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U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!


Skywalkre

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5 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

But, but, but, but!  Moving past the typical TN whataboutisms... helps us out.  Why are Rs set on self-sabotaging themselves in '24?  Do you disagree with Josh's assessment as to why they're sticking with a candidate who was largely responsible for throwing away what should have been a tsunami of R victories back in the midterms?  If so, what's the reasoning?

Who is they?  And by the way, good to see you're finally peeking out of your leftist closet.

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5 hours ago, urbanoid said:

I think he never had a chance anyway. About the only conceivable scenario is Trump backing out, which as we know can't really happen. 

Pretty early to be calling the results of the game. We are basically in the pre-season. 

Lots of things could happen in the next year.

Trump could have serious health problems.  Or die.

Trump could get convicted and do hard times. (Not likely) While in prison he could learn to play the guitar and sing, and have a killer rendition  of "Folsom Prison Blues" 

Trump has under 50 % of likely Republican Primary voters. The Republicans could come to their senses and unite behind some one other than Trump.

There are a myriad of other scenarios where Trump doesn't get the nomination. 

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Ok, so here is a prediction. Trump runs against Biden, halfway through Biden pegs out through a heart attack when his son is indicted for high treason or whatever they can cook up. Trump easily beats the Kamala Harris/AOC Ticket, then Trump is indicted for high treason (or whatever they can cook up) and his VP, Jewish Space Lasers becomes President.

Well with the world as crazy as it is, that looks like a pretty moderate outcome to me.

 

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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Read a couple articles theorizing that Tucker could run, now that he’s got lots of free time. It’s interesting if frightening idea. He has the money and name recognition to make it happen, though I get the impression he wouldn’t want to spend the work and money for it and have that level of responsibility. He’d have to drive in the same lane as trump and beat him at his own game, which besides being exhausting would run up against the Desantis problem.

Edited by Josh
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2 hours ago, seahawk said:

Trump will crush Biden.

It seems extremely unlikely anyone gets crushed in this polarized day and age. The last two elections were decided by 80,000-100,000 voters in 3-4 states. That said, it seems unlikely Trump would do much better a second time around with Jan 6th and Dobbs hanging over his head.

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2 hours ago, Josh said:

Read a couple articles theorizing that Tucker could run, now that he’s got lots of free time. It’s interesting if frightening idea. He has the money and name recognition to make it happen, though I get the impression he wouldn’t want to spend the work and money for it and have that level of responsibility. He’d have drive in the same lane as trump and beat him at his own game, which besides being exhausting would run up against the Desantis problem.

I can see him playing Steve Bannon to someone that would, perhaps not this time but next.

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Actually that seems most likely now that I think about it. I can’t see him playing second fiddle to anyone else and he doesn’t need the money. He could easily go the podcast route and not need any infrastructure or advertising to broadcast whatever he felt like.

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2 hours ago, rmgill said:

I predict Tucker doing an independent show ala Dave Rubin or perhaps going to the Daily Wire. 

With Shapiro?

I would no hold my breath.

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2 hours ago, Josh said:

Actually that seems most likely now that I think about it. I can’t see him playing second fiddle to anyone else and he doesn’t need the money. He could easily go the podcast route and not need any infrastructure or advertising to broadcast whatever he felt like.

He could also make a lot of money doing product promos. I signed up for Parler for shits and giggles and the spam I get is amazing. An “anti-woke” women’s skincare company, a holster that claims to let you stuff 46 rounds of ammo into your swimsuit (lots of stuff to uh unpack there) and a flashlight taser that was used to fight off a “violent panhandler.”

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6 hours ago, sunday said:

With Shapiro?

I would no hold my breath.

With? No. As one of the other shows? Yes. 
 

 

Edited by rmgill
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I'm going to guess he's looking for a easier workload than he had a Fox (in terms of hours per week). 

People keep talking about him going to a Twitter "channel" but I don't see short/fast quipping as his style. 

 

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Kilmeade seems to have flamed out already. I’ve not even heard of the guy they are going to run this week; that seems unlikely to work out.

Fun fact I’d never heard of; Desantis was married is Disneyland. I can only assume Trump hasn’t heard of that either because I’d have thought he’d go to town on that by now.

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On 4/26/2023 at 2:20 PM, DKTanker said:

Who is they?

You're really struggling to understand what was meant there?

Republicans... why do they seem set on nominating Trump when he has almost no chance to win and after the terrible showing in the '22 midterms can be pointed directly to his involvement in picking so many terrible candidates and still sticking to this ridiculous notion of a stolen election?

Is that clear enough?  Would love to know the answer.

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On 4/27/2023 at 1:20 AM, Josh said:

It seems extremely unlikely anyone gets crushed in this polarized day and age. The last two elections were decided by 80,000-100,000 voters in 3-4 states. That said, it seems unlikely Trump would do much better a second time around with Jan 6th and Dobbs hanging over his head.

That was likely a troll post by seahawk.  When it comes to US anything it's best to just ignore his comments.  "Do not feed the trolls" as they used to say...

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On 4/26/2023 at 7:06 PM, 17thfabn said:

Pretty early to be calling the results of the game. We are basically in the pre-season. 

Lots of things could happen in the next year.

Trump could have serious health problems.  Or die.

Trump could get convicted and do hard times. (Not likely) While in prison he could learn to play the guitar and sing, and have a killer rendition  of "Folsom Prison Blues" 

Trump has under 50 % of likely Republican Primary voters. The Republicans could come to their senses and unite behind some one other than Trump.

There are a myriad of other scenarios where Trump doesn't get the nomination. 

When I was looking back at the early polls 10-20 years ago I never saw an example of a candidate with single digit polling at the start of the campaign pull out the win.  As I mentioned in a different post even Obama was polling pretty damn good, just a few points behind Clinton depending on the poll, at the start of their campaign season.

So with that in mind... there are just two candidates for the Rs right now - Trump and DeSantis.  Trump is the clear leader so far but DeSantis is still polling high enough where it appears he has a chance.

As for Trump... his legal issues won't happen soon enough to interrupt his candidacy (this initial case won't meet up again in court/go to trial til later this year and early next year).  The other two cases are far more serious but given how slow our court system moves they might not land til mid campaign season (and then it'll just be the charges).

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1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

You're really struggling to understand what was meant there?

Republicans... why do they seem set on nominating Trump when he has almost no chance to win and after the terrible showing in the '22 midterms can be pointed directly to his involvement in picking so many terrible candidates and still sticking to this ridiculous notion of a stolen election?

Is that clear enough?  Would love to know the answer.

I think there is a dedicated following of Orange cultists and it is yet very early.  This time in 2015 the GOP nomination was Jeb Bush's to lose.  And he did.  A lot can happen, not least of which is DeSantis officially declaring his intentions, before Trump is anointed the GOP nominee.  That said, I'm sure Trump will find he has a boat load of allies on the left intentionally keeping him in the news as the perpetual victim.  I wouldn't be so sure Trump has as many allies on the right.

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On 4/29/2023 at 4:22 PM, Josh said:

Kilmeade seems to have flamed out already. I’ve not even heard of the guy they are going to run this week; that seems unlikely to work out.

I haven't watched any FNC for awhile, but various parties have commented on the "I don't want to be here" vibe from the fill-ins. 

I usta watch Red Eye a lot, but of late the only FNC fodder that catches my eye was Carlson. 

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9 hours ago, DKTanker said:

I think there is a dedicated following of Orange cultists and it is yet very early.  This time in 2015 the GOP nomination was Jeb Bush's to lose.  And he did.  A lot can happen, not least of which is DeSantis officially declaring his intentions, before Trump is anointed the GOP nominee.  That said, I'm sure Trump will find he has a boat load of allies on the left intentionally keeping him in the news as the perpetual victim.  I wouldn't be so sure Trump has as many allies on the right.

I read a surprisingly good article by CNN about Desantis choices (well the second half; the first was a comparison of poll numbers between him and JFK jr). It pointed out that Desantis is trying to outflank Trump to the right with his culture war and abortion stance, and that the majority of anti-Trump is more moderate GOP not more right. The more right wing stance is also eating away at the notion that he is more electable as well, and some of the most recent polls have his numbers falling against Biden in a one on one.

And IMO no one else in this race matters.

IMO barring some major health problem this an 80-90% Trump nomination.

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