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U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!


Skywalkre

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1 hour ago, Ivanhoe said:

Mot importantly, IMHO, he may provoke some widespread conversations on a variety of topics. Now I am not saying his opinion on topics are mostly worthwhile. I figure maybe a third of his positions are rational, one third not rational but understandable, and one third completely cuckoo. 

Simply because of who he is, he'll get press coverage, which means some voters may be provoked into thinking rather than just pulling the lever they always pull.

 

Some voters might be into believing bullshit the same way some voters might be into believing things Gwenyth Paltrow sells. But it will be a small number that likely cuts both ways a bit. No Labels might do some real damage to Biden.

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On 10/28/2023 at 1:46 PM, Josh said:

Pence tapped out.

HIs campaign had been broke for weeks.  Apparently had to loan his own money to his campaign to keep it afloat.  Not shedding any tears over his departure but do have to give him some credit for standing his ground and defending his own actions on the 6th of Jan.  Just an incredible mark of shame how most of the R party views him as a traitor over what happened that day.

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1 hour ago, Josh said:

Niki is now neck and neck with meatball Ron in Iowa. IMO, Haley is closest thing to competition Trump has now and the GOPs best chance, perhaps easy chance, at winning the general.

Huh... look at that.  Remarkable for the ground she's gained but still ultimately irrelevant considering Trump has a 27-point lead on her and DeSantis.

Honestly... I think her only strategy is to stick in the race til the very end, spend wisely so she can, and hope a conviction pops up before the general election that forces Trump out.

ETA - Looking closer at those latest poll numbers... if everyone below her dropped out it's likely voters for 4/5 of those candidates would swing behind her... giving her 31% to Trump's 43%.  That's assuming DeSantis sticks in the race (if he left I imagine almost all his votes go to Trump).  That's not a... terrible place to be in considering it's so early.

The problem she'll face is the mechanics of the R primary system.  My understanding is it's a winner-take-all setup and Trump is still on course to win probably every one of the opening races.  IF a conviction comes before the primaries are over (a big IF from how things are looking) I don't see how Haley has a chance to grab votes and actually win in the actual primary contests and then early enough to bypass Trump's lead from all the early contests.

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25 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

ETA - Looking closer at those latest poll numbers... if everyone below her dropped out it's likely voters for 4/5 of those candidates would swing behind her... giving her 31% to Trump's 43%. 

That's assuming DeSantis sticks in the race (if he left I imagine almost all his votes go to Trump). 

I don't think Trump is any ones second choice in the Republican Primary. You either love him and your on the Trump Train, or your less than thrilled with him and want some one else as the Republican nominee. 

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19 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

I don't think Trump is any ones second choice in the Republican Primary. You either love him and your on the Trump Train, or your less than thrilled with him and want some one else as the Republican nominee. 

Later in the report I was watching they said the same poll showed that only 1/4 of DeSantis' current supporters would go to Trump.  If what you're saying is accurate and everyone backing another candidate got behind Haley coupled to 3/4 of DeSantis' supporters... that'd basically put her neck and neck with Trump.

Unfortunately I imagine we get a repeat of '16 and everyone not Trump holds out as long as they can hoping they'll be that one last opponent to get everyone's support... which just ends up solidifying Trump's win in the process.

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5 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Huh... look at that.  Remarkable for the ground she's gained but still ultimately irrelevant considering Trump has a 27-point lead on her and DeSantis.

Honestly... I think her only strategy is to stick in the race til the very end, spend wisely so she can, and hope a conviction pops up before the general election that forces Trump out.

ETA - Looking closer at those latest poll numbers... if everyone below her dropped out it's likely voters for 4/5 of those candidates would swing behind her... giving her 31% to Trump's 43%.  That's assuming DeSantis sticks in the race (if he left I imagine almost all his votes go to Trump).  That's not a... terrible place to be in considering it's so early.

The problem she'll face is the mechanics of the R primary system.  My understanding is it's a winner-take-all setup and Trump is still on course to win probably every one of the opening races.  IF a conviction comes before the primaries are over (a big IF from how things are looking) I don't see how Haley has a chance to grab votes and actually win in the actual primary contests and then early enough to bypass Trump's lead from all the early contests.

I didn’t say it was likely. I was only trying to convey that Desantis really is no longer in n front of the rest of the pack…it’s all the other losers together. Barring trumps death, he still is nominated. I was just thinking that since Desantis is a burnt out husk that never went anywhere, if you were GOP you should go Niki. I personally fear her, because as much as I think Biden is a failed candidate, I think republicans are a failed party. Niki could beat Biden easily.

Although for that to happen, the GOP primary voters would have to elect a brown woman. Pretty confident Desantis actually still does better in Iowa and that nobody holds a candle to Trump there, even though he’s practically ignored the state and ass fucked evangelicals on abortion.

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On 10/30/2023 at 7:32 PM, Skywalkre said:

The problem she'll face is the mechanics of the R primary system.  My understanding is it's a winner-take-all setup and Trump is still on course to win probably every one of the opening races.  IF a conviction comes before the primaries are over (a big IF from how things are looking) I don't see how Haley has a chance to grab votes and actually win in the actual primary contests and then early enough to bypass Trump's lead from all the early contests.

The delegate distribution plan varies state by state IIRC, but I think states are mostly winner take all. That is particularly painful in states with high delegations. The California GOP recently changed its rules to help push things in Trump's direction:

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/california-may-speed-up-donald-trumps-path-to-the-gop-nomination-ecadcc4a

 

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On 10/30/2023 at 8:04 PM, 17thfabn said:

I don't think Trump is any ones second choice in the Republican Primary. You either love him and your on the Trump Train, or your less than thrilled with him and want some one else as the Republican nominee. 

I could easily see many, if not most, DeSantis voters falling back to Trump rather than Haley. DeSantis' is campaigning on his culture war and Trump-without-the-baggage facade, so it falling back to Trump w/ baggage seems natural. I'm sure the vote is split somewhat if DeSantis backs out (IMO he won't until the bitter end), but Haley is clearly in a very different lane in tone and policy compared to Trump/DeSantis.

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57 minutes ago, Josh said:

I could easily see many, if not most, DeSantis voters falling back to Trump rather than Haley. DeSantis' is campaigning on his culture war and

Trump-without-the-baggage facade,

(Bold added) so it falling back to Trump w/ baggage seems natural. I'm sure the vote is split somewhat if DeSantis backs out (IMO he won't until the bitter end), but Haley is clearly in a very different lane in tone and policy compared to Trump/DeSantis.

I think the Trump with out the baggage is the most important part. If it is to most DeSantis voters then they would go to some one other than Trump in the primaries, should DeSantis drop out.

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20 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

I think the Trump with out the baggage is the most important part. If it is to most DeSantis voters then they would go to some one other than Trump in the primaries, should DeSantis drop out.

Well I guess it comes down to which is more important - "Trump" or "without the baggage". There are several other "without the baggage" candidates, so I would guess DeSantis voters would tend more to "Trump", but who knows. Pence's support, to the extent it existed, appears to have been split across a wide swath of the major candidates in near equal amounts of high teens low twenties. That combined with his small share of the electorate in polling likely means nothing changes with his exit.

I don't think we'll see any more candidates tapping out until we get to the third debate. Everyone is still hoping for that mythical moment that lands them on the map. I think once that fails to materialize, we might see Christie and Burgum end their campaigns. Vivek is self funded and Haley and DeSantis I expect to fight at least to Super Tuesday.

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1 hour ago, Josh said:

 don't think we'll see any more candidates tapping out until we get to the third debate. Everyone is still hoping for that mythical moment that lands them on the map. I think once that fails to materialize, we might see Christie and Burgum end their campaigns. Vivek is self funded and Haley and DeSantis I expect to fight at least to Super Tuesday.

I believe Burgum is self funded. I heard an interview with him. He sounds like the American success story. Small town boy made it big in tech. Sounded very sharp. Virtually zero chance of getting any traction.

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Another ho hum debate with what amounts to the kids table in the GOP primary, notable perhaps only for how much animosity a lot of the candidates have for each other. Nothing that moved the needle significantly, IMO.

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2 hours ago, Strannik said:

Well, at least Hailey doesn't fail to miss an opportunity to prove what a standout among pathetic tools she is:

 

Her statement is a little over the top but I doubt she's incorrect that Vivek would be a big enabler for Russia and the PRC.

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1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

I think Nikki Sixx is probably the best "Nikki" available for president.  The GOP group indeed being a Motley Crew.

I think she's the GOPs best shot, and as such I hope she fails. Not that I think she really has a shot at Trump, outside heart failure. She hasn't caught with DeSantis on the national polling level yet but I think a strong showing in New Hampshire or Iowa will KO DeSantis' donor money stream.

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39 minutes ago, Josh said:

Her statement is a little over the top but I doubt she's incorrect that Vivek would be a big enabler for Russia and the PRC.

She is a shill for MIC, Israel and a neocon dream.

As stupid as GOP is (base, not elites) and does it's fascination with rabid neocon imperialism is done for and so she has no value to offer whatsoever.

And while Vivek is a tool, thinking he can apply what apparently is his level business style shenanigans in geopolitics, but clearly not knowing enough to even sound semi realistic is making a fool of himself, her attribution is still yellow scum level.

P.S. if anything she should be switching to Dem, since she would fit nicely with the current dem elites vision.  Maybe that's why you are afraid of her - she's a youngish less stupid and kerfuffle prone Biden on steroids.

Edited by Strannik
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19 minutes ago, Strannik said:

She is a shill for MIC, Israel and a neocon dream.

As stupid as GOP is (base, not elites) and does it's fascination with rabid neocon imperialism is done for and so she has no value to offer whatsoever.

And while Vivek is a tool, thinking he can apply what apparently is his level business style shenanigans in geopolitics, but clearly not knowing enough to even sound semi realistic is making a fool of himself, her attribution is still yellow scum level.

 

As much as you want to dress up US-PRC antagonism up in purely racial terms, the distrust of China has spiked very recently in the US and is due primarily to concrete Chinese foreign policies and (lack of) diplomacy. I'm not particularly a Nikki fan, but I think she is the most competent of the 2024 Republican options. If the GOP wasn't suffering from its Trump induced fever dream of returning the US to an imagined perfection in the 50's, I would probably even vote for her over Biden. But I fear the MAGA run GOP having any power at all at the national level, regardless of who their nominal standard bearer is.

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12 hours ago, Josh said:

As much as you want to dress up US-PRC antagonism up in purely racial terms

...

 I would probably even vote for her over Biden.

1. Do I? You mean those 2.5 times at most when I brought up the US MSM using racial overtones in anti-China campaign.  A total strawman.  China/US competition is real and here to stay - I am a total realist.

No need to bring up bs into this to discuss fundamental issues.

2. Ha-ha, see my updated post(PS) you have just totally validated it.

Edited by Strannik
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1 hour ago, Strannik said:

1. Do I? You mean those 2.5 times at most when I brought up the US MSM using racial overtones in anti-China campaign.  A total strawman.  China/US completion is real and here to stay - I am a total realist.

You specifically used the word "yellow" in your original post and have mentioned it several times before; did you have some other non racial meaning in mind?

"her attribution is still yellow scum level"

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

No need to bring up bs into this to discuss fundamental issues.

2. Ha-ha, see my updated post(PS) you have just totally validated it.

If you think any non MAGA person should leave the Republican party and part with the sinking ship that is the Trumpist absorbed GOP, I'm hardly going to disagree.

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1 hour ago, Josh said:

You specifically used the word "yellow" in your original post and have mentioned it several times before; did you have some other non racial meaning in mind?

"her attribution is still yellow scum level"

If you think any non MAGA person should leave the Republican party and part with the sinking ship that is the Trumpist absorbed GOP, I'm hardly going to disagree.

You don't know what "yellow journalism" is?  This is the meaning - she is using standard cheap tabloid style scummy propaganda gotcha slogans.

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