BansheeOne Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 hours ago, Skywalkre said: Oh puh-lease... not this garbage again. Some of y'all need to stop drinking the kool-aid from these far right websites that masquerade as 'news' outlets. There is no credible evidence to believe the Ds are going to pull such a maneuver. This is reminiscent of a lot of ridiculous claims were made back when Biden took office in this thread here on TN. None of that shit remotely came to pass and yet you all are still passing it as a possibility. Get. A. Grip. 🙄 PS - Also bookmarking this to bring back before the election. This is comedy gold. I bet you didn't believe the prediction that Kamala would replace Biden a day after mid-term, too, and see how that went! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 (edited) 15 hours ago, rmgill said: The gatewaypundit (it's so cute many of you mock the NYT as being biased and then post drivel from that site like it's some amazing piece of journalism)... linking to a NY Post article... where one of two 'sources' is a gossip columnist. You have got to be kidding me?! Edited January 24 by Skywalkre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 (edited) 10 hours ago, BansheeOne said: I bet you didn't believe the prediction that Kamala would replace Biden a day after mid-term, too, and see how that went! As I mentioned in the predictions thread... folks should go take a look at all the various predictions folks made in the Biden thread after he took office. Some were clearly ridiculous at the time, clearly didn't come close to happening, and all these years later did folks have a realization that maybe they're seeing the world through some really fucked up, biased lenses? NOPE... we just get more of the same... /facepalm Edited January 24 by Skywalkre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X-Files Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 10 hours ago, X-Files said: Lulz Edited January 25 by 17thfabn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sardaukar Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Pity that Republicans are so into Trump. I think Nikki Haley would wipe floor with Biden. Trump is another thing, since he is so hated (and for some good reasons). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 hours ago, X-Files said: Lulz In fairness to Biden the New Hampshire primary wasn't recognized by the Democratic party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 40 minutes ago, 17thfabn said: In fairness to Biden the New Hampshire primary wasn't recognized by the Democratic party. Why? Insufficiently diverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold Jones Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12 minutes ago, rmgill said: Why? Insufficiently diverse. Kinda, the party decided South Carolina should be first because they said that neither Iowa nor NH were sufficiently representative of the national vote. New Hampshire is required by state law to have the first in the nation primary. The Democrats said that no delegates awarded by their primary would be recognized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Sardaukar said: Pity that Republicans are so into Trump. I think Nikki Haley would wipe floor with Biden. Trump is another thing, since he is so hated (and for some good reasons). I haven't seen recent polling comparing Haley to Biden... but the reality is both Biden and Trump have some serious issues facing them. Biden has two major issues across the board (inflation and immigration) weighing him down. In certain swing states where he barely won in '20 (like MI) he has his handling of Gaza hurting him with the large ME immigrant populations present. The inflation thing really isn't his fault but American voters have a history of punishing the sitting POTUS for economic woes (you could actually put more blame on Trump than Biden for that problem). He certainly has some blame for the immigration problem, but like most issues discussed here on TN there's some nuance to that that's being lost in all the hate being spewed (that, like inflation, voters will gloss over as well). Neither of those will go away by Nov and some Rs in Congress have already said they'll try to stall immigration reform because "that would be a win for Biden." With all of that being said... NH offered a glimmer of hope for him. His campaign ignored the state completely yet he won, with a true grass-roots write-in campaign, more votes than Obama did back in '12. Biden also has more money than Trump will have and hasn't had to spend any of it yet. Trump might have more serious problems. Polling out of Iowa showed that 15% of caucus goers would not vote for him. Half of Haley's voters in that caucus (so about 10% of those who voted) stated they would actually vote for Biden. In NH the number who said they wouldn't vote for Trump rose to 21%. Polling shows he's lost the support of college-educated Rs and Independents as well as the vote of wealthy Rs. Some pundits have commented he appears to have a ceiling and that's with blue-collar Rs (with a smattering of Independents). As Zeihan keeps pointing out we saw a large shift from normal Independent voting patterns back in '20 against Trump because of fears for our democracy. That's a major point Biden's campaign has already been hammering home and if Trump backs more batshit crazy candidates in various states that openly state they'll ignore the law... expect more Independents to vote against Trump by voting for Biden. I have a good friend who has a PhD in American political history. We were talking last night and he thought we could see an election where the turnout is lower than '20... maybe 60%... and a situation arises where Biden supporters sit home out of frustration but Trump opponents show up to vote against him. I'll be curious what more we learn from the SC primary. What will turnout be for both. Will Black voters show up in force to support Biden. What will exit polls show as far as this group of Rs who would either stay away or actually vote against Trump. It's going to be a remarkable election. We have two candidates even less liked than Trump-Clinton were back in '16. That's saying something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BansheeOne Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Not only would Haley wipe the floor with Biden, she'd also wring him out, hang him out to dry, and drop him into a drawer afterwards. Oh well, I'm sure the Republican base has good reasons to forego her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Der Zeitgeist Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, BansheeOne said: Not only would Haley wipe the floor with Biden, she'd also wring him out, hang him out to dry, and drop him into a drawer afterwards. Oh well, I'm sure the Republican base has good reasons to forego her. This guy recently said it like this: Haley simply isn't fucked up enough for the MAGA base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, BansheeOne said: Oh well, I'm sure the Republican base has good reasons to forego her. Not really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, Sardaukar said: Pity that Republicans are so into Trump. I think Nikki Haley would wipe floor with Biden. Trump is another thing, since he is so hated (and for some good reasons). I tend to agree, but it is important to note that there is a percentage of the Trump faithful that would simply stay home if he were not nominated and there is probably also a small percentage that would never vote for a woman with an Indian immigrant background. So while Haley would get far more independent voters, she would probably erode the base. That said, Haley would also like depress Democratic turnout as well, so she might easily defeat Biden as you say. It’ is hard to predict all the moving parts of the voting base, though certainly Haley polls far better than Trump in a theoretic general election against Biden. But as I noted about a year ago, you cannot have a serious discussion about electability among your voting base if they simply do not believe they ever lost. If you compare the forensics of the Dems in 2016 to the GOP in 2020, one focused on “electability” in the next cycle and the other focused on how they really won all along and that the riot that they had was a peaceful protest of a stolen election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, rmgill said: Why? Insufficiently diverse. It is the Democratic Party's rules. Their party their rules. Are you a Democrat? If not why worry what they do? I think the Republican Party should do the same. Iowa and New Hampshire have an out sized effect on the nominating process. Together they have less than 2 % of the U.S.'s population. And yet all of the Republicans have dropped out but two ...... after less than 2% of the population has voted. ......... after less than 2 % of the population has voted Trump is saying it is over and Haley should drop out. I'm not a big fan of Haley, I would have preferred DeSantis. But who is Trump to tell any one to get out...... after less than 2 % of the population has voted. On a related note Trump is saying that any donors that continue to support Haley will not be invited to his house for play dates and will have their birthday cancelled. https://www.axios.com/2024/01/25/trump-nikki-haley-donors-threat https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4428148-trump-warns-haley-donors-will-be-permanently-barred-maga-camp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 (edited) 18 minutes ago, 17thfabn said: On a related note Trump is saying that any donors that continue to support Haley will not be invited to his house for play dates and will have their birthday cancelled. Could just be empty threats to appease his base and look tough. Many of Haley's supporters are folks who will either sit home in Nov or vote for Biden... so it's possible many of the big donors won't even jump on the Trump train. After Trump's petty victory speech in NH some outlets were reporting it could be Haley's donors that are keeping her going because so many were pissed off at what Trump had to say. Edited January 25 by Skywalkre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold Jones Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Someone at the RNC leaked a draft resolution to declare Trump the presumptive nominee. The article is probably paywalled but it contains a pdf of the proposed resolution. https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/dispatch-politics/rnc-moving-to-declare-trump-its-presumptive-nominee/ Quote The draft resolution, obtained by The Dispatch Thursday morning, was proposed by David Bossie, an RNC committeeman from Maryland and close Trump ally. His effort to put the national party on a general election footing behind Trump follows RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel saying after the former president defeated Haley in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary that it was time for Republicans to unite behind the frontrunner and focus on defeating President Joe Biden. “RESOLVED that the Republican National Committee hereby declares President Trump as our presumptive 2024 nominee for the office of President of the United States and from this moment forward moves into full general election mode welcoming supporters of all candidates as valued members of Team Trump 2024,” reads a key portion of the draft resolution... passage of this resolution, possibly next week at the RNC winter meeting in Las Vegas, could begin a preemptive process of the national party working with the former president as if he had already done so. And under RNC rules, that is permissible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Skywalkre said: Could just be empty threats to appease his base and look tough. Many of Haley's supporters are folks who will either sit home in Nov or vote for Biden... so it's possible many of the big donors won't even jump on the Trump train. After Trump's petty victory speech in NH some outlets were reporting it could be Haley's donors that are keeping her going because so many were pissed off at what Trump had to say. I think Haley just wants to be in enough primaries to make absolutely sure that if Trump dies, she and not Tiny D is the heir apparent. Edited January 25 by Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, Harold Jones said: Someone at the RNC leaked a draft resolution to declare Trump the presumptive nominee. The article is probably paywalled but it contains a pdf of the proposed resolution. https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/dispatch-politics/rnc-moving-to-declare-trump-its-presumptive-nominee/ I don’t understand the Trump/MAGA obsession with getting Haley to drop out. It is clear she will lose catastrophically by or on Super Tuesday; they could just not be sore winners and wait her out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 I hope she stays in it as long as possible if that leak is accurate. It's going to be comedy gold to see the MAGA crowd that's been condemning the Ds for how they handled '16 explain away that leak coupled to all the primaries being moved to winner-take-all. 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, Josh said: I think Haley just wants to be in enough primaries to make absolutely sure that if Trump dies, she and not Tiny D is the heir apparent. If Trump were to die or stroke out I don't think Haley would be just given the nomination. I think there would be a huge fight between her supporters and most likely DeSantis supporters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold Jones Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 24 minutes ago, Josh said: I don’t understand the Trump/MAGA obsession with getting Haley to drop out. It is clear she will lose catastrophically by or on Super Tuesday; they could just not be sore winners and wait her out. I think that by declaring Trump the presumptive nominee it allows the RNC to start funneling support to him. Also, given his weakness with independents the RNC needs to try to unify the party as much as possible, having Haley out there contesting primaries and offering an alternative hurts that goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 17 minutes ago, 17thfabn said: If Trump were to die or stroke out I don't think Haley would be just given the nomination. I think there would be a huge fight between her supporters and most likely DeSantis supporters. It's an interesting question. I don't see him having medical issues... but what if a trial or two finish up, he's convicted, and the polls show him unlikely to win? Do the Rs make a move to get someone else in there? If so... who? Would the base even allow it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 29 minutes ago, Skywalkre said: I hope she stays in it as long as possible if that leak is accurate. It's going to be comedy gold to see the MAGA crowd that's been condemning the Ds for how they handled '16 explain away that leak coupled to all the primaries being moved to winner-take-all. 🤣 Which leak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 The one Harold pointed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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