U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!

[BansheeOne]

 

[Josh]

It is kinda surprising that the 2020 rematch no one in either party really wants is going to happen anyway due to quirks in the primary system and political culture.

[R011]

18 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

That was likely a troll post by seahawk.  When it comes to US anything it's best to just ignore his comments.  "Do not feed the trolls" as they used to say...

A suggested improvement in your post.

[seahawk]

15 hours ago, R011 said:

A suggested improvement in your post.

That is fine by me, but allow me one question. If you do not believe Trump will crush Biden, a president with constantly declining approval ratings and surely not a president able to energize the people to support him, why would you nominate Trump?

Biden should be a dead duck, but it seems like both republican front runners are so alienating to large parts of the population, that they will have a hard time (according to their own supporters) to beat Biden. Is this then not the time to ask: What is wrong with the Republican party?

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, seahawk said:

That is fine by me, but allow me one question. If you do not believe Trump will crush Biden, a president with constantly declining approval ratings and surely not a president able to energize the people to support him, why would you nominate Trump?

Biden should be a dead duck, but it seems like both republican front runners are so alienating to large parts of the population, that they will have a hard time (according to their own supporters) to beat Biden. Is this then not the time to ask: What is wrong with the Republican party?

Because its about maintaining the existing political culture, not about ensuring anything better? As a Brit, I totally get that. Both major parties have done it more than once.

[Josh]

10 hours ago, seahawk said:

That is fine by me, but allow me one question. If you do not believe Trump will crush Biden, a president with constantly declining approval ratings and surely not a president able to energize the people to support him, why would you nominate Trump?

Biden should be a dead duck, but it seems like both republican front runners are so alienating to large parts of the population, that they will have a hard time (according to their own supporters) to beat Biden. Is this then not the time to ask: What is wrong with the Republican party?

IMO, it seems like the Republican party has staked out cultural positions that are broadly unpopular with the voting body (gun control, abortions, sexual identity) and then taken them to extremes to the point of ridicule. However you feel about the state of race relations or LGBTwhatevers, referring to that disagreement as a "woke mind virus", which is now a mainstream term uttered by GOP presidential candidates, makes it sound more like Red Scare style hysteria then a disagreement in policy or cultural norms.

[Skywalkre]

On 5/1/2023 at 4:12 AM, BansheeOne said:

 

A pundit brought up a good point this last weekend - folks keep talking like Trump will run in '24 and that's it.  There's nothing out there to indicate if he loses again that he'd be done.  With his grip on the Rs we could see Trump being the nominee up until he dies.    The only thing that would stop this would be if the GA or Fed investigations net a conviction (but that could be years away).

Edited May 2, 2023 by Skywalkre

[Stuart Galbraith]

Should be a Democrat home run till about 2040 then. How old will Biden be then?

 

[Angrybk]

On 5/1/2023 at 9:04 AM, Josh said:

It is kinda surprising that the 2020 rematch no one in either party really wants is going to happen anyway due to quirks in the primary system and political culture.

Not sure that's correct -- Trump's still by far the most popular candidate among the Republican rank and file so it's natural that he'll probably be the Republican nominee. Likewise with Biden and the Dems, although that's because basically nobody else of note is running (RFK LOL).

[Josh]

19 minutes ago, Angrybk said:

Not sure that's correct -- Trump's still by far the most popular candidate among the Republican rank and file so it's natural that he'll probably be the Republican nominee. Likewise with Biden and the Dems, although that's because basically nobody else of note is running (RFK LOL).

The winner take all primary system seems to ensure that Trump will win IMO, because Desantis has staked out all the lanes to the right of Trump and the never Trump faction will likely avoid him for that reason and go Niki, leaving Trump as the 30-40% middle porridge even if Desantis makes a big come back.

For the Dems part, the fact Biden is the incumbent pretty much ends that argument (though that would likely be true for any GOP incumbent as well).

For what its worth, I think Niki would wipe the floor with Biden if there's any way she could win the primary.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Josh

[NickM]

On 5/1/2023 at 4:12 AM, BansheeOne said:

 

Not sure what to make of the pic...especially of the rendition of the God/Emperor 

[Angrybk]

1 minute ago, Josh said:

The winner take all primary system seems to ensure that Trump will win IMO, because Desantis has staked out all the lanes to the right of Trump and the never Trump faction will likely avoid him for that reason and go Niki, leaving Trump as the 30-40% middle porridge even if Desantis makes a big come back.

For what its worth, I think Niki would wipe the floor with Biden if there's any way she could win the primary.

Yeah, agree with that, although I can't see anybody but Trump even getting to 30-40 percent -- maybe Trump gets convicted but IMHO not even that would matter much. I still think Trump's political stances (such as they exist) really resonate with the Republican rank and file more than "traditional" Republicanism. 

One dynamic I'm curious about is the Fox News fallout, after Fox News senior execs were fully caught laughing their asses off at their audience and how stupid they were for believing the election-fraud stuff they were peddling, and how it eventually really freaked them out. 

https://news.yahoo.com/tucker-carlson-producer-describes-audience-160842506.html

 

Quote

“Might wanna address this, but this stuff is so f****** insane. Vote rigging to the tune of millions? C’mon,” he wrote.

Alex Pfeiffer, a producer working for Mr Carlson at the time but who has now left Fox, wrote back that “it is so insane but our viewers believe it so addressing again how her stupid Venezuela affidavit isn’t proof might insult them”.

Mr Shah suggested that Carlson mention the affidavit, saying it was “not new info, not proof” and then “pivot to being deferential”.

Mr Pfeiffer later added: “One funny thing. Dominion was used in Ohio and Florida. Trump won them. Did they forget to rig those or all part of the plan?”

Mr Shah later asked Mr Pfeiffer if he had seen that Newsmax host Greg Kelly “came after you?”

“Yeah,” Mr Pfeiffer said. “This whole thing is surreal. Like negotiating with terrorists, but especially dumb ones. Cousin f****** types not saudi royalty.”

 

 

[NickM]

1 minute ago, Angrybk said:

Yeah, agree with that, although I can't see anybody but Trump even getting to 30-40 percent -- maybe Trump gets convicted but IMHO not even that would matter much. I still think Trump's political stances (such as they exist) really resonate with the Republican rank and file more than "traditional" Republicanism. 

One dynamic I'm curious about is the Fox News fallout, after Fox News senior execs were fully caught laughing their asses off at their audience and how stupid they were for believing the election-fraud stuff they were peddling, and how it eventually really freaked them out. 

https://news.yahoo.com/tucker-carlson-producer-describes-audience-160842506.html

 

 

 

Sure. No "fraud", just the outcome "reinforced", for our own good.

[Josh]

49 minutes ago, Angrybk said:

One dynamic I'm curious about is the Fox News fallout, after Fox News senior execs were fully caught laughing their asses off at their audience and how stupid they were for believing the election-fraud stuff they were peddling, and how it eventually really freaked them out. 

https://news.yahoo.com/tucker-carlson-producer-describes-audience-160842506.html

 

IMO, Fox News watchers aren't going to think anything of it because they have never heard it. You know who didn't mention that story at all? Fox News. Fox News has inoculated its audience against anything Fox News doesn't want them to hear by simply saying every other media source to the left of them is lying (notably something the rest of the MSM does not do to other outlets, including Fox News). Unless News Max or OANN ran that story, the viewership of Fox is never going to hear it, let alone believe it. Their ratings seem largely unperturbed; if anything I think they took more of a hit from firing Tucker.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Josh

[Josh]

49 minutes ago, NickM said:

Sure. No "fraud", just the outcome "reinforced", for our own good.

That does appear to be what all of the anchors and executives at Fox News believed, yes.

[DB]

2 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

A pundit brought up a good point this last weekend - folks keep talking like Trump will run in '24 and that's it.  There's nothing out there to indicate if he loses again that he'd be done.  With his grip on the Rs we could see Trump being the nominee up until he dies.    The only thing that would stop this would be if the GA or Fed investigations net a conviction (but that could be years away).

the thing is, trump could choose to run as an independent even if he loses the Republican nomination. That would likely ruin the official Rep. candidate's chances as well.

[Angrybk]

1 hour ago, DB said:

the thing is, trump could choose to run as an independent even if he loses the Republican nomination. That would likely ruin the official Rep. candidate's chances as well.

Best Dem outcome would be for desantis to win the nom and for trump to run as an independent, but this is highly unlikely. 

[Josh]

Disney spikes the ball right before Desantis donor meetings.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/business/disney-ron-desantis-florida.html

 

I can understand why he picked this fight for anti woke publicity reasons, but why he carried it on after the first volley baffles me. Why would you want to have a massive public judicial fight with one of the largest media companies in the US that is based in your state?

I was rooting for Trump because I thought he was less electable than Desantis and Biden is the weakest Dem candidate since at least Dukakis, but post six month ban and Disney own goal I’m agnostic. I think Desantis and Trump will roughly have the same effect of mobilizing Dem voters despite having a shitty alternative. Plus a Desantis win opens up all sorts of opportunities for Trump to fuck it up. I never thought I’d say this post Jan 6th, but Trump is probably the best realistically bet for the GOP to win in 2024.

Though that ignores what I consider unrealistic opinions: Niki would wipe the floor with Biden if the GOP voter base would give her the time of day.

[Skywalkre]

26 minutes ago, Josh said:

Though that ignores what I consider unrealistic opinions: Niki would wipe the floor with Biden if the GOP voter base would give her the time of day.

I asked this in the Trump thread and that post got ignored... but why in the world do Rs seem to actively not want to learn about these other candidates?  I asked about Haley when she first announced her candidacy and got no substantial answer as to why she wasn't a good candidate.  It was mostly crickets.

Meanwhile Trump has a laundry list of issues, even if you like him, yet he still maintains that support.

Why...?

Does your average R voter not even care about substance and policy anymore?  Are there motivations solely driven by spite toward the Ds? 

[Josh]

As far as I can tell, the trump movement is ironically more about feelings than reality. A bunch of snowflakes assume they are the majority and are making no course corrections.

in more relevant news than me beating a dead horse, Tim Scott has made it official.

 

 

[DKTanker]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

Disney spikes the ball right before Desantis donor meetings.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/business/disney-ron-desantis-florida.html

Pure bullshit.  Iger has been talking about cancelling the move since last fall citing the need to stop the hemorrhaging of money and separating the creative department from the studios by the width of a continent.  It didn't help that most of the 2000 affected employees in California didn't want to relocate to Florida.

Do yourself a favor and pry your head out of the Leftist and in this case Trumpist, echo chamber.  I find it rather interesting that the Left, and Trump, have come to an agreement that cronyism is the way forward.  He's also pro-Trans-absurdity, and apparently he's good with abortion on demand.  It's almost like he's trying to get to the left of Joe Biden.

[NickM]

2 minutes ago, DKTanker said:

Pure bullshit.  Iger has been talking about cancelling the move since last fall citing the need to stop the hemorrhaging of money and separating the creative department from the studios by the width of a continent.  It didn't help that most of the 2000 affected employees in California didn't want to relocate to Florida.

Do yourself a favor and pry your head out of the Leftist and in this case Trumpist, echo chamber.  I find it rather interesting that the Left, and Trump, have come to an agreement that cronyism is the way forward.  He's also pro-Trans-absurdity, and apparently he's good with abortion on demand.  It's almost like he's trying to get to the left of Joe Biden.

Not to mention a half billion dollar cost overrun 

[rmgill]

16 hours ago, DKTanker said:

Pure bullshit.  Iger has been talking about cancelling the move since last fall citing the need to stop the hemorrhaging of money and separating the creative department from the studios by the width of a continent. 

He’s just mad they almost cancelled Howard. 

[Josh]

On 5/19/2023 at 6:00 PM, DKTanker said:

Pure bullshit.  Iger has been talking about cancelling the move since last fall citing the need to stop the hemorrhaging of money and separating the creative department from the studios by the width of a continent.  It didn't help that most of the 2000 affected employees in California didn't want to relocate to Florida.

Do yourself a favor and pry your head out of the Leftist and in this case Trumpist, echo chamber.  I find it rather interesting that the Left, and Trump, have come to an agreement that cronyism is the way forward.  He's also pro-Trans-absurdity, and apparently he's good with abortion on demand.  It's almost like he's trying to get to the left of Joe Biden.

The decision was coming regardless for non political related reasons, but the timing seemed to be to intentionally troll Desantis. I think we're going to see a lot more of this behavior going forward and it seems puzzling why he started the beef.

I'm all about the GOP losing and certainly not Trump in particular. I'm torn between wanting Trump to continue to tear the GOP apart and the incredibly high stakes risk of him actually winning given the absolutely abysmal weakness of Biden. But I am resigned to him winning the nomination because that's where the current numbers and historical precedents tend to place a candidate with his polling numbers. And if anything, more GOP candidates are just continuing to throw in their hat and split the vote 2016 style.

Desantis' hard tack right I think ultimately will split the anti Trump GOP vote. To the extent most GOP is anti Trump, it isn't because he was an immoral, wildly corrupt, irresponsible dumpster fire of a president who shows a perfect wiliness to trample the constitution and destroy the US economy for his own benefit. They simply are afraid he'll lose again. I think Desantis is trying so hard to own the libs to attract Trump voters that he's tearing away at any credibility he has of winning the general, which was the major attraction of anti-Trump voters (as opposed to Never Trump voters) in the first place.

[DKTanker]

20 minutes ago, Josh said:

The decision was coming regardless for non political related reasons, but the timing seemed to be to intentionally troll Desantis. I think we're going to see a lot more of this behavior going forward and it seems puzzling why he started the beef.

First, DeSantis didn't start the beef.  It was Disney that mounted a political campaign against the State of Florida.  In any case, the State of Florida, through the leadership of Ron DeSantis, has passed laws to protect the children of Florida from child grooming perverts of the left.  The people of Florida overwhelmingly thought this a good thing.  Parents across the nation, when told the truth about those laws, also think those laws are noble and righteous.

If you want to diddle your own children and subject them to grooming techniques, buy them "tuck" friendly undergarments, advise them to rip out their ovaries and slash off their beans and franks...well, don't, but if your base instincts force you to do it, at least keep it within your own bloodline so that your progeny cannot reproduce and infect the next generation.

If you think that is a "hard" right position, I fear for the future of our once great nation.  That said, you must take solace in the fact that you and Trump share the same space regarding trans-absurdity, grooming children, and abortion on demand through birth.

Edited May 23, 2023 by DKTanker