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U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!


Skywalkre

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Meghan Markle backed for White House run by Joe Biden’s sister, Valerie: report

EPHRAIM HARDCASTLE: Joe Biden's political activist sister Valerie has endorsed Meghan Markle for the White House

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As Meghan's US popularity nosedives below that of Harry, a smidgen of good news for her. Joe Biden's political activist sister Valerie has endorsed her as a woman she would back for the White House. 

And despite having never stood for election, the former TV actress is topping a poll of Democrats asked which woman they would vote for. 

She ties with vice president Kamala Harris and is ahead of Hillary Clinton. 

Waiting for the usual NPCs to claim she is the best presidential candidate since Theodore Roosevelt.

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1 hour ago, DKTanker said:

I was saying he should have done that two months ago.  

Why are you so frightened of him?

I'm not the least concerned by him; he's already lost. More over I'd rather have him win the nom. But the constant reshuffling of the deck chairs on the Titanic is amusing.

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  • 2 weeks later...

NYT a few weeks back looked over the modern primary era and saw that no one who led by 20 points at this point in the process lost the nomination.  Trump is nearly double that over DeSantis currently.

I've been on vacation so while in some hotels I had access to all the cable news channels.  Spent the night of the most recent indictment mostly swapping between them.  It's... interesting to see the discussion shift yet again around "what will it take for Trump to lose support?"  The new line in the sand seems to be "if he's convicted we may see his supporters leave." 

I don't buy it.  If your supporters are unwilling to look at the merits of the various cases and believe they're all politically motivated... why would a conviction change that?  It wouldn't.  At this point I don't believe anything will change the minds of most of his supporters.

Along those lines my friend was telling me about a book he recently read.  The author was looking at Trump's supporters and was just trying to understand them.  In particular they looked at the large support Evangelicals give to Trump.  The author polled these folks on how they view basic Evangelical and Christian beliefs.  To their surprise... these folks didn't actually believe in what they claimed to.

Now... this was just what my friend was relaying to me.  Haven't read the book and no idea what the differences were (I grew up in a very Conservative Lutheran church so I'm fully aware how differences between congregations, synods, and various forms of Christianity can be exaggerated when they really shouldn't be).  Still... my friend's conclusion was that for some of Trump's supporters following him is approaching a religion.  I can't say I necessarily disagree...

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Trump support inside the GOP isn’t going anywhere and I’ve only read one article that implies it could. The article makes the argument that some supporters are worried about electability (something the democrats of 2020 stressed about endlessly and likely why Bernie lost to Biden).

To paraphrase what I said on the Trump thread, the electability argument hinges on the GOP primary voters believing Trump isn’t electable, which is a hard sell if you never believed he lost 2020 and that nothing he ever does is his fault.

Something I stated on another board but not here yet - if I substitute the Palestinian Authority or Hamas for the Republicans, the arguments sound similar: everyone is against them, their enemies control everything, and nothing is their fault.

Edited by Josh
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15 minutes ago, Josh said:

If substitute the Palestinian Authority or Hamas for the Republicans, the arguments sound similar: everyone is against them, their enemies control everything, and nothing is their fault.

And Democrat's arguments are that all Trump supporters are "deplorables" which is basically a carbon copy of the Israeli right wingers "all Palestinians are baby killers" 🙄

And ftr I am neither 😋

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11 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Along those lines my friend was telling me about a book he recently read.  The author was looking at Trump's supporters and was just trying to understand them.  In particular they looked at the large support Evangelicals give to Trump.  The author polled these folks on how they view basic Evangelical and Christian beliefs.  To their surprise... these folks didn't actually believe in what they claimed to.

Some time ago I read a report on a study saying that most people on conspiracy-themed websites/chatgroups etc. don't really believe in the tropes they spout, it's more a token of membership with the in-group, like reciting a creed in church. After all, even serious Christians may not believe that God actually created the world in six days, every living creature today is descended of one pair of their kind each from Noah's Ark while all else on Earth drowned, or that wine and bread physically turn into Christ's flesh and blood during communion; yet they feel comfortable in their faith, or at least the social community of their congregation. So yeah, Trumpism kinda works like a religion centered on a savior-martyr figure, and the dedication of its members probably can only be explained by that, or some pretty heavy psychological approach.

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I think Ramaswarmy might give Desantis quite a run for his money in the debate. He’s charismatic and can think on his feet from what very little I’ve seen of him. He has done bit parts for Fox News and is more self assured in front of the cameras.

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Trump to skip debate and instead do a live interview with the guy who is documented as wanted to be rid of him post Jan 6th.

Also circling back to the DeSantis debate thing, who the hell is running his Super PAC? I know they are somewhat constrained by limitation of direct communication with the candidate, but Never Back Down just tripped over its own dick harder than any PAC in the history of PACs as far as I can tell.

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On 8/17/2023 at 2:43 AM, BansheeOne said:

Some time ago I read a report on a study saying that most people on conspiracy-themed websites/chatgroups etc. don't really believe in the tropes they spout, it's more a token of membership with the in-group, like reciting a creed in church. After all, even serious Christians may not believe that God actually created the world in six days, every living creature today is descended of one pair of their kind each from Noah's Ark while all else on Earth drowned, or that wine and bread physically turn into Christ's flesh and blood during communion; yet they feel comfortable in their faith, or at least the social community of their congregation. So yeah, Trumpism kinda works like a religion centered on a savior-martyr figure, and the dedication of its members probably can only be explained by that, or some pretty heavy psychological approach.

The community thing is probably a big part of it.  I saw some discussion recently focusing on that.  Following Trump wasn't about policy, they said, it was about the party atmosphere and community that went with it.

I may also be way overthinking all of this.  The simplest explanation could simply be all these folks are suffering from sunk cost fallacy.  They've invested so much in Trump they can't bring themselves to turn away from him even if he is completely toxic at this point.  There was a post on reddit a few weeks back where someone screenshotted just such a comment from someone posting on r/conservative.  The poster basically said "I don't care if he is guilty of everything he's been charged with, at this point I've hung all my hopes on him and I'm not leaving."  Just... yeah... :huh:

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16 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

 

I may also be way overthinking all of this.  The simplest explanation could simply be all these folks are suffering from sunk cost fallacy.  They've invested so much in Trump they can't bring themselves to turn away from him even if he is completely toxic at this point.  

I would say you're probably underthinking the problem if this is the conclusion you've reached. 

In my experience when people use fake drama queen antics in a calculated fashion to gain advantage, people tend to react poorly to that and push back hard.  When the media, establishment, and the Left goes fakely hysterical at the idea of Trump as president in 2024, you have to understand that there will be push back.  People do not like being manipulated and lied to, and they do not believe that the CNN water works and antics are much beyond acting.  From that, many will conclude that what the whiners actually require is 4 more years as Trump as president.  So the more the Left stamps its feet, don't be surprised if the response is higher Trump poll numbers. 

Hope that summary  helps.

Edited by glenn239
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23 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

In my experience when people use fake drama queen antics in a calculated fashion to gain advantage, people tend to react poorly to that and push back hard.

That certainly explains why Trump's getting beaten on so much. 😋👍

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The Democrats assume their fake antics of outrage towards Trump are seen as genuine on the Right.  This is often the problem of grifters and hustlers, that they are so used to lying and being believed, that when they are not believed and instead confronted head on, they become indignant, confused, and even more irrational.  So, for Skywalkre, the take away is that if Trump's poll numbers continue to rise as the charges and vitriol pour in, he should not be surprised.  The Left picked the battlefield but they cannot as easily pick the outcome of the battle.

Edited by glenn239
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And Trumpists assume that a lifelong con man's fake antics of "OMG THE PEOPLE WHO STOLE THE ELECTION FROM ME ARE COMING AFTER ME AGAIN JUST BECAUSE I TOLD THE GEORGIA SECSTATE TO FIND ENOUGH VOTES FOR ME TO WIN, DONATE SO I GET RE-ELECTED AND BEAT JAIL!" are seen as genuine by anyone but themselves. 😉

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2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Democrats assume their fake antics of outrage towards Trump are seen as genuine on the Right.  This is often the problem of grifters and hustlers, that they are so used to lying and being believed, that when they are not believed and instead confronted head on, they become indignant, confused, and even more irrational.  So, for Skywalkre, the take away is that if Trump's poll numbers continue to rise as the charges and vitriol pour in, he should not be surprised.  The Left picked the battlefield but they cannot as easily pick the outcome of the battle.

It's puzzling that you can look at what's going on and believe the folks pushing for and defending prosecution of Trump are fake, grifters, and hustlers (it's also more than Ds, btw).  That's a... peculiar world view given what's coming out of Trump's camp as defense.

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2 hours ago, Sardaukar said:

DeSantis seems to be imploding quickly...

To be fair he's been on a steady decline for months.  In hindsight it makes sense... some pundits have said his delay in getting into the race did nothing.  He had that high at the end of last year and just left it... hanging.  Then when he did enter the race he did nothing to challenge the front runner.  How does one expect to win a party's nomination process when most of the time you're defending the clear front runner?  To quote Dodgeball:

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I forgot to add... a pundit last night mentioned that a common question being asked of almost every campaign these days is, "is <insert candidate> running to be Trump's VP?"  Apparently this pisses off said spokespersons of all the campaigns quite a bit.  🤣

It's a fair question, though, and would help explain Trump's supposed adversaries constantly standing up for and defending him (the only exceptions being Hutchinson, Pence, and Christie).

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21 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I would say you're probably underthinking the problem if this is the conclusion you've reached. 

In my experience when people use fake drama queen antics in a calculated fashion to gain advantage, people tend to react poorly to that and push back hard.  When the media, establishment, and the Left goes fakely hysterical at the idea of Trump as president in 2024, you have to understand that there will be push back.  People do not like being manipulated and lied to, and they do not believe that the CNN water works and antics are much beyond acting.  From that, many will conclude that what the whiners actually require is 4 more years as Trump as president.  So the more the Left stamps its feet, don't be surprised if the response is higher Trump poll numbers. 

Hope that summary  helps.

The left wing hysteria is at least the equivalent of right wing hysteria. Virtually every conservative outlet and candidate has pitched this election as the last stand for the US (or at least the conservative US). In fact if anything, rather more so: I think you’d find a lot more End Of The World opinions of Fox News than CNN.

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3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Democrats assume their fake antics of outrage towards Trump are seen as genuine on the Right.  This is often the problem of grifters and hustlers, that they are so used to lying and being believed, that when they are not believed and instead confronted head on, they become indignant, confused, and even more irrational.  So, for Skywalkre, the take away is that if Trump's poll numbers continue to rise as the charges and vitriol pour in, he should not be surprised.  The Left picked the battlefield but they cannot as easily pick the outcome of the battle.

The media of both sides are playing to their base for the purpose of filling seats or selling advertising, not influencing the other side. And again, conservatives are as or more guilty: Faux News had to settle for the better part of a billion dollars because of what they were selling.

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3 hours ago, Sardaukar said:

DeSantis seems to be imploding quickly...

I think you should use the past tense…if he doesn’t pull off a win at debate, he’s basically in the same tier as everyone else.

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