War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[urbanoid]

7 minutes ago, Josh said:

Was Europe that dependent on food from Russia/Ukraine? I thought that was more the Mideast and Africa.

Hell of a story and I do not necessarily believe it, but I also do not disbelieve it either.

No, the EU generally protects its subsidized agriculture, just like the US does, there's this system of subsidies, quotas and whatnot, as it should be. 

That such a goal wasn't really attainable doesn't mean they didn't have it in their minds to try, after all there was a 2021 ultimatum about NATO basically fucking off from the territory of its new members and they STILL repeat it in 2025, while bleeding in Eastern Ukraine for the 4th year. Whatever else you can say about the Russians, they are certainly bold in their demands. 

[urbanoid]

10 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Except, thats not exactly true. Just look at the wide expanse the Ukrainians reclaimed from the Russians in 2022, none of which the Russians have ever gotten back.

True, they control less clay than in... March/April 2022. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

True, they control less clay than in... March/April 2022. 

In many places they are barely 40km from the border.

[Markus Becker]

Back to military and technical stuff:

Our news says Ukraine has for the first time used a ballistic missile with a range of 500 km to attack targets near Moscow.  

The long range version of the HIRM-2 I presume.  

[Josh]

Apparently called Sapsan now; not sure why there was a name change. Allegedly used in combat, though I have seen nothing definitive, and “500km range” and “near Moscow” are mutually exclusive IMO.

[Roman Alymov]

Another case of pre-mined bridge (this time over Volchya river, Kherson region) detonated by pro-Rus fiberFPV drone https://t.me/lost_armour/7433?single

[Roman Alymov]

13 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Allededly a plan of a '3-day war' by the 'West Appeasement Party'. Soooo pro-Western.

"A recording from two weeks ago by the Russian-Israeli journalist Dawid Kohn, in which he responds to a listener's question about whether those "3 days to Kyiv" weren't just a load of bollocks. Kohn says they weren't, and that on 24 February he spoke with an acquaintance from the Kremlin's political services, who was waiting on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border for the decapitation strike on Kyiv to end. On 26 February, in a Russian-controlled centre of Kyiv, the Rada was due to convene (encouraged, as in Crimea, by the GRU). Zelenskyy, the prime minister, and the chairman of the Rada were "not to be around" by that day, by hook or by crook (execution, arrest, or flight abroad). Medvechuk was to become chairman, and on behalf of the Rada he was to invite the "legitimate president" Yanukovych back to Kyiv. The Russians anticipated possible resistance from the army, but at the moment of seizing the Ministry of Defence, all support for the army was to cease, leaving the troops with at best a fight until their supplies ran dry.

Even more fascinating is what Kohn says about the Kremlin’s original intentions from around the 12-minute mark. Yanukovych’s “new” Ukraine would have voluntarily handed over Crimea to Russia as part of “correcting the mistake of 1954”, while the Donbas would have returned to this “new” Ukraine, which would then have demanded that the EU lift sanctions on Russia—after all, there’d be no reason for them. After taking political control of Ukraine, a union state would have been created, which he calls the “three-headed eagle”—that is, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine—which would effectively have become Europe’s monopolist supplier of energy raw materials and food (!) to the whole continent. 

https://x.com/kravietz2048/status/1999557070492934487

 

No idea why "acquaintance from the Kremlin's political services" is considered reliable source, but what is in the text is exactly matching what i have been saying here for years without having any "acquaintance from the Kremlin's political services"

1) The aim of operation, initially, was to "return to business as usual with West"  - meaning return to 2013 or even 2007, when RF was loyal junior parthner of West, and Kremlin administration was de-facto colonial administration for West, with all their intentions de-facto comprador ones (pump Rus resources to the West for free, have good kickbaks stored on personal accounts in Western banks, keep families abroad and leave one day after retirement to comfortable villas on Mediterranian, or palaces in London)

2)Donbass was to be pushed back into Ukraine (that is why pro-Russian movement there was to be gradually suppressed to prevent another uprising to oppose that).

All this words about Medvedchuk. Rada etc. if implemented ment only that colony of West called "RF" would just became bigger, but still controlled by pro-Western administration.  And idea of "three-headed eagle” is complete nonsence as Lukashenko is in fact anti-Russian politician playing own game with West - see fresh nerws

Belarus Pardons 123 Prisoners as US Lifts Potash Sanctions - Bloomberg

[JWB]

Evidently Russia has lost:

 

[JWB]

How many?

 

[Markus Becker]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

Apparently called Sapsan now; not sure why there was a name change. Allegedly used in combat, though I have seen nothing definitive, and “500km range” and “near Moscow” are mutually exclusive IMO.

How so? NE Ukraine to Moskow is about 500km or am I overlooking something? 

https://acscdg.com/

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

How so? NE Ukraine to Moskow is about 500km or am I overlooking something? 

https://acscdg.com/

If you are right up against the border, which is very unlikely for this weapon system. I cannot imagine it getting within a hundred miles of Russian FLOT; it is an Iskander magnet if an Orlan 10 flies overhead.

[Markus Becker]

28 minutes ago, Josh said:

If you are right up against the border, which is very unlikely for this weapon system. I cannot imagine it getting within a hundred miles of Russian FLOT; it is an Iskander magnet if an Orlan 10 flies overhead.

An Orlan 10 would have to make it 160 km past enemy lines. If Russia could swiftly react to movements that deep inside Ukraine, the frontline would probably be a lot less static. My WAG. 

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

An Orlan 10 would have to make it 160 km past enemy lines. If Russia could swiftly react to movements that deep inside Ukraine, the frontline would probably be a lot less static. My WAG. 

Certainly 50 km is a no go zone and there are loitering munitions that reach further. I personally wouldn’t risk anything remotely that close, given the short travel time of Iskander. But I suppose Ukr could role the dice with a suitably high enough value target.

[bojan]

7 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

An Orlan 10 would have to make it 160 km past enemy lines...

Orlan (or other UAV) does not have to fly directly overheat at all.

[Roman Alymov]

On 12/13/2025 at 8:29 PM, Markus Becker said:

How so? NE Ukraine to Moskow is about 500km or am I overlooking something? 

https://acscdg.com/

Actually, this is not fundamental difference. Let's assume NATO proxy force aka UkrArmy have somehow obtained ballistic/cruise missile able to reach Moscow. How do you think it will change the course of war?

[Roman Alymov]

FiberFPV vs. fresh-looking German PzH-2000 in cover (probably, new supply or reserve). Note how drone is not only sneaking under the nets, but is selecting vulnarable point to hit https://t.me/anna_news/87535

Edited December 14, 2025 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

Multiple fiberFPVs vs. German Leopard in cover, Konstantinovka area. Note also single 2A36 Giatsynt firing to the area to repell enemy soldiers who were trying to shoot down drones by small arms fire

https://t.me/sashakots/58373

 

[Roman Alymov]

Photos of Virat oil tanker damage inflected by u-boat attack. By the standards of old fashion artillery exchange, just scratches.....

https://t.me/infomil_live/25075

[Roman Alymov]

Double-warhead Geran' - logical development (as the range of existing Geran' is excessive for this war). Previously, cruise missiles were also upgraded with reduced fuel tanks but bigger combat load.

    Note pink stripes - probably, standard Soviet aircraft sealant. Probably this section is used as fuel tank.

https://t.me/uav_tech/34684

[Roman Alymov]

Frame from pro-Ukr interceptor drone: pro-Rus single-use ultracheap tactical "Molnya" drone with Starlink terminal attached to it. Seems like Starlink technology is now reaching pro-Rus tactical drones level

https://t.me/infomil_live/25091

[Roman Alymov]

Snow-covered fields around Gulyai-pole (Zaporozhye direction) is becoming eacyer to cross (as mud is partly frozen now) but bot only making any movement more visible, but is causing extra steering troubles (see white pickup manuver) https://t.me/boris_rozhin/190681

[Roman Alymov]

Compilation of drone videos from Rubikon https://t.me/boris_rozhin/190692

[JWB]

Putin keeps losing ships to a nation that has no real navy:

 

[Josh]

Kilo has six tubes. Not sure if it is only limited to only using four of those to fire Kaliber.

[urbanoid]

6 minutes ago, Josh said:

Kilo has six tubes. Not sure if it is only limited to only using four of those to fire Kaliber.

They can carry four Kalibrs and two tubes can be used to fire them.