War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[bojan]

IIRC ATM all 155/52 barrel blanks in Europe are made in Slovakia. Fine machining ability from those blanks exists in Germany, France, Slovakia, Serbia and Poland. Capacity for blanks is unknown to me and would be most probably main chokepoint.

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, Soldier36 said:

According to Forbes, Russian troops fire approximately 10,000 rounds per day, while Ukrainian forces fire about 2,000. 

.....

But the downside of such high rates of fire has been the wear and tear on barrels. In some highly contested areas, the barrels of howitzers need replacing after only a few months.

The 10,000 vs. 2,000 rounds per day was in an article from earlier in 2024 that I posted recently on request from I believe txtree99.  That piece also indicated that the Russians have about 4,000 artillery pieces in combat and that a barrel is worn out beyond use after about 1,500 rounds fired.  If these figures are correct, then the 4,000 guns the Russians currently have will be worn out by firing 10,000 rounds a day in 600 days.

So I think the real take-away from the 10,000 rounds a day figure is that the Russian army is perfectly aware of the ammunition and barrel life issues, and is firing its artillery at a daily rate that is perpetually sustainable.  If so, the exact opposite of what the article is trying to convey, 

Unless something changes, before the end of this year Russian forces may have to adjust their posture to one that is much more defensive

No, the Russians will not have to do this at all.  They simply need to keep to 10,000 rounds a day and destroy so much Ukrainian artillery and ammunition via counterbattery, that the Ukrainians remain at or below 3,000 rounds a day.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, bojan said:

IIRC ATM all 155/52 barrel blanks in Europe are made in Slovakia. Fine machining ability from those blanks exists in Germany, France, Slovakia, Serbia and Poland. Capacity for blanks is unknown to me and would be most probably main chokepoint.

I doubt Russia has a shortage of barrels given its inventory pre war. this would be more true if accuracy is not a major concern for specific types of fire/units.

Edited July 18 by Josh

[RETAC21]

8 hours ago, bojan said:

IIRC ATM all 155/52 barrel blanks in Europe are made in Slovakia. Fine machining ability from those blanks exists in Germany, France, Slovakia, Serbia and Poland. Capacity for blanks is unknown to me and would be most probably main chokepoint.

Add Spain, as the Trubia factory is being reactivated: https://www.infodefensa.com/texto-diario/mostrar/4864349/santa-barbara-sistemas-reactiva-linea-produccion-canones-artilleria-carros-trubia

[Roman Alymov]

From Ukr Gov leaks TG channel https://t.me/rezident_ua/23586

"MI-6 handed over to the Office of the President and the General Staff new intelligence on the tactics of Russian troops: before air sorties, now the area of glide bombs use is clearly defined and UAVs are circling there, if there is air defense, then Iskanders strike at them. In this way, the enemy opposes the Ukrainian mobile air defenses, having improved the tactics of airstrikes on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." 

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, Josh said:

I doubt Russia has a shortage of barrels given its inventory pre war. this would be more true if accuracy is not a major concern for specific types of fire/units.

Actually pro-Russians were warning about problems with barrels production for years (at least since 2022  - see for example this post by Strelkov dated August 2022 https://t.me/strelkovii/3052

    Now new topic is possibility of introduction of 155mm artillery systems to Rus Army as it will potentially give access to global pool of 155mm ammo and barrels - for example https://t.me/milinfolive/126252?single

"We have already considered various arguments in favor of adopting 155-mm long-range systems of the corresponding JBMoU into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. (https://t.me/milinfolive/120131) This is the achieved TTX of artillery systems (https://t.me/milinfolive/120131 ) and ammunition (https://t.me/milinfolive/125835 ) 155 mm created in accordance with the JBMoU standard, the fame of standards and artillery systems (https://t.me/milinfolive/125904 ) and ammunition (https://t.me/milinfolive/126059 ) the Russian military-industrial complex, as well as the availability of various types of ammunition in foreign markets. (https://t.me/milinfolive/126177)

Another argument for the adoption of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, in addition to 152-mm and 155-mm systems, is the presence among friendly countries of manufacturers and guided artillery shells (UAS) in the 155-mm caliber! After all, Iran (and not only China) also produces its own clone of Krasnopol - Basir! And it produces it precisely in the 155 mm standard.

The projectile corresponds to the old Krasnopoly and has a firing range of up to 17 km, but this is the range when firing from systems with a barrel length of 39 klb. From a long - barreled (https://t.me/milinfolive/125904 ) (52 klb) systems like MSTA-S 2C19M1-155 will have a range of more than 20 km.

At the same time, since the munition itself is the Iranian Krasnopol, it provides initially high compatibility with Russian standards of target designation systems and so on.

The Russian industry is already working on the production of guided artillery munitions at the limit. And when using 155-mm systems in Russian artillery, it becomes possible to increase the artillery "high-precision salvo" with 155-mm guided shells!

But the question often sounds: "and where to get the barrels if anything?". The question is logical! Our industry can produce corresponding 155-mm barrels. But tellingly, there are options to get barrels without even distracting domestic capacities currently occupied by barrels for 152-mm systems. 

To be continued..."

 

[bojan]

10 hours ago, Josh said:

I doubt Russia has a shortage of barrels given its inventory pre war. this would be more true if accuracy is not a major concern for specific types of fire/units.

As was noted in article, and as I have noted previously, back in 2022. they have decent reserve of towed and SP artillery that they can scavenge barrels from. Only exception are 2S19s, of which they had only 100 in reserves.

But even that reserve has it's limits and while I don't know what is their production they will run into such issues at some point, be it 2025 or 2027 or whatever.

  

3 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Add Spain, as the Trubia factory is being reactivated: https://www.infodefensa.com/texto-diario/mostrar/4864349/santa-barbara-sistemas-reactiva-linea-produccion-canones-artilleria-carros-trubia

Nice, but as I have said my estimate is that blanks production is a chokepoint. For finalizing from blanks rule of thumb is that decent sized production line factory can make one barrel / 3-4 days (that is maximum capacity, limited not by the speed of the machines but by the need of heat and cool cycles of the barrels, so it can not be sped up). That is also probably source for article's estimate of ~100 barrels per year per factory. Unless factories have multiple barrel production facilities, but I am not sure about that, since demands for artillery before 24.2.2022. was low and no factory probably found it economical to keep multiple expensive lines running in parallel for a relatively limited production.

Unfortunately IDK what is a blank production capability in either Russia or Europe. IIRC Germany gave up blanks production in 2010s, Slovenians in the '90s, French in the 2000s, Fins in the '90 or 2000s.  IDK who else had it (Sweden, Italy, Spain, Romania for sure), but a lot of those "old" production was limited in the length of the blanks they could produce, mostly to 39 caliber pieces.

Edited July 18 by bojan

[sunday]

I think Trubia has facilities for autofretting barrels, not for manufacturing barrel blanks. After all, the last guns made there were done using tubes from Rheinmetall.

[alejandro_]

Note that Krynky operation was one of the arguments that led to the dismissal of lieutenant general Yurii Sodol, Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from February to June 2024
 

Ukraine Loses Hard-Won Position Near Dnipro River in the South

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-war-dnipro-river.html

Soldiers and military analysts said an operation to establish a foothold on the river’s Russian-controlled eastern bank was bloody and hard to justify.

Ukrainian troops have lost a hard-won position on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, near the southern city of Kherson, after months of bloody fighting to hold on to a piece of land in what some Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts have described as a futile operation.

The Ukrainian military said on Wednesday night that fighting continued on the eastern bank but that most of the main positions in the village of Krynky, where its troops had gained a foothold, “were destroyed by intense, combined and prolonged enemy fire.” The statement came after several Ukrainian news media outlets reported that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from the village, which now lies in ruins.

The operation to establish a bridgehead on the Russian-controlled eastern bank of the Dnipro had been controversial from the start. Launched last fall, it was seen as an attempt to open a new front in the south that would disrupt Moscow’s logistics and tie down its troops in the area. But military analysts warned that the operation, which consisted of dangerous river crossings, was vulnerable in its logistics and unlikely to lead to rapid breakthroughs.

Ukrainian gains were limited to small pieces of land near the river, of which Krynky was the most notable.

As fighting to secure the position dragged on for months, Ukrainian soldiers involved in the operation complained that it was brutal and senseless. Soldiers crossing the river on boats were easy targets for Russian drones and mortars. Once they landed on the eastern bank, they had nowhere to hide because the bombed-out terrain had been reduced to a mass of mud and flattened houses.

“From a military point of view, I find it difficult to find some grounds for this operation,” said Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group. “Whatever the initial goals of the operation were, they have most likely not been met.”

The Dnipro River divides the two armies in the south. Ukraine has controlled the western bank since the fall of 2022, when a successful counteroffensive drove the Russians out of the city of Kherson and pushed them across the river.
Image

Ukrainian assaults on the eastern bank began about a year later. They were initially shrouded in secrecy, with small groups of soldiers harassing Russian forces in night raids, arriving from small boats at various points along the meandering river.

Officials remained tight-lipped about the fierce fighting until last November, when they announced that their troops had seized a sliver of land on the Russian-controlled bank, including Krynky. One of the goals of the operation appeared to draw Russian troops to the area and prevent them from being dispatched to other parts of the front where Moscow was on the offensive, such as in the east.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, said that Russia had concentrated tens of thousands of troops in the area to repel Ukrainian attacks. “Let’s imagine that this resource of 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers appeared in the Belgorod region, supplementing the northern troop groups,” he said, referring to Russia’s recent offensive in northeastern Ukraine. “Would the Russians then have been able to capture Vovchansk and Lyptsi completely? Yes.”

Vovchansk and Lyptsi are two towns in the north where fierce fighting has raged but which Russia has been unable to capture.

But holding on to Krynky also cost Ukraine many lives. Ukrainian soldiers said they were stuck for days in muddy terrain with little to no cover from Russian artillery, drones and airstrikes.

An article published on Wednesday by Slidstvo Info (*), an investigative Ukrainian news outlet, reported that at least 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed on the eastern bank or are missing. That figure could not be independently confirmed.

By winter, with casualties mounting and Ukraine failing to expand its presence on the eastern bank, Mr. Kastehelmi, of the Black Bird Group, said the operation had become “more politically motivated,” with the goal of showing that Ukraine could still be on the offensive, as doubts increased among Western allies that Kyiv could win the war.

Mr. Kastehelmi said Ukraine did not have the resources to sustain such an attritional fight for months. “It’s a fair question to ask if the operation should have been ended faster and if Ukrainian brigades could have been better used in other areas,” he said.

(*) https://www.slidstvo.info/warnews/ya-bachyv-peklo-i-nazva-yomu-krynky-biytsi-iaki-utrymuvaly-selo-na-livomu-berezi-i-znykly-tam-bezvisty/

[RETAC21]

2 hours ago, sunday said:

I think Trubia has facilities for autofretting barrels, not for manufacturing barrel blanks. After all, the last guns made there were done using tubes from Rheinmetall.

I think this capability went away locally with the sale to Mittal of the local industries.

[Roman Alymov]

16 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

Ukraine Loses Hard-Won Position Near Dnipro River in the South

There is at least two problems with this article.

1. It was not "hard-won" position as initially there was next to no Russian troops there and, as result, nothing like D-Day landing  - pro-Ukrainians have just arrived on speedboats and landed safely on some of numerous small boat piers in this area (Krynki was, i think,chosen because it is very convenient for this style of landing as the boats could pass through old river bed directly to the last houses of the village). Yes holding it was, probably, costly - but Russian attempts to storm Krynki was also costly (see my old posts about the reasons of it).

2. The article is failing to mention technological reasons why supplying Krynki was becoming increasingly difficult: when "battle for Krynki" started, FPV drones were relatively rare and short-ranged, artillery (with indirect fire) was not effective agaisnt speedboats at speed, and JDAMsky were only developing. Now, year later, FPVs are deadly and could operate at significant distance. so inflatable speedboats are easy targets.....

[KV7]

5 hours ago, bojan said:

Unfortunately IDK what is a blank production capability in either Russia or Europe. IIRC Germany gave up blanks production in 2010s, Slovenians in the '90s, French in the 2000s, Fins in the '90 or 2000s.  IDK who else had it (Sweden, Italy, Spain, Romania for sure), but a lot of tho

I think the French Aubert & Duval can do it., they claim ability to produce barrel blanks including 155mm calibre and up to 10 metres in length.

https://www.aubertduval.com/markets/forgings-bars-plates-navy-missiles-firearms-armored-vehicles-artillery/artillery-forgings-calibre-mortar-armour-vehicle/

Edited July 18 by KV7

[Perun]

 

Ukrainian special forces fighting in Dnieper. But to me it looks like more like some exercise

[Perun]

Nearly 42,000 people are currently missing in Ukraine, an Interior Ministry official said on Wednesday, a figure that includes soldiers and civilians.

https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/world/2024/7/17/ukrajina-gotovo-42-000-nestalih-vojnika-i-civila

I didnt find it in english but translator works fine

[Soldier36]

In Russia, the Gonets satellite system and the Geoscan company for the first time implemented technology for controlling UAVs via satellite. For testing, the Geoscan 201 UAV from the Geoscan company was used; the experiment was carried out on Sakhalin. It is worth noting that the implementation of this system will allow the creation of autonomous maritime drones. The Geoscan-201 drone was equipped with a Russian on-board modem, Gonets, and all control of the drone was carried out through Russian satellites. For control, special mini antennas have been developed that are built into the UAV. During the tests, the possibility of establishing communication, transmitting telemetry data from the Geoscan 201 UAV to the Gonets-M spacecraft and sending commands from the ground control station to the UAV via satellite was assessed. A total of six flights were carried out. Experiments showed the effectiveness of the created communication system. The location data and telemetry data of the UAV were successfully transmitted to the data center, and a command was sent via satellite to force a return to the launch site. The electric UAV "Geoscan-201" has a take-off weight of 8.5 kg and is capable of speeds of up to 80 km/h at altitudes of up to 4000 meters. The UAV is capable of carrying a payload of 1.5 kg, a range of up to 210 km and can stay in the air for up to 3 hours.

 

 

[Perun]

France is training mew Ukrainian brigade. Judging by the number of people and equipmentnit seams that this is wery light brigade. I am afraid that this is some french experiment and medling in Ukrainian military afairs which wont end well for Ukrainian army.

 

"The Brigade will be mechanized and will consist of 2100 personnel. They will train for numerous months in France and return to Ukraine in late 2024 to deploy. The brigade will be mechanized and they will receive the following French equipment.

- 24 AMX-10RC light tanks
- 128 VAB APCs
- 18 CAESAR 155mm howitzers
- TRM and Renault Logistics trucks
- Milan ATGMs
- AT4 anti-armor rockets
- Counter battery radars"

https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/grand-est/aube/troyes/info-france-3-armee-2100-militaires-ukrainiens-attendus-dans-les-camps-d-entrainement-en-champagne-3006293.html

[alejandro_]

3 hours ago, Perun said:

"The Brigade will be mechanized and will consist of 2100 personnel. They will train for numerous months in France and return to Ukraine in late 2024 to deploy. The brigade will be mechanized and they will receive the following French equipment.

Thanks, I think software is struggling with translation. The contingent will train for 2 months and go back to Ukraine in late 2024.

2,100 is too low for an entire brigade, I assume only certain roles are being taught in France?

[Perun]

24 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

Thanks, I think software is struggling with translation. The contingent will train for 2 months and go back to Ukraine in late 2024.

2,100 is too low for an entire brigade, I assume only certain roles are being taught in France?

Maybe it is light brigade based on French concept. French do have really light army units

Edited July 19 by Perun

[Yama]

Lot of the Ukrainian 'brigades' are pretty small. But perhaps they intent to reinforce it with Ukrainian-trained recruits?

18 Caesars is quite neat for that sized formation, but otherwise...eh.

[Perun]

Vučić snd Zelenski talked. Does anyone know how much of equipment Serbia sold to Ukraine

 

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, Perun said:

Maybe it is light brigade based on French concept. French do have really light army units

They need light brigades to support presence on massive territory of former French colonial Empire - while they are clearly unfit for Eastern front. So quite logical assumption to make is that this brigade will be sent to Africa to oppose Wagner-supported movements (the same way as UkrArmy SOF is now used there), not to Eastern front. Free white cannon fodder is rare now, why not use it where it is more important to France itself?  Personnel would be happy to go to much safer warzone without enemy artillery, drones and aviation, not to mention ballistic and cruise missiles 

[Soldier36]

Russian troops received T-62M tanks of 2024. A batch of modernized T-62M tanks from 2024 was spotted on one of the trains in Russia. The modernization of tanks is supposedly carried out by the 103rd Armored Repair Plant, more details about it and the tanks can be found in the link to the video in the comments to the video. The tanks are equipped with additional dynamic protection and “Barbecue” type canopies to protect against the dropping of ammunition from drones. It is worth noting that this protection is not enough now. Detailed characteristics of the tank on the screen. The updated T-62M tanks received an improved control and surveillance system, a new engine and other improvements. The target firing range of the T-62M tank is up to 4000 meters, the maximum firing range is up to 11000 meters.

 

 

[Soldier36]

The Ukrainian army published footage of attempts to intercept Russian Mi-8 and Mi-35 helicopters with FPV drones; the drone models were not disclosed. According to experts, it is difficult for FPV drones to shoot down a helicopter due to the difference in speeds and powerful air flows from the rotors. In addition, FPV drones have a weak automatic stabilization system; it is not designed for powerful wind currents and cannot stabilize the drone’s flight. It is worth noting that there is a possibility of destroying a helicopter if the drone flies towards the helicopter on a collision course and dives down, or uses remote detonation of ammunition.

 

 

[crazyinsane105]

21 hours ago, Perun said:

France is training mew Ukrainian brigade. Judging by the number of people and equipmentnit seams that this is wery light brigade. I am afraid that this is some french experiment and medling in Ukrainian military afairs which wont end well for Ukrainian army.

 

"The Brigade will be mechanized and will consist of 2100 personnel. They will train for numerous months in France and return to Ukraine in late 2024 to deploy. The brigade will be mechanized and they will receive the following French equipment.

- 24 AMX-10RC light tanks
- 128 VAB APCs
- 18 CAESAR 155mm howitzers
- TRM and Renault Logistics trucks
- Milan ATGMs
- AT4 anti-armor rockets
- Counter battery radars"

https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/grand-est/aube/troyes/info-france-3-armee-2100-militaires-ukrainiens-attendus-dans-les-camps-d-entrainement-en-champagne-3006293.html

AMX vehicles again? Those things faired so poorly, the Ukrainians were definitely not a fan of them. 
 

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/ukraine-commander-slams-french-tanks-as-thin-armored-impract

 

Why can’t they be given LeClercs instead?

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

AMX vehicles again? Those things faired so poorly, the Ukrainians were definitely not a fan of them. 
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/ukraine-commander-slams-french-tanks-as-thin-armored-impract

Why can’t they be given LeClercs instead?

See above, quite likely this brigades are not for Ukraine but for French colonies