War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[TrustMe]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

You're still thinking as if we were in the 'end of history' period and 2014 and 2022 didn't happen. 

The better analogy would be a Cold War 2.0 in which Poland is functionally West Germany, preparing to stop the Red Horde™ if it tries to move westwards.

I don't expect any 'nation-building COIN bullshit' anytime soon, like in Afganistan or Iraq in which Poland did take part, though indeed not as a 'serious mechanized' force. If you can even think of an 'expeditionary war' that could see substantial Polish participation then please give examples, I can't think of any. I don't think our shiny new tanks are going to be needed in what's expected to be a primarily air-naval fight between the US&Co and Chynah in the Far East in any case, not that they would even get there on time.  

 

I think nobody can predict the future.

When I was 6  in 1982 I came home from school and my mum opened the door and said "were going to war, were going to war". I thought that i'm 6 years old and i'm going to die by radation poisioning in a nuclear war between the USSR and NATO. Then she said it was the Falklands that had been invaded and I said "where's that?" as no one knew were it was.

Funny now, not funny then.

What i'm trying to say is that often wars appear where military planners never predicted would happen and politican's sometime give orders that go against military thought. It happens all the time.

[seahawk]

But that does not mean you can ignore the major risks. The constantly increasing Russian arms production in combination with the changes to the political and economic system must not be ignored. Sure one can argue that they are just replacing losses, but if they do not plan another war, why would they want to fill up the reserve stocks to the previous level. 

[sunday]

2 hours ago, bojan said:

That HRE that had 30 years war, where protestant faction was supported by various foreign countries, like France, England, Swedes, Danmark-Norway, Dutch and Ottomans? 

France had religion wars, also, with factions being supported by foreign countries.

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, TrustMe said:

 

I think nobody can predict the future.

When I was 6  in 1982 I came home from school and my mum opened the door and said "were going to war, were going to war". I thought that i'm 6 years old and i'm going to die by radation poisioning in a nuclear war between the USSR and NATO. Then she said it was the Falklands that had been invaded and I said "where's that?" as no one knew were it was.

Funny now, not funny then.

What i'm trying to say is that often wars appear where military planners never predicted would happen and politican's sometime give orders that go against military thought. It happens all the time.

Well, we don't have overseas territories and we are not an island, we're a frontline state in the middle of Yurop, our priorities differ somewhat.

I can think of our possible participation in some multinational forces in out-of-area operations here and there, whether under NATO or the EU, but I wouldn't expect anything major. There were no major deployments even when the history was 'ended', now that it turned out it wasn't the case anymore the priorities have shifted. There's a big bad bear nearby.

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, sunday said:

France had religion wars, also, with factions being supported by foreign countries.

If you don't want other countries involved, don't have civil wars, simple as.

[TrustMe]

12 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Well, we don't have overseas territories and we are not an island, we're a frontline state in the middle of Yurop, our priorities differ somewhat.

I can think of our possible participation in some multinational forces in out-of-area operations here and there, whether under NATO or the EU, but I wouldn't expect anything major. There were no major deployments even when the history was 'ended', now that it turned out it wasn't the case anymore the priorities have shifted. There's a big bad bear nearby.

 

I can get that. But you'll be surprised what politicans tell there military leaders to do. A few Prime Minsters ago, Borris told the Chief of the RAF that he had agreed with Ukraine that the RAF's F16's would be used by to train Ukraine pilots. The head of the RAF simply said "we don't have any F16's"    this sort of thing happens all the time.

Edited November 17, 2025 by TrustMe

[Markus Becker]

2 hours ago, bojan said:

That HRE that had 30 years war, where protestant faction was supported by various foreign countries, like France, England, Swedes, Danmark-Norway, Dutch and Ottomans? 

Yet people complain about Germany invading them. 

[R011]

4 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

Yet people complain about Germany invading them. 

Western Germany in particular was where the French and Hapsburgs used to fight their battles with others chiming in on whatever side suited them at the time while Prussia got big enough to be a third player of its down 

[bojan]

Prussia was still nobody by the time of 30YW. First time it became a major player was War of Austrian Succession.

[Stuart Galbraith]

18 hours ago, TrustMe said:

 

I think nobody can predict the future.

When I was 6  in 1982 I came home from school and my mum opened the door and said "were going to war, were going to war". I thought that i'm 6 years old and i'm going to die by radation poisioning in a nuclear war between the USSR and NATO. Then she said it was the Falklands that had been invaded and I said "where's that?" as no one knew were it was.

Funny now, not funny then.

What i'm trying to say is that often wars appear where military planners never predicted would happen and politican's sometime give orders that go against military thought. It happens all the time.

In the early 1980's there was a popular books series called 'The Diary of Adrian mole aged 13 and 3 quarters'. Adrian wakes up his dad and tells him the Falklands have been invaded. His dad goes nuts and starts running about in a panic, 'They'll be here in a minute!' Adrian tells him the Falklands are 8000 miles away, and his Dad goes back to bed.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

18 hours ago, seahawk said:

But that does not mean you can ignore the major risks. The constantly increasing Russian arms production in combination with the changes to the political and economic system must not be ignored. Sure one can argue that they are just replacing losses, but if they do not plan another war, why would they want to fill up the reserve stocks to the previous level. 

Europe is now outproducing Russia in Artillery shells, and I suspect, in many areas, not least short range air defence missiles. Such production as Russia has is mainly reconditioning old equipment, not building new.

 

[MiGG0]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Europe is now outproducing Russia in Artillery shells, and I suspect, in many areas, not least short range air defence missiles. Such production as Russia has is mainly reconditioning old equipment, not building new.

 

No, its not. By estimates Russia produces ~3 million and EU ~2 million in -25. Also larger Airdefence missile productions (S-300/400, Patriot, IRIS-T, etc) in Rus has increase a lot in -25 where as in EU produciton improvements are just starting... in short, RUS is way ahead in "war production" still.

Edited November 18, 2025 by MiGG0

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Such production as Russia has is mainly reconditioning old equipment, not building new.

 

This is changing, which is why the level of concern is growing. 

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Europe is now outproducing Russia in Artillery shells, and I suspect, in many areas, not least short range air defence missiles. Such production as Russia has is mainly reconditioning old equipment, not building new.

 

I seriously doubt all of the above, though Europe does have the advantage of stockpiling most of what it produces outside donations to Ukraine.

[sunday]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-nato-soldiers-drone-attacks-b2866397.html

https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/cZkFZeEL

Quote

How to fight in ‘hell’: Ukraine veterans say Nato not ready for war with Russia

Frontline medics and soldiers near Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine tell world affairs editor Sam Kiley how Nato is far from ready for war with Russia – and is training for a bygone era

Sunday 16 November 2025 05:04 GMT

(...)

“You have had encounters with Nato training teams. You’ve talked to Nato when you’ve been back in Europe. Do you think that they’re ready for the next war with Russia?” The Independent asks her.

“No. No, I’m honestly a little bit terrified,” she replies – after more than 40 months at war here.

She goes on to explain: “If you were to talk to Nato military officials, they would reassure you that everything is under control, they’re well equipped, they’re well prepared. But I don’t think anyone can be prepared for a conflict like this. I don’t think anyone can.

“And what’s concerning to me is, while they’re offering training [in Europe for Ukrainians], I think it would do them well to also take some information and training from the Ukrainians.”

Maciorowski has undergone training with Nato forces in the last year and says what they taught was relevant to Afghanistan and Iraq – not Ukraine.

“When I went to train with Nato, the factor of drones was not really filtered in. It was very much the tactics that were learnt in the previous war. And these tactics now do not apply because you’re not making a linear assault.

“Everything has changed with drones. And I don’t think it was factored in, at least not in this training,” she says in her secret medical evacuation headquarters.

Her teams evacuate wounded soldiers using quad bikes because armoured ambulances are now death traps, while quads can race between forests and dugouts trying to avoid drones.

But her team takes heavy losses. Over the last week, a top medic, callsign Viking, was killed on a rescue mission east of Slaviansk. A few weeks before that, another driver was blown up by a drone.

“I don’t see other Europeans coping with this,” she says.

Quote

If it came to a war, Russia has experience in modern combat that only Ukraine shares.

Quote

Nato’s method is to take on mass attacks by the “near peer” forces of Russia. But Russia’s tactics no longer concentrate on mass – the weight of numbers in men and arms used against Ukraine three years ago.

Now, Ukrainian forces are being attacked with long-range glide bombs. Russian drones hunt out Kyiv’s UAV teams in their bunkers and force them away from their forward lines. And above all, the lines of logistics are pounded with terrifying accuracy.

As a result, small groups of two or four Russians covertly sneak into locations on the front lines to try to hold bunkers and dugouts while Ukrainian drones patrol overhead.

The soldiers use blankets designed to muffle their thermal images, sometimes held above them on poles, to get into locations where they may be embedded for weeks or months.

Ukrainian troops do the same. And now that their lines of communication have been cut, they rely entirely on supplies of food and ammunition, as well as medical supplies from drones in the air or on the ground.

Quote

In Afghanistan, 99.2 per cent of British army casualties who were evacuated to the main Helmand hospital at Camp Bastion survived – mostly because they were taken there from the front lines within the first “golden hour” after injury.

In any war with Russia, it could be days or weeks before a severely wounded Nato soldier could be evacuated. And the numbers injured in a single incident or a drone blast are likely to be high.

“The wounds, the injuries, are catastrophic,” explains Maciorowski. “And they’re multiplying because the radius of impact for a drone that drops a grenade or explosive device is massive.

“So you can have an entire group that’s taken out, all of them injured in one drop. We’re not seeing that hand-to-hand combat so much now.

“Now we’re looking at prolonged field care; guys who are unable to evacuate and giving medical advice over a radio, making sure that when guys come to the unit, every soldier is trained like a medic because we don’t have enough medics, and there’s no guarantee that they can get to the wounded soldier in time.

“So every soldier needs to be a highly trained medic… to treat himself and others around him.”

I have read most of those concepts in this thread, and others, of this grate sight, and it is nice to see the MSM writing about them

[ink]

28 minutes ago, sunday said:

 

I have read most of those concepts in this thread, and others, of this grate sight, and it is nice to see the MSM writing about them

Agreed, although you do still see "Russian human wave tactics" stories regularly enough.

[bojan]

Media does not understand what military does, part 5465498789779744.

[Stuart Galbraith]

7 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

No, its not. By estimates Russia produces ~3 million and EU ~2 million in -25. Also larger Airdefence missile productions (S-300/400, Patriot, IRIS-T, etc) in Rus has increase a lot in -25 where as in EU produciton improvements are just starting... in short, RUS is way ahead in "war production" still.

 

 

5 hours ago, Josh said:

I seriously doubt all of the above, though Europe does have the advantage of stockpiling most of what it produces outside donations to Ukraine.

https://kyivindependent.com/nato-has-reversed-russias-edge-in-ammunition-production-rutte-says/

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/nato-now-producing-more-ammunition-than-russia/

 

More to the point, if Russia is outproducing NATO, why does it feel the need to supliment production with shells from Iran and Best Korea?

Edited November 18, 2025 by Stuart Galbraith

[glenn239]

16 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

More to the point, if Russia is outproducing NATO, why does it feel the need to supliment production with shells from Iran and Best Korea?

Um, because more shells is always better than less shells. 

[MiGG0]

22 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

 

https://kyivindependent.com/nato-has-reversed-russias-edge-in-ammunition-production-rutte-says/

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/nato-now-producing-more-ammunition-than-russia/

 

More to the point, if Russia is outproducing NATO, why does it feel the need to supliment production with shells from Iran and Best Korea?

Maybe Rutte (or Journalists) cannot calculate. Where EU produces about that 2 million like I said (and is said in your links aswell). Russia produces about that 3 million (250k * 12 = 3 000 000). They import ammunition to get even more.


https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-artillery-ammo-stockpile-triple-us-europe-combined-chris-cavoli-2025-4

https://defence-industry.eu/russia-producing-250000-artillery-shells-per-month-nato-intelligence-says/

https://www.armyrecognition.com/archives/archives-land-defense/land-defense-2024/nato-intel-reports-russia-produces-up-to-125-tanks-and-250-000-artillery-munitions-monthly

 

 

About airdefence missile produciton increase:

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-doubles-missile-production-s400

Edited November 18, 2025 by MiGG0

[Josh]

47 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

 

https://kyivindependent.com/nato-has-reversed-russias-edge-in-ammunition-production-rutte-says/

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/nato-now-producing-more-ammunition-than-russia/

 

More to the point, if Russia is outproducing NATO, why does it feel the need to supliment production with shells from Iran and Best Korea?

Ah, ok, he is not saying *Europe* out produces Russia, he is saying NATO does…which could be true or close to true, once you add in the > 1 million rounds from the U.S. The UShas expanded from 14,000 /mo to something like 110,000/mo.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Ah, perhaps I gaffed. I meant to say NATO.

[Josh]

33 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Um, because more shells is always better than less shells. 

Because it’s usage outstripped it’s production, though I think usage is down compared to 2024 when the Korean stuff first went over.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Be interesting to learn what ammunition usage during Pokrovsk is like.

[Josh]

42 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Maybe Rutte (or Journalists) cannot calculate. Where EU produces about that 2 million like I said (and is said in your links aswell). Russia produces about that 3 million (250k * 12 = 3 000 000). They import ammunition to get even more.


https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-artillery-ammo-stockpile-triple-us-europe-combined-chris-cavoli-2025-4

https://defence-industry.eu/russia-producing-250000-artillery-shells-per-month-nato-intelligence-says/

https://www.armyrecognition.com/archives/archives-land-defense/land-defense-2024/nato-intel-reports-russia-produces-up-to-125-tanks-and-250-000-artillery-munitions-monthly

 

 

About airdefence missile produciton increase:

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-doubles-missile-production-s400

If you classify AIM-9/120/AASM as “short ranged air defense missiles “, since all of the above have ground based launchers now, you could probably win the Argument on a technicality. But obviously in actual long range SAMs the opposite is true by a wide margin.