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War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only


bojan

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6 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The point is that prior to the war, the Russians were going down the wrong path on their military thinking.  The war has given them hard lessons, and they are now focused on expanding their capabilities and force structure in a way that is to the maximal disadvantage of NATO.   Even worse, these lessons are being transferred to Russia's allies in realtime, all of which whom are feverishly adapting as well.  None of this is to say that this is a one-sided race.  But 3 years ago, it wasn't much of a race at all, now everyone one of America's self-made enemies is running at breakneck speed, whereas before, they were casually walking.

 

Not maximum disadvantage: huge money are still wasted on expencive (and, probably, useless) things like nuclear submarines, surface navy etc. Strategic bombers are also of questionable use. Much more optimal way is NK/Iran way of ground launchers covered in trucks etc.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

Use more submunitions? 

My guess is that it’s off by several dozen meters. If it’s off by 100 meters or more, even submunitions use wouldn’t be as impactful 

Plus submunitions are good at certain things like infantry and light vehicles, but not against hardened targets, which is what HIMARs and JDAMs are primarily hitting  

Edited by crazyinsane105
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1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

Use more submunitions? 

= heavier warhead = shorter range with same dimensions of rocket/missile or larger rocket for same range.

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7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

They don't seem concerned about depleted uranium ammunition?

May be with Bradley DU shells fired around (not to mention constant danger of drone or HIMARS or artillery shell) DU dust from burned out wreck is not seen as danger....

   Even in Moscow, no prorective measures visible (may be because nobody knows about such danger)

 

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1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

Use more submunitions? 

= heavier warhead = shorter range with same dimensions of rocket/missile or larger rocket for same range.

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20 minutes ago, bojan said:

= heavier warhead = shorter range with same dimensions of rocket/missile or larger rocket for same range.

Yes, it's not a free lunch but particularly missiles got plenty of range. Ukraine just didn't get the versions with the longest range for a long time. 

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59 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

My guess is that it’s off by several dozen meters. If it’s off by 100 meters or more, even submunitions use wouldn’t be as impactful 

Plus submunitions are good at certain things like infantry and light vehicles, but not against hardened targets, which is what HIMARs and JDAMs are primarily hitting  

It depends what is being used and how big of a bang or submunition pattern it creates. ATACMs have 300 to 1000 submunitions depending on version; the older ones don’t even use GPS. Ditto the CBU-87s with “wind correction “: INS only with a couple hundred submissions with six release altitudes varying from a 30x30 meter area to like 200x300.

But something like the small diameter bomb is going to need accuracy to make all of 40 lbs HE count; it’s basically an especially energetic 8”/203mm shell.

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43 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

May be with Bradley DU shells fired around (not to mention constant danger of drone or HIMARS or artillery shell) DU dust from burned out wreck is not seen as danger....

   Even in Moscow, no prorective measures visible (may be because nobody knows about such danger)

 

I can’t imagine DU is even useful or necessary, though I know it was supplied.

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2 hours ago, bojan said:

= heavier warhead = shorter range with same dimensions of rocket/missile or larger rocket for same range.

Also heavier rocket and slower and easier to intercept with Russian air defense.

Probably another why HIMAR is losing it’s effectiveness is that Russian Pantsir and updated Buks are able to shoot them effectively 

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1 hour ago, Josh said:

It depends what is being used and how big of a bang or submunition pattern it creates. ATACMs have 300 to 1000 submunitions depending on version; the older ones don’t even use GPS. Ditto the CBU-87s with “wind correction “: INS only with a couple hundred submissions with six release altitudes varying from a 30x30 meter area to like 200x300.

But something like the small diameter bomb is going to need accuracy to make all of 40 lbs HE count; it’s basically an especially energetic 8”/203mm shell.

True, but how often are Russians utilizing tightly packed armored formations these days where using ATACM with submunitions is worth it? 

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6 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

True, but how often are Russians utilizing tightly packed armored formations these days where using ATACM with submunitions is worth it? 

ATACMs is not really anti tank oriented; it’s more soft area targets. Ukraine seems to focus them on airfields and SAM sites. The point is simply some weapons will suffer more than others in a GPS denied area. Large explosives like the Russian 1500kg glide bombs or wide area cluster dispensers like ATACMs might be largely unaffected.

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9 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Not maximum disadvantage: huge money are still wasted on expencive (and, probably, useless) things like nuclear submarines, surface navy etc. Strategic bombers are also of questionable use. Much more optimal way is NK/Iran way of ground launchers covered in trucks etc.

Submarines are still one of the best survivable assets Russia has. It’s not a waste that they are still being prioritized. USN is spending an ungodly amount to maintain the existing fleet and build ones.

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8 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

May be with Bradley DU shells fired around (not to mention constant danger of drone or HIMARS or artillery shell) DU dust from burned out wreck is not seen as danger....

   Even in Moscow, no prorective measures visible (may be because nobody knows about such danger)

 

Nice to see the people gathering to see the success of their soldiers. I hope they will pressure the government to start fighting the war for real.

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1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Submarines are still one of the best survivable assets Russia has. It’s not a waste that they are still being prioritized. USN is spending an ungodly amount to maintain the existing fleet and build ones.

Submarines are best survivable when at high seas. In Russian case, they will be destroyed in harbors/bases or at exiting their bases, by surprise attack by diversion groups, cruise missiles, drones and pre-positioned NATO submarines.

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3 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Submarines are still one of the best survivable assets Russia has. It’s not a waste that they are still being prioritized. USN is spending an ungodly amount to maintain the existing fleet and build ones.

They are arguably are being prioritized, the problem is , they take forever to build the damn things. Yasen was laid down in 1993, and only entered service 11 years later. Which seems to be about par for the course of the rest of the class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yasen-class_submarine

Compare that with the Virginias, which are entering service at a rate of one every 3 or 4 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine

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Very interesting article on manufacturing of UAVs in Ukraine:

There are currently 75 people working on the production line, which begins by pressing fiberglass mesh into molds shaped like wings, tails and noses. After 11 hours of curing in the oven, the parts are assembled to make a small aircraft with a 2m wingspan. The engine and explosives are installed at another plant.

The factory can only produce one or two bodies of each type of drone per day. To increase capacity, the businessman recently purchased a second polymerization oven. He plans to expand the premises and hire 50 more people to work two shifts.

At the same time, he is developing his own drone model with a planned range of more than 1,000 km.

According to one drone manufacturer, manufacturing costs range from $30,000 to $300,000 per unit. But this is still significantly less than the cost of a cruise missile.

According to a Ukrainian military intelligence officer who was involved in the drone launches, only about 20% of them reach their target due to Russian obstacles.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/04/30/7453571/

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Posted (edited)

Closeup of an Abrams, might be one of those destroyed earlier.

 

Edited by TonyE
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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, TonyE said:

Closeup of an Abrams, might be one of those destroyed earlier.

A few days ago Russian units were seen towing a second one. There should be others left in no man's land, but nothing dramatic.
 

Regarding the possible acquisition of retired MiGs in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan denies trade in decommissioned military aircraft

May 2, 2024, AEX.RU – The Kazakh enterprise Kazspecexport , operating in the field of arms import and export, denied information that appeared on social networks about the sale of decommissioned aircraft equipment abroad. Interfax reports this .

"The information disseminated on the Internet does not correspond to reality. All auctions for the sale of aircraft with the condition of mandatory liquidation were conducted by the enterprise in strict accordance with the requirements of the current legislation among legal entities of the Republic of Kazakhstan that have the appropriate licenses issued by the authorized body. Foreign companies were not allowed to bid ", says the Kazspecexport message.

The recycling process is completely controlled by the balance holders.

“In accordance with the terms of the concluded agreements, all aircraft, components and assemblies for it will be disposed of on the territory of the balance holders by cutting (cutting, crushing) and other methods that exclude their restoration to their original condition, and will be removed from the territory only in the form of scrap non-ferrous metals ", the message says.

The Kazspetsexport enterprise was created by the government of Kazakhstan in order to provide the Armed Forces, other troops and military formations of the republic and works in the areas of import and export of weapons and military equipment, as well as military property.

https://www.aex.ru/news/2024/5/2/270882/

Edited by alejandro_
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4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

They are arguably are being prioritized, the problem is , they take forever to build the damn things.

That is dependent on what yardstick you use - for example, last year Rus Navy got two new nuclear-powered submarines.  How many new toys of that class Royal Navy have recieved in 2023?

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8 hours ago, TonyE said:

Closeup of an Abrams, might be one of those destroyed earlier.

Well that one's barrel is properly depressed for show, why didn't the Russians drag off this?

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Footage of work in Ukraine of an unknown Russian electronic warfare system installed on armored vehicles. In the video, the Ukrainian FPV drone loses contact with the operator and flies past the target, after which it sharply dives down

 

 

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15 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

They are arguably are being prioritized, the problem is , they take forever to build the damn things. Yasen was laid down in 1993, and only entered service 11 years later. Which seems to be about par for the course of the rest of the class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yasen-class_submarine

Compare that with the Virginias, which are entering service at a rate of one every 3 or 4 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine

New generation of American subs are guaranteed to take really, really long. Not to mention mighty expensive 

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