War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Is Is Vlad sending a message to Trump with the conflagration in the Ukrainian city of Kropyvnytskyi?

 

Something big went 'boom' and Russian sources say it was munitions  being moved east.

Actually nothing significant was hit - it was railway station and nearby industrial facility. Yes few fires, but nothing decisive that could be interpreted as "Vlad sending a message to Trump" like Dniper bridge or big power station etc. May be trainload of ammunition, but it is not so important. More over, following alleged shooting down of 7 Geran' drones on the way to energy infrastructure installations in Ukraine by RusAF themselves following Putin-Trump conversation, pro-Russian Telegram is full of anger and accusations of another betrail of national interests.

[Roman Alymov]

Rare inside view of barn-MTLB https://t.me/milinfolive/144539

[JWB]

https://x.com/KofmanMichael/status/1902694940485767451

An update on the war following a recent trip. The situation has improved compared with Fall 2024. Russian offensive momentum slowed significantly over the winter, though it is premature to claim that the front has stabilized, especially following AFU withdrawal in Kursk.

AFU is successfully attriting Russian forces at 0-30km through a combination of mining, drones, and traditional fires. This enables a low density of forces to hold the front. Russian units often don’t reach defensive positions and much of the equipment is lost in assaults.

[KV7]

7 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Possibly.

Its certainly not a Scorpion, none of the bolt or weld patterns line up. More to the point, I dont know anyone whom is still using the 76mm round, so sourcing that is likely an impossiblity now.

Yes I agree, I just saw the wedge shape and thought that matched but yes there are no welds, it cannot be that turret.

[urbanoid]

Are those... cruise missiles stored like that?

[Yama]

Missile storage containers maybe, just left there after use?

[bojan]

Containers, 100%.

Whatever they are full or empty is anyone's guess, but I would lean heavily toward empty.

[JWB]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1903046771992903931

A blogger spoke with fighters from Russia’s 810th Marine Brigade who fought in Kursk Oblast. They described the brutal cost of capturing Sudzha, with about 1200 wounded daily and 5% dying. Small-arms clashes are scarce as Ukrainian forces actively deploy UAVs, turning the battlefield ruthless.

[JWB]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1903021524027666742

France and Britain have ditched plans to send troops to Ukraine, opting instead for UN peacekeepers as an alternative, per The Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/03/20/macron-exploring-un-alternative-starmer-ukraine-peace-force/

[Roman Alymov]

On 2/26/2025 at 9:32 PM, Roman Alymov said:

Thank you for bringing up this story i forgot about.

    First, let's address the original text https://t.me/fighter_bomber/20027

"A forgotten category in the channel.
"What's in Laos aviation?"
Well, perhaps nothing new, they fly, shoot, bomb, launch, win. The average flight time per month for the crew today is slightly more than per year <before war>. 
But there is a caveat.
The entire section today will be devoted to this nuance.

The age of divine UMPK was short-lived. Actually, I wrote a long time ago that we need to prepare for the fact that the Ukrainian will find a counteraction to the UMPK and we need to work proactively. Many years before his story.
The UMPKdefinitely played a huge role, and literally saved the VKS from huge losses, but nothing lasts forever under the moon, and people are creatures who really want to live and do everything possible for their survival.

Non-ignirant people of all stripes and ranks have long sounded the alarm, but according to the ancient traditions of Laos, no one gives a f+k about these worries.
Bombs are flying regularly, planned targets are being "hit", everything is in place, the columns on the slides are becoming more and more beautiful, in the reports the numbers of sorties and destroyed targets are increasing to such an extent that the speakers begin to read them with a sigh and let out a stingy tear.
But there is a caveat.

They don't hit <the targets>.

All satellite correction systems have officially left the chat. Both our EW men and, of course, the enemy ones learned how to use portable and mobile EW stations, which were used to plug the entire contact line on both sides and made the correction of all ammunition systems (not only UMPK) based on satellite navigation useless. Just like radio-controlled drones are slowly leaving the scene.

Yes, for area targets such as factories, cities, a single UMPK will certainly hit. But there are no such goals on the contact line 

Yes, it would be possible to change tactics and spend not one UMPK bomb on one target, but for example 8. Or 16. And then, taking into account the addition of errors, you see, the target would be destroyed by some kind of bomb from this pile. In the old days, it was called salvo bombing and was the main bombing mode of all bombers. 

But as you understand, you will have to report that only one of the 16 targets was killed. Probably.
And who needs it? 
Well, you get it.

The situation with electronic warfare in the enemy's rear is not much better, but there are areas where the ammunition can be adjusted along the flight route, and secondly, at altitudes less than 50 meters, there is a <GPS> signal in places. Therefore, with long-range ammunition based on satellite correction, things are better, but not much. Because EW is mandatory for all "fat" targets. And here the accuracy depends on the "drift" of the ammunition without correction per kilometer.

What needs to be done?
Well, you definitely need to stop flying for the sake of flying and dropping for the sake of dropping. 
Move on to work on fewer goals, but more UMPKs.
Accept it as an axiom that a single UMPK today can only hit a target by accident, or on a training ground.
To consolidate this in the reports of the commanders.
Processing and developing ammunition with an illuminated laser seeker from a UAV. 
Finish  TV guidance systems and data transmission systems.
And of course, complete the INS. 
One way or another, the future belongs to autonomous inertial navigation systems anyway.
The report is finished!

Oh, and I'll stress it again. It's all in Laos. We're all f+d up. The enemy has no EW. If a rocket dies or misses its target, it's only the pilots' fault. Every rocket bomb hits its target. Ask any boss from the general and above. They won't let you lie".

    So, what is the meaning of this text you are so cheerfully brought here? The meaning is, first and foremost, that all this nice stocks of GPS-guided amunition West was so effectively using (and stockpiling) are now just rubbish. HIMARS, Excalibur, JDAM etc. And, taking into account both pro-Russian and peo-Ukrainian EW systems now are just DIY compinations of Made-in-China components, it is question of time China will be totally immune to existing generation of Western GPS-guided ammunition.  Money spent on this ammunition were effectively thrown away, and Ukraine became ideal testground for finding the ways to finding proper countermeasures.

     Also, as it is usual for person related to OPSEC, Fighterbomber is telling the truth but very measured truth. He is not telling you that UMPKs once started with 4-channel sat recievers Kometa-M (see https://en.topwar.ru/222148-umpk-hitryj-plan-ili-udachnaja-improvizacija.html ) 

Then they got 6-element, 8-element ones and, surprise, the same day Fighterbomber blew the whistle, prominent pro-Ukr EW specialist have posted the plea to his subscribers to sent him new, 12-element satnav reciever UNPKs are now comming with https://t.me/serhii_flash/5016

So, as we see, UMPKs are rapidly developing. True, the price of this development is increase of the size of GPS antenna set - now obviously too big to be fitted into artillery shells etc. So the era of GPS-guided artillery is, probably, gone (at least intill some new technological developments), and the same is true for most of GPS-guided missiles, bombs etc. West became so used to.

 

 

Back to the issue of GPS jaming: Pro-Ukrainians have demonstrated new, reportedly Made-in-China, 16-channel GPS module taken from Geran' drone wreck (probably will be also installed on glide bombs)

https://t.me/serhii_flash/5235

[Roman Alymov]

Pro-Russians use of FPV drone with smoke charge to create smoke cover, Zaporozhye region https://t.me/boris_rozhin/158718

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Pro-Russians use of FPV drone with smoke charge to create smoke cover, Zaporozhye region https://t.me/boris_rozhin/158718

That looks like it has potential, but shouldn't they be using about 50 smoke drones at once to provide the cover?

[Roman Alymov]

Rare video of Su-34 landing without landing gears, "on belly". Note pilot's cockpit hatched jetisoned prior to landing  (it is not visible on the video, but was visually observed by operator) and right engine "exhaust nozzle" falling away at the moment of touching the runway. Place and location not known, but probably linked to combat flights https://t.me/milinfolive/144681

[urbanoid]

The Ukrainians claim they produce 'more than 18' 155 mm Bohdanas per month and are eyeing to ramp it up even further. Interestingly they claim that the bottleneck is the chassis, not guns.

Quote

Ukraine Will Produce Bohdana Self-Propelled Gun on Two Chassis at Once

The Ukrainian industry can double the production of the Bohdana self-propelled artillery system by launching the production of artillery systems on several chassis at once.

This was stated by Ihor Fedirko, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Council of Defence Industry (UCDI), in an interview with Radio NV.

Fedirko said that the Ukrainian defence industry was producing significantly more wheeled howitzers than the previously announced record of 18 units per month.

“There are some signed 3-5-year contracts with one of the European manufacturers in partnership with others. And we are talking about 115 systems. This is a three-year contract. And we can produce the same number of systems in two or three months with normal financing and chassis,” he said.

He did not name the exact number of monthly art systems, but the potential for production growth by 2-3 times, i.e. at least up to 40 units, is clear. The key limitation for scaling is the supply of chassis for the machines.

“There are questions only about the chassis. I am sure we will solve this issue very quickly and will be able to supply much more of these systems,” Fedirko added.

Currently, the Ukrainian industry is focused on producing wheeled howitzers on the chassis of the Czech Tatra Phoenix 8×8 truck. Upon arrival, the trucks are armored and retrofitted to be used as artillery units with 155 mm cannons.

Last year, Militarnyi managed to visit the production of these vehicles, where the developers told the reporters about the work on the creation of the self-propelled gun system on new chassis. The chassis of several European manufacturers were observed.

Earlier, a certain number of Bohdana SPGs were also produced on the basis of Tatra T-815 armored trucks and Belarusian MAZ trucks. They were in stock before the Russian full-scale invasion. Their further use is unlikely due to the rejection of Belarusian products and the reduction of production of T-815 vehicles by the Czech company.

Since last year, domestic artillery systems have been adopted by at least six military units, including the artillerymen of the Army, Marines, National Guard, and even the Defence Intelligence and the composite brigade of the National Police.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-will-produce-bohdana-self-propelled-gun-on-two-chassis-at-once/

Original article autotranslated from Ukrainian:

Quote

Ukraine produces significantly more than 18 Bohdan per month — Ihor Fedirko

Executive Director of the Ukrainian Council of Gunsmiths Ihor Fedirko stated in an interview with Radio NV that Ukraine produces more than 18 Bohdan self-propelled guns per month.

" We are incredibly superior in artillery systems, such as our Bogdana. That is, we produce much more of them at one enterprise than the entire European defense industry," Fedirko noted on Radio NV .

Answering the question of whether the data on Ukraine's production of 18 Bohdan self-propelled guns per month is accurate, the executive director of the Ukrainian Council of Gunsmiths said: "I don't want to say, but much more."

" There is only a question about the chassis. And I am convinced that we will solve it very quickly and will be able to supply many more of these systems. There are some signed three/five-year contracts with one of the European manufacturers in partnership with others. And they say about 115 systems. This is a three-year contract. And we can produce the same number of systems now in two or three months. With normal financing and the availability of the chassis," Fedirko added.

In October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was producing nearly 20 Bohdan self-propelled artillery systems every month .

In February, the Minister of Defense and Deputy Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Denmark, Troels Lund Poulsen, said that it took two months to produce 20 Bohdan self-propelled guns in Ukraine , while their procurement in Europe would have taken two years.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/ukrajina-viroblyaye-bilshe-nizh-18-sau-bogadana-na-misyac-ekspert-50498832.html

[Roman Alymov]

39 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

The Ukrainians claim they produce 'more than 18' 155 mm Bohdanas per month and are eyeing to ramp it up even further. Interestingly they claim that the bottleneck is the chassis, not guns.

Taking into account they use foreign-made chassis (Tatra 158 Phoenix 8x8)   - that number and bottleneck are quite plausable, especially as most likely production of gun parts and final assembly is also done abroad. So the claim "we produce much more of them at one enterprise than the entire European defense industry" is questionable as de-facto Bogdanas/"Bohdanas" are erzats version from the same "European defense industry".

Anyway, up intill now we see no "wave" of new SPGs of this type on the frontline.

"Inokhodets" drone bombing Bogdana SPG https://t.me/boris_rozhin/158792

[urbanoid]

Just now, Roman Alymov said:

Taking into account they use foreign-made chassis (Tatra 158 Phoenix 8x8)   - that number and bottleneck are quite plausable, especially as most likely production of gun parts and final assembly is also done abroad. So the claim "we produce much more of them at one enterprise than the entire European defense industry" is questionable as de-facto Bogdanas/"Bohdanas" are erzats version from the same "European defense industry".

Anyway, up intill now we see no "wave" of new SPGs of this type on the frontline.

"Inokhodets" drone bombing Bogdana SPG https://t.me/boris_rozhin/158792

Agreed, since the chassis and I assume at least some of the guns are produced by European companies (I'd even guess that it's more than one).

[old_goat]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Taking into account they use foreign-made chassis (Tatra 158 Phoenix 8x8)   - that number and bottleneck are quite plausable, especially as most likely production of gun parts and final assembly is also done abroad. So the claim "we produce much more of them at one enterprise than the entire European defense industry" is questionable as de-facto Bogdanas/"Bohdanas" are erzats version from the same "European defense industry".

Anyway, up intill now we see no "wave" of new SPGs of this type on the frontline.

"Inokhodets" drone bombing Bogdana SPG https://t.me/boris_rozhin/158792

Are these Bogdanas even assembled in ukraine? If yes, then Russia should attack the assembly plants with Iskanders or Kalibr missiles.

Edited March 22 by old_goat

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, old_goat said:

Are these Bogdanas even assembled in ukraine? If yes, then Russia should attack the assembly plants with Iskanders or Kalibr missiles.

There is no need for "plant" to assemble Bogdana SPG, any big garage/workshop is enough, and there are thousands of them left from USSR industry (if not tens of thousands).

[Roman Alymov]

Back to the debate about JDAMsky accuracy

"Good changes in the way UMPKs are used. Namely, to strike with a concentrated volley. After all, enemy spoofing (a type of electronic warfare) knocks down the guidance of the control system, and this leads to an increase in the hit error. 

The use of multiple bombs ensures that the target is definitely hit. Actually, the same principle has now begun to be applied to Geranium raids.

It remains to be seen when, instead of worrying about difficult strongholds, they began to count the economy, and began to use UMPK strikes more often before the assault began. Still, against 500 kg of FAB, the usual field fortification does not really help, and a few bombs allow you to level the stronghold off the face of the earth, along with those who are on the defensive there. So that if anyone survived, he would be well shell-shoked. 

Moreover, it does not require a significant increase in the number of bombs. The concentration of strikes by 3-4 aircraft on the most important positions makes it possible to solve the problem of "tough nuts", especially if you combine FABs and OFABSs

And thus replace the firing rampart that made it possible to overcome the enemy's defenses during the Second World War, but is now impossible due to the development of high-precision weapons. Which have radically changed the situation on the battlefield, and do not make it possible to concentrate artillery as before. 

Therefore, guided bombs from aircraft, which still retain the ability to concentrate strikes, may well become a lifesaver for a systemic breakthrough of fortifications, and if economically feasible, it is more profitable than paying payments for injury and death. This is even if we do not take into account the importance of saving lives, but simply calculate the economy head-on.

Therefore, strikes on the frontline zone are useful and necessary, but the experience of war suggests that it is necessary to synchronize the interaction between the VKS and the infantry attack. So that immediately after bomb strike, our stormtroopers would deal with the dug-up fortifications, and they would also continue to plow through the lines of fortifications, leaving no chance for the enemy. And exchange his personnel for relatively inexpensive smart cast iron." ( https://t.me/rusengineer/6835 )

[Roman Alymov]

One of the consequences of sky dominated by drones (and infantry constantly hiding in covers) is possibility of individual soldier just bring in AT mine/heavy charge and blow teh bunker while nobody on guard, like done by this pro-Russian in Rabotino region. Back in WWII it was impossible

https://t.me/infomil_live/16281

[Roman Alymov]

Another attempt to use Yak-52 Soviet training air;pale as anti-drone fighter

[MiGG0]

Would not be much easier just get forward firing .50cal for pilot and shoot those drones down? Like in WWII.

[Roman Alymov]

16 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Would not be much easier just get forward firing .50cal for pilot and shoot those drones down? Like in WWII.

It is not so easy to install .50 on YaK-52, align it with gunsight etc. Nothing impossible, but will take some effort.

[MiGG0]

5 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

It is not so easy to install .50 on YaK-52, align it with gunsight etc. Nothing impossible, but will take some effort.

Relatively that should be fucking easy compared to many other things done during this war. Just bolt couple .50 to outside of wings and  have pilot reflector sight. It does not need to be pretty in first phase...

Edited March 24 by MiGG0

[Yama]

I don't know if Yak-52 has any kind of hardpoints for external stores: if it has, then something like 7.62 helicopter gun pod should be fairly simple to install. 50cal will probably get bit too large and heavy.

Valmet Vinka, which was somewhat lighter and weaker than Yak-52, had four underwing hardpoints, although they were scarcely ever used.