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U.S. Presidential Primaries 2024!


Skywalkre

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Here we go again...

On the R side Trump, having announced his candidacy last year, just recently had his first real campaign event.  DeSantis is largely expected to enter the race as well but hasn't made it official yet.  Nikki Haley just made her official announcement for a POTUS run but the polls show she has a lot of work to do to catch up.  Mike Pence is also expected to enter the race but hasn't made it official yet.

On the D side Biden is largely expected to run again... despite polling coming out recently showing over 60% of Ds don't want him to run and can't think of anything that his administration has accomplished in two years.

My early prediction - despite the poor showing by MAGA candidates in the general election last Nov internal polling for the Rs still show that crowd is a sizable, if not still the, dominant presence in the R party.  The concern is several R challengers to Trump will just dilute the opposition and hand the nomination to him leaving us with yet again Trump v Biden... to the disdain of the overwhelming majority of Americans.  /sigh

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Quoting Murph from the 'Because Trump 2.0' thread:

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Look at her record.  Sorry, she is not anything like a real Desantis/Trump conservative.  I put her in the Willard Romney wing of the party, or perhaps the George W. Bush wing.  I really don't want those types any longer, I want R's who use the Demon-rat playbook, take no prisoners, and fight just a viciously as the left.  No more kindler gentler, all that does is get you rolled.  

The various scoring websites I'm seeing are just showing ratings for current politicians.  Her wiki page is fairly sparse and seems to indicate a moderate R record.  Not a lot there to hold against her... but also not a lot there to throw in behind her.

One of the takeaways from this last election, as highlighted in that Koch bros memo someone linked to, is that you have to look at how your candidate will do in the general election.  The MAGA crowd got manhandled last general election... and a lot of the stuff used against them will likely work still in '24.  I think a majority of Americans care less about optics and finally want some substance.  Maybe that could help DeSantis (though this AP fight he's picked isn't helping) and maybe it could help Haley, who as mentioned seems to be far more mature in how she handles herself.

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Yes it is almost two years to the 2024 election. But starting this summer you will see more moves by the potential candidates. 

On the Republican side:

Of course every one knows that former President Trump is running.

Former South Carolina Governor and former U.S. UN Ambassador Nimrata "Nikki" Haley has announced she is running:

https://apnews.com/article/nikki-haley-running-for-president-f28052019e8ac3846cd125b3d9614d4f

Florida Governor DeSantis is widely expected to run for the nomination and is seen as the strongest challenger to Trump for the nomination. 

Former Vice President Pence is also said to be looking at running. Who does he appeal to?

On the Democrat side President Biden is expected to run again in 2024. If he in fact runs he is expected to breeze to the Democratic Party nomination. 

If for some reason Biden decides not to run, for instance a health problem? Talk is  the duo from California, the California Governor and the current V.P. are seen as front runners.

 

 

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One thing very interesting on the Democrat side is the attempt to rearrange the primary/ caucus schedule. Instead of Iowa being the 1st caucus and New Hampshire being the 1st primary there would be a new order. Instead South Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada would go 1st. To me it makes a lot of sense. Either party wants the candidate that is most likely to win the general election to be  their nominee. New Hampshire & Iowa are not very representative of the U.S.'s demographics. What % of U.S. citizens even know that New Hampshire is a state? 

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/04/1154084669/democrats-vote-to-upend-presidential-primary-calendar-for-2024-but-challenges-pe

 

 

 

 

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Who is most popular with Republicans? Depends on the poll.

Monmounth has DeSantis and Trump tied.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_020923/

Fox News has Trump well ahead of DeSantis

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-tops-desantis-fresh-2024-gop-presidential-primary-poll-potential-candidates-single-digits

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I'm sorry Skywalker, I didn't see the thread you had created, when I started a similar thread this evening. Can we have the all seeing all knowing all powerful all good Moderators combine them?

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/48010-us-presidential-primaries-2024/#comment-1658953

 

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On 2/14/2023 at 2:25 PM, Skywalkre said:

One of the takeaways from this last election, as highlighted in that Koch bros memo someone linked to, is that you have to look at how your candidate will do in the general election.  The MAGA crowd got manhandled last general election... and a lot of the stuff used against them will likely work still in '24.  I think a majority of Americans care less about optics and finally want some substance.  Maybe that could help DeSantis (though this AP fight he's picked isn't helping) and maybe it could help Haley, who as mentioned seems to be far more mature in how she handles herself.

I like former Governor Haley. She comes across as mature and polished.

My gut feeling is she won't get the nomination. I see her as a top pick for Vice President. If not a VP pick, a possible secretary of state or other high cabinet position. 

DeSantis would be my pick for the Republican nomination right now. He stands up and fights with out being too Trumpish. The fight with AP studies I admit I don't have an in depth knowledge of. Did he in fact pick a fight with them? Or did AP make changes that needed to be brought to light? 

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3 hours ago, DB said:

Why would any sane woman go for VP after the treatment Sarah Palin got from Ds during and then Rs afterwards?

i think Mrs. Haley is better equipped to handle verbal sparing than Mrs. Palin.

I wonder if the press will recognize that Mrs. Haley is both a female and a minority and "how historic" this would be if she got the nomination. Or does that only matter for Democrats?

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3 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

i think Mrs. Haley is better equipped to handle verbal sparing than Mrs. Palin.

I wonder if the press will recognize that Mrs. Haley is both a female and a minority and "how historic" this would be if she got the nomination. Or does that only matter for Democrats?

Only matters for Democrats.  Besides, South Asians, indeed all Asians, are White. and Republican women are Stepford wifes, not representative of real, free thinking women.

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20 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

The fight with AP studies I admit I don't have an in depth knowledge of. Did he in fact pick a fight with them? Or did AP make changes that needed to be brought to light? 

As governor, he is in fact responsible for the material being taught in public schools. He issued objections to certain material to the College Board. They removed the material in question, claimed the removal had nothing to do with the governor's objections, then apparently got the OPORD to switch their statements to align with the left wing's narrative.

Smart thing to do would be to stop framing the situation as the MSM does, and look at it from the point of view of a general customer/vendor relationship.

I guess if you insist on the fight metaphor, DeSantis is the little guy picking a fight with authoritarian (and probably antisemitic) thugs.

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7 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well, Biden doest really seem to have what it takes to win against Liberals, judging by how many times he ran for President. :D

For some one who was supposed to be a centrist he is governing pretty hard left. So with Biden it was a he wins the presidency and the left wins control of him.

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On 2/16/2023 at 10:15 AM, 17thfabn said:

I like former Governor Haley. She comes across as mature and polished.

My gut feeling is she won't get the nomination. I see her as a top pick for Vice President. If not a VP pick, a possible secretary of state or other high cabinet position. 

DeSantis would be my pick for the Republican nomination right now. He stands up and fights with out being too Trumpish. The fight with AP studies I admit I don't have an in depth knowledge of. Did he in fact pick a fight with them? Or did AP make changes that needed to be brought to light? 

Seen several pieces on Haley's announcement.  I'm kind of surprised by this given we are so far out, her polling is really low right now (like... 2%?), and there are definitely more newsworthy stories going on at the moment (Ukraine still, the earthquake in Turkey/Syria, etc.).  The only thing I can think of is subconsciously these news agencies are pushing to give coverage to someone that isn't Trump in hopes it helps (or maybe it's conscious... a lot of these news organizations realized after the '16 election that their overwhelming negative coverage of Trump was actually a good thing for him).

One consistent thing I keep hearing is the current breakdown of the R party.  About 30% are diehard MAGA-Trumpers... so much so that if Trump were to run as an Independent these voters would show up, split the R vote, and hand the election to Biden.  About 10% are diehard never-Trumpers.  The remaining 60% are pro-ish Trump but don't want him to run and would rather not vote for him.

A lot to take away from that.  For starters it's worrisome to me the diehard Trump camp is still that large and the diehard never-Trump camp is still that small.  Then you have that majority which given how they lean make many think DeSantis will get the nomination once he finally goes all in (but... why hasn't he yet is the question many are asking).  This is the problem facing all other candidates that have announced (Haley) or are likely to (Pence and Tim Scott) - none of these candidates are in the league of being Trump-ish and instead would appear to be more appealing to that small 10% of the R party.

That's not to say these other candidates wouldn't be a better option in the general election... but that's irrelevant if they can't get there in the first place.

I know we're way far out... but so far I'm seeing a tough road for the Rs and it'll mostly be their own fault (just like what we saw in the midterms).

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1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

Seen several pieces on Haley's announcement.  I'm kind of surprised by this given we are so far out, her polling is really low right now (like... 2%?), and there are definitely more newsworthy stories going on at the moment (Ukraine still, the earthquake in Turkey/Syria, etc.). 

One consistent thing I keep hearing is the current breakdown of the R party.  About 30% are diehard MAGA-Trumpers... so much so that if Trump were to run as an Independent these voters would show up, split the R vote, and hand the election to Biden.  About 10% are diehard never-Trumpers.  The remaining 60% are pro-ish Trump but don't want him to run and would rather not vote for him.

I can only see two reasons for Haley running. Either she wants to be VP nominee or a cabinet member in a possible Republican administration. Or If I was a conspiracy theorist she is a spoiler to split the anti Trump Vote so Trump can repeat 2016 and win with less than a majority due to the vote being fragmented.

I could see Trump running independent if he fails to get the nomination and all but guaranteeing a Democratic Party win. Some states have a rule that if you run in the a party primary you can't run as an independent. Which ones I don't know.

I don't agree with the label you use for the 60% being "pro-ish Trump". I think it is much more complex than that.

Personally  I wish he had never ran in 2016 and wish he would just go away. He is a pretty lousy human being.  On the other hand he is better than former Secretary of State Clinton / President Biden / Vice President Harris. He brought  a lot on himself, yet on the other hand he was treated unfairly. 

A lot of those 30% MEGA Trumpers in my experience seem to be softening in their support for him. 

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Trump being in the race at all helps only the Democratic Leftist Party. The Democrats could run a ham sandwich, or even Joe Biden against GOP nominee Trump, Trump loses. If Trump continues to run he'll tear down every other GOP candidate to secure a pyrrhic GOP nomination. If he doesn't secure the nomination he will have so damaged the GOP and the GOP nominee the Democrats could run a Club Sandwich or Mayor Pete to a win in 2024. And of course if he runs as an independent even the erudite in her own mind, Kamala Harris, could win for the Democrats.

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That's how Biden got elected.  I have lots of lefty friends. Not a single one has ever been enthusiastic about Biden, but every single one of them would crawl over burning coals to vote against Trump, even if is for a pair of dirty socks.

No one mobilizes the democrat vote like Trump.

 

In the last year I have been surprised to see a lot of my trumpiest friends say that they wished Trump would quietly retire.  I really wish he would, but there is zero chance of that happening.

 

 

Edited by Mikel2
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13 hours ago, DKTanker said:

Trump being in the race at all helps only the Democratic Leftist Party. The Democrats could run a ham sandwich, or even Joe Biden against GOP nominee Trump, Trump loses. If Trump continues to run he'll tear down every other GOP candidate to secure a pyrrhic GOP nomination. If he doesn't secure the nomination he will have so damaged the GOP and the GOP nominee the Democrats could run a Club Sandwich or Mayor Pete to a win in 2024. And of course if he runs as an independent even the erudite in her own mind, Kamala Harris, could win for the Democrats.

This pretty much.  There are plenty of people who will pull the lever for Trump but less than there were in either 2016 or 2020 so he loses.  They literally elected the guy hiding in his basement over him.  It's also illustrative to see what the left thinks if you go through social media.  They honestly believe that Biden is crushing it and that's a sizable minority who aren't just anti-Trump, they are pro-Biden (I rather believe they'd be pro-turnip if it had a D attached to it as it's a team loyalty and not a critically derived one but they still vote).  It's not just that Trump is polarizing it's that he now appears to many of his supporters as being unable to learn from his losses and mistakes.  He also suffers because we have Desantis who is dismantling many leftist bastions in his state.  Trump will always suffer in comparison as he talked a great deal but then frequently caved.  Use Fauci and Blix as an example; he kept them in their jobs and Fauci outlasted him.  I understand the argument that he couldn't move against them without being impeached but when your pitch is "I'll fight and win" and the evidence is that you can't/won't the support softens fast.  

Honestly, I think 2020 broke him in some functional ways.  It pushed his worst traits to the fore and his best traits are in hibernation.  Which means to me that every behavior he had that sabotaged him will be more prevalent and the effective ones will be less on display.  I really don't want to have to settle on a worse and less effective Trump 2.0.

So I fully expect the Republicans to do the same thing they did in 2022 and blow a winnable contest as the same people who lost the last election cycle are still in charge of the next one.  I am frankly resigned to the idea that the best case is to keep a divided government and maybe flip the senate as an outside possibility.  If Trump's challengers can destroy him along the way so that we don't have him in 2026/2028 that will be a bonus.  He isn't going away until his core cheering section gives up on him and they haven't yet.

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2 hours ago, Sardaukar said:

I am kind of interested how DeSantis and Nikki Hayley will do. 

I don't see Haley's candidacy going anywhere. I see the Republican race as being Trump, DeSantis and every one else. And in the every one else category  I don't see   Haley as a major voice. 

I just hope it is not a repeat of 2016 where Trump won the Republican race only because the number of candidates allowed him to win with out a majority.

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If Trump enters the primaries, whoever emerges victories will be badly damaged, as I fear neither he nor his supporters would back down without poring all available dirt on the competition. Some of it will stick and will help the Democrats. If he encourages his core supporters to stay home on election day, it becomes worse. 

Recently I would not put it beyond him, to enjoy the defeat of the Republican candidate if he does not win the primaries.

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On 2/20/2023 at 6:15 PM, 17thfabn said:

I can only see two reasons for Haley running. Either she wants to be VP nominee or a cabinet member in a possible Republican administration. Or If I was a conspiracy theorist she is a spoiler to split the anti Trump Vote so Trump can repeat 2016 and win with less than a majority due to the vote being fragmented.

I could see Trump running independent if he fails to get the nomination and all but guaranteeing a Democratic Party win. Some states have a rule that if you run in the a party primary you can't run as an independent. Which ones I don't know.

I don't agree with the label you use for the 60% being "pro-ish Trump". I think it is much more complex than that.

Personally  I wish he had never ran in 2016 and wish he would just go away. He is a pretty lousy human being.  On the other hand he is better than former Secretary of State Clinton / President Biden / Vice President Harris. He brought  a lot on himself, yet on the other hand he was treated unfairly. 

A lot of those 30% MEGA Trumpers in my experience seem to be softening in their support for him. 

We are WAY early into this whole thing... so I can't fault her for believing she has an outside chance.  In my lifetime the front runners in an open race usually don't win the nomination and she does have one things going for her - she's not Trump.  We've now had 3 elections which have shown his brand is not appealing in the general election.  He won in '16 from an EC victory while losing the popular vote.  He lost handily in '20.  His picks across the country were overwhelmingly defeated in '22 and his involvement helped keep the Senate in D hands and blunting what should have been an R tsunami.  This applies to everyone that's not Trump, though, so when DeSantis finally enters the race she and everyone else will have a tough road ahead of them from what early polling is saying.

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