U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!

[17thfabn]

11 hours ago, Josh said:

Trump will burn him down anyway. Either he’ll run independently or just tell his voters it’s rigged (“angain”) and not to show up.

Trumpism is such a malignant force.

[Skywalkre]

So with what feels like 50 Rs running for POTUS my first reaction was "these idiots learned nothing from '16".  The belief by many pundits from back then was the massive pool of candidates diluted the group of voters that could have derailed Trump's candidacy if they had just 1-2 candidates to get behind.

But this isn't '16.  A majority of Rs are firmly MAGA-ish even if they might state they're kind of worn out of Trump (I'm still shocked that a poll from just a few weeks ago showed 60% of Rs believe the '20 election was 'stolen').  One pundit I saw recently said the data she's seeing shows just 10-15% of Rs are actually willing to vote for someone that's not Trump (they were lumping in Trump and DeSantis voters as the same... which makes sense).

In short... basically none of these 500 Rs really have a shot.

To be fair it is early and I just heard tonight the first debate is coming in Aug.  The polling requirement is only 1% so it may be a crowded stage.  The question everyone is asking is... does Trump bother to show up?

[Josh]

Trump can’t stand not being in spotlight. I think he will agree to supporting the eventual candidate. He can always just go back on his word later in the unlikely event he isn’t the nominee.

As for all the other Rs jumping in (three just this week), I have no idea what they are thinking. The only way they win is if an act of god removes Trump and Tiny Ron suffers a total flame out, which has to be the narrowest of paths in decades.

[17thfabn]

14 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

But this isn't '16.  A majority of Rs are firmly MAGA-ish even if they might state they're kind of worn out of Trump (I'm still shocked that a poll from just a few weeks ago showed 60% of Rs believe the '20 election was 'stolen').  One pundit I saw recently said the data she's seeing shows just 10-15% of Rs are actually willing to vote for someone that's not Trump (they were lumping in Trump and DeSantis voters as the same... which makes sense).

In short... basically none of these 500 Rs really have a shot.

The way I see it the race for the Republican 2024 nomination is a three way battle.

Trump

DeSantis

Every one else

Hopefully the every one else will be quickly narrowed down.

As for those running who have little or no chance? From what I hear.

Some are running to raise their profile.

On the Republican side an example may be Vivek Ramaswamy. He is from my local. From those who have heard him speak he comes across quite well. Articulate and intelligent. And has about ZERO chance of getting the nomination. But it raises his profile.

Some are seen as hoping to get attention as possible vice presidential picks, or cabinet members in a future Republican administration.For instance Nikki Haley is said by some to be a possible Vice Presidential pick or possible future Secretary of State.

Some may be hoping to raise the profile of their ideas. For example former Congress Rep. Liz Chaney hopes to raise the profile of her pet idea, "I hate Trump, Trump sucks".

Some could be attack dogs for Trump or DeSantis. Chaney & Christie are no fans of Trump and could attack him with impunity. They have nothing to lose. 

Former Vice President Mike Pence, remember him? Apparently he is running. His pet project is to remind every one that the U.S. had a Vice President Pence. 

Hopefully the candidates such as Hutchinson, Abbot, Noem etc. who evoke the  reaction "who" will quickly get out of the way.

[EchoFiveMike]

They get to pocket the campaign money.  It's glorified money laundering.  S/F...Ken M

[Skywalkre]

On 6/6/2023 at 10:14 AM, Josh said:

As for all the other Rs jumping in (three just this week), I have no idea what they are thinking.

Listening to the pundits they like to remind folks these are very smart policitians... yet how smart are Haley and Scott, who are both running on a more positive message, when the R party is clearly a party of obsessed with perceived victimhood and more concerned with pissing off the Left than actually having principles and policies and following through on them?

David Brooks was talking about Scott and said "he's just a really nice guy... and you don't see that much with politicians these days."  My first thought was - he has no chance, then.

[Skywalkre]

On 6/6/2023 at 12:36 PM, 17thfabn said:

The way I see it the race for the Republican 2024 nomination is a three way battle.

Trump

DeSantis

Every one else

Hopefully the every one else will be quickly narrowed down.

As for those running who have little or no chance? From what I hear.

Some are running to raise their profile.

On the Republican side an example may be Vivek Ramaswamy. He is from my local. From those who have heard him speak he comes across quite well. Articulate and intelligent. And has about ZERO chance of getting the nomination. But it raises his profile.

Some are seen as hoping to get attention as possible vice presidential picks, or cabinet members in a future Republican administration.For instance Nikki Haley is said by some to be a possible Vice Presidential pick or possible future Secretary of State.

Some may be hoping to raise the profile of their ideas. For example former Congress Rep. Liz Chaney hopes to raise the profile of her pet idea, "I hate Trump, Trump sucks".

Some could be attack dogs for Trump or DeSantis. Chaney & Christie are no fans of Trump and could attack him with impunity. They have nothing to lose. 

Former Vice President Mike Pence, remember him? Apparently he is running. His pet project is to remind every one that the U.S. had a Vice President Pence. 

Hopefully the candidates such as Hutchinson, Abbot, Noem etc. who evoke the  reaction "who" will quickly get out of the way.

Fair point... not everyone actually thinks they have a chance at it and are doing it for ulterior motives.

Still... I'm torn about the reality of the R party right now.  As mentioned it seems more to be about petty vindictiveness than of substance... so if you're a politician who actually does have policy and principle... how do you approach it?  Do you run the 'good campaign' in hopes of spreading that message, planting the seeds?  You're destined to fail... so what's the best approach to right the ship?

[Josh]

On 6/6/2023 at 3:36 PM, 17thfabn said:

Some are running to raise their profile.

That's a fair point. There is no way Trump runs in 2028 no matter what happens; some of this could just be positioning.

On 6/6/2023 at 3:36 PM, 17thfabn said:

Some are seen as hoping to get attention as possible vice presidential picks, or cabinet members in a future Republican administration.

That's would be a more typical talking point in a regular election, except that in this case just running against Trump votes you off the island. No one in this line up is going to be in Trump's white house (again) so while that would be a normal reason to run a campaign in some cycles, it doesn't fit 2024. There is no one in this field that Trump would hire.

On 6/6/2023 at 3:36 PM, 17thfabn said:

Some may be hoping to raise the profile of their ideas.

None of them have displayed any ideals that significantly deviate from core MAGAism, except for perhaps Scott sounding more hopeful and not declaring a Biden second term the coming of the antichrist. Again, for some elections sure, for 2024 I don't think so.

On 6/6/2023 at 3:36 PM, 17thfabn said:

Some could be attack dogs for Trump or DeSantis.

I think Christie is just spoiling for a fight against Trump and I'm not sure he even has a goal outside of that, but I would agree he absolutely fits into this category.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

Fair point... not everyone actually thinks they have a chance at it and are doing it for ulterior motives.

Still... I'm torn about the reality of the R party right now.  As mentioned it seems more to be about petty vindictiveness than of substance... so if you're a politician who actually does have policy and principle... how do you approach it?  Do you run the 'good campaign' in hopes of spreading that message, planting the seeds?  You're destined to fail... so what's the best approach to right the ship?

You back out this year. See Sununu. You wait until Trump is either too old or constitutionally not allowed to run again, which is 2028, come hell or high water.

Edited June 8 by Josh

[Skywalkre]

47 minutes ago, Josh said:

You back out this year. See Sununu. You wait until Trump is either too old or constitutionally not allowed to run again, which is 2028, come hell or high water.

Will he really be too old by then?  He doesn't come across as frail as Biden.  While old... I'm afraid he could be around for another decade or more (and running that entire time).  His hubris and all... we could see him for many election cycles to come.

[seahawk]

10 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Listening to the pundits they like to remind folks these are very smart policitians... yet how smart are Haley and Scott, who are both running on a more positive message, when the R party is clearly a party of obsessed with perceived victimhood and more concerned with pissing off the Left than actually having principles and policies and following through on them?

David Brooks was talking about Scott and said "he's just a really nice guy... and you don't see that much with politicians these days."  My first thought was - he has no chance, then.

As a European, I am really amazed that Haley seems to be one of the more reasonable options and one that seems to have a real agenda.

[Josh]

Trump indicted for seven charges, including conspiracy, in connection to the documents found in maralago.

[Skywalkre]

Huh... I'm not surprised he was indicted but rather surprised it came this quickly.  Despite what the MAGA crowd here on TN would want you to believe this case seemed pretty damning from the get-go (and it sounds like it has only gotten worse).  Now I'm curious when we'll hear something from the GA case.

[Josh]

The NY case seems frivolous but this one seems pretty open and shut given the mounting evidence that Trump knowingly tried to conceal the fact he still had classified documents that he knew he shouldn’t retain. The GA case I’d think might be harder to prove in a court of law.

 

I don’t think this will change his polling numbers at all, however.

Edited June 9 by Josh

[Josh]

On 6/7/2023 at 9:33 PM, Skywalkre said:

Will he really be too old by then?  He doesn't come across as frail as Biden.  While old... I'm afraid he could be around for another decade or more (and running that entire time).  His hubris and all... we could see him for many election cycles to come.

If he loses again it seems incredibly unlikely he can come back again, even if voters were willing to overlook his age, which IMO seems doubtful. Plus it seems likely he is under house arrest if he doesn’t win.

[Josh]

And right on cue, Desantis defends Trump by saying the DOJ is weaponized instead of taking the opportunity to slam Trump for being an irresponsible fuck who intentionally kept classified docs either for vanity or because he thought he could sell them later (he has mentions the exact dollar amount Nixon got for his docs pre presidential doc act - because of course everything is just a dollar value to him).

 

This is why Trump is guaranteed to win the nomination…because the entire GOP establishment, even his competitors , never stopped papering over his bullshit and rewriting history to make all of his failings somehow the media or democrats fault.

Edited June 9 by Josh

[DKTanker]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

And right on cue, Desantis defends Trump by saying the DOJ is weaponized instead of taking the opportunity to slam Trump for being an irresponsible fuck who intentionally kept classified docs either for vanity or because he thought he could sell them later (he has mentions the exact dollar amount Nixon got for his docs pre presidential doc act - because of course everything is just a dollar value to him).

 

This is why Trump is guaranteed to win the nomination…because the entire GOP establishment, even his competitors , never stopped papering over his bullshit and rewriting history to make all of his failings somehow the media or democrats fault.

If your Stasi from the Hoover building have their way, Trump will have been executed by this time next year.  So how exactly will he win the GOP nomination?  Being dead and all.

I've noticed you give your child molesting leader a pass when it comes to classified documents not to mention at least $5 million received in bribes from foreign nationals.

[Josh]

11 minutes ago, DKTanker said:

If your Stasi from the Hoover building have their way, Trump will have been executed by this time next year.  So how exactly will he win the GOP nomination?  Being dead and all.

If Trump ends up dead from a bullet, I owe you a coke. It seems far more likely to me he doesn't do any time even if convicted - I suspect he just gets an ankle bracelet, despite all indications he fragrantly broke the law and endangered national security.

11 minutes ago, DKTanker said:

I've noticed you give your child molesting leader a pass when it comes to classified documents not to mention at least $5 million received in bribes from foreign nationals.

An absolute false equivalency. Biden and Pence both were found to have classified documents; both of them immediately returned them without so much as being subpoenaed. Trump was contacted numerous times to return documents and had a lawyer sign a statement that no documents remained *after* being subpoenaed. So right off the bat his transgressions are completely different than Biden/Pence - he was failing to cooperate. And some of the charges made against him - obstruction, conspiracy among them - make it clear that the special council is also quite convinced he can prove that Trump and his minions (conspiracy) explicitly tried to hide the documents from the government and prevent them from being recovered. The leaks in the media that Trump is on tape confessing he has classified docs and that staff at Mara Lago moved boxes around and that Trump's lawyers weren't allowed to check his office for docs would tend to point to his guilt in this regard. Presumably all evidence against Trump will be revealed at trial.

If Biden is guilty of child molestation and bribery, presumably the GOP House investigators will release a report to that effect with recommendations to the DoJ. I wait with baited breath.

Edited June 9 by Josh

[DKTanker]

10 hours ago, Josh said:

If Biden is guilty of child molestation and bribery, presumably the GOP House investigators will release a report to that effect with recommendations to the DoJ. I wait with baited breath.

FBI already quashed the child molestation charge by arresting a journalist found to be in possession of Ashley Biden's diary in which she described being forced to take showers with Daddy Dearest.

Bated breath, not baited breath.  Just where do you think the House investigators got the information about Joe Biden receiving a $5million bribe to convince Ukraine President Poroshenko to fire Ukraine General Prosecutor Victor Shokin?  From the FBI, the Federal Bureau of Intimidation, the jackboot squad of the Department of Justice.  They shouldn't have to recommend anything to the DoJ, the DoJ has the information. Information and evidence they are trying to bury.  You really need to keep up.

[rmgill]

On 6/8/2023 at 9:25 PM, Skywalkre said:

Huh... I'm not surprised he was indicted but rather surprised it came this quickly.  Despite what the MAGA crowd here on TN would want you to believe this case seemed pretty damning from the get-go (and it sounds like it has only gotten worse).  Now I'm curious when we'll hear something from the GA case.

I am still waiting for the Trans the kids crowd to explain Biden. 

[Josh]

On 6/9/2023 at 5:58 PM, DKTanker said:

Bated breath, not bated breath.  Just where do you think the House investigators got the information about Joe Biden receiving a $5million bribe to convince Ukraine President Poroshenko to fire Ukraine General Prosecutor Victor Shokin?  From the FBI, the Federal Bureau of Intimidation, the jackboot squad of the Department of Justice.  They shouldn't have to recommend anything to the DoJ, the DoJ has the information. Information and evidence they are trying to bury.  You really need to keep up.

The only references to an FBI investigation of Biden for $5 million dollars is this:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-allegedly-paid-5-million-by-burisma-executive.amp

 

It states the following: 

“Fox News Digital did not see the form but was briefed from several sources “

“An FD-1023 form is used by FBI agents to disclose *unverified* reporting from confidential human sources.”

 

in other words, it could easily be a total fabrication by Faux or by the FBI source. Presumably you don’t believe every charge WAPO brings against Trump either?

Edited June 11 by Josh

[rmgill]

Josh, now you want to qualify what FBI forms posit? 

[DKTanker]

4 hours ago, rmgill said:

Josh, now you want to qualify what FBI forms posit? 

It's a crime when done by a Republican.  For a Democrat it isn't merely a badge of honor to be corrupt but, simply a means to the righteous end.

[Josh]

17 hours ago, rmgill said:

Josh, now you want to qualify what FBI forms posit? 

I am merely quoting the Fox article, which posted that definition of the form. Feel free to post any other articles concerning the bribery issue if they present more evidence.

[Ivanhoe]