U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!

[Josh]

12 hours ago, Harold Jones said:

Trump has lots of enthusiastic supporters and a bunch who will vote for whoever has an R after their name.  The enthusiasts turned out for the caucuses.  Trump will be the nominee and he will handily win in the red states.  Given his quasi incumbent status there's no pool of voters who are just now hearing about him or wondering how he will govern. The same goes for Biden, as the incumbent he may have alienated parts of the Democrat coalition but they are still more likely to pull the lever for him than they are for anyone else. The swing states will be where the election is decided and the independents will be the deciders.  I think anyone who thinks that there are undecided persuadable voters is fooling himself. These two are both known quantities and everyone has already decided which one they are going to vote for or against.

Oh no doubt; it will still be a swing state election. But some of the numbers out of Iowa aren’t great if you look under the hood. Half the GOP voters who showed up specifically didn’t pick Trump. Exit polls indicated there was double digit support for Biden among those who voted for Haley if Trump is nominated instead (which obviously is happening). And turnout was low. That is not to say Trump is in trouble or that those theoretical questions typically return especially accurate numbers, but I’m putting the 51% win in context: it was historic for a non incumbent, but since we have not had a president lose and run again in a century, Trump is not at all representative of a non incumbent. And there are some worrying numbers in that 49% that didn’t vote for him, including the number 49.

Edited January 24, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

7 hours ago, rmgill said:

Now. Skywalkre, talk about Biden's performance in the primary. 

In what primary?

[Josh]

5 hours ago, rmgill said:

None of the votes matter for the DNC pick. It's all up to the super delegates in the Party. Remember it's 'Our Democracy'. Which is to say, the democracy of the DNC oligarchs. 

Even you know that’s not true. The supers can push things more the establishment way but the process is hardly undemocratic. The GOP system of selection is equally flawed in that it is largely winner take all; that’s exactly how Trump floated to the top in 2016 despite not being at all popular at the time. Moreover super delegates won’t matter an iota with an incumbent and your original question, how does Joe do in the first primary, has nothing to do with sups since that is a convention thing, not a state by state thing.

But to answer your question, we can look at the first primary for Joe in Carolina, or possibly even the write in campaign in New Hampshire.

[Josh]

3 hours ago, rmgill said:

Would have won and DID win are two different things. 

The point is though the DNC isn't even running Biden in New Hampshire (He's a write in). Didn't do the Iowa Caucus. There's some speculation that they're side stepping the entire process of the primaries and then will substitute someone else for Biden when they decide it's time. Likely Michelle Obama. 
 

There is an internal battle amongst the DNC and NH Dems as to where the first primary should be, and NH fucked around and found out. There is a Dem Iowa caucus, but it isn’t until Super Tuesday. None of that has anything to do with Biden backing out, since it is too late for anyone to get on the ballots in most states. So your post above is coming from a place of ignorance in the selection process and watching too many conspiracy fueled right wing media outlets. Biden is the candidate unless he drops out for health reasons or drops dead, and if that happens the Dem convention almost certainly picks Kamala.

Edited January 23, 2024 by Josh

[17thfabn]

15 minutes ago, Josh said:

Even you know that’s not true. The supers can push things more the establishment way but the process is hardly undemocratic. The GOP system of selection is equally flawed in that it is largely winner take all; that’s exactly how Trump floated to the top in 2016 despite not being at all popular at the time.

The Republican Primary / caucus system is also flawed in that it givew out sized influence to Iowa and New Hampshire. Two states that do not come close to being demographically  representative of the U.S. general population.

 

[Josh]

3 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

The Republican Primary / caucus system is also flawed in that it givew out sized influence to Iowa and New Hampshire. Two states that do not come close to being demographically  representative of the U.S. general population.

 

Well to be fair that was both parties until recently, and I think the importance of those states is something the media over hypes more than the parties. Traditionally neither has an especially good track record of picking winners.

[17thfabn]

10 minutes ago, Josh said:

Biden is the candidate unless he drops out for health reasons or drops dead, and if that happens the Dem convention almost certainly picks Kamala.

I am curious what the process is for both parties if their candidate has an issue? Adding the possibility that either is incapacitated by say a stroke or in a comma? 

Is there a mechanism to remove a candidate who is disabled and can't give consent to take them-self of the ballot?

[Tim Sielbeck]

16 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

Two states that do not come close to being demographically  representative of the U.S. general population.

 

Then you don't understand why we have the electoral college.

[Josh]

36 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

I am curious what the process is for both parties if their candidate has an issue? Adding the possibility that either is incapacitated by say a stroke or in a comma? 

Is there a mechanism to remove a candidate who is disabled and can't give consent to take them-self of the ballot?

It’s a complicated question that depends on which party and when, but I actually recently stumbled on a good summary of such. Basically the party establishment would get to go with whatever it felt like at their respective conventions, which was actually how both parties selected their candidates regardless of the voting before 1972. But for specifics:

https://www.voanews.com/amp/what-would-happen-in-us-election-if-trump-or-biden-dropped-out-/7444855.html

 

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Tim Sielbeck said:

Then you don't understand why we have the electoral college.

I am not convinced you do either, since it has nothing to do with the presidential primaries. There was no two party system with a series of state by state votes when the EC was created, so I’m not sure why you are linking the two?

Edited January 24, 2024 by Josh

[17thfabn]

43 minutes ago, Tim Sielbeck said:

Then you don't understand why we have the electoral college.

 I took civics in grade school. I had a good understanding then and now.

I understand product testing. You wouldn't do product testing in an area that is not a good cross section of the country for a product that is to be sold nation wide.

The maple syrup sundae sold like crazy in New Hampshire. Why is it doing so poorly nation wide?

It doesn't really matter in this election cycle. It could in the future.

[17thfabn]

27 minutes ago, Josh said:

Basically the party establishment would get to go with whatever it felt like at their respective conventions, which was actually how both parties selected their candidates regardless of the voting before 1972. But for specifics:

https://www.voanews.com/amp/what-would-happen-in-us-election-if-trump-or-biden-dropped-out-/7444855.html

It would be a dream come true for the journalists. They always long for a return of the smoke filled room. 

President Marianne Williams has a nice ring to it! And it could usher in the Age of Aquarius. 

Edited January 24, 2024 by 17thfabn

[Skywalkre]

12 hours ago, Harold Jones said:

Trump has lots of enthusiastic supporters and a bunch who will vote for whoever has an R after their name.  The enthusiasts turned out for the caucuses.  Trump will be the nominee and he will handily win in the red states.  Given his quasi incumbent status there's no pool of voters who are just now hearing about him or wondering how he will govern. The same goes for Biden, as the incumbent he may have alienated parts of the Democrat coalition but they are still more likely to pull the lever for him than they are for anyone else. The swing states will be where the election is decided and the independents will be the deciders.  I think anyone who thinks that there are undecided persuadable voters is fooling himself. These two are both known quantities and everyone has already decided which one they are going to vote for or against.

Two points to consider.

First, regarding the bolded bit, if that's all there was for the enthusiasts (~7.5% of registered voters considering he got only half the vote) that does not bode well for Trump and actually lends some credence to the Zeihan theory of what will come to pass this Nov.

Second, there's polling showing that if Trump is convicted before the election he could lose several % points in the polls (a big reason why I think Trump's legal tactics are all about delaying so nothing is finished before the election).  That at least seems to imply some supporters are willing to change their minds.  On top of that we have those who have simply buried their head in the sand (as evidenced by what some have said here on TN) regarding the various indictments.  Is he really a known quantity when folks refuse to even look at allegations (which leads to all sorts of troubling notions of folks making this decision with blinders on).

[Skywalkre]

6 hours ago, rmgill said:

The point is though the DNC isn't even running Biden in New Hampshire (He's a write in). Didn't do the Iowa Caucus. There's some speculation that they're side stepping the entire process of the primaries and then will substitute someone else for Biden when they decide it's time. Likely Michelle Obama.

Oh puh-lease... not this garbage again.  Some of y'all need to stop drinking the kool-aid from these far right websites that masquerade as 'news' outlets.  There is no credible evidence to believe the Ds are going to pull such a maneuver.  This is reminiscent of a lot of ridiculous claims were made back when Biden took office in this thread here on TN.  None of that shit remotely came to pass and yet you all are still passing it as a possibility.  Get.  A.  Grip.  🙄

PS - Also bookmarking this to bring back before the election.  This is comedy gold.

[Josh]

Trump beats Haley 54 to 45, about where the polls called it. She swears she will stay in until Super Tuesday, but I think at this point all she can do is ensure she’s the #2 slot in case Trump dies. She will do a few more states then suspend.

[Skywalkre]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

Exit polls indicated there was double digit support for Biden among those who voted for Haley if were Trump to be nominated instead (which obviously is happening).

I saw that, too.  It's not just that these folks said they wouldn't vote for Trump... but they'd actually vote for Biden if Trump wins the nomination.  Losing 10-15% of your party to the other side is rather significant.

Couple that to what kind of turnout will we get.  Initial indications for NH's primary was 'record turnout'... but as the evening has gone on they've been downgrading that to just 'good'.  In the US a high turnout election is a paltry 67% (2020).  Back in the 90s we saw turnouts in POTUS elections in the low 50s.  If we get a more traditional 'meh' turnout, with Trump's base not being as enthusiastic as some though, coupled to upwards of 15% of Rs voting for Biden...  With that being said it's not like Biden's camp is rolling in enthusiasm, either.  Without abortion on the ballot in some states will those voters care, in a few states he barely won in '20 with large ME immigrant populations said populations are pissed at him over his handling of Gaza.

Makes me wonder if we're racing to the bottom with an election where no one wants to turn out and few do.

[Skywalkre]

2 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

The Republican Primary / caucus system is also flawed in that it givew out sized influence to Iowa and New Hampshire. Two states that do not come close to being demographically  representative of the U.S. general population.

 

It's also flawed because it was changed (I believe at Trump's request) to basically be winner take all.  As such, even if Haley held in at just a few points behind Trump in future primaries, he'd be getting all the delegates.  Amusing for folks to fault the Ds for their system (which was fucked up but changed after what happened in '16) when the Rs took a step backward with their own.

[Josh]

38 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

I saw that, too.  It's not just that these folks said they wouldn't vote for Trump... but they'd actually vote for Biden if Trump wins the nomination.  Losing 10-15% of your party to the other side is rather significant.

Couple that to what kind of turnout will we get.  Initial indications for NH's primary was 'record turnout'... but as the evening has gone on they've been downgrading that to just 'good'.  In the US a high turnout election is a paltry 67% (2020).  Back in the 90s we saw turnouts in POTUS elections in the low 50s.  If we get a more traditional 'meh' turnout, with Trump's base not being as enthusiastic as some though, coupled to upwards of 15% of Rs voting for Biden...  With that being said it's not like Biden's camp is rolling in enthusiasm, either.  Without abortion on the ballot in some states will those voters care, in a few states he barely won in '20 with large ME immigrant populations said populations are pissed at him over his handling of Gaza.

Makes me wonder if we're racing to the bottom with an election where no one wants to turn out and few do.

as much as Biden generates no enthusiasm for the Democratic Party, Trump absolutely does. More over the Dobbs decision does as well. Very enthusiastic voter turnout is essential to a Trump election, given that he tends to turn off independent voters more than moderate Rs (Haley).

I question the accuracy of polls that have Trump ahead in swing states (though I think more recent polling has it within margin of error). I wonder if a lot of that isn’t just a vent of frustration at Biden’s age and Israel policies. Because if that were the case, clearly voting for Trump solves neither of those concerns.

I suspect that now that it is undeniably Trump vs Biden, the polls begin to bend back towards Biden as the lesser of two evils. And I think Dem turnout is still at 2020 levels or greater, because it was never about supporting Biden, it was about stopping Trump. Add Dobbs to that, and the fact that there could easily be a SCOTUS pick in four years, and I could almost see Zheihans scenario. Except that I still think the ceiling for either side is ~310. The popular vote I expect to be devastating.

Edited January 24, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

10 hours ago, rmgill said:

Now. Skywalkre, talk about Biden's performance in the primary. 

Circling back to this question, while the write ins have not all been processed, the sheer number of them (60% unprocessed, 9% for Joe) seems to indicate that Biden did better in NH than Trump despite writing the state off.

[Skywalkre]

14 minutes ago, Josh said:

as much as Biden generates no enthusiasm for the Democratic Party, Trump absolutely does. More over the Dobbs decision does as well. Very enthusiastic voter turnout is essential to a Trump election, given that he tends to turn off independent voters more than moderate Rs (Haley).

I'm still curious how the Dobbs decision will impact the general election this year in areas where there's no local abortion ballot measures in play.  I remember hearing criticisms this past Nov from folks arguing abortion ballot measures should have been pushed off til this year so that the turnout would help Ds (especially Biden) across the board.  Again, this is a country that even in a hotly contested, passionate, high-turnout election like back in '20... 1/3 of us still sit home and don't take part.

21 minutes ago, Josh said:

I question the accuracy of polls that have Trump ahead in swing states (though I think more recent polling has it within margin of error). I wonder if a lot of that isn’t just a vent of frustration at Biden’s age and Israel policies. Because if that were the case, clearly voting for Trump solves neither of those concerns.

It's definite venting against Biden but not because of Israel.  Who was that Clinton advisor who summed up all elections so succinctly - "it's about the economy, stupid"?  THAT is what's killing Biden right now.  You have a dwindling middle class, wages haven't kept up, inflation has been brutal, and the Fed has been more concerned with avoiding a recession thus bringing it down slowly.  An interview I saw with a Fed official said their models aren't predicting inflation to return to normal levels til 2025.  Ugh... 

Your average, everyday American is struggling... and in typical US political fashion they're taking it out on the sitting POTUS even if said POTUS doesn't have any responsibility for it (which is true... Biden has nothing to do with our current inflation woes... though you could argue he and Rs in Congress could be doing far more to address it).

What's made this worse is I've seen far too many incidents of Biden sympathetic journos and pundits in the last few months making comments to the effect of "why don't these stupid peons realize how GOOD the economy is!?"  Nothing is going to piss off the voters more than being out of touch and calling them idiots when they have every right to be frustrated and are barely getting by. 

This is another reason why I question if we'll get super low turnout... YES folks don't like Trump, but they also hate where they're at and Biden hasn't done much to help them (neither have Rs in Congress... one of them was recently on one of those rising far Right cable channels and said "our party has nothing to run on" and he's right... but voters hold POTUS more responsible than they do Congress for better or worse).

[Tim Sielbeck]

2 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

I understand product testing. You wouldn't do product testing in an area that is not a good cross section of the country for a product that is to be sold nation wide.

It isn't about product testing, it's about having a broad appeal because no one state is representative of a "cross section" of America.

I'd be happier if all primaries occurred on the same day.

[R011]

8 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

Super delgates won't matter in 2024 for the Democrats. 

In 2016 Mrs. Clinton would have won even without the super delagates.

 

I think Trump will generate al the enthusiasm the Democrats could want.

[rmgill]

 

[Josh]

2 hours ago, rmgill said:

 

Yes, that is the case. But Michelle would actually have to *want* to run. And if she did, why the Rube Goldbergian bait and switch with Biden? Michelle would walk all over Trump; there would be no reason to hide it. Just wackjob conspiracy bullshit, IMO. Biden is the nominee unless he dies; Trump same-same. If a death occurs both conventions have mechanisms for selecting someone else, and Kamala would be the almost certain choice for the DNC. The GOP would probably front Haley, which IMO would be much more game changing than even a Michelle substitution.

Edited January 24, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

3 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

I'm still curious how the Dobbs decision will impact the general election this year in areas where there's no local abortion ballot measures in play.  I remember hearing criticisms this past Nov from folks arguing abortion ballot measures should have been pushed off til this year so that the turnout would help Ds (especially Biden) across the board.  Again, this is a country that even in a hotly contested, passionate, high-turnout election like back in '20... 1/3 of us still sit home and don't take part.

The fact that Dobbs seemed to still influence the 2023 elections heavily I think means Dobbs isn’t a thing that goes away ever. IMO there is a 1-3% of the voters who switch sides or vote for the first time because of it. The individual referendums might pull out more voters than years that don’t have one, but IMO the kind of person who feels strongly on that issue does not just assume that thier state level laws shield them from some kind of shady federal maneuver by the GOP, and Trump *and* all the people who helped his 2020 steal effort or tried to bury it and the riot he incited have proven they are not above shady federal actions. Anyone who showed up for an off-off year election in 2023 isn’t skipping the Trump election of 2024.