War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[JWB]

2 hours ago, mkenny said:

............ their Foreign Policy .............

France cannot be trusted because of the multiple disasters created by them.

In Iraq France demanded to be the sole occupiers of  Baghdad which was totally unacceptable.

[JWB]

 

[mkenny]

9 minutes ago, JWB said:

France cannot be trusted because of the multiple disasters created by them.

In Iraq France demanded to be the sole occupiers of  Baghdad which was totally unacceptable.

Yep as everyone knows only gawds favorite country is allowed to issue demands and then enforce them. 

Rules Based Order, no problem when you (and you alone) make the rules.

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

2 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Yep as everyone knows only gawds favorite country is allowed to issue demands and then enforce them. 

Only the USA? The French position was rejected other members of the coalition. 

 

3 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Rules Based Order .........

Says countries cannot  steal land from other countries.

[JWB]

 

[crazyinsane105]

 

[Soldier36]

The Russian army has started using new ammunition for FPV drones in Ukraine. They can be called new conditionally, since they are homemade and created from sections of a hose with a powder charge used in the UR-77 "Meteorite" mine clearing units, also known as the "Snake Gorynych". Details in the video.

 

 

[mkenny]

1 hour ago, JWB said:

Says countries cannot  steal land from other countries.

But 'you' can steal any money 'they' have in your banks.

'Rules Based Order', gotta love it!

[sunday]

1 hour ago, mkenny said:

Yep as everyone knows only gawds favorite country is allowed to issue demands and then enforce them. 

Rules Based Order, no problem when you (and you alone) make the rules.

While mostly agreeing on your opinion on those rules, it could be said that USA was the country putting more effort, thus leading the coalition.

[Stefan Kotsch]

13 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Rules Based Order, no problem when you (and you alone) make the rules.

That makes me laugh. Russia sits on the UN Security Council and is responsible for ensuring that the (rules based) UN Carta is adhered to.

[alejandro_]

This needs confirmation, and number of candidates seems to high, but there is a copy of an official? document.

The Romanian Ministry of Defense has issued a report on the training of Ukrainian pilots to operate F-16s. It states the following:
- Out of 50 pilots, only 3 passed
- Low level of dedication to study and little inclination to learn English
- Problems with physical condition and alcohol consumption

It is also known that a first group of F-16s arrived in Ukraine today, although there is no confirmation from kyiv

 

[Josh]

3 hours ago, mkenny said:

Hence the desperate attempts  to manufacture a myth of Russian 'meat wave' losses. There is a total lack of any real engagement of the progress of the ground war because many refuse to accept  the reality.

Actual progress over the last ten months is about 20 km at the deepest penetration. The Russians unquestionably have the initiative, but territorial gains are fairly marginal. Given a steady stream of western support, the war could easily extend for a couple years.

[mkenny]

16 minutes ago, Josh said:

Actual progress over the last ten months is about 20 km at the deepest penetration. The Russians unquestionably have the initiative, but territorial gains are fairly marginal. Given a steady stream of western support, the war could easily extend for a couple years.

Territorial gains  are guaranteed once you defeat the enemy Army.   If (a not impossible 'if') Ukraine runs out of soldiers it's game over.

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 hour ago, alejandro_ said:

Out of 50 pilots, only 3 passed
- Low level of dedication to study and little inclination to learn English
- Problems with physical condition and alcohol consumption

That sounds strange. I have never heard anything like it before. High motivation has been reported in the land forces so far. For example.

And where is the original source?

Edited July 31 by Stefan Kotsch

[alejandro_]

Hello Stefan, if you click on link there is document in twitter -or a page of one-:

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

That sounds strange. I have never heard anything like it before. High motivation has been reported in the land forces so far. For example.

And where is the original source?

Definitely does sound fishy. Many Americans who trained with Ukrainians on HIMARS and Patriots said the exact opposite, that the Ukrainians were damn proficient and very quick learners.

 

[Ssnake]

47 / 50 failing to qualify sounds like a leadership problem to me.

[Yama]

2 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

That sounds strange. I have never heard anything like it before. High motivation has been reported in the land forces so far. For example.

This was reported in the past, but perhaps after 2.5 years of war, motivated people are getting harder to find, even in the air force. Also, based on large number of recruits, program was maybe made up from prospective pilots, and large % of washouts is expected anyway (though 94% sounds still very excessive).

Another potential explanation is that Ukrainians may have seen long 'jump through every hoop' training program as overlong and unnecessary?

Or the report might just be fake, I can't tell.

[Josh]

3 hours ago, mkenny said:

Territorial gains  are guaranteed once you defeat the enemy Army.   If (a not impossible 'if') Ukraine runs out of soldiers it's game over.

Indeed, but we do not seem near that point.

[glenn239]

16 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

   Alternative to mass mobilizatioin is losing the war.

I see no connection between mass mobilization and victory.  There is no point to Russia manning the front with more men than it can train, equip, supply, and routinely rotate out.  All that will happen is huge casualties, mass unrest in Russia, and increasing the likelihood that Ukraine will win the war.

Quote

Pro-Ukrainians allready have about 1300K armed men, with Eastern European untermensch next in line to be thrown into meatgrinder, and then real white men will come to the scene to pick up the fruits

 

Ukraine currently is losing the war and suffering massive to staggering casualties.  They have also undertaken a far larger mobilization than the Russians to accomplish this.  This is not evidence of impending Ukrainian victory, it is evidence that large mobilizations, mobilization beyond means, that these are not effective. 

Quote

  For example, Artyom Drabkin: "The situation with personnel in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is increasingly reminiscent of the spring of 2022. There are no good solutions, but delaying decision-making may lead to a repeat of autumn 2022 in the future for 8 months.

"Pro-Russians" have been calling for the collapse of the Russian army since 2022.  They had the Ukrainians on the Sea of Azov in 2022.  Their predictions are predictably bleak for self-serving political reasons.  In fact, the Russian army seems to just chug along like it always has.

Quote

Evgeny "Prapor" Skripnik "A friend left the front on vacation to relatives in the Kursk region.
Yesterday, five drones from Ukraine flew over him in the courtyard of the Kursk relatives.

You wanted this war to happen, you knew it could be a rough ride, and in the past you've shrugged even at the concept of nuclear exchanges.  Now you're getting excited at some drone attacks in Kursk?  That doesn't make sense to me.

Quote

Release Strelkov from prison!

 

Please,  quote me Stuart, recite Vogon poetry, tell me about the nuances of Russian history in an unbroken 2500 word scroll in which you remember to mention that Westerners understand nothing of the topic.  Anything but more of Strelkov.

Quote

  Dniper bridges will stand safe, at least untill de-facto regime change in Russia. Russia is pumping NG and oil into Ukraine - and is even paying "transit fee" for that (despite it is well known that significant part of this energy is consumed inside Ukraine).

 

 I don't care about any of that.  I asked you whether the time was approaching when dropping the bridges over the Dnieper could attain a decisive strategic effect.  The Ukrainian army is punch drunk and overcommitted, would dropping the bridges cut the  bulk of it on the eastern side and lead to mass surrenders?  Or is the moment premature?  That is the question, not whether you think that Putin the Surrender Monkey will refuse to do that because this war is some bizarre attempt to give in to the West.

Edited July 31 by glenn239

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Ssnake said:

47 / 50 failing to qualify sounds like a leadership problem to me.

Or pilots smart enough to understand between which of passing or failing their pilot training passes or fails them the Darwin test.

[Yama]

42 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Ukraine currently is losing the war and suffering massive to staggering casualties.  They have also undertaken a far larger mobilization than the Russians to accomplish this.  This is not evidence of impending Ukrainian victory, it is evidence that large mobilizations, mobilization beyond means, that these are not effective. 

I don't think Ukraine is suffering 'staggering' casualties, as they now seem content to make small retreats in stead of defending a hopeless position to the last (as in Avdiivka etc). 

I think Ukraine still has sizable operational reserve, and I think it is possible they will undertake some kind of offensive. Maybe something on Donetsk front, where Russians are advancing and do not have yet laid down massive minefields and fortifications. Or maybe some crazy risky waterborne outflanking maneuver at Crimea/Kherson direction.

If Trump wins elections (which seems probable at this point), he is almost certain to curtail support for Ukraine if it looks like Ukraine is going to lose anyway. And that is how it is going to look, if situation continues like this until end of year.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Or pilots smart enough to understand between which of passing or failing their pilot training passes or fails them the Darwin test.

They wouldn’t be in the program at all without volunteering. You can’t make a pilot at gunpoint the way you can an infantryman. That’s like if I held a gun to your head and said “write me a web app!”.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

I don't think Ukraine is suffering 'staggering' casualties, as they now seem content to make small retreats in stead of defending a hopeless position to the last (as in Avdiivka etc). 

I think Ukraine still has sizable operational reserve, and I think it is possible they will undertake some kind of offensive. Maybe something on Donetsk front, where Russians are advancing and do not have yet laid down massive minefields and fortifications. Or maybe some crazy risky waterborne outflanking maneuver at Crimea/Kherson direction.

If Trump wins elections (which seems probable at this point), he is almost certain to curtail support for Ukraine if it looks like Ukraine is going to lose anyway. And that is how it is going to look, if situation continues like this until end of year.

I doubt Ukraine is capable of offensive actions right now, but I suspect it is trading ground for resources because if Trump wins, the ammunition spigot turns off again. I personally doubt Ukrainian success or failure on the battlefield has any effect. I think they are preparing for that and reserving resources for a fight where only the Europeans help them.

 

ETA: I also would say at this point the U.S. election is roughly a coin toss. Biden dropping out scrambled everything and most polling in swing states is now within margin of error, so roughly a dead heat.

Edited August 1 by Josh