think the lack of support for Haley (and some of these other low % showers) is that the media doesn't hate them... and Rs are just knee-jerk reacting and supporting whoever the Left seems to hate the most (as if that's some useful metric of value in a politician).

Haley is getting the support she has earned.  Right out the gate she said her greatest qualification was that she was the first female POC to be elected a state governor.  Big deal.  What exactly did she accomplish as governor of SC?  That is a legitimate question and one I haven't heard her answer.  Unfortunately anything she was able to accomplish as UN ambassador is overshadowed by being part of the Trump administration, and then walking out less than two years into her appointment.

Don't discount the fact that Trump has name recognition going for him.  Most people don't yet recognize names such as Haley, DeSantis, Hogan, and Ramaswamey much less know anything about them.

[Josh]

 

Most people on this board seem to at least understand Trumps electability problem, even if they deny the underlying reasons why he’s likely unelectable. But outside that, electability doesn’t seem to be a major consideration. Desantis is fighting the culture war and winning and for the GOP base, this appears to be the most important goal. All any other candidate is going to do is take away votes from Desantis, IMO.

[DKTanker]

44 minutes ago, Josh said:

 All any other candidate is going to do is take away votes from Desantis, IMO.

I'm sure Trump understands that, just as I understand Trump will do whatever he can to ensure that if he doesn't get the GOP nomination, he will have so damaged everyone else they'll not stand a chance in the general.  Having said that, I think the MSM will do its utmost to push Trump to a GOP nomination victory.

Edited March 15, 2023 by DKTanker