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U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!


Skywalkre

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11 hours ago, Josh said:

 

 

What has Fox been running recently? Do you think they are tipping the scales in any intentional way with their recent Ramaswamy worship?

IMO, no, Swamy has a bit of a used car salesmen vibe that probably will prevent his strong debate showing turning into a real challenge to Trump.

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So, it's obvious Trump will be the Resp candidate barring the "accident", but on other side I hear some folks want Michelle to be a first choice of a backup plan should Biden loose his marbles completely.

If that would happen, what would be the odds of her winning?  "Left" side would be energized and happy for sure.  What about centrist part of dem electorate and independents?

Edited by Strannik
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17 minutes ago, Strannik said:

So, it's obvious Trump will be the Resp candidate barring the "accident", but on other side I hear some folks want Michelle to be a first choice of a backup plan should Biden loose his marbles completely.

If that would happen, what would be the odds of her winning?  "Left" side would be energized and happy for sure.  What about centrist part of dem electorate and independents?

This poll suggests MO might beat him in primaries.

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8 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Big Mike for president? That would be absolutely hilarious.

Big Mike?

Please  remember we are not all the cool kids who get the veiled references.

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8 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Wait, I thought there are normally no primaries in the party of the president seeking reelection?

The last time a sitting president faced a primary threat was in 1980.  President Carter was challenged by then Governor of California, Jerry Brown.  And seriously challenged by the Lion of the Senate and killer of Mary Jo, Edward "Ted" Kennedy.

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The most enraging thing for me is that I would actually vote for any of the Republican nominees except for Ramaswamey (dumbass tech bro) DeSantis (hitched his wagon to some anti-woke bullshit that most people don't care about) and Trump (obvious reasons). Pence, Haley, Scott and Christie would be fine! They've all got solid creds and backgrounds. 

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Virek's idea about positioning to be able to decouple from China and achieve semiconductor independence is fine but a big problem is he plainly saying that after semiconductor independence he wouldn't care about the PRC annexing Taiwan by force. The PRC is already very big so for Japan and others to balance the PRC, as much leverage as possible is needed. Losing Taiwan is too much cost. If the US wants to remain in providing the central role in security in the Western Pacific, then Taiwan must remain, at minimum, at status que's independent. So prospect of the US giving the PRC the green light post 2028ish would cause major stirs.  

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2 hours ago, Harold Jones said:

The electability thing seems to be the agreed upon attack. Getting a couple of these every 3 or 4 days. 

PXL_20230829_185104244~2.jpg

I think it is a good attack. Because it well may be true.

Many swing voters will not know the specifics, just that Trump has been indicted in four different felony cases. By the time of election day he may well be convicted of at least one.

To the average person who doesn't follow politics try convincing them they should vote for a convicted  felon.

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More specifically, the Georgia case(s) will probably play out over the course of the election even if Trump himself never goes to trial. Given that the GOP governor is not giving Trump the time of day, that press coverage will make winning GA incredibly difficult. If Biden wins GA again, he can afford to lose 3-4 swing states and still win. Only if he loses PA does that number potentially go down to 2. Sans GA, the election is a super uphill battle for trump.

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Watching the pundits at the end of last week talk about the latest polling... it sounds like while Trump's getting more support amongst Rs he's also, very slowly, losing support from Independents.

If Biden wasn't so weak this race likely wouldn't be close.  One poll showed that 80% of Americans think Biden is too old... and breaking that down by political party 75% of Ds still think he is too old!  Was curious how much of this may be because folks are worried that if Biden passes away they'd be stuck with Kamala.  538 had a tracker for her approval rating and it was abysmal as well.

This came up on one of the shows I was watching - what if Biden dropped out?  No one had a rising, popular D candidate that they could name who was in the wings ready to go.  In fact many commented that anyone challenging Kamala would likely cause strife within D ranks for the most idiotic of reasons - how could anyone oppose the first female black candidate?  The Ds really need to move past silly identity politics like that just as much as the Rs need to move past Trump.  If anyone got the best candidate out there, period, the voters would reward them handily.

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The Democrats have done a really fantastic job of gutting their bench. You would have thought that a star or two would have ascended from the Obama administrations but the party's decision to give Hilary her turn and Bernie's insurgency effectively killed off the chance of anyone else becoming prominent.  Beyond Colorado and California I don't know if any of the current Democrat governors would be able to run this cycle if Biden withdrew.  Polis is a competent governor who can pass for something of centerist but he hasn't shown any real interest in the presidency this time around.  Gavin Newsom acts like he wants to be seen as a national figure but I don't think he'd appeal to the middle enough to overcome any hit he'd take for opposing either Harris or Biden openly.  One thing that does strike me as important is that the longer Biden (or his handlers) put off a decision to not run, the worse the position it leaves the Democrats in.

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3 hours ago, Harold Jones said:

One thing that does strike me as important is that the longer Biden (or his handlers) put off a decision to not run, the worse the position it leaves the Democrats in.

There's no doubt he's running again.  This question keeps coming up in large part because the poll numbers have been so strong against him doing so from the very beginning.  Many Ds are nervous at what appears to be a dead heat between him and Trump. 

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7 hours ago, Harold Jones said:

The Democrats have done a really fantastic job of gutting their bench. You would have thought that a star or two would have ascended from the Obama administrations but the party's decision to give Hilary her turn and Bernie's insurgency effectively killed off the chance of anyone else becoming prominent.  Beyond Colorado and California I don't know if any of the current Democrat governors would be able to run this cycle if Biden withdrew.  Polis is a competent governor who can pass for something of centerist but he hasn't shown any real interest in the presidency this time around.  Gavin Newsom acts like he wants to be seen as a national figure but I don't think he'd appeal to the middle enough to overcome any hit he'd take for opposing either Harris or Biden openly.  One thing that does strike me as important is that the longer Biden (or his handlers) put off a decision to not run, the worse the position it leaves the Democrats in.

I don't think there's a major shortage, though  perhaps there isn't a deep bench of potentials from previous administrations. But there are a number of governors besides Newsom that would be better options from less hard blue states - Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Any Beshear, Roy Cooper, Jared Polis. None of these has shown any interest this cycle but they would all be fairly strong candidates. There are a number of Senators that would work as well I think. Newsom hails from the most blue of blue states, so he doesn't strike me as a strong choice (though he clearly is positioning himself as the pop up alternative if there is a sudden drop out). But probably anyone other than Biden would work against Trump, or likely even Desantis. Kamala isn't popular, but she at least eliminates the age factor.

Edited by Josh
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1 hour ago, Josh said:

I don't think there's a major shortage, though  perhaps there isn't a deep bench of potentials from previous administrations. But there are a number of governors besides Newsom that would be better options from less hard blue states - Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Any Beshear, Roy Cooper, Jared Polis. None of these has shown any interest this cycle but they would all be fairly strong candidates. There are a number of Senators that would work as well I think. Newsom hails from the most blue of blue states, so he doesn't strike me as a strong choice (though he clearly is positioning himself as the pop up alternative if there is a sudden drop out). But probably anyone other than Biden would work against Trump, or likely even Desantis. Kamala isn't popular, but she at least eliminates the age factor.

The problem is we're getting late into the season, supposedly.  One interview I saw tonight said it's approaching the limit to be able to even get on the ballot in some places (I'm assuming they meant primary?). 

In other news, Jill Biden tests positive for COVID.  There's going to be a lot of Biden supporters holding their breath over the next few days (he's currently testing negative).

ETA - By getting late they were saying none of these folks are in the process of building a campaign.  It would take weeks to start from scratch and that would supposedly put some up against deadlines.

Edited by Skywalkre
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1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

The problem is we're getting late into the season, supposedly.  One interview I saw tonight said it's approaching the limit to be able to even get on the ballot in some places (I'm assuming they meant primary?). 

In other news, Jill Biden tests positive for COVID.  There's going to be a lot of Biden supporters holding their breath over the next few days (he's currently testing negative).

ETA - By getting late they were saying none of these folks are in the process of building a campaign.  It would take weeks to start from scratch and that would supposedly put some up against deadlines.

I don't consider anyone outside Newsom to be able to mount a serious campaign right now. All I was pointing out was that the idea there was no Democratic bench for presidential candidates wasn't particularly accurate. There might not be a major national name with previous national executive experience, but there's certainly plenty of viable people out there for 2028. Were Biden to drop out, I suspect Newsom makes a bid. But as you say, we are getting close to the point where trying to change out candidates would be difficult.

I don't think anyone is worried about Biden and COVID outside some blow hard right wing sites. He is vaccinated and would get the best care anyone in the world would ever get, and anyone who thinks he isn't in much better physical health than Trump simply isn't being realistic.

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The amazing thing is that Biden and Trump only have a chance if they fight each other. The really amazing thing is that the Republicans seem to be unwilling to nominate someone or anyone with a better chance of winning than Trump. Or in other words any candidate likely to easily win against Biden has no chance to win the primaries.

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