recommended defense postures for the "nice" Pacific Rim countries

[Argus]

The video is the whole 8 hours, it was a bloody interesting conference. One up side to working form home is being being able to virtually attend events like this.

I'm not going to pretend the Ambassador's casual remarks were any less carful than his formal speech, but I think he's making Japan's position pretty clear. If they are happy to see AUKUS, I'm sure they'd be just as happy if not more so to see a wider regional body, provided it worked as more than a talk fest.   

Logically a Japanese - Korean axis should be the foundation of any regional group, and my understanding suggests that in practice that needs a third player in the mix as a minimum, so a Japanese-Korean-US-Aust effort. Which may almost work better if catalysed by Australia, depending on how much being seen to follow a US lead might go domestically in Korea and Japan. But in any case JAKU makes an amusing acronym, and makes for a peer grouping in operational terms. Being 'Nato' spec other like the UK, Canada, NZ and France can slot in as and when they feel like it, and sets a standard for the other regional players.  
 

[futon]

I need to catch up on that conference.

Patching thinks up between ROK and Japan is a big matter. Lots of things to address and it ensares Pacific War history thus the US as well. And things to ve said that won't be readily said at anything like a CSIS talk. Theoritically, I think it can be possible. I almost wrote "I think it can be done" but opted to change the word "done" with "possible" because "done" would imply the change happening via policy and agenda driven, rather than letting it happen on its own. Of course the right conditions need to be made along with letting happen or not. But it comes down to feelings. It's a real knotty mess. If any hope, maybe not as knotty as the ME though.

[Argus]

Agreed, I was trying to to tip toe around the mess but the mountain of unresolved angst between Japan and Korea is the key problem. For all that, my information suggests that on the ground, provided they have a third party present who knows how to handle the situation, you can get Korean and JSDF forces working  well together. 

One point I find interesting, that the Foreign Ministers conference you linked to, look at the actions in the Pacific - EoD and addressing oil spills from WWII, Japan actually cleaning up historical mess, symbolic and practical., it smells like something might be changing.   

[futon]

Well, working together and working well together are two different things. I don't think I have seen "working well togerher" yet. Part of the equation is not just how well a third party country like the US can bring the together, another factor is what's going on between the two countries at any point. There have been a few fairly high points, like around 2010-2012 period in which msyve defense relations can be fostered around it, but then there are low points. In ROK surveys about sentiment towards neighbors, it has not been rare for Japan to score worse than even DPRK... lol Even in 2017 when it was "Rocket boy" vs "Dotard" ROK requested the training that involved the US to separate ROK and Japan forces. Only trilateral was maybe BMD destroyer IIRC. No photos of a triangle US, Japan, Sourh Korean fighters flying together. Or even when the US got three super carriers in the -here's another one.. wait for it.... - See ov Japon, two sets of fleet group photos were taken. One was USN-JMSDF and the other was USN-ROKN. Having both sides come together for things like RIMPAC isn't deep yet. Why? There's a whole thing with it. But the western side won't be ready to see sone things. Many of the old "Japanese collaborators" were demonized in the 1990s and 2000s. Some fair enough, but even Paik Sun Yup. It's so conplicated because feelings towards DPRK run deep. Their commie and dictator but still Korean. A hell stemming from a Korean War that even the current War in Ukraine and all its Russian/Ukraine identity war hasn't falling to yet.

 

Yeah things have been changing. In some ways I'm a little surprised how well things moved along between Japan and the US, Australia, and UK. Quite good with the Philippines as well. ROK.. it's gonna take time. One cleanup that has been going on for a decade or more already was disposal of chemical weapon storage in China. That's a big one. Didn't help one bit.

Edited December 21, 2022 by futon

[DB]

UK seems to have a reasonable military tech development relationship with Worst Korea at the moment. Not with respect to Tempest, but with other items.

To be honest, I'm surprised it's as good as it is after the RFA contract turned into a bit of a mess.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Taiwan to extend compulsory military service to one year

2 hours ago

Citing the threat from an increasingly hostile China, Taiwan said conscripts would serve longer in the military. President Tsai Ing-wen said her country had to meet the "fast and ever-changing situation."

Taiwan will extend its compulsory military service to one year from four months, President Tsai Ing-wen said on Tuesday.

"As long as Taiwan is strong enough, it will be the home of democracy and freedom all over the world, and it will not become a battlefield," Tsai said.

She spoke after the National Security Council discussed ways to reinforce the island's civil defense to prepare for the increasing threat from China.

"The current four-month military service is not enough to meet the fast and ever-changing situation," she noted.

The change would come into effect in January 2024.

China's saber-rattling

The policy shift comes as the island is increasingly concerned over the prospect of a Chinese invasion.

"No one wants war," Tsai Ing-wen said, adding, "But my fellow countrymen, peace will not fall from the sky." 

China has sharply increased military maneuvers close to Taiwan's borders in the past year. In October, Chinese President Xi Jinping made clear that what he calls the "reunification" of Taiwan cannot be passed on to future generations.

On Monday, 71 Chinese air force aircraft, including fighter jets and drones, entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone.

During the latest incursion, Taiwan's Defense Ministry said that several Chinese planes also crossed the Taiwan Strait's median line, an unofficial buffer between the two sides that lies within the defense zone.

'No pressure' from the US

Taiwan has been gradually shifting from a conscript military to a volunteer-dominated professional force, but China's growing assertiveness towards the island it claims as its own, as well as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have prompted debate about how to boost defense.

Recent polling showed more than three-quarters of the Taiwanese public believed the four-month military service was too short.

Conscripts would be tasked with guarding key infrastructure, enabling regular forces to respond more swiftly in the event of any attempt by China to invade, they added.

Taiwan was, however, still massively outmanned in a conflict, with 88,000 ground forces compared with China's one million, according to US military estimates.

Tsai Ing-wen said there was "no pressure" from the United States for military reforms.

However conscripts would undergo more intense training, including shooting exercises, combat instruction used by US forces.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-to-extend-compulsory-military-service-to-one-year/a-64217003

[futon]

For the 8th Indo-Pacifiic annual deployment, JS Kunisaki, Ariake, Haguro, Izumo, Noshiro, Kaga, two P-1s, and a unit of subs (probably two subs) will be dispatched throughout the region. Period goes from May 3rd to Dec 15th. 

https://www.mod.go.jp/msdf/en/release/202404/20240416en.pdf

[futon]

TOKYO -- Japan will supply naval ship antennas to Quad ally India in a bid to strengthen deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, Nikkei has learned, with the deal expected to be announced at a meeting between foreign and defense ministers in New Delhi on Tuesday.

Ministers from both sides will participate in what is known as a two-plus-two meeting in the Indian capital, the first such meeting between the countries since September 2022.

At the previous meeting, the sides confirmed the potential to expand cooperation. A goal for the meeting next week will be to lay out concrete measures on how to boost cooperation in defense equipment.

The antennas, developed by NEC and other Japanese companies, are installed on the most advanced escort ships used by the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. They are capable of rapidly detecting the movements of missiles and drones.

Use of the same equipment will allow for better cooperation during joint defense exercises. Information sharing will also likely become smoother.

India has procured a wide range of weapons from Russia, with which it has historically had close ties. In light of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, India has been expanding procurement in recent years to break away from its reliance on Russia.

...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Japan-to-export-naval-antennas-to-India-for-Indo-Pacific-deterrence