Jump to content

U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!


Skywalkre

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 964
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

This is not necessarily related to the presidential primaries, and focusses on abortion, but I thought it made an interesting point which has been touched on in passing here: primaries are the real test to pass for candidates due to districts being widely gerrymandered to monochromacy. However, only the ten most ardent percent of a party base typically vote in primaries, leading to a radicalization of issues which may make candidates unelectable in the generals.

Quote

Abortion: The Republican Party’s Albatross

COMMENTARY

By Bill King - RCP Contributor

August 19, 2023

Polling has shown that for nearly five decades, slightly over half the American people have believed that abortion should be legal in some circumstances. Just over a quarter believe it should be legal in all circumstances, and about 17% believe it should be illegal under any circumstance. The opinions of the American people have been remarkably stable. However, since the repeal of Roe, there has been an uptick in those who believe it should be legal in any circumstance and a downtick in those who believe it should be illegal in any circumstance. In the last polls conducted by Gallup, only 13% of Americans said that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances.

A poll by Pew found about a dozen states where a majority believed that abortions should be illegal in “all or most circumstances.” I have not been able to find any poll in any state where there is anywhere close to a majority that believes it should be illegal in all circumstances. Recent Texas polling has the number of Texans with that view in the low teens.

Yet, Republicans in state legislatures across the country are pushing abortion restrictions that are clearly out of step with the nation’s mood. Why? Because typically only about 10% of voters show up for the Republican primaries, and virtually all of the 10-15% of Americans who believe abortion should be illegal in any circumstance vote in the Republican primaries. And because gerrymandering has made most November general elections irrelevant, Republican legislators must toe the line or face angry primary voters.

It is a dilemma for which the Republican Party has no solution and which is unlikely to be resolved anytime in the foreseeable future. For most Americans who believe a fetus at the time of conception has all the rights of a person, their belief is a fervent religious belief, which means that they are not persuadable to moderate their view and they cannot compromise on the issue. And because the Republican agenda includes this and other positions that are largely out of step with the majority of the American people, it is unlikely that the party is going to be able to expand its primary voting base to dilute the fervent anti-abortion voters.

[...]

The only thing that will keep the Republican Party from suffering a real free fall from its extreme anti-abortion agenda next November is that swing voters also view the Democratic Party as driven to extremes by its ideologues. Or, as one of my friends likes to say, “The only thing keeping the Republican Party afloat is how god-awful the Democratic Party is.”

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/08/19/abortion_the_republican_partys_albatross_149647.html?callback=in&code=YWNIYWUWZJCTMGJLNY0ZZWM5LWJIZDITODZLODHJZDRLMTDJ&state=6992670cf895410e9a0b072cabe58a0d

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, there are polls more detailed than 'support abortion/oppose abortion' or 'legal in all/most cases vs illegal in all/most cases'.

Quote

Poll: Americans want abortion restrictions, but not as far as red states are going

Americans increasingly see themselves as supportive of the right to have an abortion and disagree with the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision last year overturning the guaranteed right to an abortion in this country, the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

Most of the almost 1,300 respondents also said they are favor of restrictions, but they are opposed to many of the measures Republicans are pushing in red states.

Abortion rights have become a political flashpoint since the court's Dobbs ruling. It boosted enthusiasm and fundraising among Democrats and helped bolster them to better-than-expected finishes in the 2022 midterm elections.

Meanwhile, Republicans have struggled to find the right post-Roe balance after 50 years of lobbying for the landmark ruling to be overturned. They got their wish, but have suffered politically since.

Support for abortion rights at or near a high

In this survey, 61% said they mostly support abortion rights, 37% count themselves as opposed. That support is at or near record highs in the Marist survey and other surveys taken over the last 20 years or so.

A third of Republicans also qualify themselves as mostly supporting abortion rights, not an insignificant share in a party that has made opposition to abortion rights a litmus test for political candidates.

Two-thirds want abortion limited to the first trimester

Despite the majority support for abortion rights generally, 66% said abortion should be legal in, at most, the first three months of a pregnancy.

Almost 9 in 10 Republicans and three-quarters of independents want to see abortion restricted to three months or less. A majority of Democrats favor a longer window, but even 42% of Democrats want to see it limited.

...

Majorities supported:

- allowing abortion at any time during a pregnancy, if the life of the mother was at risk — 7 in 10 Republicans were in favor, too;

- allowing an abortion at any time during pregnancy in cases of rape or incest — also a majority of Republicans supported this; and

- allowing states, where abortion is legal, to be safe havens for those seeking abortions from other states.

Here, 58% of Republicans oppose safe-haven states, which puts GOP candidates in the potentially difficult position of opposing safe havens to appeal to the GOP base, but risking turning off persuadable voters in a general election.

https://www.npr.org/2023/04/26/1171863775/poll-americans-want-abortion-restrictions-but-not-as-far-as-red-states-are-going

Edited by urbanoid
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Desantis did better than I thought but didn’t stand out. Vivek kinda stole the show and was the most MAGA character on stage. Niki clearly is playing an electability angle, which won’t win her the primary but probably would win her the general. To some extent so is Christie as well, though he cuts a lane right through Trump instead of steering around. All in all, a sideshow with no moments that are going to allow anyone to break out. I think DeSantis pills down with rest of the pack next week, barely and not consistently in second.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something never really seen in the abortion debate is about ways that try to test for possible defects like down syndrome in the unborn baby. Such means probably have emerged not too recently but it seems to becoming more available and in various degrees of checking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn't watch the debate (can't stand them), but Powerline Blog's take seems reasonable;

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/08/what-was-brewing-in-milwaukee.php

VR is one of those guys who makes all the right noises 95% of the time, but then goes badly off the rails at random times.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/19/2023 at 12:16 PM, Skywalkre said:

It's puzzling that you can look at what's going on and believe the folks pushing for and defending prosecution of Trump are fake, grifters, and hustlers (it's also more than Ds, btw).  That's a... peculiar world view given what's coming out of Trump's camp as defense.

It's puzzling that you can not do so if you actually look at what's charged, the statutes in question and why. 

Speaking as a local to Fulton County and who's actually paid attention to how things work here for the entire time.....

On the case of the classified documents it's most founded as charges. BUT we saw a comparative example which was VERY clearly NOT charged because of political reasons even though there was a claim by the same figure that likely spillage of the classified data DID occur. That hasn't asserted in the case of Trump's classified documents. 

In the case of the Fulton County DA. Seriously? The previous DA charged officers in the shooting/murder of Rayshard Brooks. That was an entirely political set of charges, were utterly unfounded and then the follow on DA had to carry that case after that DA (Paul Howard) lost his election and moved to Gwinnett County. Willis was the DA who succeeded Howard and she kept on with the charges despite their utterly fatuous nature. She tried to pawn them off on the state AG who wasn't having any of that crap. 

So, yeah, it's puzzling how you can assert that an office that's rife with political direction on their charging and the foundation of charges is somehow pure as the driven snow in what they push through the court system. Never mind all of the OTHER problems in Fulton County. 

Edited by rmgill
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Maybe Vivek aims at being a VP candidate?

Either that or the alternative were Trump to drop out for any reason. He’d certainly give Ron a run for his money at the national level, perhaps New Hampshire as well. Doubt he’ll play well in Iowa.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Yes. With the entire media establishment working to make that happen. 

To be fair, not just the MSM in this case. Though honestly, what chance did anyone ever have? Desantis has been losing ground since Jan or Feb, and I think at least part of that was him not striking while the iron was hot. He could have pushed through legislation to get him in the race earlier rather that fucking with Disney.

The GOP had a lot of chances to explicitly say Trump lost or even ban him from future office. They chose to kick the Trump can down the road every chance they got, top to bottom, assuming some other set of circumstances would end him without them actually putting the work in.

Edited by Josh
Link to comment
Share on other sites

DeSantis is losing ground in part because the media has a love hate relationship with Trump. He gets eyeballs on screens and mouse clicks. 
 

It is very early to say who has a good amount of ground unless they’re folks like Tim Scott. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, rmgill said:

DeSantis is losing ground in part because the media has a love hate relationship with Trump. He gets eyeballs on screens and mouse clicks. 

Nonsense. The MSM wants Trump to win the nomination because they believe he is the easiest to defeat in 2024. 

Recall how hard they promoted Trump during the R primaries in 2016. It was entirely obvious the Dem plan (and thus the MSM plan) was to have Trump run against Hillary in the general. The first part of the plan appeared to work, which is why they were outraged at the final result. The second part of their brilliant plan had to have been, by definition, brilliant. So how did Trump win? Had to have been cheating. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, rmgill said:

DeSantis is losing ground in part because the media has a love hate relationship with Trump. He gets eyeballs on screens and mouse clicks. 
 

It is very early to say who has a good amount of ground unless they’re folks like Tim Scott. 

No one is holding a gun to people’s head to vote for him. And no GOP primary voters are watching CNN. If you want to blame the media for Trump winning the primary, you’re going to have to explicitly blame the conservative media.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Josh said:

No one is holding a gun to people’s head to vote for him. And no GOP primary voters are watching CNN. If you want to blame the media for Trump winning the primary, you’re going to have to explicitly blame the conservative media.

LOL, good one.  Trump and the Left stream media are working together to attack RDS, they even use the same talking points.  Perhaps, because you've limited yourself to an insulated bubble, you didn't realize that more money has been spent attacking RDS than all the other candidates combined have had spent against them.  

I'll give you this, Orange loyalists, of which there are legion, would rather King Maga lose in 2024 than back any other candidate in his stead.

Edited by DKTanker
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, DKTanker said:

LOL, good one.  Trump and the Left stream media are working together to attack RDS, they even use the same talking points.  Perhaps, because you've limited yourself to an insulated bubble, you didn't realize that more money has been spent attacking RDS than all the other candidates combined have had spent against them.  

Oh I’ve noticed, I’m just not particularly convinced that’s meatball’s problem. I think CNN could run nothing but anti Ron ads 24/7 and a Republican primary voter wouldn’t notice. Tree falling with no one to hear it. I also think if they did notice, they would just take it as a cue to vote Desantis. Pretty sure Ron just made his own mistakes and that Trump is good at martyring himself to the GOP base, regardless of what the MSN does. Ron winning the nom would guarantee a GOP loss, IMO.

 

What has Fox been running recently? Do you think they are tipping the scales in any intentional way with their recent Ramaswamy worship?

Edited by Josh
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, DKTanker said:

You didn't realize that more money has been spent attacking RDS than all the other candidates combined have had spent against them.  

I don't believe I've seen any attack ads yet. Are they being shown in Iowa or New Hampshire?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 17thfabn said:

I don't believe I've seen any attack ads yet. Are they being shown in Iowa or New Hampshire?

Trump definitely has been running his own attack adds since before Desantis even declared he was it the race.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Josh said:

Oh I’ve noticed, I’m just not particularly convinced that’s meatball’s problem. I think CNN could run nothing but anti Ron ads 24/7 and a Republican primary voter wouldn’t notice. I also think if they did notice, they would just take it as a que to vote Desantis.

What has Fox been running recently? Do you think they are tipping the scales in any international way with their recent Ramaswamy worship?

I have no idea what Fox has been running, I stopped watching Fox, except for one hourly show, when they pushed their chips all in for Trump in 2016.  I stopped watching Fox entirely when they fired Tucker Carlson.  I cut ties with him after his pearl necklace slurpathon with Trump.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

I don't believe I've seen any attack ads yet. Are they being shown in Iowa or New Hampshire?

Here in Iowa I've seen a few that focus on electability. Nothing super hard hitting though. My exposure to adds is limited since we mostly use our TV for streaming and rarely watch broadcast tv.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...