War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[Roman Alymov]

Photos of what is believed to be  Mark 82 bomb, part of GBU-38 JDAM (JDAM-ER) set, found by pro-Russians. Probably the rest of the set is comewhere nearby, broken away by impact https://t.me/milinfolive/126544

[Yama]

12 hours ago, ink said:

Tricky question. Officially, none. Serbian arms aren't being sold or sent to Ukraine like they are from other European countries. They're ending up there via third parties, which makes it impossible to track quantities.

Serbia, real-world Yuri Orlov...

"And while the biggest arms dealer in the world is your boss - the President of the United States, who ships more merchandise in a day than I do in a year - sometimes it's embarrassing to have his fingerprints on the guns. Sometimes he needs a freelancer like me to supply forces he can't be seen supplying. So. You call me evil, but unfortunately for you, I'm a necessary evil."

[ink]

4 hours ago, Yama said:

Serbia, real-world Yuri Orlov...

"And while the biggest arms dealer in the world is your boss - the President of the United States, who ships more merchandise in a day than I do in a year - sometimes it's embarrassing to have his fingerprints on the guns. Sometimes he needs a freelancer like me to supply forces he can't be seen supplying. So. You call me evil, but unfortunately for you, I'm a necessary evil."

Ha! Yes, something like that!

Except more of a member of the Yuri Orlov club.

The route through Bulgaria, established since Syria, makes it seem more like a collective effort.

[Perun]

19 hours ago, KV7 said:

On the barrel forging issue, see the link. 

It is however unclear how many of these 26 forges are in working order. I am a little surprised the USSR didn't have their own model.
 

 

Does anyone have link to that CIA report

[Stefan Kotsch]

Vor 27 Minuten sagte Perun:

Hat jemand einen Link zu diesem CIA-Bericht

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP84M00044R000200590001-4.pdf

Can be found on page 7.

Edited July 23, 2024 by Stefan Kotsch

[Perun]

17 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP84M00044R000200590001-4.pdf

Can be found on page 7.

Thanks mate

[KV7]

Note this capacity for 24 000 large bore barrels is estimated as the output of one SXP-55 and one SXP-85 radial forge. The SXP-55 has a listed maximum external diameter of 550mm and can produce guns up to 203mm. The SXP-85 has a larger maximum external diameter and the CIA considered it to be used for 203 and 240 mm barrels. Apparently SXP-55 can cold forge intermediate blanks produced by hot forging on SXP-85 for 203/240 mm class barrels.

The SXP-55 is installed at Motovilikha Plants and it is the one seen in operation in the visit. The SXP-85 is according to the report also in the same complex.

This is discussed here:

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/doc_0000496800

 

Edited July 23, 2024 by KV7

[Stefan Kotsch]

Then we have this. So there is only one such machine for large calibers?

[Stefan Kotsch]

In April 2023, MOTOVILIKHA issued a tender for spare parts for the GFM SXP-55. The tender ended in May.

https://is-zakupki.ru/tender/view/36423570

It is not entirely clear who ultimately sold these parts.

[sunday]

34 minutes ago, KV7 said:

Note this capacity for 24 000 large bore barrels is estimated as the output of one SXP-55 and one SXP-85 radial forge. The SXP-55 has a listed maximum external diameter of 550mm and can produce 152mm guns. The SXP-85 has a larger maximum external diameter and the CIA considered it to be used for 203 and 240 mm barrels. Apparently SXP-55 also can cold forge intermediate blanks produced by hot forging on SXP-85 for 203/240 mm class barrels.

The SXP-55 is installed at Motovilikha Plants and it is the one seen in operation in the visit:
 

 

 

Looks like those GFM machines use the same principle that was developed during WWII to make MG42 barrels, but I very muck like to see how they make that work for large caliber artillery pieces.

 

[Yama]

On 7/18/2024 at 2:18 PM, bojan said:

Nice, but as I have said my estimate is that blanks production is a chokepoint. For finalizing from blanks rule of thumb is that decent sized production line factory can make one barrel / 3-4 days (that is maximum capacity, limited not by the speed of the machines but by the need of heat and cool cycles of the barrels, so it can not be sped up). That is also probably source for article's estimate of ~100 barrels per year per factory. Unless factories have multiple barrel production facilities, but I am not sure about that, since demands for artillery before 24.2.2022. was low and no factory probably found it economical to keep multiple expensive lines running in parallel for a relatively limited production.

Unfortunately IDK what is a blank production capability in either Russia or Europe. IIRC Germany gave up blanks production in 2010s, Slovenians in the '90s, French in the 2000s, Fins in the '90 or 2000s.  IDK who else had it (Sweden, Italy, Spain, Romania for sure), but a lot of those "old" production was limited in the length of the blanks they could produce, mostly to 39 caliber pieces.

Finnish blank production was given up in early 90s due to quality issues. Blanks were bought from Belgium, Germany etc. after that. Also one batch was bought from USA but they were also substandard quality.

Barrel machining equipment still exists, but apparently has not been actually used for years.

[alejandro_]

https://news.err.ee/1609404514/major-general-ukraine-using-mobilization-to-patch-holes-in-front-line

Interview with Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Riho Ühtegi.  He has served as the commander of the Estonian Special Operations Force. Since 2019, he is the commander of the Estonian Defence League.

While Ukraine's mobilization goals, aimed at forming 10 new brigades, have been ambitious, in reality those mobilized are being used to plug gaps on the front line, reservist Major General Riho Ühtegi said Monday.

Speaking to ETV show "Ukraina Stuudio," Maj. Gen. Ühtegi, a former Defense League commander, said Ukraine is experiencing a personnel shortage.

Rounds of mobilization have not significantly alleviated this issue so far, he went on, adding that the leadership's goals with the new mobilization law have been substantial.

Maj. Gen. Ühtegi said: "They have hoped to form 10 new brigades – a brigade consists of about 5,000 to 6,000 men."

"However, up to now we have been seeing that those mobilized are essentially being used to patch holes on the front line in zones where units have suffered significant losses," he went on.

"The current situation is that Ukrainian units are actually below strength; units at the front are allowed to operate at about 60 percent capacity. Often these units exaggerate their numbers since otherwise they would be facing reformation or other consequences," Ühtegi said.

According to Ühtegi, the new fighters coming to the front lines are also inadequately trained, meaning a greater rate of injury of fatality.

"A week of training at a camp is not sufficient for engaging in full-scale trench warfare," Ühtegi continued.

"Trench warfare, in general, is very costly in terms of human lives because it is highly static; soldiers remain in the one line in the trenches, which means the enemy knows their positions well and can heavily bomb and fire upon those trenches," he added.

"Another problem if we are talking about rotation is that it represents a military tactical operation which requires special training. However, Ukrainians, especially these newer units, do not have the time to learn such rotation operations."

"The distances to be covered to reach the front line are very long, which means pauses or gaps in the front lines emerge - one unit leaves before another has arrived at its position. Naturally, the Russian side takes advantage of this," the major general said.

Ühtegi acknowledged that ideally, the basic training for Ukrainian soldiers should last a week, followed by training at a unit. However, the latter is often conducted by the units themselves, leading to widely varying levels of training quality.

"With the better units, the standard of training is quite good, but in more straightforward units that are being deployed to the trenches, that is often not the case, and this immediately impacts mobilization. The Ukrainians themselves rate the post-mobilization training as relatively poor," Ühtegi went on.

"They don't have much to complain about in terms of equipment; it's varied, but not bad. However, they have highlighted that instructors are inadequate, while the training is short. As a result, many of those mobilized aim to join elite units, where there is more hope of receiving proper training and thus a better chance of survival," Ühtegi continued.

Ukraine working to gain air superiority

Russia has been carrying out strikes against Ukraine using glide bombs, which have been difficult for Ukrainian forces to counter.

However, the long-awaited F-16 fighter jets provided by the west may change the dynamics.

On this, Ühtegi said: "F-16 fighters will certainly be helpful in this regard, as they are equipped with modern navigation and radar systems which allow them to detect the enemy from much farther away."

"They are armed with advanced missiles, which should significantly dampen the enthusiasm of Russian pilots when these F-16s appear on the front lines," he went on.

Ukraine is expected to deploy the F-16s soon, and according to Ühtegi, Ukraine is consistently working towards this by neutralizing Russian air defense systems and targeting Russian airfields.

"Naturally, this is one route, one way to prepare for achieving air superiority in air operations. Similarly, drone strikes on Russian airfields, which have increasingly targeted fighters and attack aircraft, can be classified under this effort. All these actions certainly relate to Ukraine's broader goal this year – to gain air superiority," he went on.

Political solution before military one

Maj. Gen. Ühtegi argued that while it is difficult to predict the near-term future of the war in Ukraine, he believes there will not be significant changes on the front line any time soon.

"it is likely in the future it will be such that there won't be major changes on the front; neither side is capable of concentrating large forces," he said.

"Ukraine may have a slight advantage as they can see better into what is happening behind Russian front lines, while if the Russians concentrate their forces, they can be targeted with missile systems at a distance. The Russians have similar capabilities. This makes it likely that large forces will not be concentrated."

"All this means that, until the rains arrive, nothing significant is to happen. Then when the rains come, it will render the terrain impassable, so we will have to wait for a harsh winter or for the next summer, to continue. In this way, this war could likely last for years. I think a political solution will come before a military one," Ühtegi concluded.

Maj. Gen. Riho Ühtegi was talking to "Ukraine stuudio."

[JWB]

 

[Markus Becker]

22 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

P.S. By the way, what is you local media saying about Rico Krieger case?  

Not even the name. Some German sentenced to death for not specified terrorism. 

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

Not even the name. Some German sentenced to death for not specified terrorism. 

Below is yandex-translate from Belorussian article ( Шакал в овечьей шкуре. Подробности резонансного дела немецкого наемника о терроризме (sb.by) ). Seems like German technician (former US Embassy guard?) was lured into cooperation by "free Belorussia" proxies of Ukr proxies of US&Co

"A jackal in sheep's clothing.

Details of the high-profile case of a German mercenary on terrorism
The verdict in the case of terrorism, mercenary activities, and agent activities has not been appealed and has entered into force

Who would have thought that after the lessons of the Great Patriotic War, I would someday see a German trying to blow up Belarus again. And that the details of this case, announced in court, will make the official representative of Germany in Minsk smile.

...An exceptional measure. When the verdict was announced in the Ministry of Justice, the accused turned pale and looked at the staff of the German consulate in disbelief. The smirk also disappeared from their faces, and the lawyer's face turned red.

Under the supervision of the SBU
There are six serious articles in this criminal case. Krieger Rico was charged under Part 3 of Article 289 — "Act of terrorism", Article 358 approx. 1 — "Agent activity", Article 133 — "Mercenary activity", part 3 of Article 361 approx. 1 — "Creation of an extremist formation or participation in it", part 4 of Article 295 — "Illegal actions in relation to firearms, ammunition and explosives" and part 4 of Article 309 — "Deliberate disrepair of a vehicle or communication routes".

The defendant is from Hildesheim, Lower Saxony (Germany). He studied to be a mechanic, knows how to handle drones. He worked for the German Red Cross, the rescue service, and as an orderly... In custody since October 13, 2023. He says he has no criminal record. He doesn't know Russian, so there's a translator in court. Consular access is provided.

In court, the parties were reminded of a criminal organization created several years ago in Ukraine and supervised by the SBU — the Kalinovsky Regiment (recognized in Belarus as an extremist formation). There she was trained, armed, planned and organized her activities. The main purpose of the group is "terrorist and other criminal activities, harming the national security of Belarus."
Various slops were poured into a cesspool called the Kalinovsky Regiment. Scumbags and just dim-witted characters from different countries aspired there. For foreign mercenaries, armed formations like the "Western battalion" were even created inside the nedopolk. Recruitment and propaganda — according to the classics, through ukrosites, telegram channels, chat rooms, which were also used for communication, coordination, verification of new participants — all under the leadership of the SBU.
She also planned and determined the places and methods of committing crimes, developed measures to minimize the risk of exposure and disruption, and prevent operations. They also prepared schemes for the delivery of weapons, explosives and members of the organizing group to Belarus.

By the way, the mercenaries were offered to get to the place at their own expense. At their own expense and other expenses, until, they say, they show that they are really capable of something. In fact, the logic is simple: why spend money on those who will be detained or eliminated on the spot. Moreover, neither the security guards, nor (even more so) the beggars from the "regiment" have money. So they catch the "consumable" for a fool.

"Tourist"
From what was announced in court: "No later than September 20, 2023, the leaders of the organized group involved German citizen Krieger Rico in its composition as the direct perpetrator of crimes in the Republic of Belarus, including a terrorist attack under their leadership."

In such situations, I remember the popular observation that a pig will find dirt. Krieger also found her. I read the news about the "regimental" extremists, approved, wanted to join, and eventually sent requests with my data to ukrosites, including the website of the Western group.
I sent photos of documents — who he is, where he lives, works, where he studied and what he can do. He wrote that he was ready to undergo verification, training under the supervision of the SBU and carry out its tasks against the Belarusian people.
They answered from the "regiment", brought him together with an ESB officer named Nikolai, in the telegram — "mic". I got in touch, we talked. On September 20, the German confirmed his readiness to work for the Ukrainian special services and commit terrorist attacks as part of a criminal group against the national security of Belarus. He was promised that the risk was minimal. For communication, they say, there are programs, messengers in which messages are deleted immediately after reading, etc.

Krieger entered Belarus as a tourist on October 2‑ 2023 (with phones and a drone). So it was said in the assignment that I had previously received from the SBU. It also stated: to conduct reconnaissance and photographing of objects in Osipovichi by coordinates. Instructions were attached.

And on October 4, Rico photographs the territory of the 97115 military equipment. The next day, a section of railway tracks, wagons, a loading and unloading platform next to the railway station "Ozerishche" and sends the data to Nikolai.
Then he receives the coordinates and photos of the cache with an improvised explosive device (IED), as well as instructions on how to install it on the railway.
Krieger found the cache in a forest plantation in the Pervomaisky district of Minsk, under the support of a power line. He took out a backpack with an IED (at least 3 kg of explosive octogen), transported it and installed it on the railway tracks of the "Ozerishcha". I informed the curator about the completion of the task and returned to the Minsk hotel. He was going to fly to Baku on October 6...

"It was scary… I even thought maybe it was a war."
The explosion occurred on the day of the IED installation on October 5, closer to midnight. To be more precise, at 23:22. Just before the arrival of the passenger train at the station.

A representative of the Borisov track distance of the Minsk branch of the Belarusian Railway told the court about the consequences: the sleepers were completely destroyed, the rails were displaced, bent outwards, the railway track and fastening were damaged, crushed stone ballast was scattered with the formation of a funnel, the fittings were exposed…

A glass shattered in one of the nearby houses due to the explosion. The victim Victoria recalls:

— It was dark, we were already asleep. I was awakened by a loud sound, similar to the sound of an explosion. It was scary. Mom and brother are awake too. Mom came out and saw the broken glass, it completely crumbled.
Earlier at the investigation, she showed: "The explosion scared me, for a while I was even afraid to go to bed," "my younger brother asked me to pick him up from school the next morning. He said that he was afraid of a possible explosion of the school and did not feel safe." Victoria confirmed these statements in court.
The victim Lilia saw the explosion itself:

— I was outside, smoking on the porch, talking on the phone. At that moment, there was a bang like a very strong lightning bolt. It was too loud and there was a bright orange flash. It felt like an electric shock hit my arms and temples, and my ears were blocked.

The children have also woken up, he says:

— I went into the house — the children are crying. The youngest daughter was very scared, she calmed her down for a long time... Everyone heard the explosion. The neighbors also came out to watch.

It's unpleasant, you don't feel safe in your own house, Lilia said: "For a while it was scary, the harsh sounds were frightening. I was afraid of another explosion. I'm afraid for the children."
— I was asleep, I woke up from the explosion, which was very creepy... It was scary, I thought something terrible had happened... I even thought maybe it was the war... - an elderly woman said haltingly, almost crying. At the time of the explosion, she was in the bathhouse behind an iron door, which was skewed and it no longer closed. Imagine how strong the blast wave was if it deformed even a metal door!
The man was so scared that he hardly left the house the next day.

...In Belarus, the courts, as well as the investigation, understand the situation thoroughly. Therefore, it would seem that the same things can be announced more than once, not twice, or even three times. So it is in the Krieger trial. Which for some reason made the German consul smile (this was when he was not dozing). Unfortunately, not everyone has learned the lessons of history… I noticed, by the way, that this consul, along with his assistant, was actively making notes in a notebook when the names and surnames of witnesses and victims were called. It's just an observation.

According to one of the witnesses, on October 6, military equipment was supposed to be loaded on the path where the IED was laid.
Due to the explosion, the loading was delayed, which means that this could affect the mobility of the troops. The idea could also be designed to complicate or disrupt planned activities of the Armed Forces (for example, combat training of troops), demoralization, intimidation of military personnel. All this is a direct link to defense capability and national security.

The terrorist  by... "negligence"

He was detained on October 6, the day when he was going to flee the country.
 Yes, of the articles presented in court, he had the courage to plead guilty to only one — espionage activity. And then, he said, "partially", because "by negligence." I wonder how it is? Closer to the debate, after thinking about it, he said: "As for the agent activity, I recognize within the framework of the evidence that was given in the trial," "that is, agent activity in full, I do not recognize everything else."

All these days, the court examined the evidence confirming Rico's guilt. This includes the testimony of dozens of witnesses, victims, residents of the streets closest to the explosion site, people who were at the railway station at the time and after the explosion. These are interviews with the employees of the v / h, the taxi driver who drove Krieger, the results of the ORDO, the testimony of the accused, who gave at the preliminary investigation, when checking the testimony on the spot. These are the results of examinations (fingerprint, explosive, genetic, etc.), recordings from CCTV cameras, information from the accused's mobile phones, correspondence, search results, and so on.

The German citizen refused to testify in court. The ones that I gave earlier were announced, telling everything in detail. And from which it also follows that Krieger worked for the SBU, under its supervision, and that he voluntarily committed crimes. Not for ideological reasons, but simply for the sake of money. It was offered to fight in Ukraine for 2 thousand euros per month.

What did Rico know about the events in Ukraine? He answered the investigator like this: "Very little. Almost nothing. Except that a military special operation is taking place there." And what does he know about the Kalinovsky regiment? The answer is: "Only what Wikipedia gives. That this is a separatist group from Belarus," "I hoped that they would be able to help me realize my desires. And, as far as I know, they are fighting on the side of Ukraine." He wanted, he said, to participate as a mercenary in the armed conflict in Ukraine and even undergo special training.

Later he added: "A recruiter called me via video link, a recruiter," "they told me that with my abilities, Ukraine would really need me." They also said that his documents would be handed over to the SBU and checked there. He told in detail how he received tasks from the Ukrainian special service and carried them out, took out and installed an explosive device, how he cleaned up his electronic traces, bought military-like clothes so as not to stand out too much near the military… Here's more from Krieger's testimony: "The security guard said that I would be invited to Kiev because they wanted to reward me and meet with me personally."
The defendant's argument that the platform and railway tracks were abandoned is refuted by his own testimony. He says he saw a passing passenger train, which he filmed on video.
Then he claimed that over time an epiphany came, but it was allegedly too late to abandon what was planned: he was afraid of the SBU, "you shouldn't expect anything good from them," "they are bad," but "he did it against his will." Convincing, yes. By the way, the witness who drove Rico to the site of the explosion described him as an absolutely calm person.

The defendant was found guilty of all charges. According to the totality of crimes, punishment has been finally imposed — an exceptional measure.

It was said: don't meddle!
In the debate, the Prosecutor reminded the audience of the importance of the measures taken by the international community in the fight against extremism and terrorism. And this is understandable. She also reminded that friendly relations between the two countries are not based on pressure, genocide and terror. She also spoke about the condemnation of terrorist methods, which is explicitly stated in international legal acts: "Crimes of an extremist, terrorist nature cannot be justified under any circumstances. And individuals and legal entities guilty of committing such acts or involved in their commission must be brought to justice."

So is the defendant in this criminal case. Political pressure, terror — these are the methods by which, through a foreign mercenary, they tried to influence our sovereign state, intimidate people, the civilian population, and force the authorities and the Belarusian military to act according to the "line of the West." For me personally, the verdict is clear and logical. With terrorists, that's the only way. It has been said many times — don't mess with us.

... It is curious that the mournful expressions of the representatives of the German consulate and the lawyer were replaced by smiles, strange fun, friendly pats of each other as soon as these characters left the courthouse after the verdict was announced. And only the translator, who lived in Germany for 8 years and served there under some military structure, sympathized and was indignant. No, not to the consular and lawyer, he poured out his soul to our policeman at the checkpoint of the court. However, as it seemed to me, I was more upset that the Belarusian media would tell about the crimes. They will tell you, do not doubt, we have freedom of speech, the right of citizens to receive information.

Oh, and one more thing. Huge words of gratitude to Oleg Lapeko, the chairman of the case, and Tatyana Grakun, the state prosecutor. Professionals with a capital letter and true patriots of their country. Unlike, by the way, the online extremist pads, who moaned about the verdict of the German and not a word condemning the terrorist attacks in Belarus, which they were born and grew up in.

The defendant did not appeal the verdict, it came into force.

FOR REFERENCE

The octogen is manufactured at defense industry enterprises, used for military engineering purposes for the production of special explosive work, as well as as an explosive charge when equipping various types of army ammunition, anti-tank grenades, mortar mines, barrel and rocket artillery shells, aerial bombs, etc. With an octogen charge with a capacity of at least 3 kg if located at a distance of up to Damage of varying severity could have been caused 50 meters away. Damage could be caused by trains passing nearby, including people inside.

The expert in court explained: Octogen is the most powerful explosive that fully reacts, chemically decomposes into gaseous components during explosion. Therefore, there may be no traces of it on the seized items and flushes, and special knowledge is required to remove samples. This is how the criminals tried to destroy their tracks.

sentence

Krieger Rico was found guilty of committing an explosion in order to influence decision—making by authorities, intimidate the population, destabilize public order - an act of terrorism (Part 3 of Article 289 of the Criminal Code) committed by a person who had previously committed a crime; cooperation of a foreign citizen with the special service of the security agencies of a foreign state, involving the commission of actions deliberately aimed at causing harm to the national security of Belarus, agent activity (Article 358 of the note 1); mercenary activities

(Article 133); the creation of an extremist formation or participation in it (part 3 of Article 361, approx. 1); illegal storage and carrying of explosives and explosive devices committed by an organized group (part 4 of Article 295); intentional damage to communication routes, which could lead to human death, a crash, an accident and other serious consequences (part 4 of Article 309).
The explosion at the railway station occurred on the day of the installation of IEDs on October 5 closer to midnight. Just before the arrival of the passenger train at the station.
HE WAS A SECURITY GUARD AT THE AMERICAN EMBASSY IN GERMANY

The verdict in this case was announced a month ago. I admit that I held back the publication specifically to look at the reaction of the BCHB agents and other pro-Western gaskets. It is expected that the loudest of all, even the German media, were the network resources recognized as extremist in Belarus. And none (one/one) of these cliches condemned just the wildest crimes of a mercenary. I'm not talking about a kilometer of inaccuracies and lies. The only thing that is difficult to disagree with: he was a security guard at the American embassy in Berlin. "He guarded," Tutki simply writes, "residential complexes for Marines, the ambassador's residence and the visa department." There, they say, "I gained valuable experience in the field of armed security operations." As you understand, no one is hired to work in such places without recommendations, this fact of the defendant's biography only confirms his preparedness and the correctness of the decision made by the court.

 

[bojan]

How the fuck is that military or technical?

[txtree99]

17 minutes ago, bojan said:

How the fuck is that military or technical?

+1

[Yama]

7 hours ago, JWB said:

 

Russian sources have confirmed the loss. Seems like pilot managed to eject?

[bojan]

FB says pilot was unharmed and successfully evacuated.

[Perun]

18 SAS members killed and 25 wounded in Odesa

 

[Perun]

Ukrainian Vampire SAM against drones

 

[alejandro_]

The Guardian has interviewed Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of AFU. Below some excerpts, data on invading force is way lower than previous figures. Data for current equipment seems way too high.

Syrskyi is Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief. His unenviable task is to defeat a bigger Russian army. Two and half years into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale onslaught, he acknowledges the Russians are much better resourced. They have more of everything: tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, soldiers. Their original 100,000-strong invasion force has grown to 520,000, he said, with a goal by the end of 2024 of 690,000 men. The figures for Ukraine have not been made public.

“When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favour,” he said. Since 2022 the number of Russian tanks has “doubled” – from 1,700 to 3,500. Artillery systems have tripled, and armoured personnel carriers gone up from 4,500 to 8,900. “The enemy has a significant advantage in force and resources,” Syrskyi said. “Therefore, for us, the issue of supply, the issue of quality, is really at the forefront.”

F-16s would strengthen Ukraine’s air defences. They would allow Kyiv to work more effectively against Russian cruise missiles and to hit ground targets accurately. However, there were limits to what F-16s might achieve, he stressed. They had to remain “40km or more” from the frontline because of the risk Moscow would shoot them down.

Russia had “superior aviation” and “very strong” air defences. Because of this Ukraine was increasingly turning to unmanned aerial systems, Syrskyi said. It used drones “very effectively” and was trying out “robotic ground systems” – land robots that could deliver ammunition or rescue a wounded soldier. There was a new unmanned systems command, the first of its kind. “We fight not by quantity but quality,” he said, adding that drones played “as big a role as artillery”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/24/i-know-we-will-win-and-how-ukraines-top-general-on-turning-the-tables-against-russia?fbclid=IwY2xjawENi-FleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHdKjYP3ssaf5cNvtix-LPBMvcldT7aB6o1HeLKJmP7hiEnIU0C-SdkYqEQ_aem_7DzufLEaKUE7nUJ8oZ3fYQ

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 hours ago, Perun said:

18 SAS members killed and 25 wounded in Odesa

 

Considering there are only 16 men in an SAS Troop (Which is the largest number they are likely to send considering how many places around the world we need them), then I can only assume they must have killed and wounded them several times over.

Bodies or it didnt happen.

 

[ink]

4 hours ago, Perun said:

18 SAS members killed and 25 wounded in Odesa

 

Yeah, I'm with Stuart on this one I'm afraid. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. 

[Roman Alymov]

30 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

The Guardian has interviewed Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of AFU. Below some excerpts, data on invading force is way lower than previous figures. Data for current equipment seems way too high.

Syrskyi is Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief. His unenviable task is to defeat a bigger Russian army. Two and half years into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale onslaught, he acknowledges the Russians are much better resourced. They have more of everything: tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, soldiers. Their original 100,000-strong invasion force has grown to 520,000, he said, with a goal by the end of 2024 of 690,000 men. The figures for Ukraine have not been made public.

So now pro-Ukrainians (and their Western masters) acknowlege original Ris Army force was about 100k (combined with about 20-30K of DNR and LNR units it will be somewhere close to original estimation of 120-130K, 150K in other estimations). Probably it worth reminding that UkrArmy alone in 2021 was 260K (double the Russian forces number), including 170K land forces + trained reserve of about 300K of "ATO veterans" and all sorts of Azov and other paramilitaries. Now they have about 1300K armed men in their "defence forces". Effectively, it means pro-Russians were always outnumbered at least 2:1, and before "partial mobilization" reaching 3:1 to 5:1 . I wonder how Western MSM still amnage to print something like "His unenviable task is to defeat a bigger Russian army."

   Note it was well known in Rus TG for a long time