Josh Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 (edited) 7 hours ago, Mikel2 said: Trump supports many progressive policies (which the left should be applauding). It's not surprising that many GOP candidates are going to be to the right of him. He seems to be more wishy washy on abortion and he supported moderate criminal justice reform...but I can't think of any other issues he's particularly "left" on. But my point was less about specific issues and more concerned with the fact that since Trump is the center of the party, he pretty much defines conservatism, and trying to run to the right of that isn't going to get much traction. DeSantis needs to make the case that Trump either can't win or is unsuitable to run the country. The former is difficult because such a large percentage of the GOP doesn't believe he ever lost and the latter would be a full 180 by Desantis that would almost certainly alienate the base. I think it takes an act of God to prevent Trump from being the nominee. There is basically no scandal or transgression on his part that could possibly shake his position - not even the proverbial shooting on 5th Avenue. Edited July 10 by Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Josh said: He seems to be more wishy washy on abortion and he supported moderate criminal justice reform...but I can't think of any other issues he's particularly "left" on. But my point was less about specific issues and more concerned with the fact that since Trump is the center of the party, he pretty much defines conservatism, and trying to run to the right of that isn't going to get much traction. DeSantis needs to make the case that Trump either can't win or is unsuitable to run the country. The former is difficult because such a large percentage of the GOP doesn't believe he ever lost and the latter would be a full 180 by Desantis that would almost certainly alienate the base. I think it takes an act of God to prevent Trump from being the nominee. There is basically no scandal or transgression on his part that could possibly shake his position - not even the proverbial shooting on 5th Avenue. Months ago on here I remember a few people stating that while they were ok with Trump they didn't think he was electable. Some pundits way back when felt as well that that may be the angle to push. It now seems clear that strategy has no traction. There's no doubt now the 'stolen election' is a belief that a majority of Rs hold. If you think the system is rigged and your guy actually won... pushing an argument he can't win is folly. If he loses again the same folks will think the election was stolen regardless of any supporting evidence (just like back in '20) and if they're so firmly sold on that being reality than it doesn't matter what other R gets the nomination because the same system will just be used to prevent their win as well. Per the bolded bit I think you're spot on... it would take an act of God to prevent Trump from being nominated at this point. The Fed indictment is solid and that had no effect. The 'stolen election' nonsense has been shown over and over to be nothing and they still believe it. 538's tracker of R candidates has shown DeSantis, the only real challenger, dropping for months and now flatlining to a point he offers no challenge anymore. At this point you're literally dealing with a substantial part of the R party that is living in... fantasy land (and, frankly, given some of the posts we see on here by some of them... that description fits). At this point I think the only course of action is to grab a comfy seat, get some popcorn, and enjoy watching the train wreck as it chugs along to the '24 general election (and beyond... because win or lose it'll still be 'entertaining' for months/years to come after). Edited July 10 by Skywalkre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikel2 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 (edited) 3 hours ago, Josh said: He seems to be more wishy washy on abortion and he supported moderate criminal justice reform...but I can't think of any other issues he's particularly "left" on. But my point was less about specific issues and more concerned with the fact that since Trump is the center of the party, he pretty much defines conservatism, and trying to run to the right of that isn't going to get much traction. DeSantis needs to make the case that Trump either can't win or is unsuitable to run the country. The former is difficult because such a large percentage of the GOP doesn't believe he ever lost and the latter would be a full 180 by Desantis that would almost certainly alienate the base. I think it takes an act of God to prevent Trump from being the nominee. There is basically no scandal or transgression on his part that could possibly shake his position - not even the proverbial shooting on 5th Avenue. The problem with Trump (one of them) is that he does not have a consistent ideology and there are many matters to which he has not given much thought. If you ask Rand Paul a policy question, he's going to answer through the prism of small, limited government. With Trump... No one knows what you are going to get, not even Trump. This is one of the reasons why Desantis is often to the right of Trump. And I'm perfectly OK with that. Edited July 10 by Mikel2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angrybk Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 5 hours ago, Josh said: He seems to be more wishy washy on abortion and he supported moderate criminal justice reform...but I can't think of any other issues he's particularly "left" on. But my point was less about specific issues and more concerned with the fact that since Trump is the center of the party, he pretty much defines conservatism, and trying to run to the right of that isn't going to get much traction. DeSantis needs to make the case that Trump either can't win or is unsuitable to run the country. The former is difficult because such a large percentage of the GOP doesn't believe he ever lost and the latter would be a full 180 by Desantis that would almost certainly alienate the base. I think it takes an act of God to prevent Trump from being the nominee. There is basically no scandal or transgression on his part that could possibly shake his position - not even the proverbial shooting on 5th Avenue. There's actually a lot of things Trump has been "left" on -- he's made statements in favor of gay marriage, trans women in beauty contests, etc. and his military-intervention policy during his tenure was definitely not traditional Republicanism/neocon/whatever you want to call it. I agree that DeSantis doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the nom for a wide variety of reasons, one of which is that he's got too much "traditional conservative" baggage with regards to Medicare, Social Security, etc. He's trying to compensate with the whole obsessive anti-woke brand, but I think that's just kind of confusing people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futon Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 (edited) 1 hour ago, Angrybk said: There's actually a lot of things Trump has been "left" on -- he's made statements in favor of gay marriage, trans women in beauty contests, etc. and his military-intervention policy during his tenure was definitely not traditional Republicanism/neocon/whatever you want to call it. I agree that DeSantis doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the nom for a wide variety of reasons, one of which is that he's got too much "traditional conservative" baggage with regards to Medicare, Social Security, etc. He's trying to compensate with the whole obsessive anti-woke brand, but I think that's just kind of confusing people. There's been a lot of pulling things out of context and misrepresentation in recent US politics. Related to gay marriage or trans in beauty contest, I just watched his Nevada stop over which had a segment about men in women's swimming and how wrong that was. It's necessary to unknot the targeting on Trump because its the targeting that utilizes means that don't necessarily justify the ends by resulting in accepted troll behavior by the biggest MSM power on the planet.. thus the necessity to unknot it. It needs to be known to what degree of dishonesty we have to work with. Way too much garbage quality in excessive hearsay reliance or causing dysfunctional culture of kneejerking. So... No link mind as well mean it didn't happen. Edited July 11 by futon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 20 hours ago, Mikel2 said: The problem with Trump (one of them) is that he does not have a consistent ideology and there are many matters to which he has not given much thought. If you ask Rand Paul a policy question, he's going to answer through the prism of small, limited government. With Trump... No one knows what you are going to get, not even Trump. I've always said his supporters seem to only care that he pisses off the Left. That's not policy... that's pettiness. So what will it take to bring Rs back to thinking about and supporting policy? Maybe Zeihan's explanation covers this. If we're really in the midst of this political reshuffling... and the groups that make up Rs and Ds will look completely different in a few years than what was the norm for the last several decades... maybe it's impossible to really support someone on policy since the party's respective policies aren't settled because the base is in flux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 14 hours ago, Skywalkre said: I've always said his supporters seem to only care that he pisses off the Left. That's not policy... that's pettiness. So what will it take to bring Rs back to thinking about and supporting policy? Maybe Zeihan's explanation covers this. If we're really in the midst of this political reshuffling... and the groups that make up Rs and Ds will look completely different in a few years than what was the norm for the last several decades... maybe it's impossible to really support someone on policy since the party's respective policies aren't settled because the base is in flux? The Republican base doesn’t seem that in flux to me, though I’ve not heard Zeihan’s theory on the matter (I generally disagree with his conclusions but enjoy his arguments). The issue seems to be the base is more interested in grievances than policy, and I think that is a direct result of conservative tv/radio, which caters to the same. Not that more main stream or left wing media doesn’t have its faults and prejudices, but whipping its base up into a frenzy or making blanket statements about an entire other party (the reoccurring democrats/the media want to destroy America theme) is uniquely conservative. I think conservative media outlets encourage a more emotional response than left wing outlets do, or at least a response more rooted in anger than other emotions, and it results in its viewers responding favorably to a more combative political style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angrybk Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 (edited) I think a lot of he reshuffling has already happened, although this is largely due to the Republican Party's reinventing itself as a Euro-style hard-right party (anti-interventionist foreign policy, anti-immigration, strong social safety net for citizens). Although things like suspicion of "experts" medical or otherwise, fear of a "deep state," etc. owe a lot more to older leftie ideas and serve to explain why a lot of current US Republicans like RFK Jr. more than they do the Bushes. Edited July 12 by Angrybk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Well it would specifically be Trump that is reinventing the party, but I agree the process seems as complete as it will get among the voter base and state level offices. There is a remaining old guard at the national level that will likely persist for some years. I think the trust issues with government date back to the idea of small government in the Reagan days - that's when government be came a four letter word to the GOP near as I can tell. Perhaps it preceded that; before my time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BansheeOne Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 hours ago, Angrybk said: I think a lot of he reshuffling has already happened, although this is largely due to the Republican Party's reinventing itself as a Euro-style hard-right party (anti-interventionist foreign policy, anti-immigration, strong social safety net for citizens). Although things like suspicion of "experts" medical or otherwise, fear of a "deep state," etc. owe a lot more to older leftie ideas and serve to explain why a lot of current US Republicans like RFK Jr. more than they do the Bushes. It's rather complex. The European New Right took a lot of cues from the European Middle-Aged Left, which then would have been imported into the American Right via Bannon et al. But then both the European Left and Right have also long been influenced by their American counterparts, the former since at least the 1960s, the latter at least the 1990s, and between themselves have reproduced much of the American cultural warfare, though tempered by different socio-economic conditions and European multi-party systems. So some of the imported streaks may actually be re-imports. "Deep state" again is originally a Turkish term (though similar concepts like "state within a state" have existed in Europe since at least the 18th century, and of course conspiracy theories about certain groups secretly pulling the strings of government abound in much of the world), used since the 1990s by various groups like leftists and Islamists to describe real or imagined anti-democratic government action against their successes. I've always wondered how the hell that got transfered to the American Right so specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold Jones Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Saw an anti-Trump add on broadcast TV last night. First one of the season as far as I could tell. It was an apparently sincere purported trump voter who says that he's even split with family due to his support for Trump. He goes on to say that Trump has too much drama and can't win the general. Didn't catch the Super Pac that is running the add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 Some interesting commentary this last week from the pundits. First, apparently big R donors are losing faith in DeSantis and looking to see who they should shift their support to. Scott seems to be the leading candidate to receive this boost in funding. Would it even matter, though, when Trump has the massive lead that he does? Second, speaking of Trump, there's talk now he may just skip the debates. The question was would that hurt him... but given how nothing makes sense and historical precedent can be thrown out the window with modern R voters some speculate this could actually help him (similar to how his Fed indictment helped his numbers). If he doesn't show up his supporters likely don't tune in... so it's irrelevant how good any of those on stage may do if their message doesn't get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 I would not show up if I was trump. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose. Him not showing up deprives everyone else of any opportunity to set them apart or take a swing at him. The smart move is to just suck it and take the win, thought I suspect his ego won’t allow that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detonable Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 On 7/10/2023 at 4:12 PM, Skywalkre said: Months ago on here I remember a few people stating that while they were ok with Trump they didn't think he was electable. Some pundits way back when felt as well that that may be the angle to push. It now seems clear that strategy has no traction. There's no doubt now the 'stolen election' is a belief that a majority of Rs hold. If you think the system is rigged and your guy actually won... pushing an argument he can't win is folly. If he loses again the same folks will think the election was stolen regardless of any supporting evidence (just like back in '20) and if they're so firmly sold on that being reality than it doesn't matter what other R gets the nomination because the same system will just be used to prevent their win as well. Per the bolded bit I think you're spot on... it would take an act of God to prevent Trump from being nominated at this point. The Fed indictment is solid and that had no effect. The 'stolen election' nonsense has been shown over and over to be nothing and they still believe it. 538's tracker of R candidates has shown DeSantis, the only real challenger, dropping for months and now flatlining to a point he offers no challenge anymore. At this point you're literally dealing with a substantial part of the R party that is living in... fantasy land (and, frankly, given some of the posts we see on here by some of them... that description fits). At this point I think the only course of action is to grab a comfy seat, get some popcorn, and enjoy watching the train wreck as it chugs along to the '24 general election (and beyond... because win or lose it'll still be 'entertaining' for months/years to come after). It’s unlikely that the cadaver received more votes than Obama. So widespread fraud almost certainly occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 13 hours ago, Josh said: I would not show up if I was trump. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose. Him not showing up deprives everyone else of any opportunity to set them apart or take a swing at him. I don't think there is any way Trump can stay away from a chance to get attention. Not going to the debates may be the smart move, but it is not in Trump's nature to avoid the limelight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 21 hours ago, Detonable said: It’s unlikely that the cadaver received more votes than Obama. So widespread fraud almost certainly occurred. Didn’t really campaign and won more votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angrybk Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Just your friendly neighborhood reminder that whatever anybody says about RFK Jr., he is absolutely batshit insane. Many pundits are commenting that it took him a surprisingly long time to incorporate The Jooz in his conspiracy theories: https://nypost.com/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-says-covid-was-ethnically-targeted-to-spare-jews/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Angrybk said: Just your friendly neighborhood reminder that whatever anybody says about RFK Jr., he is absolutely batshit insane. Many pundits are commenting that it took him a surprisingly long time to incorporate The Jooz in his conspiracy theories: https://nypost.com/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-says-covid-was-ethnically-targeted-to-spare-jews/ Wow! The Jews even control the Chi Comms! You have to be impressed. The conservative commentators mostly like RFK JR because he makes Biden uncomfortable. But most acknowledge that he is not a conservative and is crazy. Edited July 17 by 17thfabn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 22 hours ago, Detonable said: It’s unlikely that the cadaver received more votes than Obama. So widespread fraud almost certainly occurred. So you did not like the results of the election and just assume fraud as a result? Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BansheeOne Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 39 minutes ago, Angrybk said: Just your friendly neighborhood reminder that whatever anybody says about RFK Jr., he is absolutely batshit insane. Many pundits are commenting that it took him a surprisingly long time to incorporate The Jooz in his conspiracy theories: https://nypost.com/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-says-covid-was-ethnically-targeted-to-spare-jews/ Jews, Chinese and Finns. It all becomes clear now. 😶 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawk Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 8 minutes ago, BansheeOne said: Jews, Chinese and Finns. It all becomes clear now. 😶 See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ 22 hours ago, Detonable said: It’s unlikely that the cadaver received more votes than Obama. So widespread fraud almost certainly occurred. What if a vote for Sleepy Joe was mostly a vote against the Donald? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 3 hours ago, rmgill said: Didn’t really campaign and won more votes. What a superb candidate!!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 2 hours ago, BansheeOne said: Jews, Chinese and Finns. It all becomes clear now. 😶 I don't know what the connection is between Finns, Jews and the Chinese........ but I have no doubt it is the work of the British royal family! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhoe Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 24 minutes ago, 17thfabn said: I don't know what the connection is between Finns, Jews and the Chinese........ but I have no doubt it is the work of the British royal family! Who are, as we all know, reptilians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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