U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!

[Josh]

25 minutes ago, Strannik said:

You'll need to unpack this.

I feel like you are assuming/suggesting that tax cuts (which Rs are generally fond of) will be a game changer.  They won't  be, can't be sustained in the current fiscal climate without higher inflation and I never implied that in my previous post.

I agree. All I’m saying is, even for those who believe in such things, that kind of policy just won’t be popular in the current social/political climate. Billionaires are reviled just for being billionaires. Bernie was the other side of the Trump populist coin, and I suspect there is a lot more overlap of people who would have voted for both than any Republicans wants to admit.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Josh

[Strannik]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

I agree. All I’m saying is, even for those who believe in such things, that kind of policy just won’t be popular in the current social/political climate. Billionaires are reviled just for being billionaires. Bernie was the other side of the Trump populist coin, and I suspect there is a lot more overlap of people who would have voted for both than any Republicans wants to admit.

Right, so my previous point that calamities (economic recession, but more likely if they continue to print just consustent high inflation with very modest growth and possible war(s)) could drastically change US political landscape.  From the emergence of multiple parties to a fashism lite under Trump.

[Strannik]

Still think that Biden is the one who decides whether he runs or not?

[Skywalkre]

Guess it's fitting that no one has posted yet that Scott withdrew from the race.  It's another example of how his campaign was just never able to gain any serious traction.  A big part of that had to be that he was the most positive candidate in the R field with a message that seemed unlikely to gain traction with a MAGA crowd obsessed over perceived victimhood and grievances.

I'd like to think this is one step closer to the Trump opposition unifying behind Haley... but DeSantis is likely not going anywhere anytime soon.  Still, one can hope.

[Josh]

Haley is too close to DeSantis to drop out before Super Tuesday while DeSantis still is polling higher than her nationally (so far). I think there is no way DeSantis' ego lets him drop out until Trump already has the delegates. By Super Tuesday it will be too late in any case, IMO. I'm not sure what Christie is shooting for; his campaign seemed more spite motivated. But he's laid a lot of ground work in New Hampshire and there's no way he drops out before that. God only knows what Vivek is thinking; I think he's only in it to be in the next Trump administration. Random guess he drops out before actual primaries and endorses Trump. Is Hutchison still in? If he dropped out, I didn't notice the announcement, just like the rest of his campaign. Safe to say it doesn't really matter what he does when.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Josh

[Strannik]

Yeah, FWIW I don't think Haley would have a smallest chance(sans Trimp) after what the "everybody should be verified" statement.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, Strannik said:

Yeah, FWIW I don't think Haley would have a smallest chance(sans Trimp) after what the "everybody should be verified" statement.

How is that possibly disqualifying in the Republican primary?

[Mikel2]

On 11/10/2023 at 10:49 PM, Josh said:

However you feel about FDR, people in need dug his fireside chats. I doubt tax cuts are going to resonate in an economic decline regardless of economic theory; the voting tendency will be to each the rich.

Just like today, feelings mattered more than facts. Never mind that FDR's policies eviscerated the economy. 

[Strannik]

10 hours ago, Josh said:

How is that possibly disqualifying in the Republican primary?

Aren't Reps known as staunchly free speech supporters.  And the Haley saga continues with her each published pearl.  Anyway not worth to continue to spend time on her unless you like farcical...

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

Aren't Reps known as staunchly free speech supporters.  And the Haley saga continues with her each published pearl.  Anyway not worth to continue to spend time on her unless you like farcical...

And that's her substantive policy (in addition to more war, more surveillance, more immigration):

"We're going to raise the retirement age to reflect life expectancy. We’re no longer going to do cost of living increases, we’re going to do increases based on inflation.”

Edited November 15, 2023 by Strannik

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

Aren't Reps known as staunchly free speech supporters.  And the Haley saga continues with her each published pearl.  Anyway not worth to continue to spend time on her unless you like farcical...

What Republicans are known for and what they actually do when they have power are two separate things. In any case, I doubt verifying people online is hill anyone is going to die on - it isn’t something I’d expect Haley to seriously Perdue nor is it something I think that any voter would find disqualifying. I think her statement was just bait for voters who don’t trust big tech or social media.

I agree she has no chance while Trump lives, but I think she will do well in New Hampshire, possibility win, and she’ll clean up in NC as well. I think post Super Tuesday she’ll be the second place contender over DeSantis.

[Ivanhoe]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/carney/tim-scott-failed-crusade

If you filter out the anti-Trumpism of the column (and the Examiner staff are ardently anti-Trump), there are some good observations;

Quote

Moderators asked Scott about the Capitol riot Trump instigated on Jan. 6, 2021, with his refusal to accept his electoral defeat. Scott, to his discredit, declined to criticize Trump and pivoted immediately to the “bigger question” of Attorney General Merrick Garland’s weaponization of the Justice Department.

This is not the negative thing the author believes, it indicates that Scott was not going to fall for the debate moderator's attempt to play politics from the podium.

Quote

That’s one reason Scott’s candidacy was salutary. He defined himself as a Christian guided by faith, reminded America that we were founded based on Judeo-Christian values, and made it clear that his own up-from-poverty story depended on the church and faith.

The reality is that Scott didn't woo the Swampers nor the centrists. Due to his skin color he was never going to get good press, heck any press, from the MSM. Which means he needed a yuuge war chest for advertising, which he never got.

 

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/carney/tim-scott-failed-crusade

If you filter out the anti-Trumpism of the column (and the Examiner staff are ardently anti-Trump), there are some good observations;

This is not the negative thing the author believes, it indicates that Scott was not going to fall for the debate moderator's attempt to play politics from the podium.

Who won the 2020 election isn't a political question, or at least it shouldn't be.

2 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

The reality is that Scott didn't woo the Swampers nor the centrists. Due to his skin color he was never going to get good press, heck any press, from the MSM. Which means he needed a yuuge war chest for advertising, which he never got.

 

There were plenty of reasons Scott failed to float to the top of the primary polls. He tried to run on a platform with a positive message while conservative media screams that the sky is falling. It was always going to be an unpopular stance, IMO. I'm not sure why you would even attempt to blame the MSM for his defeat when there is almost no overlap between their viewership and GOP primary voters. As for skin color, quite honestly I doubt that enamored him to GOP primary voters either.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Josh

[Josh]

Haley is really on a tear. She's starting to break off support from DeSantis and pick up donors and endorsements. I think it is likely she overtakes DeSantis in New Hampshire and her home state, though I suspect she gets clobbered in Iowa. Still, I see her eventually moving into second place. Only really relevant if Trump dies, of course, but DeSantis must be pulling his hair out. A year ago he was in front of *Trump* by twenty points; now he is barely leading the kids table of the GOP.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo

ETA: check out this blast from the past (not quite a year ago):

https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2022/12/13/00/53/suffolk-poll-shows-ron-desantis-significantly-outpolling-donald-trump

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Josh

[glenn239]

 I wouldn't want to put the blame for the DeSantis implosion on the shoulders of anyone else save DeSantis himself.  He's just got a kind of....Jeb Bush....vibe to him that surely must make him alergic to the Presidency.

[Markus Becker]

BLM for ... Trump

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/state-black-lives-matter-co-founder-endorses-trump-democratic

 

Interesting times we live in.

 

[17thfabn]

3 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

BLM for ... Trump

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/state-black-lives-matter-co-founder-endorses-trump-democratic

Fisher also said how "the best" rappers "all support" Trump, such as Waka Flocka Flame, Lil Wayne, Kodak Black, Ice Cube and Ye, formerly known as Kanye West. 

• Wow! if Trump has wrapped up the support of Waka Flocka Flame, Kodak Black & Black Lives Matter of Rhode Island, the 2024 presidential race is all but over!

[17thfabn]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

 I wouldn't want to put the blame for the DeSantis implosion on the shoulders of anyone else save DeSantis himself. 

I think it is like 2008  when it was Obama's time or 2016 when it was Secretary  Clinton's year in the Democratic Party.

For what ever reason 2024 is Trump's year in the Republican Party.

Edited November 29, 2023 by 17thfabn

[Josh]

30 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

I think it is like 2008  when it was Obama's time or 2016 when it was Secretary  Clinton's year in the Democratic Party.

For what ever reason 2024 is Trump's year in the Republican Party.

DeSantis was popular after crushing his re-election and being firmly anti shutdown and anti woke. But as a lot of off the record advisors and politicians stated at the beginning of the year, everyone increasingly dislikes him the more you get to know him. There were numerous stories to this effect for the first few months of the year that I dismissed as MSM fantasies. But it seems to be quite true - he lacks the charisma and spontaneity of Trump . On top of that, Conservative media has woven Trumps indictments into a Jesus figure story instead of a criminal one. That ran an already not gifted orator into the ground: sure, Meatball Ron is anti woke, but he’s not getting indicted by The Left so that they don’t come for you. That sealed the deal.

[Strannik]

Haley just got Koch's support.   A bunch of big business, billionaires, super PACs as well.  Says all you need to know what you will be getting with her.

[Josh]

3 hours ago, Strannik said:

Haley just got Koch's support.   A bunch of big business, billionaires, super PACs as well.  Says all you need to know what you will be getting with her.

Yeah, she’ll be supported by narcissistic billionaires instead of being a narcissistic billionaire. Also she won’t have a rap sheet in a year.

[BansheeOne]

11 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

Fisher also said how "the best" rappers "all support" Trump, such as Waka Flocka Flame, Lil Wayne, Kodak Black, Ice Cube and Ye, formerly known as Kanye West. 

• Wow! if Trump has wrapped up the support of Waka Flocka Flame, Kodak Black & Black Lives Matter of Rhode Island, the 2024 presidential race is all but over!

Well we've even had orthodox Marxist-Leninists endorse Trump, at least if they can't have Bernie. Securing the foul-mouthed bling-loving millionaire celebrity vote should come as no surprise then. 😁

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, Josh said:

Yeah, she’ll be commanded supported by narcissistic billionaires instead of being a narcissistic billionaire. Also she won’t have a rap sheet in a year, if she does what she's told.

Fixed it.

Edited November 30, 2023 by glenn239

[Ivanhoe]

Cardi B. posted a mostly incoherent rant on social media, that people are interpreting as a slam against Biden and Democrats in general. One good line she repeated was "We'll be swimming in rats!" referencing budget cuts to waste disposal and public health in NYC due to the budget strains from the illegals. 

 

[17thfabn]

6 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

Cardi B. posted a mostly incoherent rant on social media, that people are interpreting as a slam against Biden and Democrats in general.

If you want well thought out incisive political commentary you should listen to Cardi A.

Word has it that Cardi B was originally Cardi D borderline F, but they thought that was too long.

Edited December 1, 2023 by 17thfabn