War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[Huba]

19 minutes ago, bojan said:

Maybe it is best to leave speculations and rummors for "Kiev..." thread until those are confirmed?

It is about as factual as speculations about RU missile stockpile which you were happy to dive into. Potential military implications of this are on the level of UA getting GMLRS in the summer, "gamechanging" and IMO very worth discussing. It's not like this thread is overflowing with other subjects at the moment.

[bojan]

6 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

What makes you believe that posting discipline of the same people about the same topic will be different?

One can hope.

Quote

 Just because you created a new thread?

Lol, if I had superpowers I would generally use them not to get stuck in traffic, not on some forum

 

[bojan]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

It is about as factual as speculations about RU missile stockpile which you were happy to dive into. ...

Those missiles do exist and are in use. When ground launched SDB thing happens I will be more than happy to discuss it, even if we have to speculate on amount of those. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by bojan

[Huba]

I assume you are perfectly aware that your attempts at policing are creating way more crap in this thread than my single post about something actually relevant to the subject - so why do it?

Edited November 28, 2022 by Huba

[Lesley]

On 11/27/2022 at 5:07 PM, Huba said:

A very nice breakdown of RU rail logistics situation in occupied Ukraine. Nothing new, but worth reading for anyone who didn't familiarize himself with the railroads map yet. 

 

About the logistical hub, units from the 150th Motorized Rifle Division are often seen in this area of operations, could it be that this is a divisional supply hub or an army supply hub? Any way to recognize that from the air. For example, fuelbladders are only used at Div, level, or some vehicle types only found at a certain level?

[alejandro_]

At least 9,311 Russian soldiers have died since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine nine months ago, according to an independent investigation conducted jointly by the BBC Russian Service and independent Russian news outlet MediaZona. 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/25/death-toll-for-russian-soldiers-in-ukraine-at-least-9300-bbc-a79506
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63755790

The figure matches well other data compiled by using obituaries/funeral notices.

[ink]

1 hour ago, alejandro_ said:

At least 9,311 Russian soldiers have died since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine nine months ago, according to an independent investigation conducted jointly by the BBC Russian Service and independent Russian news outlet MediaZona. 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/25/death-toll-for-russian-soldiers-in-ukraine-at-least-9300-bbc-a79506
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63755790

The figure matches well other data compiled by using obituaries/funeral notices.

Wait a second. That doesn't jive with the figures we've been seeing. Shouldn't there be like 100,000 dead Russian soldiers by now?

[Pavel Novak]

6 minutes ago, ink said:

Wait a second. That doesn't jive with the figures we've been seeing. Shouldn't there be like 100,000 dead Russian soldiers by now?

Sure 100k is overblown just like ukr losses presented by some people here.

But column "russian soldiers" is usually without L/DNR, Rosgvardia, Wagner, etc.

[Ssnake]

"100,000 casualties" means "dead and wounded". A 9:1 wounding:kill ratio is pretty much in line with other modern conflicts. It used to be a lot less favorable in the past. This would suggest however that the reports about Russians abandoning their wounded are at least overblown (which in itself can hardly come as a surprise). How many of the 90,000 surviving casualties can actually come back to service is an open question, but "a third" is probably not the worst first order estimate. That's still between 50,000 and 70,000 permanent losses.

[alejandro_]

1 hour ago, Pavel Novak said:

Sure 100k is overblown just like ukr losses presented by some people here.

But column "russian soldiers" is usually without L/DNR, Rosgvardia, Wagner, etc.

The link above does include Rosgvardia but not Donbass Republics. I am not even sure how they get counted nowadays because they are technically part of Russia.

[bojan]

DNR recenly published own list, IIRC ~3.5k KiA. I assume LNR loses to be about the same.

[Josh]

22 minutes ago, bojan said:

DNR recenly published own list, IIRC ~3.5k KiA. I assume LNR loses to be about the same.

They probably have the most honest casualty reporting of the war, not that it’s a high bar.

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, ink said:

Wait a second. That doesn't jive with the figures we've been seeing. Shouldn't there be like 100,000 dead Russian soldiers by now?

According to Ukrainian sources, yes, but the theory there is that Ukraine is assigning KIA figures to Russia on a scale that Ukraine is suffering itself.

Edited November 29, 2022 by glenn239

[seahawk]

It seems like Russia is achieving an advantage of 5-10 when it comes to KIA. So Ukraine probably has between 50.000 to 90.000 KIA.

[Pavel Novak]

2 minutes ago, seahawk said:

It seems like Russia is achieving an advantage of 5-10 when it comes to KIA. So Ukraine probably has between 50.000 to 90.000 KIA.

If KIA plus WIA and MIA than ok but if just KIA I have doubts. I remember how overblown (10x and more) were western estimates of iraqi KIA in 1991.

[alejandro_]

5 minutes ago, seahawk said:

It seems like Russia is achieving an advantage of 5-10 when it comes to KIA. So Ukraine probably has between 50.000 to 90.000 KIA.

Ukraine losses have been more serious, but not by that factor. Last time they were mentioned it was on 22nd August:

Ukraine’s army chief, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said almost 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February. This is the first time Ukraine has revealed the scale of its military losses since the war began. It has not been possible to independently verify the figure put forward by Zaluzhnyi

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/aug/22/russia-ukraine-war-shelling-rocks-nikopol-near-nuclear-plant-zelenskiy-warns-moscow-against-trial-of-ukrainian-soldiers-live-news

Not verified, but it comes from Ukraine’s army chief. No detail provided on what is included though (Army/TDF/Navy...)

[glenn239]

12 minutes ago, Pavel Novak said:

If KIA plus WIA and MIA than ok but if just KIA I have doubts. I remember how overblown (10x and more) were western estimates of iraqi KIA in 1991.

A quick google suggests that the Yom Kippur War had about 50,000 casualties in about 19 days of fighting, or 2,600 per day.  Total forces engaged looked somewhat larger than the size of the armies here.  2,600 per day for over 275 days would be over 700,000 total casualties.  So 300,000+ Ukrainian casualties so far would not be exceptional because of the duration of the conflict.  If the Ukrainians are taking KIA at the approx. daily rate the Israelis took them in 1973, then they would have about 40,000 KIA so far.  If at the approx. rate of the Arab armies, they would have about 200,000 KIA so far.  

So 100,000 KIA is hardly out of the question, given that artillery in this war is more lethal than in 1973.    The other thing about the 1973 war is that the Israelis felt no need to suffer casualties at the same rate as the Arab armies.  They inflicted losses on their enemies at a rate of at least 4:1.  

Edited November 29, 2022 by glenn239

[bojan]

Yom Kippur also saw 3000-3500 tanks KOd in only 20 days, which is way, way, way higher intensity then in Ukraine. Just to put it to perspective, number of destroyed tanks on both sides, even if you take Oryx claims for Russian side and wilder of the Russian claims for Ukrainian side as truth has still not reached 3000 after 9 months of fighting.

So you can not use Yom Kippur for loses in Ukraine.

Edited November 29, 2022 by bojan

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, bojan said:

Yom Kippur also saw 3000-3500 tanks KOd in only 20 days, which is way, way, way higher intensity then in Ukraine. Just to put it to perspective, number of tanks destroyed tanks on both sides, even if you take Oryx claims for Russian side and wilder of the Russian claims for Ukrainian side as truth has still not reached 3000 after 9 months of fighting.

So you can not use Yom Kippur for loses in Ukraine.

So, exclude armor.  Assuming half of all KIA (about 18,000) in the Yom Kippur War were in the tank forces, (which is a generous assumption), that would be 9,000 mostly to artillery and air attack, or about 500 KIA per day.  500 KIA per day for 275 days would be 137,500 KIA.   So 100,000 KIA is not out of the question given the length of the conflict, and the lethality of the weapons systems, and the endless reports of the Ukrainian casual recklessness with its poorly trained conscripts.

Artillery these days is far more lethal than during Yom Kippur.  Improvements in fire control, munitions, target observation, CEP.   The Mk1 human has also improved - body armor and medical services - but not to the same degree, IMO.

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by glenn239

[Josh]

Let us please not get into yet another casualty speculation argument. We don't know the casualties of either side and estimates vary by orders of magnitude. When it's over, if we get real numbers, the appropriate posters can say "I told you so".

[ink]

21 hours ago, seahawk said:

It seems like Russia is achieving an advantage of 5-10 when it comes to KIA. So Ukraine probably has between 50.000 to 90.000 KIA.

Don't know if this is legit so perhaps take it with a pinch of salt:

 

[BansheeOne]

From what I can find on the quick, the original version seems legit. Wouldn't be the first time some speechwriter with no subject matter knowledge (note she says "100,000 military officers") looked at Wikipedia, saw "100,000 casualties estimated by Russian and US governments", and turned it into some nonsense which had to be retracted later. Been there, fucked up.

[Huba]

Exactly that, the original video has been withdrawn already and this part removed. A bit embarrassing. Also, I wonder what the 20K civilian deaths comes from, IIRC Milley gave a number of 40K a few weeks ago.

[Yama]

On 11/24/2022 at 12:51 PM, alejandro_ said:

I have come across this graph in twitter and the other thread, I will put it here with some of my comments



For Iskander, Russian Army has 14 brigades equipped with this missile. Until the end of 2019 each brigade had 3 divisions with 12 double launchers. At that point it was decided to reinforce the structure with a fourth division, so the initial salvo could be up to 32 missiles instead of 24. This means that initial salvo could be up to 480 missiles. Each brigade should carry several salvos. More missiles should be available at different levels with varying readiness. 900 missiles is way too low.

As others have pointed out, in the late 90s Ukraine transferred 575 Kh-55 missiles.

I commented that on other thread already, is the source really Ukrainian MoD? Any way, some of the numbers look really weird - 16 Kinzhals fired seems fairly high, their launches have been very rarely announced, and probably are less than 10. I think Ukrainians have sometimes confused Kinzhal with other types of supersonic missiles, such as Kh-22.

Kh-35 must be a typo for Kh-25 family. There is no indication Russians have fired hundreds of Kh-35's (and produced 360 missiles in less than a year...). AFAIK the missile has been fired mostly, or entirely, from Bal launchers, and actual number of fired missiles is few dozens. Yet it does not appear in 'ground launched' category. I think Roman feels vindicated as Tochka-U is not listed either.

I don't understand why Ukrainians would even release this. If they have accurate information of Russian stocks and expenditure, why reveal it? OTOH, the table doesn't even work as a morale booster for home front, as it would show that Russia still has plenty of missiles left. It seems like work of some diletantte.

[Stuart Galbraith]

12 minutes ago, Yama said:

I commented that on other thread already, is the source really Ukrainian MoD? Any way, some of the numbers look really weird - 16 Kinzhals fired seems fairly high, their launches have been very rarely announced, and probably are less than 10. I think Ukrainians have sometimes confused Kinzhal with other types of supersonic missiles, such as Kh-22.

Kh-35 must be a typo for Kh-25 family. There is no indication Russians have fired hundreds of Kh-35's (and produced 360 missiles in less than a year...). AFAIK the missile has been fired mostly, or entirely, from Bal launchers, and actual number of fired missiles is few dozens. Yet it does not appear in 'ground launched' category. I think Roman feels vindicated as Tochka-U is not listed either.

I don't understand why Ukrainians would even release this. If they have accurate information of Russian stocks and expenditure, why reveal it? OTOH, the table doesn't even work as a morale booster for home front, as it would show that Russia still has plenty of missiles left. It seems like work of some diletantte.

But it does rather underline the necessity for further air defence missiles or terminal defence capability, which seems to be the argument they are trying to make.