War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[MiGG0]

APS systems are automated. Skills you need is just to turn it on….

[Stefan Kotsch]

2 hours ago, TrustMe said:

Wasn't the Soviet decision to got for ERA instead of APS was because ERA worked and APS didn't?

I think it was first of all a question of the huge costs for APS and also the always poor capacity of industry. 

As an example. I refer to the impossibility of equipping the T-72 with an adequate 1G42 gunners main sight  instead of the outdated TPD-K1. It was too expensive and you couldn't produce enough quantities.

[Roman Alymov]

5 hours ago, alejandro_ said:

Perhaps Roman can clarify, but it should be grenades/ammunition dropped by drones.

You are right, original word used is "скиди" - literally "something that is dropped", bomblets or granades dropped by drones. Pro-Russians usually say "сбросы"  - it is marginal difference, for example "discountы, price reductionы" in Russian is "скидки".

[crazyinsane105]

Trophy style system is good for ATGMs that aren’t top attack. FPV drones on the other hand can maneuver in areas that are otherwise blinded by APS. A skilled operator will just have the drone hover maybe half a meter off the ground and fly in low and pop up last second, hence negating any advantage Trophy can give. Trophy can’t engage targets under 50 meters, and at a certain angle it can’t detect threats too close to the ground. Plenty of times Hamas managed to evade Trophy with homemade RPGs using just these two tactics. 
 

 

[Sinistar]

the slow speeds possible with the copter type drones might also escape the search radar's detection envelope

in the final approach as the operator slows down to a hover as you often see

in terms of effectiveness the copter types seem to have the most perverse effect against everything given their low costs and relatively weak payloads probably more than any other weapon for their ability to bypass or ignore the heaviest armor types or arrangement of add on armors

 

 

[On the way]

16 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

There was a huge rush on to get kit into Ukraine to fill the gap. Not so easy to pull it out to reequip it with Trophy. The only feasible way to do that is inside Ukraine, and is anyone really going to want to put western techs that far forward so they can get shot at?

There is also another point to remember. Im not aware any of those systems were developed with drones in mind. im sure they could be adjusted to deal with them, but who is going to want to risk their sales that it doesnt work?

I think we have to recognise, pretty much all the investment the Soviets made in APS was completely wasted, because it needed skilled crews to make it work. The Russian army likely for that reason didnt want to invest in it, and probably wont get it in any numbers till Armata arrives on the battlefield. If it ever does of course.

Western tanks are still being delivered in batches to UKR. No reason why they can't be fitted with APS before they leave for UKR. Especially weaker armour models like Leo 1. I am sure there are alot of western techs in country now. Servicing western planes, radar systems, etc. They are just on the low and low. Nothing some generous hazard pay can't solve. And they will be well behind the front lines in secret locations. The same locations that retrofit cope cages and what not to Western armor. 

[MiGG0]

APS needs evolve to take account better engament arc (even top attack from bomblets) and  image based identification (thermals) to detect reliably incoming drones.

Drones biggest strenght is their low cost and numbers. They can saturate any defence eventually. (You could send 100 drones for single AFV and it still would be bargain). Some laser based APS could (cheap per shot, ”unlimited” ammo, can cover 360deg) work against drones if they wont atrack simultenausly (like swarm drones)

[On the way]

7 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Trophy style system is good for ATGMs that aren’t top attack. FPV drones on the other hand can maneuver in areas that are otherwise blinded by APS. A skilled operator will just have the drone hover maybe half a meter off the ground and fly in low and pop up last second, hence negating any advantage Trophy can give. Trophy can’t engage targets under 50 meters, and at a certain angle it can’t detect threats too close to the ground. Plenty of times Hamas managed to evade Trophy with homemade RPGs using just these two tactics. 
 

 

I understand that. But they still have to deploy APS to see what their limitations are and then develop solutions to it. Leaving it at home and not using it because they can't allegedly handle FPV doesn't solve anything. 

[On the way]

2 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

APS needs evolve to take account better engament arc (even top attack from bomblets) and  image based identification (thermals) to detect reliably incoming drones.

Drones biggest strenght is their low cost and numbers. They can saturate any defence eventually. (You could send 100 drones for single AFV and it still would be bargain). Some laser based APS could (cheap per shot, ”unlimited” ammo, can cover 360deg) work against drones if they wont atrack simultenausly (like swarm drones)

Ok, but that is not my question. Why haven't they been deployed? Sending 100 drones for an AFV is not the norm. Most of the time, it's one to three or something like that. The APS should not be saturated. Maybe the APS cannot defend against top down attack, but that is not the only way tanks are attacked. There is still RPGs, ATGW with no top down capabilities, other tanks, etc. Stuff that APS is designed for. And yet they are not deployed in UKR

[Stefan Kotsch]

 Another open question is the energy supply for APS. Energy isn't available in unlimited quantities, especially for the older tanks. Currently, only very few tanks are equipped with an APU. And also the APU can’t do magic either.

[Stuart Galbraith]

51 minutes ago, On the way said:

Western tanks are still being delivered in batches to UKR. No reason why they can't be fitted with APS before they leave for UKR. Especially weaker armour models like Leo 1. I am sure there are alot of western techs in country now. Servicing western planes, radar systems, etc. They are just on the low and low. Nothing some generous hazard pay can't solve. And they will be well behind the front lines in secret locations. The same locations that retrofit cope cages and what not to Western armor. 

You are still going to need someone to maintain it. There is no Ukrainian experience with APS. Im not sure western experience is as great as you say, I think its just Poland that currently fits one.

[MiGG0]

1 hour ago, On the way said:

Ok, but that is not my question. Why haven't they been deployed? Sending 100 drones for an AFV is not the norm. Most of the time, it's one to three or something like that. The APS should not be saturated. Maybe the APS cannot defend against top down attack, but that is not the only way tanks are attacked. There is still RPGs, ATGW with no top down capabilities, other tanks, etc. Stuff that APS is designed for. And yet they are not deployed in UKR

Ofcourse we dont know for sure, but I did answer your question. APS is not evolved enought (yet) to give that much of protection against drones is best quess. Last fall RUS said that their newest T90 tanks will get arena, but we still havent seen one and most logical reason is that it is not realiable enought even in their test.
 

RPG/ATGM usage has been very rare as drones have pretty much take their role in every level and AFV fight very rarely close to enemy infantry anymore (AFV are used mainly just battle taxis transportoitiin your infantry close to enemy). Drones basically have replaced even tanks in close fire support role.

 

 

Edited March 15 by MiGG0

[On the way]

7 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Ofcourse we dont know for sure, but I did answer your question. APS is not evolved enought (yet) to give that much of protection against drones is best quess. Last fall RUS said that their newest T90 tanks will get arena, but we still havent seen one and most logical reason is that it is not realiable enought even in their test.
 

RPG/ATGM usage has been very rare as drones have pretty much take their role in every level and AFV fight very rarely close to enemy infantry anymore (AFV are used mainly just battle taxis transportoitiin your infantry close to enemy).

 

 

Ok, But didn't Israeli tanks move into Gaza with Trophy APS. Seems to have worked for them. Did not read of any IDF tank losses to RPGs and ATGWs

[MiGG0]

2 minutes ago, On the way said:

Ok, But didn't Israeli tanks move into Gaza with Trophy APS. Seems to have worked for them. Did not read of any IDF tank losses to RPGs and ATGWs

But RPG and ATGW are not main threat in UKR. It is drones, mines and artillery and all of those were pretty non existent in Gaza.

[urbanoid]

New missile from Ukraine, based on Neptune (the one of Moskva fame)

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1900875464010289240

 

 

[JWB]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1900897419354632440

Ukraine has officially fielded a 1000km (620 mi) range variant of the Neptune cruise missile, and has used it in combat for the first time.

This new variant gives Ukraine a domestically produced cruise missile with nearly double the range of the Franco-British Storm Shadow.

[crazyinsane105]

9 hours ago, On the way said:

I understand that. But they still have to deploy APS to see what their limitations are and then develop solutions to it. Leaving it at home and not using it because they can't allegedly handle FPV doesn't solve anything. 

And risk having the same APS get captured by the Russians, so they can fine tune their ATGMs against it? There’s a reason we stripped off our DU armor off Abrams before sending it to Ukraine…

[crazyinsane105]

14 hours ago, On the way said:

Ok, But didn't Israeli tanks move into Gaza with Trophy APS. Seems to have worked for them. Did not read of any IDF tank losses to RPGs and ATGWs

Huh? There are plenty of videos which show Merkavas on fire due to RPG strikes. I posted a number of them in other threads. Without a doubt Trophy limited the number of tanks and vehicles being damaged by RPGs, but to think it made the IDF invincible is far from it. 
 

And the Israelis aren’t about to publish official numbers of tanks lost due to enemy action. That wouldn’t be smart of them to do so either. Hence that’s why you haven’t read about it. I also posted official death statements regarding Israeli tankers. Who knows how many were badly wounded. 

Edited March 15 by crazyinsane105

[crazyinsane105]

9 hours ago, On the way said:

Western tanks are still being delivered in batches to UKR. No reason why they can't be fitted with APS before they leave for UKR. Especially weaker armour models like Leo 1. I am sure there are alot of western techs in country now. Servicing western planes, radar systems, etc. They are just on the low and low. Nothing some generous hazard pay can't solve. And they will be well behind the front lines in secret locations. The same locations that retrofit cope cages and what not to Western armor. 

Trophy APS increases the weight of the vehicle by a few tons. And on top of that, the electrical demands for APS will exceed however much Leo1 can supply. The number of Western tanks that can reliably host APS is not large in number, and its even smaller in Ukraine since you have handfuls of advanced Western MBTs in Ukraine 

[old_goat]

Just wondering, how many western tanks, IFVs, or SP artillery remains in ukraine?

I think they lost the vast majority of Leopard-2s and M1s. Probably they are running out of Bradleys too, since they are becoming more and more rare. As for artillery, polish Krab SP guns suffered horrific losses. M109 numbers are also probably low. What remains after all of this?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Our Ukrainian contributor said they were down to 3 Challenger 2's. No idea of the truth of that. Its been a very brutal war, and it highlights how misguided we were to run down our war stocks.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, old_goat said:

Just wondering, how many western tanks, IFVs, or SP artillery remains in ukraine?

I think they lost the vast majority of Leopard-2s and M1s. Probably they are running out of Bradleys too, since they are becoming more and more rare. As for artillery, polish Krab SP guns suffered horrific losses. M109 numbers are also probably low. What remains after all of this?

  I do not have numeric data, but there was opinion expressed among pro-Russians that percentage of Western armor and artillery in overall armament inventory used by pro-Ukrainians on the frontline is not decreasing but increasing, as old Soviet stocks of both complete vehicles and spare parts for them are running out, while Western supply is nearly unlimited (especially when it comes to "War on terror" leftover MRAPs).

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Its been a very brutal war

Brutal war? A Pleonasm.  For a long time we had only suppressed what a war in reality looks like.

Edited March 16 by Stefan Kotsch

[MiGG0]

2 hours ago, old_goat said:

Just wondering, how many western tanks, IFVs, or SP artillery remains in ukraine?

I think they lost the vast majority of Leopard-2s and M1s. Probably they are running out of Bradleys too, since they are becoming more and more rare. As for artillery, polish Krab SP guns suffered horrific losses. M109 numbers are also probably low. What remains after all of this?

17-19 M1 has been confirmed lost (of 31)

~50 Leopard 2 (all variants) has been confirmed lost (total of 167 has been mentioned to be sent by different countries, but not all have arrived in UKR)

~150 Bradleys has been confirmed lost  (of about 300 sent)

 

So around ~50% ballpark confirmed losses?

[JWB]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1900989213182431315

Earlier today, a Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 Fulcrum dropped the remaining  Russian-held E97 highway bridge span at Oleshky. 

Seen here, a French-supplied AASM guided bomb slams into the bridge.

Edited March 16 by JWB