War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[Roman Alymov]

Burned out wreck of Bogdana SPG 

https://t.me/anna_news/68572

[Roman Alymov]

Marder IFV wrech recovered by pro-Russians https://t.me/milinfolive/126092

[Roman Alymov]

On 7/12/2024 at 9:04 PM, Roman Alymov said:

M1 Abrams burned out wreck https://t.me/Ugolok_Sitha/21057

 

[alejandro_]

Article on the UMPK kit used on FAB-3000 bomb. Accuracy is given as 10 meters

https://iz.ru/1727411/2024-07-15/letchik-su-34-rasskazal-ob-uiazvimosti-vsu-pered-bombami-s-umpk

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

Article on the UMPK kit used on FAB-3000 bomb. Accuracy is given as 10 meters

https://iz.ru/1727411/2024-07-15/letchik-su-34-rasskazal-ob-uiazvimosti-vsu-pered-bombami-s-umpk

That article is de-facto text version of this TV news report https://t.me/anna_news/68573

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

 

[Soldier36]

Long-range M-46 guns were noticed in the Russian army. Soviet 130-mm M-46 cannons, one of the eyewitnesses noted, on one of the railway trains in Russia, earlier M-46 cannons were noticed on the road near Novocherkassk. It is unknown whether the Russian army began to use these guns, but it was previously reported that the guns are used in Ukraine. Presumably, shells for them can be supplied to Russia from Iran and North Korea. M-46 guns entered service with the USSR in 1951; for its time it was one of the best artillery pieces. Despite their age, these guns under different indices and in a modernized video are now in service and storage in 40 countries; Ukraine uses them. The M-46 guns have a 55-caliber barrel and are capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 27 kilometers with a conventional projectile and active-missile projectiles at a range of up to 37 kilometers. When using Chinese and Iranian active missiles, the firing range reaches 44 kilometers. The gun's rate of fire is up to 8 rounds per minute, with separate cartridge loading. The gun crew consists of 9 people, the transfer time from traveling to firing position is 8 minutes. The weight of the gun in the stowed position is 8450 kg. According to some estimates, there are about 600-700 M-46 guns in the warehouses of the Russian army.

 

 

[alejandro_]

33 minutes ago, Soldier36 said:

Despite their age, these guns under different indices and in a modernized video are now in service and storage in 40 countries; Ukraine uses them. The M-46 guns have a 55-caliber barrel and are capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 27 kilometers with a conventional projectile and active-missile projectiles at a range of up to 37 kilometers.

A few years ago I interviewed an NCO from the serbian Army who had used one. His impressions:

M-46 is excellent field gun performance wise, main issue with it is that it's not very user friendly, and easy to work with, but once it is mastered, with good crew, it does miracles.

https://alejandro-8en.blogspot.com/2021/03/interview-with-nco-of-army-of-serbia.html

[mandeb48]

Ukr losses :

https://t.me/lost_armour/3107

[alejandro_]

1 hour ago, mandeb48 said:

Ukr losses :

https://t.me/lost_armour/3107

Interesting, thanks.

Michael Kofman's impressions after a visit to Ukraine. I don't agree with his comment on Kharkov and the use of S-300, as well as the increasing effectiveness of UMPK bombs - pro-Russian sources have stated that Ukrainians are getting better at interfering them-. Kharkov offensive did not have the objective of getting a major breakthrough. 
 

https://x.com/KofmanMichael/status/1811079176822435851

Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
Thoughts following a recent field study in Ukraine. Ukraine faces difficult months of fighting ahead, but the situation at the front is better than it was this spring. More worrisome is the state of Ukraine’s air defense, and the damage from Russian strikes to the power grid. 1/
5:44 PM · Jul 10, 2024
·
743.1K
 Views

Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
Ukraine’s manpower, fortifications, and ammunition situation is steadily improving. Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk, and likely to make further gains, but they have not been able to exploit the Kharkiv offensive into a major breakthrough. 2/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
The Kharkiv front has stabilized, with the overall correlation of forces not favorable to Moscow there. Russian operations are focused on the following directions: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Ocheretyne-Pokrovsk, and to a lesser extent Kupyansk. 3/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
Despite the improved outlook, rectifying manpower deficits will take time. Russian forces are likely to keep advancing over the coming months, especially in Donetsk. The next 2 months will be especially difficult. 4/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
A change in US policy on weapons employment enabled Ukraine to push Russian S-300s, used to bombard the city, away from Kharkiv. This bought the city breathing space, and forced Russia to make adjustments, although the offensive had already culminated by that point. 5/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
Addressing manpower gaps remains a priority for Ukraine, but the leading problem is increasingly air defense, both short range systems to cover the front line, and long-range air defense to defend cities, critical infrastructure, and rear areas. 6/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
Ukraine is very low on ammunition for legacy Soviet systems, whereas Russian drone and missile production rates have increased significantly. A deficit of air defense has led to pervasive Russian UAS reconnaissance behind the front line and increased success rates in strikes. 7/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
This has a pernicious effect, suppressing artillery, enabling Russian dynamic targeting in the rear, and makes forward deploy long-range air defense a high risk proposition. AFU units are pursuing novel counters, such as interceptor FPV drones, but need scalable solutions. 8/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
Troops arm themselves with spectrum analyzers to detect signals from Zala, Orlan, and Supercam UAS types. Persistent Russian ISR behind the front lines is a growing challenge, especially since there will be less cover to conceal positions come winter. 9/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
Russian glide bomb (UMPK/UMPB) strikes have become more accurate, and from greater ranges. They destroy entire positions, and are more psychologically impactful than artillery. Glide bombs level structures in cities that would take days of artillery fire to destroy. 10/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
The promise of additional Patriot batteries, NASAMS, and Hawks, plus rerouting of missile exports to Ukraine can make a big difference this year. That said, pushing Patriot batteries forward to tackle Russian air strikes will be risky if they cannot themselves be protected. 11/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
Western munitions have reduced the fires disparity. At Kharkiv there is relative parity of 1:1, elsewhere 5:1 and declining. Though there are still issues with having the right charges, forcing Ukrainian artillery to fire closer to the front line. 12/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
After the passage of new mobilization laws, Ukraine’s first month of increased mobilization shows significantly higher intake of men. There is a lag effect, mobilized personnel need to receive training, before they are available to refill formations. 13/
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
·
Jul 10
The number of volunteers (as a share of those mobilized) has also increased. Ukraine's MoD is working to revamp the image of service, opening recruitment centers, allowing brigades to advertise, and offering volunteers options to choose their unit. 14/

Edited July 15 by alejandro_

[txtree99]

 

[KV7]

3 hours ago, alejandro_ said:

Kharkov offensive did not have the objective of getting a major breakthrough.

I agree and stated this earlier. The political inability of Ukraine to accept new territorial losses means that they are vulnerable to operations such as the latest incursion, as they seem to quite reliably try to counterattack, even in unfavorable conditions. So Russia can do bite and hold operations and then dig in and watch Ukraine expend resources trying to recover the newly taken territory.

In the Kharkov offensive this is exactly what has occurred, for example they have been willing to pour men into the tough fighting around Vovchanks, and even into a sort of pocket on the wrong side of the river. It's a little version of the later period of the Bakhmut defence, i.e. defending a sort of pocket even after the supply lines are compromised and getting in and out is costly.

The case of Hlyboka is even more stark, as they have attempted offensive operations across a thin salient, which actually did better than expected but I think they look substantial losses and then ended up taking some farms that were then obliterated.

[Markus Becker]

On 7/13/2024 at 10:58 PM, Roman Alymov said:

{robasbly first good view of FAB-3000 with UMPK

https://t.me/milinfolive/125988

 

 

Essentially a glide bombe like the US GLSDB. Just air lauchned and with similar vulnerability to AD(where it exists in sufficient numers).

[Josh]

29 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

 

Essentially a glide bombe like the US GLSDB. Just air lauchned and with similar vulnerability to AD(where it exists in sufficient numers).

A better analogy would be the U.S. JDAM-ER, only several times as big as a kitted mk84.

[alejandro_]

Article from May 2023 on Su-25 Frogfoot delivered by Macedonia. It was published both on a maghazine and key.aero portal

EX-NORTH MACEDONIAN SU-25S FIGHTING RUSSIA 5/2023

Images OF an ex-North Macedonian Su-25 Frogfoot ground attack jet now being operated by the Ukrainian Air Force (UkrAF) appeared on social media on May 10 (2023). The jet carrying two fuel tanks and four five-tube B-13L rocket pods confirm that at least one of the four Su-25s North Macedonia donated to Kyiv in 2022 has been restored to an airworthy, combat-capable condition.

The single-seat aircraft (Bort No 'Blue 51) - complete with full UkrAF markings - was seen wearing the factory construction number 09015, which identifies the airframe as ex-North Macedonia Air Force Su-25 (formerly registered as '121) of 101 Aviation Squadron and previously based at Petrovec Air Base (AB), near Skopje. This aircraft, together with three more Frogfoots-single-seat Su-25s'122' and '123', and dual-seat Su-25UB'120'-and related spare parts, tools and weapons were donated to Kyiv, together with a variety of other military equipment of Soviet origin.

According to social media channels, the freshly restored Su-25 passed a general overhaul and was upgraded to the Su-25M1(K)- standard before it joined the UkrAF's 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade (BrTA) 'Lt Gen Vasyl Nikiforov. This unit is tasked with providing close air support for Ukrainian ground forces and the Ukrainian Navy. It operates two Su-25 squadrons and a squadron of L-39 Albatros jet trainers that operated from Kulbakino AB, near Mykolaiv, before the Russian invasion began.

Frogfoots from the 299th BrTA were heavily used against insurgent forces during the War in Donbas (2014-2022) and during Ukraine's subsequent war with Russia. A significant number of aircraft have already been lost, some of which were put out-of-action when Kulbakino was attacked by Russian forces on the opening day of the conflict.

The Su-25s donated by North Macedonia were the first full-blooded combat jets to be donated to Ukraine by a NATO member state and the war-torn nation has managed to restore these aircraft and put them back into operational use against Russian forces.

When delivered to Ukraine, these aircraft had been out-of-service for almost 20 years and were in a poor technical condition, having been stored outside for the most part. It was widely believed that Kyiv would only use these aircraft as a source of precious spare parts. Its unclear where this aircraft was restored because much of Ukraine's aircraft repair and maintenance facilities has been heavily bombed, damaged and some even totally destroyed in the ongoing war. This was very likely achieved with significant support provided by NATO nations that have previously operated Soviet-sourced weapons and maintained such military techniques. Igor Bozinovski

This ex-North Macedonia Air Force Su-25 Frogfoot, Bort No 'Blue 51', was donated to Kyiv by Skopje in mid-2022 and has since been restored to an airworthy condition to support Ukrainian combat operations. The aircraft is seen here, still in North Macedonian markings, in storage at Petrovec AB, North Macedonia, in September 2006 Igor Bozinovski

https://www.key.aero/article/ukraine-restores-ex-north-macedonian-su-25-help-fight-russia#:~:text=The Su-25s donated by,operational use against Russian forces.

[txtree99]

 

[Yama]

2 hours ago, txtree99 said:

There seems to be around 5 arrivals, one can clearly see how ATACMS body lands before the cluster munitions. 

This time I see no missiles being fired in return, or secondary explosions, so this might have been a decoy site; although one cannot ever rule out an unit being caught unprepared. Possibly some other items were already targeted before the drone video, as some large object or area seems to be burning fiercely near the elements shown attacked.

[Soldier36]

Russian engineers have tested an ultra-fast FPV drone. The drone has 8 engines and can reach speeds of up to 400 km/h. Technical details and the name of the drone model have not yet been announced.

 

 

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

There seems to be around 5 arrivals, one can clearly see how ATACMS body lands before the cluster munitions. 

This time I see no missiles being fired in return, or secondary explosions, so this might have been a decoy site; although one cannot ever rule out an unit being caught unprepared. Possibly some other items were already targeted before the drone video, as some large object or area seems to be burning fiercely near the elements shown attacked.

Hard to tell given the way the video was cut. Certainly some things seemed to be burning. I never noticed that the missile body hits the ground before the sub munitions before.

[bojan]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

...I never noticed that the missile body hits the ground before the sub munitions before.

With ATACMS body keeps going on original path and most of the original speed while submunition is slowed down by spread. That is same way with Iskander and reverse of Tochka, where body will start to tumble after dispersal of submunition as it loses aerodynamic stability.

[Perun]

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Czech Republic has supplied Ukraine with over 30,000 units of RPG-75M anti-tank self-propelled grenade launchers. Radoslav Moravec, executive director of ZEVETA Bojkovice, the leading manufacturer of these weapons, confirmed this substantial contribution.

Ukrainian soldiers operate Czech-made RPG-75M rocket-propelled grenade launchers.  (Picture source: X)

https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2024/czech-republic-delivers-more-than-30-000-rpg-75m-rocket-launchers-to-ukraine

[alejandro_]

The Czech company Česká zbrojovka and the joint-stock company "Ukrainian Defense Industry" (former "Ukroboronprom") have signed an agreement on the supply of all parts for CZ BREN 2 rifles to Ukraine.

As reported by "European Truth", the company Colt CZ Group, to which Česká zbrojovka belongs, reported this in a press release for the CTK news agency; the press service of the "Ukrainian Defense Industry" also disseminated the relevant information .

According to the contract, the amount of which has not been disclosed, Česká zbrojovka will supply Ukraine with all the parts from which the CZ BREN 2 rifles are assembled.

"This first step in the full technology transfer project for the CZ BREN 2 rifle is directly related to its successful deployment on the Ukrainian battlefield in the hands of the Ukrainian armed forces," commented the CEO of the Czech company, Jan Zajic.

The CZ BREN 2 rifles are used in particular by the Czech Army and comply with NATO standards. They have also been used on the battlefield by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the armies and combat units of France, Portugal, Poland and Romania.

The CZ BREN 2 is claimed by the manufacturer to be a universal weapon that is highly compatible with other NATO weapons.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Czech Republic has sent 62 tanks, 131 infantry fighting vehicles, six helicopters and 16 air defense systems from its warehouses to Kyiv. For this, it has received about 750 million euros in compensation.

As reported, the Czech state arms company VOP CZ  has still not started repairing T-64 tanks  for the Ukrainian army, which was agreed upon last year, since the Ukrainian side has not yet delivered a single tank.

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2024/02/23/7180338/

According to ukrainian sources CZ BREN 2 has been on of the most effective Western assault rifles. See interview with Ukrainian weapon instructor and armorer.

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/47806-war-in-ukraine-technical-and-military-aspects-only/page/289/

[Soldier36]

Forbes magazine reported Russia's superiority in artillery in the war in Ukraine. As Forbes notes, Russia and Ukraine have different strategies, but there is one aspect that remains the same: both sides rely heavily on artillery. In this area, Russia has a clear advantage. According to Forbes, Russian troops fire approximately 10,000 rounds per day, while Ukrainian forces fire about 2,000. Russia uses a combination of Soviet-era self-propelled guns, such as the 2S19 Msta-S, and newer systems, notably the 2S33 Msta -SM2". In addition, Russia has established production of up to 250 thousand shells per month. Now on the battlefield, the Russian army uses not only artillery systems designed in the USSR, but also those already developed in Russia. Ukraine uses Soviet self-propelled guns, one of them is the 2S3 Akatsiya, and new self-propelled guns provided by NATO are the American M109 Paladin self-propelled guns, the British AS-90 and the French CAESAR. Forbes reported that such a large number of different equipment has become a problem for Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is heavily dependent on supplies of shells for Western equipment, which it does not produce itself.

 

 

[alejandro_]

Mr Luzin reckons that Russia’s ability to build new tanks or infantry fighting vehicles, or even to refurbish old ones, is hampered by the difficulty of getting components. Stores of components for tank production that before the war were intended for use in 2025 have already been raided, while crucial equipment, such as fuel-heaters for diesel engines, high-voltage electrical systems and infrared thermal imaging to identify targets, were all previously imported from Europe and their sale is now blocked by sanctions. The lack of high-quality ball bearings is also a constraint. Chinese alternatives are sometimes available, but are said not to meet former quality standards.
Furthermore, the old Soviet armaments supply chain no longer exists. Ukraine, Georgia and East Germany were all important centres of weapons and components manufacture. Ironically, Kharkiv was the main producer of turrets for t-72 tanks. The number of workers in the military-industrial complex has also fallen dramatically, says Mr Luzin, from about 10m to 2m, without any offsetting step-change in automation.

Another major concern is artillery-barrel production. For now, with the help of North Korea, Russia appears to have enough shells, probably about 3m this year—sufficient to outgun the Ukrainians until recently by at least 5:1 and sometimes by much more. But the downside of such high rates of fire has been the wear and tear on barrels. In some highly contested areas, the barrels of howitzers need replacing after only a few months.

Yet, says Mr Luzin, there are only two factories that have the sophisticated Austrian-made rotary forging machines (the last one was imported in 2017) needed to make the barrels. They can each produce only around 100 barrels a year, compared with the thousands needed. Russia has never made its own forging machines; they imported them from America in the 1930s and looted them from Germany after the war.

The solution has been to cannibalise the barrels from old towed artillery and fit them to self-propelled howitzers. Richard Vereker, an open-source analyst, thinks that by the start of this year about 4,800 barrels had been swapped out. How long the Russians can carry on doing this depends on the condition of the 7,000 or so that may be left. Mr Gjerstad says that with multi-launch rocket systems, such as the tos-1a, eking out barrel life has already meant much shorter bursts of fire.

But the biggest emerging problem is with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, which are still crucial to any offensive ground operations at scale. Although the iiss estimated that in February of this year Russia may have had about 3,200 tanks in storage to draw on, Mr Gjerstad says up to 70% of them “have not moved an inch since the beginning of the war”. A large proportion of the t-72s have been stored uncovered since the early 1990s and are probably in very poor condition. Both Mr Golts and Mr Luzin reckon that at current rates of attrition, Russian tank and infantry vehicle refurbishment from storage will have reached a “critical point of exhaustion” by the second half of next year.

Unless something changes, before the end of this year Russian forces may have to adjust their posture to one that is much more defensive, says Mr Gjerstad. It could even become apparent before the end of summer. Expect Mr Putin’s interest in agreeing a temporary ceasefire to increase. 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/07/16/russias-vast-stocks-of-soviet-era-weaponry-are-running-out?utm_medium=social-media.content.np&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_content=discovery.content

Some of the companies that used to manufacture 2A46M guns have moved on, but I don't think you need the latest equipment to manufcture them or other models. In any case, having 2 factories is not bad when other countries like the UK lost this capacity a few years ago.