War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[glenn239]

On 7/24/2024 at 6:47 AM, Stefan Kotsch said:

This makes me thoughtful. Why don't we see this tremendous power on the battlefield? The statement contradicts everything we have seen so far.

Russian tactics seem to be incremental advances by minimal forces under maximal firepower preparation, followed by rotation of another unit into line to continue the advance.  So the answer to your question is that if all 3,500 claimed Russian tanks were used all at once the result would be much worse for the Russians than if they were used in small numbers, incrementally, unit by unit, over the entire front and a number of months.

Edited July 30 by glenn239

[Stefan Kotsch]

I sense something like hoping for the Wunderwaffe?

[seahawk]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Russian tactics seem to be incremental advances by minimal forces under maximal firepower preparation, followed by rotation of another unit into line to continue the advance.  So the answer to your question is that if all 3,500 claimed Russian tanks were used all at once the result would be much worse for the Russians than if they were used in small numbers, incrementally, unit by unit, over the entire front and a number of months.

Most people lack the deep understanding of the war, that you posses. They do not understand that Russia does not need to capture land, this will come at the end anyway, but kill anti-Russian fighters. And that is what they are doing with an extreme efficiency at the moment. The losses of the anti-Russian forces are devastating and they won`t be able to sustain them for much longer.

[Roman Alymov]

19 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

I sense something like hoping for the Wunderwaffe?

Current version of Wunderwaffe is F-16 (before that it was Javelin, HIMARS, small-diameter bombs, ATACMS etc). But real Wunderwaffe of this war is Made in China DJI Mavic and DiY FPV drones made of Made in China componnets. 

[Roman Alymov]

Two pro-Rus soldiers filmed crossing "grey zone" on electric scooters/pushbikes. It is obviously temporary solution (as now  record heat wave in the region have turned field roads into bone-dry surfaces but first rains would make pushbiles useless) but is obviously helping to cross 5-10 km of open terrain under scroching heat, with heavy bodyarmor and weapons and as quickly as possible to reduce exposure to drones

https://t.me/anna_news/69041

[RETAC21]

3 hours ago, seahawk said:

Most people lack the deep understanding of the war, that you posses. They do not understand that Russia does not need to capture land, this will come at the end anyway, but kill anti-Russian fighters. And that is what they are doing with an extreme efficiency at the moment. The losses of the anti-Russian forces are devastating and they won`t be able to sustain them for much longer.

[yochlol]

2 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Yeah he's that good

[Soldier36]

The Russian Su-35S fighter jet shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 for the first time with an R-37M missile at a colossal range of 213 km. This was reported by specialized Russian resources. It is worth noting that there are no photos or videos confirming this, in fact, it is impossible to confirm this, since the Ukrainian media do not publish footage of destroyed equipment. As reported, the Russian Su-35S fighter jet used ultra-long-range R-37M missiles, a link to a video about them is in the comments to the video. The MiG-29 was detected due to the fact that the Su-35S fighter jet is equipped with the N035 Irbis radar. The Irbis radar has a maximum peak power of up to 20 kW. Which allows it to detect targets at a range of up to 400 km. The MiG-29 has an RCS of approximately 5 m2, the N035 Irbis radar can detect an air target with an RCS of 3 m2 at a range of up to 400 km.

 

 

[Soldier36]

Russia is increasing the production of gunpowder, solid rocket fuel and explosives, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev reported. In order for gunpowder production in Russia to operate at the limit of its capabilities, new plants are being created and old ones are being re-equipped. Now the plants regularly produce pyroxylin gunpowder for all types of weapons, artillery systems of all calibers, but there are problems with the supply of raw materials. The fact is that gunpowder production requires nitrocellulose produced from cotton, its production is concentrated in China and Uzbekistan. Since 2022, Russia has begun to actively buy nitrocellulose on world markets, but this was not enough, and China has also limited the supply of nitrocellulose to world markets. Since 2015, Russia has begun to decide to develop a new technology for the production of gunpowder from flax. As it turned out, new gunpowder from wood and flax cellulose is no worse than the usual one. The advantages of flax powder are higher energy than cotton, stability of characteristics, this allows to reduce the weight of the powder used to 8% and get the same values as when using nitrocellulose powder. The price of flax powder is up to 5 times lower, artillery shoots more accurately with shells with flax powder. Since the spread when shooting with the use of standard powders is 3-5 meters, and for flax powder this spread is 0.5 meters. It is worth noting that Russia grows flax in record quantities. In the future, the share of wood and flax cellulose in the production of gunpowder will reach 60-70%.

 

 

[sunday]

Now this is an interesting topic: Why flax was not so used to manufacture nitrocellulose before?

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, sunday said:

Now this is an interesting topic: Why flax was not so used to manufacture nitrocellulose before?

Flux is mostly grown in Central and Northern Russia, refions known to bad climate and poor soils, so not any match to cotton grown in nice* climate of Central Asia. No surprise cotton-based gunpowder was traditionally the main choice. 

   Actually the more logical question is "Why  wood cellulose was not used"? As for me. it was because of 1)No need for it (even during WWII Central Asia was far away from enemy's reach, so no need to look for cotton replacement)

2) Development of technology  - now the equipment available in Russia to process wood cellulose is much better, following decades of progress in paper production etc.

*provided enough water

[KV7]

This article covers the issue:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317753426_Cellulose_nitrates_from_intermediate_flax_straw

[sunday]

Thanks, guys!

[KV7]

Some new anti UAV screen using rubber sheets at the turret rear:

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Current version of Wunderwaffe is F-16 (before that it was Javelin, HIMARS, small-diameter bombs, ATACMS etc). But real Wunderwaffe of this war is Made in China DJI Mavic and DiY FPV drones made of Made in China componnets. 

Or those long boasted of Armatas, Tornado S and 2S35'S.

[Roman Alymov]

17 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Or those long boasted of Armatas, Tornado S and 2S35'S.

No, the practical war have proven the decision of dropping mass production of Armatas was correct as they are not providing any increase of performance vs. T-90 (or even old good T-55) on modern drone-dominated battlefield. TornadoS is just guided missile, no miracles - useful tool but no miracles. 2C 35 is just SP gun, with few extra % of performance provided by minor improvements but not even close to be game changer.

    Real game changer is avbility to mobilise million+ army - but Russian leadership will not make this step untill next collapse of frontline like one that happened the end of 2022 (pro-Russians expect it to happen this autumn). They are shit scared of arming Russian people, to the extent they would prefer NATO occupation.

[glenn239]

17 hours ago, seahawk said:

Most people lack the deep understanding of the war, that you posses. They do not understand that Russia does not need to capture land, this will come at the end anyway, but kill anti-Russian fighters. 

It's simply a question of paying attention to what is happening and drawing obvious conclusions from there.  If the Russians have 3,500 tanks in their inventory and only use them sporadically, to me the conclusion is that the tanks are not nearly as important to a successful advance as the preparation, which can be prolonged.

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

    Real game changer is avbility to mobilise million+ army - but Russian leadership will not make this step untill next collapse of frontline like one that happened the end of 2022 (pro-Russians expect it to happen this autumn). They are shit scared of arming Russian people, to the extent they would prefer NATO occupation.

You pitch the Putin the Surrender Monkey line routinely, but no one here seems to be buying.  As to your contention that mobilizing masses of manpower to the front is the key to victory, I reject the premise outright.  The result I think would be huge Russian casualties for gains nowhere near the losses.   

The real question, I think, is whether or not conditions are at least approaching the point for finally dropping the Dnieper bridges. 

 

[seahawk]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

It's simply a question of paying attention to what is happening and drawing obvious conclusions from there.  If the Russians have 3,500 tanks in their inventory and only use them sporadically, to me the conclusion is that the tanks are not nearly as important to a successful advance as the preparation, which can be prolonged.

It is a matter of strategy. Russia does not have the manpower to occupy large parts of hostile territory, so they need to kill or displace all hostiles before they take over the territory. So they advance slowly and steadily, limiting their own losses to a very small amount and keep killing enemies through superior tactics, systems and firepower.

[Roman Alymov]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

As to your contention that mobilizing masses of manpower to the front is the key to victory, I reject the premise outright.  The result I think would be huge Russian casualties for gains nowhere near the losses.   

First, i do not understand what is "Surrender Monkey" - as Putin is sort of chairman of collective rule of Russian elite, and this elite is by definition pro-Western (as EVERY member of this elite was cherrypicked into power in the years when West was in total control of Russia and there was no way for person with any anti-Western views to make any career). Yes this elite is evolving (due to arrogant and incompetent decisions by West that made their pro-Western lifestyle impossible) but this evolutio will take years if not decades, as the system was created for 30 years or even longer (as late USSR was allready West-centric), Re "no one here seems to be buying" - no surprise, as very few people here if any are USSR collapse survivors who were able to observe enents from inside.

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

 As to your contention that mobilizing masses of manpower to the front is the key to victory, I reject the premise outright.  The result I think would be huge Russian casualties for gains nowhere near the losses.   

    Alternative to mass mobilizatioin is loosing the war. Pro-Ukrainians allready have about 1300K armed men, with Eastern European untermensch next in line to be thrown into meatgrinder, and then real white men will come to the scene to pick up the fruits. Yes mass mobilization means massive losses, but failing the war means even bigger losses. Note is not my opinion, but sort of consensus view of people closely familiar with frontline situation. 

  For example, Artyom Drabkin: "The situation with personnel in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is increasingly reminiscent of the spring of 2022. There are no good solutions, but delaying decision-making may lead to a repeat of autumn 2022 in the future for 8 months. Judging by the fact that the decision-making process has not changed, the political leadership will wait until the last moment." (https://t.me/drabkin/131)

Evgeny "Prapor" Skripnik "A friend left the front on vacation to relatives in the Kursk region.
Yesterday, five drones from Ukraine flew over him in the courtyard of the Kursk relatives.
As once in 1941 , out of impotence to do something , we follow them with our eyes in our defenseless Russian sky. 
We grind our teeth and clench our fists .
The government is afraid to arm the Russian people to the point of trembling in its knees .
Otherwise, not one such drone would have flown further than the first Russian village .

As we can see, this shame is only getting worse every day!

Release Strelkov from prison!
Let him bring order to the country already !
Although who are we telling this to ?

It is already clear to the child that the ruling liberals are not coping .
They will perish themselves and ruin us ! " ( https://t.me/donbass_skripnik/15447 )

Viktors "Black colonel" Alksnis

"At a time when the Russian army proved unable to achieve a radical turnaround in the fighting in the zone of SVO, new and new plans for a "peaceful settlement in Ukraine" are emerging. Basically, they come down to Russia's recognition of its defeat and its unconditional surrender. 

--------

But the role of the United States, NATO and Ukraine is very limited, because the weak are always beaten.  The leadership of the Russian Federation is mainly to blame, which showed us beautiful cartoons and hung noodles about the second most powerful army in the world. But in reality, they did not deal with the problems of the combat capability of the Russian army and rearmament with modern weapons, getting off with tank biathlon, storming the plywood Reichstag and building an Orthodox church in Patriot Park. 

Moreover, it deliberately pursued the policy of the largest deindustrialization in world history, destroying thousands and thousands of industrial enterprises, including the military-industrial complex, which eventually led to huge problems in providing the army and navy with everything necessary for the war, including SVO". ( https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/1430 )

   It is hard to imagine people more distant in terms of background and life experience then thee men whose opinions are quoted above. So them coming to the same conclusions is indicative of real situation.

6 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The real question, I think, is whether or not conditions are at least approaching the point for finally dropping the Dnieper bridges. 

  Dniper bridges will stand safe, at least untill de-facto regime change in Russia. Russia is pumping NG and oil into Ukraine - and is even paying "transit fee" for that (despite it is well known that significant part of this energy is consumed inside Ukraine). NATO tanks in Ukraine are fueled by diesel de-facto paid for by Russian people. European ammunition and weapons plants are running on Russian gas - more over, FREE Russian gas.

[ink]

I think we're again steering away from military technical discussion a bit here.

[mkenny]

6 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

First, i do not understand what is "Surrender Monkey" -

Commonly used  describe the French when they did not do as most other western nations did in The Gulf War- lie down and let the USA dictate their Foreign Policy.  It is lifted from a cartoon (The Simpsons) and became the favourite slogan of  right-wing loons whenever France entered any conversation. 

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Commonly used  describe the French when they did not do as most other western nations did in The Gulf War- lie down and let the USA dictate their Foreign Policy.  It is lifted from a cartoon (The Simpsons) and became the favourite slogan of  right-wing loons whenever France entered any conversation. 

Thank you for explanation - unfortunatelly i am failing to see how it is connected to Russian affairs.

[alejandro_]

Russia is advancing further in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces are under pressure. The momentum is with the Russians, says military expert Reisner on ZDFheute live.

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/front-lage-charkiw-kriegsverlauf-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html

[mkenny]

1 hour ago, alejandro_ said:

Russia is advancing further in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces are under pressure. The momentum is with the Russians, says military expert Reisner on ZDFheute live.

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/front-lage-charkiw-kriegsverlauf-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html

Hence the desperate attempts  to manufacture a myth of Russian 'meat wave' losses. There is a total lack of any real engagement of the progress of the ground war because many refuse to accept  the reality.