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Turkish F-16 request in limbo


Dawes

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This sale is tied up in politics and factory backlog, so who knows? When Lockheed Martin moved the F-16 assembly line to South Carolina, I thought that the end of production was on the horizon. Now they have a backlog of over 100 aircraft. Seems to be a pretty durable design.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/2023/01/18/turkey-f-16-sale-in-limbo-amid-lockheed-backlog/

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On 1/19/2023 at 11:29 AM, Josh said:

I'm hoping Turkey gets nothing until it approves Swedish and Finish NATO entry. Or "Just The Tayyip" is voted out of office; that would be ideal.

They'll probably end up opting for Russian Sukhois if that's the case, or at least collaborate on engine design with Sukhoi for their own TF-X program. So yeah, short term it will be painful for Turkey, but long term they'll be forced to switch away from NATO aircraft and become quite independent. 

 

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Furthermore, the F-16 is being seen by many countries as a suitable investment for the next few decades anyway. Next gen fighters are just too expensive for many countries, and even the ones who will procure them won't do a 1:1 replacement. I don't envision the F-16 production line being shut down anytime soon

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45 minutes ago, Peter Venkman said:

Better yet kick Turkey to the curb and keep the Finns and the Swedes.

https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/

Sure it's possible...but probably not feasible. And given Turkey is literally one of the largest military forces in NATO, just kicking them out and having them side with Russia and Iran is a terrible, terrible idea. 

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9 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

They'll probably end up opting for Russian Sukhois if that's the case, or at least collaborate on engine design with Sukhoi for their own TF-X program. So yeah, short term it will be painful for Turkey, but long term they'll be forced to switch away from NATO aircraft and become quite independent. 

 

Fine by me.

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53 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Still doesn’t mean they won’t be a part of NATO. It doesn’t really solve anything if they don’t get F-16s. With them at least we have some leverage. Without them, we have none. 

Their entire current fleet is F-16s. If they want to replace them all, that is their business.

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12 hours ago, Dawes said:

Turkey manufactured over 240 F-16's for the Turkish Air Force. Why do they need to buy them from the US? Unless it's a licensing issue, or they were just an assembler of imported parts.

https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2005-01-13-Lockheed-Martin-Sells-Its-Share-of-Turkish-Joint-Venture-to-Turkish-Aircraft-Industries-Inc-TUSAS

They assembled them from parts kits brought over from the US. Some parts were manufactured in Turkey, but a huge chunk weren't. The main component of the aircraft, the engine, is brought over from the US as well. Even the Israelis don't have the capability to manufacture the engines used in their American made aircraft as well. Not something the US is willing to give away to other countries

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23 hours ago, Josh said:

Their entire current fleet is F-16s. If they want to replace them all, that is their business.

No need for full replacement, the US hasn't outright sanctioned the entire fleet for its spare parts, nor will they go down that route. The issue is that the US isn't willing to let Turkey upgrade them them further, as many Turkish F-16s are either at MLU or Block 52 at most. Technically, Turkey can upgrade them with homemade radars and AAM's that are in development, but they still need permission from the US to do so. 

The Turks have enough spare parts to keep their F-16s flying for quite a long time even if the US were to outright sanction them.

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The Eurofighter Typhoon is a larger aircraft with a higher payload and a better T/W ratio, but the F-16 theoretically has a huge array of weaponry by various manufacturers to choose from, including things like the AGM-88E AARGM, SDB I/II and the Rampage missile. I do not think the answer is so clear-cut.

If stealthier aircraft are unavailable and strike the objective, I would prefer the F-15E or later variants anyway 😉

Edited by Daan
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I see various articles on the web about Turkey expressing its interest in the Typhoon, but nothing definitive. Freeing up F-16 deliveries could well be part of US-Turkish negotiations about enlarging NATO with Sweden and Finland. Doesn't the US have a de facto veto over Typhoon deliveries to Turkey should it express serious reservations given the amount of trouble it could potentially cause in various US-European joint projects and technology transfers? While the subassembly of the Typhoon is shared between several European nations, how many critical US sourced components are in the Typhoon anyway? I know that even the Dassault Rafale has quite a number of US produced parts.

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6 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Much better choice than Su-35s, but still not better than the Su-57 or J-20, something the Turks may gravitate towards

Su-57 is pretty much a vaporware, assembled (pretty much 'handmade') in symbolic quantities, without some components it originally intended to have.

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4 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Su-57 is pretty much a vaporware, assembled (pretty much 'handmade') in symbolic quantities, without some components it originally intended to have.

It’s still a capable platform, and if the Turks decide to team up with the Russians on this, you’ll see it transform from something much more than vapor ware. 
 

My point is that we can continue to push away Turkey, but let’s not have a pikachu face when they bring life to Russian defense industries 

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