U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!

[glenn239]

13 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

It was not the triumphant easy march to the Democratic nomination that was expected. She still won without the super delegates. 

In the 2020 Democratic race, I recall that all the candidates except Biden and Sanders all dropped out en mass in a stunning move that has never been adequately explained.  The appearance was that the fix was in.

I've never understood why the supers existed in the first place, except as a fall back in case the wrong candidate might win?

[Skywalkre]

On 1/26/2024 at 3:57 PM, 17thfabn said:

Speaking of Secretary Clinton I had an EPIPHANY! 

In 2016 I heard it said Hilary Clinton's support was a mile wide but an inch deep. Meaning She had broad support but little enthusiasm. 

On the other hand Trump's support in 2016, 2020 & 2024 is a quarter mile wide but among those who are dyed in the wool MAGA Trumpers they are very enthusiastic. These people are what, 20 to 25% of the population? 

I would say since 1980 the only other presidential candidates that had that kind of enthusiasm were Reagan,  Obama and possibly Sanders.

Two points.

First, from polling in these initial contests it seems more accurate to pin the diehard MAGA crowd as ~15% of registered voters.  We'd always thought that crowd was upwards of 60% of the R base... but polling seems to indicate it's closer to 40% (he's gotten around 50% of the vote in these early contests and polling put 80% of his voters as diehard) and Rs make up about 30% of registered voters (.4 x .3 = .12).  Throw in the Independents who are also in that camp (not many) and you're looking at probably around 15%.

Second, the one thing that's different between Obama (Reagan was before my time) is that Trump also has a dedicated element of voters who make a point to show up and vote against him.  We have those estimates showing that's at least 10% of Rs (possibly larger now).  You have who-knows-how-many in Independent and D circles for various reasons (hard to tell how much overturning RvW gained him permanent counter-voters).

I think it was... Josh? who brought up the point that many voters haven't seriously thought of Nov at this point.  Once we get closer and folks realize it's Trump vs Biden again the polling could change drastically from where it currently is.

[Skywalkre]

And while Trump has a lot of baggage going for him... stories like this will also hold Biden back because as sitting POTUS he'll take the blame.

Quote

Record number of Americans are homeless amid nationwide surge in rent, report finds

A growing number of Americans are ending up homeless as soaring rents in recent years squeeze their budgets.

According to a Jan. 25 report from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, roughly 653,000 people reported experiencing homelessness in January of 2023, up roughly 12% from the same time a year prior and 48% from 2015. That marks the largest single-year increase in the country's unhoused population on record, Harvard researchers said. 

Homelessness, long a problem in states such as California and Washington, has also increased in historically more affordable parts of the U.S.. Arizona, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas have seen the largest growths in their unsheltered populations due to rising local housing costs. 

That alarming jump in people struggling to keep a roof over their head came amid blistering inflation in 2021 and 2022 and as surging rental prices across the U.S. outpaced worker wage gains. Although a range of factors can cause homelessness, high rents and the expiration of pandemic relief last year contributed to the spike in housing insecurity, the researchers found. 

"In the first years of the pandemic, renter protections, income supports and housing assistance helped stave off a considerable rise in homelessness. However, many of these protections ended in 2022, at a time when rents were rising rapidly and increasing numbers of migrants were prohibited from working. As a result, the number of people experiencing homelessness jumped by nearly 71,000 in just one year," according to the report.

Rent in the U.S. has steadily climbed since 2001. In analyzing Census and real estate data, the Harvard researchers found that half of all U.S. households across income levels spent between 30% and 50% of their monthly pay on housing in 2022, defining them as "cost-burdened." Some 12 million tenants were severely cost-burdened that year, meaning they spent more than half their monthly pay on rent and utilities, up 14% from pre-pandemic levels.

People earning between $45,000 and $74,999 per year took the biggest hit from rising rents — on average, 41% of their paycheck went toward rent and utilities, the Joint Center for Housing Studies said.

Tenants should generally allocate no more than 30% of their income toward rent, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Although the rental market is showing signs of cooling, the median rent in the U.S. was $1,964 in December 2023, up 23% from before the pandemic, according to online housing marketplace Rent. By comparison, inflation-adjusted weekly earnings for the median worker rose 1.7% between 2019 and 2023, government data shows.

"Rapidly rising rents, combined with wage losses in the early stages of the pandemic, have underscored the inadequacy of the existing housing safety net, especially in times of crisis," the Harvard report stated.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rent-homelessness-harvard-report-center-for-housing-studies/

[rmgill]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

Two points.

First, from polling in these initial contests it seems more accurate to pin the diehard MAGA crowd as ~15% of registered voters.  We'd always thought that crowd was upwards of 60% of the R base... but polling seems to indicate

We figured out in 2016 that polls under-represent the right because they don't want to talk to pollsters. 

[17thfabn]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

First, from polling in these initial contests it seems more accurate to pin the diehard MAGA crowd as ~15% of registered voters.  We'd always thought that crowd was upwards of 60% of the R base... but polling seems to indicate it's closer to 40% (he's gotten around 50% of the vote in these early contests and polling put 80% of his voters as diehard) and Rs make up about 30% of registered voters (.4 x .3 = .12).  Throw in the Independents who are also in that camp (not many) and you're looking at probably around 15%.

I think it was... Josh? who brought up the point that many voters haven't seriously thought of Nov at this point.  Once we get closer and folks realize it's Trump vs Biden again the polling could change drastically from where it currently is.

I pulled the 25 % of MAGA Trumpers out of the air. It was a guess.  25 % versus 15% isn't a bad guesstimate. 

I agree with who ever said it, probably the majority of Americans are not paying much attention to the election at this point in time.

Edited January 30 by 17thfabn

[Josh]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

We figured out in 2016 that polls under-represent the right because they don't want to talk to pollsters. 

The polls of 2020 and in particular 2022 were a lot more accurate. In fact 2022 (admittedly a year Trump *wasn't* running, and there does seem to be a type of voter that only shows up when he does) were actually pretty dead on.

That said, I think there are a lot of reasons not to trust the polling this year in either direction, certainly not this far out. But the exit polling of Iowa (New Hampshire is its own unique weird thing) does not really point to a lot of enthusiasm for the Trump from his party. I've never met a single person who was enthusiastic for Biden so far, but as Skywalkre mentioned, Trump brings his own level of enthusiasm to the Democratic party. We shall see. I think if there is a Trump conviction that his chances fall off a cliff, but I think the only case that could go to trial before November is the Jan 6th one.

[Skywalkre]

Been a week but didn't see any mention of the SC primaries.  Biden won handily, so at this point it's safe to say his challengers really aren't... but turnout was atrocious.  Around 4% last I saw.  Now the question becomes... is that because folks know there's no real challenge and that there's no point to show up or is it because enthusiasm is pretty low (the latter seems most likely).

Throw in the comments the special counsel made about Biden's mental capacity, the economy (for average people), and the border (though Rs shot themselves in the foot on this one) and contrast this with Trump's polarizing nature coupled to a possible conviction... I can honestly see an election this Nov where we see a staggering drop in turnout of 10% or so.  That would take us back to 90s levels of voter participation.  Not because folks aren't as interested... but because neither candidate has anyone excited for them and everyone is honestly sick of the pathetic choices we have yet again.

Just... wow...

Edited February 12 by Skywalkre

[Skywalkre]

Will also be curious to see how the border continues to evolve.  Many Rs think they have a slam dunk issue on their hand but when you factor in the compromise Senate bill was dead in the water because R pols openly saying they'd rather leave the border an issue than give Biden a win (is it really an invasion and serious if you're willing to pass on some improvements and leave things as is?) the polling seems to indicate your average voter is not amused.  A poll I saw at the start of last week showed Rs holding just a 10% lead over Ds (40% to 30%) from voters in who they felt could handle the issue better.  That used to be a much bigger lead for Rs...

[17thfabn]

8 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Will also be curious to see how the border continues to evolve.  Many Rs think they have a slam dunk issue on their hand but when you factor in the compromise Senate bill was dead in the water because R pols openly saying they'd rather leave the border an issue than give Biden a win

That was a really stupid thing for the Republicans to say. The optics were terrible. Who exactly said that? I have it reported in the news that way. 

The issue with the bill was it was a very bad bill. If I remember correctly about 4,000 a day would be let in before triggering a response from the admin, and they could wave taking action.

[Josh]

Trump himself said something to effect he killed the deal. What is probably worse is that the senate seems likely to pass every other part of the deal *except* the border changes…so the GOP is literally throwing away any concessions it won and simply giving Trump something to run on and praying he wins and that somehow they can still make policy when that happens. Spoiler alert: they won’t be able to pass anything without the Dems even if Trump wins, and if Ukraine makes a peace with Russia “in a day”, they won’t have anything to negotiate with.

 

The House has also done nothing about the next shutdown. There is no time left for anything but yet another CR with democrats support, and I doubt Johnson survives doing that again after tripping on his own dick in the impeachment and Israeli support votes.

[Skywalkre]

1 hour ago, 17thfabn said:

That was a really stupid thing for the Republicans to say. The optics were terrible. Who exactly said that? I have it reported in the news that way. 

The issue with the bill was it was a very bad bill. If I remember correctly about 4,000 a day would be let in before triggering a response from the admin, and they could wave taking action.

One House R (from TX of all places... again, I thought they were under invasion) blatantly said it a week or two before the deal was reached.  I've heard it reported Trump said it plainly in a post on that alternate X site but I haven't actually seen it.  Still, it's widely reported the Rs are avoiding/killing the bill to keep this a political issue.

And yes, the optics are terrible because it highlights this is more dysfunction for the sake of short-term political gain.  Someone was saying just a few days ago how Rs have become a party of just opposing and not actually doing anything and their reaction to this bill highlights this.  As an example of this dysfunction the R senator that was working on this deal was apparently censured/threatened with censure by his state R party... for simply working with Ds to craft the bill.  So... a senator doing his job, actually crafting legislation (something Congress has failed at horribly for most of my lifetime), legislation that while not perfect does address some issues... that's a person that deserves censure?  Stuff like this is why the R party looks like a complete joke these days.

There was a story on the front page of reddit just a few days after the deal was released stating Rs were already regretting their decision because they got more concessions than they could have hoped for from the Ds and will likely never see that much again.

With all that being said was it a good deal?  No... I think everyone would agree on that.  But it took some steps that needed to be taken (such as addressing the issues with asylum, more money for detention, etc.).  The problem was too many Rs now, and we see this clearly here on TN, think any bill is bad if it's not 100% what they want... but government can't function in an environment like that.

Again, too... if you're bitching and moaning that you're under invasion why would you not take a bill that isn't perfect, get some things that help the situation, and then address it the way you want when you take power down the road?  Per that polling I highlighted the Rs have lost most of the Independents on this issue and rightfully so.  The sad thing is, and we can see that from how this has been discussed here on TN, is that Rs are still clamoring along with the typical dysfunctional talking points instead of being pissed off at their elected officials for not doing their damn job.  Your average MAGA person would rather keep it bad to help their chances of winning while claiming to be the victim.  Just... astonishing...

[Skywalkre]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Trump himself said something to effect he killed the deal. What is probably worse is that the senate seems likely to pass every other part of the deal *except* the border changes…so the GOP is literally throwing away any concessions it won and simply giving Trump something to run on and praying he wins and that somehow they can still make policy when that happens. Spoiler alert: they won’t be able to pass anything without the Dems even if Trump wins, and if Ukraine makes a peace with Russia “in a day”, they won’t have anything to negotiate with.

 

The House has also done nothing about the next shutdown. There is no time left for anything but yet another CR with democrats support, and I doubt Johnson survives doing that again after tripping on his own dick in the impeachment and Israeli support votes.

We should start a tracker of all the things holding candidates back this Nov (I'd say we include a list of all the positives... but seriously... do either candidate have any?).

Biden
- inflation/economy (for the average person... as a whole/big picture/on average the economy looks good but that's only because the folks at the top are skewing all the figures)
- age (physical)
- age (mental -> Hur report)
- Gaza (all the ME immigrant D voters in key states)
- border (less so after Rs flubbed this one... but polling still shows R have the lead)

Trump
- Rs continually showing their inability to govern (McCarthy getting kicked, refusal to compromise, etc.)
- Congressional flubs (Myorkas impeachment fail, possible repeat of Speaker getting the boot, rejecting the border deal on arrival)
- threat to democracy (this goes back to '22 where Trump backed candidates openly stating they'd ignore election results)
- Trump (outside the MAGA crowd folks, even many Rs, think he's a petulant, self-absorbed, jerk who just keeps shooting himself in the foot)
- foreign policy (outside the MAGA crowd [a recurring them here] no one cares for his foreign policy)
- mental (could be age related but I think the lack of physical signs like Biden shows means most folks just mark this off as him being an idiot)
- Indictments (not going to lie... almost forgot this one... there's just so much to track with Trump)

By the time we get to Nov these lists will be huge... which is why I'm starting to think we could have abysmal turnout this year.

[Tim Sielbeck]

2 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

That was a really stupid thing for the Republicans to say. The optics were terrible. Who exactly said that? I have it reported in the news that way. 

The issue with the bill was it was a very bad bill. If I remember correctly about 4,000 a day would be let in before triggering a response from the admin, and they could wave taking action.

It is more about funding for Ukraine than fixing issues with the border.

[rmgill]

Sorry Sky, but Biden could close the border today. He reversed Trump era policies and opened it up. It doesn’t beed legislation to effect a closure to the illegals. 
 

Anything else is just political gas lighting. 

[seahawk]

Just pull back the US troops from Europe and have the guard the Southern border. Win-Win.

[Josh]

The senate approved the foreign aid package rather handily and quickly, with no border legislation in it as Trump asked for. This puts Johnson in a bind, since the aid for Israel is included and it would most likely pass in the House. I expect him to ignore it for now, but I also expect the senate to ignore his Israel only aid package, and perhaps there is a horse trade over CR budget crunch.

[Josh]

NYHouse seat goes to Dems in special election. House Republicans can only afford two defections once he is sworn in. Dem base turnout continues to drive their special election victories, which means they are not particularly good indicators of a general presidential election, but the trend over the last two years is never the less Dem victory after Dem victory. I suspect Dobbs drives this more than even Trump.

[17thfabn]

.I wonder if the Republicans have the sense to run some one else in November?

[Josh]

8 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

.I wonder if the Republicans have the sense to run some one else in November?

Not remotely, though lucky for them Biden is insisting on running. Almost anyone else would wipe the floor with Trump.

[rmgill]

We have this democratic primary process in the GOP across the states....

[Josh]

10 hours ago, rmgill said:

We have this democratic primary process in the GOP across the states....

I took “Republicans “ to mean the voters.

[Skywalkre]

On 2/12/2024 at 12:30 PM, rmgill said:

Sorry Sky, but Biden could close the border today. He reversed Trump era policies and opened it up. It doesn’t beed legislation to effect a closure to the illegals.

Two things.  First, he was playing politics just like the Rs with his comments about shutting it down after getting it passed.  Second, while he could probably sign an EO to shut it down (not even Trump did that) it's questionable how effective that would be.

One of the biggest issues at the border is the asylum system and how so many illegals now are using it as a means to get into the country.  There are legal issues/questions about this and from discussions/articles I saw even an EO shutting down the border wouldn't change what would happen if someone came up and claimed asylum under current law.

This is where the Rs really dropped the ball.  That compromise bill gave up a lot of concessions from the Ds in how asylum seekers would be processed at the border.  It would have taken it out of the hands of judges (the current system is vastly understaffed with a multi-year waitlist), passed it to BP officers, given them the power to effectively make decisions on the spot, and the new standards would have been so difficult to reach that the overwhelming majority of those claiming it would have failed and thus could be turned back immediately.

Now many are doubting the Ds will ever agree to such concessions ever again... and frankly I can't blame them.

[Skywalkre]

On 2/14/2024 at 6:03 AM, Josh said:

NYHouse seat goes to Dems in special election. House Republicans can only afford two defections once he is sworn in. Dem base turnout continues to drive their special election victories, which means they are not particularly good indicators of a general presidential election, but the trend over the last two years is never the less Dem victory after Dem victory. I suspect Dobbs drives this more than even Trump.

Thing is, Santos was elected post-Dobbs decision.  You had a... 17 point turnaround in the results of that special election compared to back in '22?  Agree that with such poor turnout that's not the best indicator of how Nov will go... but still remarkable.

Over here I heard two big reasons for the shift.  The first was both candidates ran as moderates and for Rs that's a dirty word.  Second, the R candidate apparently stated on record she wouldn't support Trump if he's convicted in one of these upcoming cases.  That's another massive strike in the eyes of the MAGA crowd.  I can understand why it looks like most of them just stayed home.

[rmgill]

On 2/20/2024 at 5:15 PM, Skywalkre said:

Two things.  First, he was playing politics just like the Rs with his comments about shutting it down after getting it passed.  Second, while he could probably sign an EO to shut it down (not even Trump did that) it's questionable how effective that would be.

Bull crap. Biden could execute the same policies that Trump did. He's not. He's doing the opposite. He's turned the supply of illegals up to 11. 

 

On 2/20/2024 at 5:15 PM, Skywalkre said:

One of the biggest issues at the border is the asylum system and how so many illegals now are using it as a means to get into the country.  There are legal issues/questions about this and from discussions/articles I saw even an EO shutting down the border wouldn't change what would happen if someone came up and claimed asylum under current law.

This is where the Rs really dropped the ball. 

Oh. Not the Democrats. They cna't pass ANY legislation. 

The democrats want more open borders. They're getting it. Remember all the sanctuary city crap during Trump's presidency. 
 

On 2/20/2024 at 5:15 PM, Skywalkre said:

That compromise bill gave up a lot of concessions from the Ds in how asylum seekers would be processed at the border. 

And it set the tap to ALWAYS be opena nd never close. Sorry. You don't get to gaslight like this here. 

STOP IT. 

On 2/20/2024 at 5:15 PM, Skywalkre said:

It would have taken it out of the hands of judges (the current system is vastly understaffed with a multi-year waitlist), passed it to BP officers, given them the power to effectively make decisions on the spot, and the new standards would have been so difficult to reach that the overwhelming majority of those claiming it would have failed and thus could be turned back immediately.

How many immigrants have you conceded to hosting in your home? Are you picking any up at the airport today? 

 

[BansheeOne]

As expected of course, but still a low blow for Nikki:

Quote

Donald Trump beats Nikki Haley in South Carolina primary

10 hours ago

Donald Trump has extended his lead over Nikki Haley for the Republican presidential nomination after winning the South Carolina primary. The result is a major blow for Haley in her home state.

Former US President Donald Trump went into Saturday's Republican primary in South Carolina as the front-runner and emerged victorious over the state's former governor Nikki Haley.

The Associated Press declared Trump the winner as polls closed at 7 p.m. EST, based on a survey of Republican voters in the state. Projections by CNN and NBC also declared Trump the winner.

Trump gained approximately 60% of the vote, while Haley received some 40%, according to pollster Edison Research.

"I have never seen the Republican Party so unified as it is right now," Trump said in a victory speech delivered moments after polls closed.

He did not mention Haley once in about 30 minutes of remarks.

Despite losing in her home state, Haley has vowed to stay in the race.

"I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run ... I'm a woman of my word. I'm not giving up this fight when a majority of Americans disapprove of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden," she said after the vote.

"Forty percent is not some tiny group," Haley added. "There are huge numbers of voters in our Republican primaries who are saying they want an alternative."

[...]

Voters unswayed by Trump's legal battles

Haley spent much of the campaign in her home state pointing out that 77-year-old Trump faces four criminal indictments.

But nearly two-thirds (65%) of Republican primary voters said Trump would still be fit for the presidency if he were convicted of a crime, according to exit polls.

The same percentage of those who voted said they do not think US President Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2016, the polls showed.

Rather than the charges against Trump, voters told pollsters they were most concerned about immigration (41%) and the economy (31%). Abortion policy was most important to 10% of primary voters and foreign policy was the top issue for 11%, according to exit polls.

https://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-wins-south-carolina-republican-primary-defeating-nikki-haley-in-her-home-state/a-68363766