How useful will Leopard 1 be on modern battlefield?

[Walter_Sobchak]

Forbes is now reporting that Germany has pledged 88 Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine.  (source https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/03/good-gun-thin-armor-the-ukrainian-army-is-getting-leopard-1-tanks/).  Not being an expert on Leopard 1 variants, I am wondering how appropriate this vehicle is for the modern battlefield and does it represent a step up or a step down from the T-64 and T-72 tanks Ukraine is currently operating?  Leopard 1 obviously has less armor and a smaller gun than the older soviet-era tanks in Ukraine.  Are there other qualities of the Leopard 1A5 that may mitigate these disadvantages?  And also, given the nature of the fighting in Ukraine, how much do these differences in armor and firepower actually matter?  

[QOHC32]

Considering Leo-1A5 has almost the same FCS with Leo-2A4 and pretty much identical thermals (WBG-X) only the caliber of the gun seems a disadvantage. But with appropriate ammo an 105mm gun, as we've seen in ODS, can be a decent asset for Ukraine. Sure, its protection was never adequate from start, but after all, every tank can be blown up in Ukraine.

Edited February 5, 2023 by QOHC32

[Arminius]

I wouldn´t want to sit in one ... it´s time has gone by.

[ChuckFan4]

Depending on the ammunition sent.    Leo 1 may not be able to deal with the armor even on late 1970 or early 1980 era T-72, much less current models.    Think of it as more of a medium weight mechanized infantry combat vehicle without the infantry, 

[Ssnake]

The biggest advantage: Available in numbers. Comes with thermal imager. Decent fire control system. The automotive part is reliable. Can lob a variety of HE shells, so it ties in with current Ukrainian doctrine it seems. If sent to places with weak resistance or where it can expect to run into T-62 equipped units, it may actually perform not too badly. It's also a good platform to learn the Leo 2 fire control system.

The advantages end there.

I don't think anyone is expecting miracles. Had they been prepared when they were offered last March, their value would have been substantially higher, but that would have required more political capital than the German chancellor was willing to spend.

[seahawk]

If mixed with Bradleys they could be useful. M2 engage the tanks, Leopards the lighter vehicles.

[Daan]

Any suggestion as to what sorts of ammunition will be provided with these vehicles? Is 105 mm ammunition still manufactured or in stock in Germany?

Elbit in Israel still offers a range: https://elbitsystems.com/product/tank-ammunition-105mm-series/

Presumably Turkey manufactures ammunition for its own needs, though I cannot find further information on it.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Americans were using 105mm in their Stryker FSV, so it should be available. The only question is whether the Biden administration will supply it. Ive no understanding of what is marked as 'escalation' in his personal view.

I guess we are going to find out the answers to some questions we really didnt want to find out in the 1980's. Too bad its not via simulation, which is always the right way to do these things.

[Markus Becker]

88 from one company, the German total is at least 160. 

And it's as useful as the T-62: infinitely more than a more modern tank they don't have. Especially since it already has TI. 

[Renegade334]

Belgians have some Leo 1s that were sold to a private company (OIP Land Systems N.V. - these guys even have old ex-Belgian AMX-13s!) when they were retired from service...but they must be refurbished: 

...And it won't be for free - they have to either be bought back by the Belgian government (and they aren't looking too fondly on OIP's opportunism ATM), or sold directly to Ukraine after securing German assent.

As for the 105mm stockpile, I don't know how much is left in Belgium since they retired the Leo 1 in favor of the Piranha IIIC DF90...which, in turn, will be replaced in two years or thereabouts by the EBRC Jaguar. They do have, on the other hand, companies like MECAR that still do manufacture 105mm ammo (M393E3 HEP-T and 1060A3 APFSDS-T) compatible with the Cockerill turrets.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Renegade334

[Ssnake]

The Belgian MOD wasn't forced to sell the Leo 1s for scrap. OIP took the entrepreneurial risk that they might have bought scrap metal at above market value, and rather than sending them to the smelter, rented a storage facility for years. "OIP's opportunism", my ass. They're just angry that they made the wrong decision years ago.

[Walter_Sobchak]

4 hours ago, Renegade334 said:

 

As for the 105mm stockpile, I don't know how much is left in Belgium since they retired the Leo 1 in favor of the Piranha IIIC DF90...which, in turn, will be replaced in two years or thereabouts by the EBRC Jaguar. They do have, on the other hand, companies like MECAR that still do manufacture 105mm ammo (M393E3 HEP-T and 1060A3 APFSDS-T) compatible with the Cockerill turrets.

I would think the US can provide 105mm ammo if needed?  Seeing as we just adopted a new MPF (it's not a light tank!) with a 105, I would hope we have ammo of that sort in inventory.

 

[On the way]

I suppose the Leo 1 could be a decent vehicle and more survivable if Rheinmetall could slap on some MEXAS or AMAP modular armour onto the Leo 1 before sending it out to Ukraine. With all the US money floating around, a $1 million armour upgrade per tank would be peanuts for them. Or maybe even some Blazer type variety. If I were the Ukraine, I would be asking NATO and US to spring for the package. It might delay the deployment a bit to uparmour it, but they have other things to work on like getting the engine and transmission into order, and training the Ukrainian tank crews on it. So, it could happen by the time they are ready to deploy. Not too worried about the 105mm gun. as the newer APFSDS ammo is able to take on most Russian tanks.

But where does it stop? Does the US scrounge up every M60 in storage and send them there? Will the French look for stocks of AMX-30? Are there still Centurions in Canada, and NATO, And Israel that are ready to go? This falls under the category some tanks is better then no tanks.

 

[Walter_Sobchak]

28 minutes ago, On the way said:

I suppose the Leo 1 could be a decent vehicle and more survivable if Rheinmetall could slap on some MEXAS or AMAP modular armour onto the Leo 1 before sending it out to Ukraine. With all the US money floating around, a $1 million armour upgrade per tank would be peanuts for them. Or maybe even some Blazer type variety. If I were the Ukraine, I would be asking NATO and US to spring for the package. It might delay the deployment a bit to uparmour it, but they have other things to work on like getting the engine and transmission into order, and training the Ukrainian tank crews on it. So, it could happen by the time they are ready to deploy. Not too worried about the 105mm gun. as the newer APFSDS ammo is able to take on most Russian tanks.

But where does it stop? Does the US scrounge up every M60 in storage and send them there? Will the French look for stocks of AMX-30? Are there still Centurions in Canada, and NATO, And Israel that are ready to go? This falls under the category some tanks is better then no tanks.

 

I don't think the US has any M60 tanks in storage? Most of those are long gone, given away as foreign aid or sitting in front of veterans hall as flowerpots.  If you want an M60, you need to go to Turkey or Egypt, and I doubt either of those countries are willing to donate any to Ukraine.  As to the AMX-30, I have no idea how many of those France has in storage but I would consider them to be of limited usefulness.  It was never a fantastic tank in the first place, although I always thought it was rather sharp looking.  And no, I don't think there are any Centurions ready to go, unless South Africa decides (rather unrealistically) to donate some Olifants.  The fact of the matter is that most of the inventory of older tanks sit in countries that are not likely to get involved in the Ukraine war.  If Ukraine is going to get a large number of tanks, they are going to come from US reserves, and from EU member.  That means Abrams and Leopards. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Walter_Sobchak

[On the way]

8 minutes ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

I don't think the US has any M60 tanks in storage? Most of those are long gone, given away as foreign aid or sitting in front of veterans hall as flowerpots.  If you want an M60, you need to go to Turkey or Egypt, and I doubt either of those countries are willing to donate any to Ukraine.  As to the AMX-30, I have no idea how many of those France has in storage but I would consider them to be of limited usefulness.  It was never a fantastic tank in the first place, although I always thought it was rather sharp looking.  And no, I don't think there are any Centurions ready to go, unless South Africa decides (rather unrealistically) to donate some Olifants.  The fact of the matter is that most of the inventory of older tanks sit in countries that are not likely to get involved in the Ukraine war.  If Ukraine is going to get a large number of tanks, they are going to come from US reserves, and from EU member.  That means Abrams and Leopards. 

Hmm, I know of at least 70+ Centurions with upgraded diesel engines and 105mm guns, (Sh'ot standard) in storage. This was years ago in Singapore. After the SAF started getting the Leo 2s, they brought back all the Centurions stationed in Taiwan, and dri-clad them in storage. I have not heard about their disposal. I assume they are still in storage. Although the generation of tankers trained on them is dwindling due to old age. LOL. Maybe some one should ask the Ukrainians to check with Singapore to see if they are still available.

[Walter_Sobchak]

22 minutes ago, On the way said:

Hmm, I know of at least 70+ Centurions with upgraded diesel engines and 105mm guns, (Sh'ot standard) in storage. This was years ago in Singapore. After the SAF started getting the Leo 2s, they brought back all the Centurions stationed in Taiwan, and dri-clad them in storage. I have not heard about their disposal. I assume they are still in storage. Although the generation of tankers trained on them is dwindling due to old age. LOL. Maybe some one should ask the Ukrainians to check with Singapore to see if they are still available.

Not sure how useful those would be in a modern conflict, but I certainly hope some end up in the hands of modern AFV collectors and museums. 

[Markus Becker]

8 hours ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

Not sure how useful those would be in a modern conflict, but I certainly hope some end up in the hands of modern AFV collectors and museums. 

Hm, if the 'new fire-control system' is digital it might not be worse than a Leo 1.

I wonder when we'll see M48s taken into consideration for delivery. 😉

[R011]

5 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

Hm, if the 'new fire-control system' is digital it might not be worse than a Leo 1.

I wonder when we'll see M48s taken into consideration for delivery. 😉

Surely you mean the Kitsap Militia ex ARVN M47s sport!

[alejandro_]

Yesterday someone was asking how these Leopard 1 will be operated. Do you think they will be deployed in 31 tank battalions like typical Ukrainian Army? Or perhaps they will be fielded in companies as infantry support will be main role?

[Ssnake]

Maybe. Perhaps. Exactly.

The Ukrainians will decide what kind of doctrine to use with them. This may in part depend on what kind of ammo they can get in which quantities.

The current T-64 style of employment may be more or less seamlessly adopted if the Leo 1s receive a lot of HE-frag rounds. Lurk somewhere in the rear, lob HE. Indirect fire is also possible in the 1.

It might just as well serve as a light tank in the recce role, thanks to the thermal imager, or to exploit breakthroughs. Or, it's the Div reserve against the T-62 assault, or to be used in low prio areas to free up T-64 reserves.

Who knows. We'll see.

[alejandro_]

46 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

The Ukrainians will decide what kind of doctrine to use with them. This may in part depend on what kind of ammo they can get in which quantities.

The current T-64 style of employment may be more or less seamlessly adopted if the Leo 1s receive a lot of HE-frag rounds. Lurk somewhere in the rear, lob HE. Indirect fire is also possible in the 1.

It might just as well serve as a light tank in the recce role, thanks to the thermal imager, or to exploit breakthroughs. Or, it's the Div reserve against the T-62 assault, or to be used in low prio areas to free up T-64 reserves.

I was also thinking about the maintenance equipment and spare parts they get. Maybe battalions are better suited that companies if you take it into account.

[Colin]

On 2/5/2023 at 10:52 PM, seahawk said:

If mixed with Bradleys they could be useful. M2 engage the tanks, Leopards the lighter vehicles.

There is irony in there.

[Colin]

3 hours ago, Ssnake said:

Maybe. Perhaps. Exactly.

The Ukrainians will decide what kind of doctrine to use with them. This may in part depend on what kind of ammo they can get in which quantities.

The current T-64 style of employment may be more or less seamlessly adopted if the Leo 1s receive a lot of HE-frag rounds. Lurk somewhere in the rear, lob HE. Indirect fire is also possible in the 1.

It might just as well serve as a light tank in the recce role, thanks to the thermal imager, or to exploit breakthroughs. Or, it's the Div reserve against the T-62 assault, or to be used in low prio areas to free up T-64 reserves.

Who knows. We'll see.

I suspect someone is furiously working on a Steelbeast scenario or two for this.

[On the way]

23 hours ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

Not sure how useful those would be in a modern conflict, but I certainly hope some end up in the hands of modern AFV collectors and museums. 

They can't be worse then the Leo 1s. I am thinking the Ukrainians probably feel the Russians will field more and more T-62s taken out of storage, and if Leo 1s encounter T-62, they have a fighting chance.