U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!

[Josh]

6 hours ago, rmgill said:

What, democrats aren’t similarly enthusiastic for Biden? I can’t understand why? 

He’s a shitty candidate, just like Trump. IMO the better question is why Trump induces a cult despite being a horrible candidate rather than why Biden does not inspire anyone. More over, come election time, Trump has historically raised democrat enthusiasm as much as Republican enthusiasm, sometimes when he’s not on the ballot.

 

I think a lot of Republicans don’t realize that Trump is destroying their brand permanently for younger voters. They will not turn conservative in their older age if conservatism is defined as narcissistic white Christian nationalism. If Trump loses, the GOP probably won’t win the Whitehouse again in my lifetime. That it has at all in the last two decades is almost purely due to the EC, and that is increasingly becoming not enough to hold back the tidal wave of GOP disapproval, even if the Democratic Party itself is also incredibly flawed.

[rmgill]

He's got better admin ability than Biden. Biden is great as a puppet. I don't think he's cogent enough to run a birthday party. Trump can at least command a helm so to speak. His contentiousness to folks on his own side is his biggest fault. 

[17thfabn]

55 minutes ago, rmgill said:

His contentiousness to folks on his own side is his biggest fault. 

No, his biggest fault as a politician is he picks unnecessary fights that alienate those in the middle politically. Alienating those who will be the deciding factor in an election is a horrible political strategy. He may pull it off only because Biden is so unpopular.

 

[rmgill]

And he has a relatively good record to run on vs Biden. 

 

[seahawk]

Trump is not part of the Deep State, that makes him the only option.

[Josh]

Holy shit, DeSantis dropped out! Did not see that coming at all.

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

[Harold Jones]

Him dropping out didn't surprise me much, the immediate embrace of Trump did.

[urbanoid]

30 minutes ago, Harold Jones said:

Him dropping out didn't surprise me much, the immediate embrace of Trump did.

'Trumpism' in GOP won't necessarily end with Trump's potential second term, RDS is young and can try again in 2028 or later.

[Der Zeitgeist]

[Josh]

26 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

'Trumpism' in GOP won't necessarily end with Trump's potential second term, RDS is young and can try again in 2028 or later.

I am not convinced Trumpism survives Trump as a competitive movement. MAGAism does not seem to coalesce around anyone else to the same degree. I’m sure others try to claim the mantle and there is no shortage of supporters already in Congress, but I think presidential candidates are always going to be a hard sell in primaries (especially if Trump loses again) and non starters in general elections.

[Josh]

10 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Hah!

[urbanoid]

25 minutes ago, Josh said:

I am not convinced Trumpism survives Trump as a competitive movement. MAGAism does not seem to coalesce around anyone else to the same degree. I’m sure others try to claim the mantle and there is no shortage of supporters already in Congress, but I think presidential candidates are always going to be a hard sell in primaries (especially if Trump loses again) and non starters in general elections.

I think I might not have been clear enough. 'Trumpism' with the central figure of 'God Emperor Trump' will wither away sooner or later, the grievances of the significant part of the population that made Trumpism possible in the first place are not going away.

[Strannik]

34 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

I think I might not have been clear enough. 'Trumpism' with the central figure of 'God Emperor Trump' will wither away sooner or later, the grievances of the significant part of the population that made Trumpism possible in the first place are not going away.

That's what happens when a maverick (or a person impersonating one like Obama for the left) appears at the scene.  Surprised by the surprised ones.

Edited January 22, 2024 by Strannik

[Skywalkre]

So... hold on.  Are folks actually looking at the Iowa Caucus results and thinking it was some amazing win for Trump?

First, he under-performed compared to what the polls were saying.  Add to this the news we were hearing for weeks stating he had the most energetic and enthusiastic base... that didn't materialize.

Second, that lack of supposed enthusiastic base was highlighted by the fact you had around 15% turnout, the worst in over two decades.  Yes, it was cold... but there were also NFL playoffs on.  As someone from the midwest with family across the region I'd wager the games had more to do than the cold (it's not like they caucus OUTSIDE...).  Does anyone remember that NYT graphic from '16 which showed less than 9% of eligible voters were responsible for picking Trump and Clinton?  Looks like we're on par for another repeat of that.

Over in the prediction thread someone mentioned how Zeihan has predicted a Biden blowout in Nov.  I went back to look at his vids explaining why he thinks that will be the case (and he meant an EC blowout, not a popular vote blowout).  He basically had two points to his argument. 

The first is that both political parties are comprised of various camps and while Trump has the unwavering loyalty of 50-60% of Rs... he's pissed off or alienated other camps that would rather sit home than vote for him.  Exit polling from Iowa seemed to support this to a degree... Rs with college degrees or who cared deeply about foreign policy were overwhelmingly Haley.

The second point to his argument was that back in '22 Independents went overwhelmingly for Ds at a rate higher than normal and for one simple reason - protecting democracy.  That theme will be pushed by the Ds yet again this Nov (Biden's already had a lot to say about this already).

So, I'm curious if we'll be able to see hints of this this primary season.  I'm curious what SC will look like for turnout and how Trump does compared to the polls.  If turnout is low yet again and he underperforms compared to the polls yet again... maybe Zeihan has a point after all.

 

[Skywalkre]

Forgot to mention... the one troubling thing I saw out of Iowa was some polling the night of.

The first question regarded Biden's legitimacy as POTUS.  70% of Rs thought he was illegitimate. 

The second question was along the lines of if Trump was convicted would that impact folks decision to support him.  Again about 70% of Rs said a conviction wouldn't sway their support and had no impact on their view of him.

Just... wow.

[Josh]

If you think of Trump as an incumbent rather than a new candidate, then his numbers seem less impressive. And he is an incumbent in two key ways: he was previously president, with more name recognition than anyone on earth, and two thirds of his party still thinks he won 2020. In that context, winning only half of your own party turns from impressive to almost a red flag.
 

That said, while I think the popular vote will be a blowout, I cannot see how the EC would. It comes down to the same swing states which give each candidate a 310 ceiling, acquired the last two elections by a 100,000 voters or less. The only way I see a blowout happening is if Trump is convicted. I think that closes the door on him with a couple percentage points of GOP and several more at least of independents, and that could move states we traditionally think of as red.

Edited January 23, 2024 by Josh

[Harold Jones]

7 hours ago, Josh said:

If you think of Trump as an incumbent rather than a new candidate, then his numbers seem less impressive. And he is an incumbent in two key ways: he was previously president, with more name recognition than anyone on earth, and two thirds of his party still thinks he won 2020. In that context, winning only half of your own party turns from impressive to almost a red flag.

Trump has lots of enthusiastic supporters and a bunch who will vote for whoever has an R after their name.  The enthusiasts turned out for the caucuses.  Trump will be the nominee and he will handily win in the red states.  Given his quasi incumbent status there's no pool of voters who are just now hearing about him or wondering how he will govern. The same goes for Biden, as the incumbent he may have alienated parts of the Democrat coalition but they are still more likely to pull the lever for him than they are for anyone else. The swing states will be where the election is decided and the independents will be the deciders.  I think anyone who thinks that there are undecided persuadable voters is fooling himself. These two are both known quantities and everyone has already decided which one they are going to vote for or against.

[rmgill]

Now. Skywalkre, talk about Biden's performance in the primary. 

[Harold Jones]

Difficult since the Democrats have made South Carolina the first official primary.  Iowa Dems had a non-binding preference vote/caucus and in New Hampshire Biden isn't on the ballot because the Democrats will not recognize the results.  That said I expect that there is just as much enthusiasm for Biden as there was for Trump so not much. 

[rmgill]

None of the votes matter for the DNC pick. It's all up to the super delegates in the Party. Remember it's 'Our Democracy'. Which is to say, the democracy of the DNC oligarchs. 

[17thfabn]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

None of the votes matter for the DNC pick. It's all up to the super delegates in the Party. RememInber it's 'Our Democracy'. Which is to say, the democracy of the DNC oligarchs. 

Super delgates won't matter in 2024 for the Democrats. 

In 2016 Mrs. Clinton would have won even without the super delagates.

 

[17thfabn]

1 hour ago, Harold Jones said:

That said I expect that there is just as much enthusiasm for Biden as there was for Trump so not much. 

There is a lot more enthusiasm for Trump. Among the 50% or so of the Republicans who love him there is a tremendous amount of enthusiasm.

I don't think Biden every had that kind of devotion.  Obama did amoung his true believers. Mrs. Clinton did, but at a much lower level than Obama. 

[rmgill]

38 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

Super delgates won't matter in 2024 for the Democrats. 

In 2016 Mrs. Clinton would have won even without the super delagates.

 

Would have won and DID win are two different things. 

The point is though the DNC isn't even running Biden in New Hampshire (He's a write in). Didn't do the Iowa Caucus. There's some speculation that they're side stepping the entire process of the primaries and then will substitute someone else for Biden when they decide it's time. Likely Michelle Obama. 
 

[Harold Jones]

He didn't do the Iowa Caucus because it hasn't happened yet.  Per the party website https://iowademocrats.org/caucus/

Quote

 

Our new Iowa Democratic Caucuses will consist of two parts:

One part will be the mail-in expression of Presidential preference. Iowa Democrats will be able to request a presidential preference card through the mail or online. Please use the links above. The last day to request a preference card is February 19, 2024.

The other part will be our in-person precinct caucuses which will be held in person on January 15, 2024 at 7:00 p.m. The in-person precinct caucuses are when we will conduct traditional party business. We will elect unbound delegates and alternate delegates to county conventions, elect county central committee members and discuss platform resolutions that can be shared at county conventions. No Presidential preference will be taken at the in-person precinct caucuses. The results of the mail-in Presidential preference will be released on March 5, 2024.