War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[ink]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I think that possible. OTOH, I think Taiwan would be fools if they didnt figure on using them back, if only against the landing ships.

I agree. I was kind of going for a bit of hyperbole, just to see what people thought of it. I think China is pretty happy to avoid war, if I'm honest. But, they are heavily investing in drones for military applications, which they appear to be signalling by letting some academic research on the subject out into the public sphere.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/23/12236

This is just one example, but of course there are lots more of you Google around even a little.

 

Edited October 21, 2025 by ink

[alejandro_]

Spanish newspaper El País has interviewed FPV dron operator who shot down Mi-8 helicopter on the 29th of September:

“We had already tried it several times. The last one had been just a few days before. That morning, we launched the FPV (first-person view) drone, not specifically to shoot down the helicopter, but to look for any other targets. At first, we saw a Ka-52 (another type of Russian helicopter), but its speed was too high, and our FPV couldn't catch up. As we turned around, we ran into the Mi-8. Very, very lucky.” “We remained calm and focused on our work. We saw the drone approaching [the Russian aircraft], and the image disappeared” at the moment of impact, he adds, referring to an attack that occurred on September 29.

The attack on September 29 took place between the Russian-controlled towns of Nadiivka and Kotliarivka, southwest of the disputed city of Pokrovsk. The FPV drone took off from a distance of about 15 kilometers, a common distance for this type of operation. "We have shown that these achievements are possible. I understand that it can't be done often, but I also hope it's not the last time."

https://elpais.com/internacional/2025-10-21/david-contra-goliat-un-dron-ucranio-de-700-euros-desintegra-un-helicoptero-ruso-de-seis-millones.html#?rel=lom

[Stuart Galbraith]

15 hours ago, ink said:

I agree. I was kind of going for a bit of hyperbole, just to see what people thought of it. I think China is pretty happy to avoid war, if I'm honest. But, they are heavily investing in drones for military applications, which they appear to be signalling by letting some academic research on the subject out into the public sphere.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/23/12236

This is just one example, but of course there are lots more of you Google around even a little.

 

There potential to create mischief of course. Imagine anonymous drones flying across the straight that China denies having anything to do with. Green man quadcopters in other words. Thats a problem we all may have to face in the near future.

In fact, looking at the drone incursions in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and others, we kinda already are.

Edited October 22, 2025 by Stuart Galbraith

[bojan]

Where are you going to buy that loads of drones you want to use in case of war with China when it is China that is producing more that 70% od drones and more than 95% of components for commercial ones?

[Stuart Galbraith]

34 minutes ago, bojan said:

Where are you going to buy that loads of drones you want to use in case of war with China when it is China that is producing more that 70% od drones and more than 95% of components for commercial ones?

European nations are scaling up. There has already been two joint factories with Ukrainian manufacturers announced being set up in Britain, one down the road from me.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-to-open-huge-400m-military-drone-factory/

Takes time, but the idea that the only place we will be able to buy drones is China is increasingly not true.

[glenn239]

51 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

European nations are scaling up. There has already been two joint factories with Ukrainian manufacturers announced being set up in Britain, one down the road from me.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-to-open-huge-400m-military-drone-factory/

Takes time, but the idea that the only place we will be able to buy drones is China is increasingly not true.

Now that British Stormshadows have been used on the refinery outside Moscow, if I were you until the full consequences of this have shaken out,  I wouldn't get too emotionally invested in the existence of this or that EU factory going forward.

[alejandro_]

Ukraine to purchase up to 150 latest Gripen fighters from Sweden for the Armed Forces of Ukraine 

On October 22, Ukraine and Sweden signed a letter of intent to purchase 120 to 150 of the latest JAS 39 Gripen E fighters.

As Censor.NET reports  , the signing of the agreement took place during a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. 

https://censor.net/ua/n3581089

[ink]

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

There potential to create mischief of course. Imagine anonymous drones flying across the straight that China denies having anything to do with. 

China aside, I reckon drone-based terrorism is, unfortunately for everyone, going to be a thing going forward.

Can't see any handy solutions presenting themselves as yet either.

[seahawk]

Kind of: If we still do exist, have the money and are allowed to get the engines, we might buy some Gripens - neither is going to happen. 

[Josh]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Now that British Stormshadows have been used on the refinery outside Moscow, if I were you until the full consequences of this have shaken out,  I wouldn't get too emotionally invested in the existence of this or that EU factory going forward.

Stormshadow lacks the range for that. Is there wreckage confirmed as such? But even if it was, it would hardly be the first Stormshadow attack on Russia, depending on how one defines Russia.

As for strikes on NATO countries, not sure that’s a door Russia wants to open, since all of its Gerans come from a single large central manufacturing area.

 

ETA: ah, the attack was on a factory in Bryansk, and Ukraine itself made the claim.

Edited October 22, 2025 by Josh

[Josh]

1 hour ago, alejandro_ said:

Ukraine to purchase up to 150 latest Gripen fighters from Sweden for the Armed Forces of Ukraine 

On October 22, Ukraine and Sweden signed a letter of intent to purchase 120 to 150 of the latest JAS 39 Gripen E fighters.

As Censor.NET reports  , the signing of the agreement took place during a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. 

https://censor.net/ua/n3581089

That seems rather aspirational rather than realistic…

[mandeb48]

 

I know the arms market is quite dirty and corrupt, but this is too much. Isn't there a more subtle way to steal EU funds?

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

That seems rather aspirational rather than realistic…

No, they have been talking about it for a while. Unlocks all kinds of fun toys, like Meteor for example.

 

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

As for strikes on NATO countries, not sure that’s a door Russia wants to open, since all of its Gerans come from a single large central manufacturing area.

Geran production can be diversified.  

[MiGG0]

13 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

No, they have been talking about it for a while. Unlocks all kinds of fun toys, like Meteor for example.

 

I think point was that it is supposed to use frozen RUS funds. Im not that sure EU have balls for that. Also it could backfire pretty badly (foreign investors pull back their investment from EU).

Edited October 22, 2025 by MiGG0

[Josh]

38 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

No, they have been talking about it for a while. Unlocks all kinds of fun toys, like Meteor for example.

 

I know, and I expect it to eventually happen at some small scale, but 120-150?!

[Josh]

34 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Geran production can be diversified.  

Ah yes, Europe is incapable of producing anything or defending itself while Russia can adapt to any situation.

[Josh]

31 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

I think point was that it is supposed to use frozen RUS funds. Im not that sure EU have balls for that. Also it could backfire pretty badly (foreign investors pull back their investment from EU).

Ah, was wondering where the money will come from. I think that’s a bad idea for several reasons.

[MiGG0]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Ah, was wondering where the money will come from. I think that’s a bad idea for several reasons.

Yep. Also that 150 fighter could come in 10-15 years. So small batch with funding coming from sonewhere else is possible relatively short term, whole 150 is questionable as who funds them is still open.

Edited October 22, 2025 by MiGG0

[kokovi]

3 hours ago, seahawk said:

Kind of: If we still do exist, have the money and are allowed to get the engines, we might buy some Gripens - neither is going to happen. 

Perhaps it can be reengineered for the EJ200? Dimensions are similar and the Eurofighter engine has a bit more performance.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

I know, and I expect it to eventually happen at some small scale, but 120-150?!

Sure, hire Mercs.

[kokovi]

On 10/20/2025 at 2:53 PM, Josh said:

The U.S. is in the process of completely reorganizing is reconnaissance formations around UAVs, loitering munitions, and electronic warfare. We are not seeing a major FPV effort, but we are seeing a fairly extensive UAV ISR effort. It training exercises it seems pretty clear that the preferred weapon is artillery, not FPV, because it is more responsive. For the U.S., most every artillery round can be guided - there are over a hundred thousand fuse guidance kits made, with the latest versions using the new M code. I suspect the U.S. largely skips FPV use and instead relies on artillery short term or automated target lock on longer term. Things like the Anduril bolt already attack a target independently once commanded to do so.

There were articles on German defense sites about a US Army experimental exercise where 90% of fires were observed with UAVs which led to 50% less munitions used and 300% more effectivity at the same time.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, MiGG0 said:

I think point was that it is supposed to use frozen RUS funds. Im not that sure EU have balls for that. Also it could backfire pretty badly (foreign investors pull back their investment from EU).

Americans dont want to do it, which is a good reason why Europe will. Look what happened with recognising Palestine.

[MiGG0]

3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Americans dont want to do it, which is a good reason why Europe will. Look what happened with recognising Palestine.

Not going to happen (all of those). UKR funding is already going down. EU countries needs those money to build up themselfs.

[Stuart Galbraith]

As far as defence infrastructure, its precisely the same thing.